The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[KenchiSulla]

Good luck sitting through the replay later!

Of course, John might just turn away...

[Canoerebel]

Very funny, Moosester.

Thanks for reading and weighting in, gents. From the beginning yesterday, I was inclined to offer battle. I gave it a full day's thought, especially after reading some of your comments. I came close to scrubbing it late in the day, meaning I value your opinions. But ultimately a strong gut feeling was the deciding factor.

This screenshot shows where the Death Star is ordered to take station. The CV TFs are following the BB Indiana TF. All are set to "React 0." But we all know how reliable that feature is.

I think John will do one of three things: (1) retire west or southwest - 50% to 60% likely; (2) move a bit to the north or northeast - 30% to 40% likely; or (3) move strongly NE - perhaps 10% likely.

John probably doesn't think I'll offer battle. But I think he'll project that, if I were to, I'd station my CVs close to Trincomalee. So the orders given were in an effort to close the range a bit more so that (hopefully) John can't work the magic "8-hex" trick on the Alies (assuming that's still in play in AE, and I think it is).

John and his boys went to Star Wars Thursday night (good for Daddy!). I kind of expect a turn sometime this morning (perhaps in three or four hours, my time).

[Encircled]

Good to see you back in the saddle and its always nice to read your AARs, even though you are an AFB![;)]

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Encircled. John sent an email early this morning advising no turn anytime soon today due to his work schedule. He might run the turn this evening, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's not until late tonight or tomorrow morning. So I can relax and not think a bit about precious assets in harm's way.

[zuluhour]

I'm guessing a lot is spotted from Port Blair?

[Canoerebel]

I've had Port Blair more or less shut down since the campaign began, though of late I'm beginning to see a little nav. search activity. John's nav. search has been very spotty in the Bay of Bengal, leaving him more in the dark than I am. (However, if I go into the boxing ring with a blind Mike Tyson, he's not the one that's going to get hurt.)

[ny59giants]

John sent an email early this morning advising no turn anytime soon today due to his work schedule. He might run the turn this evening, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's not until late tonight or tomorrow morning. So I can relax and not think a bit about precious assets in harm's way.

Who's turn gets done first today?? Both have KB active.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, good question. My hunch is that John will run yours first unless he is indeed offering battle in my game. But if he's withdrawing the KB in my game, then he'll want to see your turn first!

As soon as the Battle of Sumatra is settled in my game (which could be as soon as this turn), things will slow down drastically. In fact, I think the next six months will be one yawn after another. So my game will probably become secondary, I would think, which is fine since I'm the late arrival.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for reading and weighting in, gents. From the beginning yesterday, I was inclined to offer battle. I gave it a full day's thought, especially after reading some of your comments. I came close to scrubbing it late in the day, meaning I value your opinions. But ultimately a strong gut feeling was the deciding factor.

This screenshot shows where the Death Star is ordered to take station. The CV TFs are following the BB Indiana TF. All are set to "React 0." But we all know how reliable that feature is.

You should always trust your gut before your readers. [:D]

I really, really hope I am/was overly pessimistic and I´ll keep my fingers crossed for you. [:)]

[Lecivius]

I am terrified of saying something incredibly stupid (which I do constantly) and breaking OpSec (which I don't 'think' I have ever done), as I read all the AAR's. So I didn't say anything. But factoring in any reaction variables he has, range gates, and options available to John I believe you have a 47% +/- 5% chance of engaging him. Your biggest hurdles will be getting LBA to cover you, and his more advanced fighter frames. Balanced against that is you can replace losses, he cannot. So that would lend weight to your decision to engage in any event.

I'm glad you followed your gut. I would have done the same. Now all we can do is sit back & ride the lightning [8D]

[KenchiSulla]

"taps food impatiently"

I think I actually wanted to say foot here...

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

"taps food impatiently"

[:D] +1

[Canoerebel]

John worked until 3 p.m. Mountain Time yesterday, which is 5 p.m. my time. I figured he wouldn't run the turn until late in the night or even today sometmie. I left work around 6:15 p.m. I don't have internet access at home, so I "went dark from then until I arrived at work a few minutes ago." In my inbox is a turn from John that arrived at 6:15 yesterday afternoon. John wrote only this: "You—Sir—could have won the war this turn!"

I'm about to run the turn now. More in awhile.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John worked until 3 p.m. Mountain Time yesterday, which is 5 p.m. my time. I figured he wouldn't run the turn until late in the night or even today sometmie. I left work around 6:15 p.m. I don't have internet access at home, so I "went dark from then until I arrived at work a few minutes ago." In my inbox is a turn from John that arrived at 6:15 yesterday afternoon. John wrote only this: "You—Sir—could have won the war this turn!"

I'm about to run the turn now. More in awhile.

Talk about a cliffhanger! [X(]

I´ll get a beer and some snacks!

[KenchiSulla]

It sounds like he is saying a lot with that sentence, but maybe he isn't.....

These are the turns where your heart is in your throat and your SO is wondering why you are so nervous...

[Canoerebel]

I just ran the movie. It was a good day for the Allies overall, but not decisive. There was a carrier battle, of sorts, but nothing decisive. So I'm not sure why John thinks it was decisive. I'll post detals later, but here's the bottom line:

1. Several turns ago, I spotted the IJN AO TF lingering behind the KB and well to the west of Sabang. John withdrew the TF, but I vectored some combat ships towards where I hoped they might be - nothing more than throwing a few darts while blindfolded. Well, a nice TF flagged by CLAA Santa Fe found them today, sinking three or four fleet AOs and some escorts. This is probably the one thing that most bothered John.

2. There were four or five more encounters between small Allied combat ships and the KB, with CLs Columbia and Sumatra mixing it up with Zuikaku and Shokaku on multiple occassions. No major harm done, but more shell hits registered on IJN fleet carriers. I also lost several DDs to later KB air strikes.

3. My carriers must've ended up 8 or 9 hexes from KB (I'll post screen later). My carriers didn't react - probably the first time they've ever oboyed that order in my WitP/AE career. John's carriers flew two strikes - a decent sized one in the AM and a smaller one in the PM. The distance was too great for any Allied strike aircraft to sortie. This may have been a great blessing, because it kept all Allied fighters at home and available for CAP. Meanwhile, the IJN aircraft weren't able to carry torps. The AM strike got chewed up by CAP and flak and didn't score any hits on Allied ships. The PM strike, though much smaller, did penetrate the CAP. Four Kate-carried bombs hit Wasp, doing moder damae (41 SYS, 21 FLT, etc.). The damage was enough to divert Wasp's aircraft to Trincomalee.

4. On the day, I think the KB lost 100 aircraft. The Allies lost just five or so F4Fs. I probably can't afford to go hunting, though. If John is down 100 (or, say, 150 with the extra 50 being damaged and unavailable), I'm down Wasp's contingent. So the odds are better than yesterday, but still not that good. John will almost certainly retire, meaning I'd have to give chase, meaning many of the intangibles I relied on in the decision to give battle are reduced considerably.

5. A four DD Allied TF west of Soerabaja savaged two small IJN merchant TFs. Not a huge deal, but it probably added to John's impression that the Allies were striking blows from every direction.

6. John stood down his Tojos and didn't hit Sabang, which had no figher cover (I stood down the USAAF this turn)!

7. All fleeing ships that headed west from Sumatra registered very high detection but no enemy aircraft sortied. Some of these will vector after that AO TF. Most will flee west, either making for the map edge or Diego (John might well send his carriers sprinting this way in hopes of picking off some of these ships - he knows that stuff like AE and AKE are in the bunch).

A good turn for the Allies. It probably takes the KB out of offensive operations for awhile. But it really doesn't change the equation regarding Sabang. The one thing that might prolong things a bit is that I might be able to once again utilize my carrier air defending Sabang, and John's Tojos apparently can't manage sustained operations. So there is a small glimmer of hope that the Allies can contest the air at Sabang for awhile yet.

[KenchiSulla]

Since you sank most of his tanker support, I don't think it is likely John will sprint anywhere.. He has no battleships and all fuel for the smaller vessels will have to come from the carriers.

How many aircraft from KB sortied?

[jwolf]

I can imagine that losing the AO ships really hurts Japan's flexibility. That may have been a much worse outcome than losing his 100 planes in the air strikes.

[Canoerebel]

Indeed, John hates losing AOs. When it comes to carriers and aggressive raiding, he's the John Bell Hood of the AE community. Attritioning his fleet replenishment ships strikes at his psyche.

But as I look at the map, I wonder if his his biggest concern is his carriers. For some reason, John kept his CVLs (Mini KB) split from the KB. He's sent them over to Port Blair for reasons that make sense to him. One possibility is that very badly damaged BB Mutsu has been stuck there for months. Perhaps the CVLs are meant to shepherd her back to safety? If so, that's a crazy mission - not only is a single BB not worth it, but dividing his carriers amidst enemy bases and carriers is very risky. (So perhaps John had another reason that makes more sense.)

So his carriers are divided and he perceives that now the KB is stuck between the Death Star, such as it is, and Sabang. He'll probably want to retire, but he it might take two turns - he'll want to combine KB and Mini KB. He won't want to get too close to Sabang, fearing massive LBA presence (for that reason, he might order big strikes on Sabang tomorrow). So his carriers will probably rendezvous somewhere not far to the SW of where KB sits now. He'll be worried that the attrition to his aircraft will leave him vulnerable.

But I don't think I dare give battle without Wasp. I think I'm better off vectoring in combat ships and subs and letting my carriers move west into the IO. I will move Beauforts and some SBDs to Sabang (I can't move too many of the latter on the offchance that John sends the KB hunting - unlikely but not impossible).

[Canoerebel]

Another possibility is that Johns carriers are low on fuel and that the damage to the AOs (and possibility of more to come) leaves the KB in a situation where refueling is problematic. The closest high-fuel source will be Batavia/Palembang unless he chances the Malacca Straits (highly unlikely) or has some fuel at Rangoon or vicinity. If he's desperate for fuel, he should flood the IO west of Sumatra with xAKs to replenish?