The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Crackaces]

The behavior I have observed is:

Float damage occurs
Program checks for a threshold
Flt > Threshold -- > change homeport to nearest port start in that direction

A lot of consquental things are happening and I could be way off .. for example, I see float damange increasing therefore I am assuming this is the trigger for the code to change my home port status .. if somebody could comment that they have seen this behavior without float damage increasing it would blw my assumptions out of the water so to speak [8D] What is interesting is my observation is that threat of the move is not checked that I could see when I encoutered this problem. That is in the case I encoutered this behavior (purposely not calling it a problem as I do not know the expected behavior..) my BB turned toward the nearest port and was slaughtered by land based air rather than keep away ...

So in summary I am assuming is that increasing float damage is reentering loop to redirect toward a close port? Only somebody like Micheal M can look at this for sure ..

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The behavior I have observed is:

Float damage occurs
Program checks for a threshold
Flt > Threshold -- > change homeport to nearest port start in that direction

A lot of consquental things are happening and I could be way off .. for example, I see float damange increasing therefore I am assuming this is the trigger for the code to change my home port status .. if somebody could comment that they have seen this behavior without float damage increasing it would blw my assumptions out of the water so to speak [8D] What is interesting is my observation is that threat of the move is not checked that I could see when I encoutered this problem. That is in the case I encoutered this behavior (purposely not calling it a problem as I do not know the expected behavior..) my BB turned toward the nearest port and was slaughtered by land based air rather than keep away ...

So in summary I am assuming is that increasing float damage is reentering loop to redirect toward a close port? Only somebody like Micheal M can look at this for sure ..

My impression is that it is not an increase in flood, but an absolute threshold like 40% or 50%. System damage may be factored into it too, so that 40% with little system damage does not trigger the run for port whereas 40% floatation damage plus 30% system damage would trigger such a change in routing.
I have not written down my observations but I am quite certain I have seen ships run for port with float damage just above 40%. Since I started putting most TFs on Direct/Absolute routing I have only seen the behaviour when the AI forms an Escort TF with routing changed to normal and damage quite high - in the 70s or so for either system or float. I guess even risk-taking skippers have their limits. [:D]

[JeffroK]

[:D]
I see in The War Room that JIII doesnt like his beloved CV being given a smack.

[:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]

In his next mod KB will get armoured decks and 15" guns.

[zuluhour]

surprised there are no catapult launched cherry blossoms hanging in up on the third deck.

[JeffroK]

They appear in 1944.

[Canoerebel]

1/11/43

Battle of Sumatra: More waves of Tojos result in a standoff, 1:1 losses (roughly 20 each, with most of the Allied casualties in the form of Navy F4Fs). The forward Allied army has consolidated at Medan in preparation for retiring a hex into the jungle. I'm moving forward about 50 F4Fs to cover Langa tomorrow, hoping to bushwhack unescorted bombers. More F4Fs moved from Ramree to Sabang. I'm still trying to gauge whether there's a chance the Allies can continue to contest the air. I won't know for certain until I see if John can maintain almost daily massed sweeps of the base. If he can do so, the Battle will end by the end of the month. If he can't sustain the losses he's taking, then I can drag things out.

Battle of Burma: The Allies will try a probing attack near Magwe tomorrow. John stood down his airforce after the big losses he took yesterday.

Flight of the Chicks: Nearly all ships ordered to retire from Sabang to Capetown have now exited the map.

Saga of the HMS Ramilles: The computer deems Socatra a worthy target and thus allows Ramilles to limp that way. Eventually I'll give another shot to moving her to Capetown.

[Canoerebel]

1/12/43

Battle of Sumatra: Another fine day in the air for the Allies, who hold their own against Tojo sweeps over Sabang and knock down quite a few bombers over Langsa. The Allied Army at Medan is retiring in decent order. Some units (tanks mainly) will make the jungle tomorrow. The bigger infantry units might take three or four days - enough for John's army to arrive and attack. Not sure what shape my army will be in when it all gets into the jungle, but I think the Allies will be strong enough to fight this battle for quite some time. Two AA units are inbound from India - don't know yet if I'll be able to get them in with so much going on.

Fleeing Chicks: Part (all?) of the KB is nearing Diego Garcia - John hoping to pick off fleeing chicks. Nearly all have exited the map edge now with just one or two laggards in harm's way.

Ramilles and Waps: Ramillies is still making steam for Socatra. Wasp should exit the map tomorrow or next day in preparation for repairs at Capetown.

Battle of Burma: The Allies really mess up Japanese air attacks on Ramree Island.

Air War: On the day, the Allies knock down Japanese aircraft at 4:1 or better, downing 100+ and losing about 25. I don't think I lost any P-39s or P-38s at Sabang and just a handful of P-40Ks. But I did lose roughly 20 F4Fs, which is worrisome. The Chinese even have a squadron of P-40Es at Sabang and they're doing a decent job.

[Canoerebel]

An interesting email from John III today that I want to share with you. As always, please don't warn John not to disclose things in emails (not that anybody would do so intentionally; but without a warning a forumite might do so accidentally).

John wrote an email that I think says alot when interpreted in conjunction with some current circumstances and the familiarity we have with each other. Here's what he wrote:

"This war is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO lost for Japan. You can see it and I can see it.

"Your assault was a stroke of brilliance. It has been costly and I had a bunch of momentum going on prior to the ending of the match but the re-start has been horrific. Four days of your shipping escaping (I had hoped for about 100 sunk ships and instead I got about 30) and my carriers wouldn’t fly a sortie. Just defied the imagination. Add to that Escort Fighters who don’t bother fighting opposing Allied fighters and one sees all sorts of trouble. Prediction: I will drive you back to Padang [he means Sabang] and then Stacking Limits will wreak havoc with you. In the meantime you will take Burma and life will look pretty bleak for Japan. Kudos for your future achievement."

First this is just a temporary state of mind induced by frustration. John will recover his equilibrium soon and procced to thrash the Allies in Sumatra in all likelihood.

But he does reveal quite a few things...assuming that his sentiments are genuine and not part of a maskirvoka. So which is it? I'm certain that he's being genuine. The most telling thing is that John's suddenly become very slow in flipping turns. Part of this is attributable to the holidays and his other games, but there's a definite pattern suggesting that he's tempoarily flummoxed and uncertain and probably ticked off by recent air battles. From my prior experience with John, I (and probably most of the forum) knows that when he's got something in the works, he flips turns fast and posts to his AAR frequently.

With that in mind, here's how his AAR helps me and what it tells me:

1. The Air War must be stumping him and he probably doesn't have present plans to try an end-round invasion of Sabang. Rather he intends to plod forward on the ground. The fact that the Air War is hurting tells me to keep fighting as long as I can possibly afford to do so. Right now I think I can for some time to come. (Eventually I expect him to employ the KB along with all land-based air in an effort to overwhelm in one single powerful thrust.)

2. Things may be more challenging for him in Burma than I realized. I've already upped the tempo of the Air War, but I'll really concentrate on using LBA to hit airfields and ground troops hoping to increase the places where John needs CAP.

3. I hadn't even thought about stacking limits at Sabang until John mentioned it. I'll have to give it some thought, but my initial reaction would be to disperse unneeded units to adjacent jungle hexes when the enemy nears the base.

I don't know how long the Allies can hold out or even if it's possible to stand long enough to eventually go back over to the offensive, thus keeping Sabang permanently. But right now I think the Allies can hold for a minimum of another month, maybe two.

[witpqs]

When you say:

With that in mind, here's how his AAR helps me and what it tells me:

I take it you mean his "email"?

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I meant his email.

[jwolf]

Very cool to read the Psy War along with the actual Combat War. I'm not in position to offer game advice, but keep up the great writing! [8D]

[ny59giants]

Since your game resumed, the rate of turns between John and I have decreased to one a day and occasional two per day. I told him doing three PBEMs, two AARs, running Subway, and having a family is a lot to deal with. I'm glad his wife is understanding. We had three phone calls today while I was driving from family to family and then home. I know in our game (late Nov 42) he is frustrated with the lack of success in the Air War. The P-38s in sweep are devastating him. [:D] In Burma, he is in hit and run mode with his fighters. Mr Tojo is not the uber-fighter like it is in stock which doesn't help his morale. Right now he is winning the naval war and while he is over at Diego Garcia with you, he is headed to SE corner map edge chasing my warships and transports off the map to Port Stanley. Putting my counselor's hat on here, he does take the naval side of AE to heart more than land or air part of the game. KB didn't do what he expected, so he is a little depressed right now.

[JocMeister]

I think you are right about keeping the pressure on. Obviously you have him frustrated! [:)]

As Micheal says he is probably disappointed KB didn´t smash everything in the IO to pieces. His usual response to any allied threat is usually to send the KB in guns blazing and now that didn´t work. I´m not so sure Sumatra is doomed. You have terrain and SLs working for you. If you can get 2-3 IDs into Sumatra together with a lot of AA I think you have a decent chance at holding. John has never had much interest in ground combat and I think he lacks patience for the process of grinding the allies down. China is good proof of this as John always do very badly there.

I think if you can beat off 3-4 big attacks here John will lose interest and probably stop trying.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/43

Battle of Sumatra: No air attacks on Sabang today. I think the Allies can stand here under the current model (a day or two of IJ attacks followed by a day or two of rest). John will have to do something different, like massing LBA and naval air or first trying to bombard the base from sea. The latter is problematic for him due to the number of mines (960) plus subs. So he's leary of that for the moment.

On the ground, the Allies are retiring in fairly good order to Langsa. I think I'll have 1300 to 1500 AV in the jungle. That should be a tough nut for John to crack. He has at least seven divisions present, but quite a few of them have been chewed up in previous attacks on the island.

KB remains well to the west of Sabang. All fleeing chicks have exited the map edge, so he has no potential victims out there. CV Wasp is 14 days out of Capetown now.

John should reclaim Medan in a day or two or three. That will retore his oil flow from the base. The oil production is pretty stout and has been flowing to Sabang, keeping my ships in good shape. I wish I could hold Medan, but it's clear terrain and too remote to allow even creative air defense. Better to err on the side of trying to maintain a strong lodgement in northern Sumatra, which I think is possible though not probable. John can probably win this campaign though it's not as hopeless as I thought a week or two ago.

The key things in the Battle of Sumatra thus far have been two: the ability and willingness to employ carrier fighters (they've made a huge difference) and the quality of the Allied fighter pilot corps. Nearly all Allied fighter pilots have reached elite status, meaning even P-39s, P-40Es, and even Chinese P-40Es are effective. The F4Fs are good. The P-40Ks and P-38Gs are flat robust. I just wish I had more of the latter.

A troop convoy carrying two AA units will arrive at Sabang in two days or so. It's in harm's way, but the window seems most available now, with KB just having departed. We'll see.

Battle of Burma: Japanese massed air attacks on the Allied army just south of Magwe don't do much. Allied 4EB hit the airfield at Magwe. 2EB, mostly B-25s, hit a Royal Thai regiment (1 Division/A) north of Magwe. I'm ramping up things in this theater in hopes that it might be possible to stretch John between Sumatra and Burma. I'm certainly stretched between the two, but perhaps I can work the same on him.

Elsewhere: As stated previously, lots of small steps underway. The Allies won't undertake any major operations for a long time to come but preparations and small steps have already started.

Game Pace: John is stretched having three games underway, as NYGiants noted above. I've just sent him an email encouraging him to make this game his lowest priority since it just resumed and shouldn't unfairly take his attention from the other two. Games have ebbs and flows - sometimes they hit lulls in activity, sometimes players go on vacation, etc. - I'm fine if John concentrates on the other two and uses this to fill in gaps in availability. But I'm also convinced that he's at a temporary loss about how to handle Sumatra. Once he comes up with a plan - might be 10 minutes, 10 days or a month - he'll be back at it.

[jwolf]

About your pilots and the air war: could this be your payoff for the 8 to 5 kill ratio during the first year? That is, many (??) of his better pilots have been lost in the brutal attrition while more of yours have survived, and that with good experience?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I think that's what's going on.

It's a razor-edge balancing act for the Allied player (at least in this Mod). By fighting hard, often, and effectively, Allied pilots have become elite. But aircraft pools are non-existent making it hard to fight. Is it worth it to have no plane pools in order to create elite pilots? Debatable. Is it possible to achieve elite status without draining plane pools? Maybe, but the results this far - 8.6K IJ planes downed to 5.7k Allied planes - are pretty impressive. I could do better, but probably not that much better.

If I played a game with similar dynamics in the future, I'd be hard pressed between whether to safeguard the pools or fight hard to bleed Japan and develop the fighter pilot corps.

In this game, John employs massed raids of bombers every turn in Sumatra and in Burma. Nearly all raids are heavily escorted by fighters. And he still has hundreds of fighters to employ in sweeps (and probably others to use for CAP, though I'm not as knowledgeable about that for reasons I'll describe in a moment).

In contrast, the Allies have to employ all fighters on CAP duty. I don't have many bombers to fly missions. When bombing missions are flown there are no fighters available for escort.

It's an imbalance that doesn't make sense to me from a competition standpoint. Of course, it's probably a byproduct of PDU on? Allied players want Japan to be much stronger than in the real war so that the competition is sharp and enjoyable deep into the war. So we willingly choose scenarios or mods that give the Japanese player alot of boosts. But the unintended consequence is that the air war is wildly skewed in '42 and '43. At least that's my impression. By late '42 I can take on Japan at sea and on the ground. But not in the air.

[Panther Bait]

I think one of the important points of the air war is for the Allies to fight where it's in their best interest and not just everywhere. Fighting defensively protects your pilots, increasing their skills, and attrites the Japanese fighter skills (even if you can't really dent their pools). As time moves on, that effect hopefully snowballs and increases your skills and decreases his.

Then when you start to get the really good Allied aircraft, you can hopefully expand further and further on that imbalance.

In any way, you seem to be doing it right in this game at least. Nice job.

Mike

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's an imbalance that doesn't make sense to me from a competition standpoint. Of course, it's probably a byproduct of PDU on? Allied players want Japan to be much stronger than in the real war so that the competition is sharp and enjoyable deep into the war. So we willingly choose scenarios or mods that give the Japanese player alot of boosts. But the unintended consequence is that the air war is wildly skewed in '42 and '43. At least that's my impression. By late '42 I can take on Japan at sea and on the ground. But not in the air.

Pax Mondo and others have insisted that Japan is not helping itself by overproducing fighters in PDU on. The argument is that Japan's reserves of supply must be used to support the troops in the field because there is simply not enough supply production to keep up with demand. In consequence, the Japanese economy can run out of supply reserves in 1944, perhaps earlier in your game.

I guess that means you should keep him fighting hard for a few more months if possible. Besides, it's good entertainment for the masses! [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I know that pilot training/pools can be an "enjoy now, pay later" conundrum for Japan.

But the problem is that the air war is so one-sided in '42 and '43 that the Allies have a tough time competing. Or, I should say, the Allies have historical numbers that are dwarfed by Japan's. Japan can do so vastly much more than the Allies. I'd prefer to have it more competitive in '42 and '43 in the air so that the Allies are somewhat competitive, while also giving Japan more from '43 to '45 to keep them more competitive then.

This imbalance may be an artifact only of this mod (which is based on a DaBabes IIRC) and PDU On, so it may be easily addressed by picking a better mix of scenario and PDU Off. I just went into this game rather blind, accepting both Mod and house rules without much thought. That's on me.

I think the Allies invasion of Sumatra was a smashing success in terms of both surprise and planning - the Allies brought gracious plenty of everything. With any kind of balance in the air war, the invasion would be a dagger in John's heart. He should pay for failing to adequately garrison such a critical area and for failing to keep up appropriate naval search. But the air war imbalance may allow him to largely escape a fate he deserves.

This is just a general analysis on my part as I contemplate what I'd look for in a game in the future. But, for now, I'm having an absolute blast with this game, warts, surprises, failures to understand what I was doing, and all. There's a glimmer of hope that the Allies will be able to hold Sumatra and make John pay for his mistakes. That's my objective: Make Him Pay! Make Him Pay! Make Him Pay!

[desicat]

He has already paid. It is Jan 43 and he is reacting to your invasion of Sumatra and is no longer expanding nor threatening the deep sea lanes with his offensive assets. He has lost the initiative and you know the approximate location of his most threatening forces.

His air losses are huge, Burma appears to be under-garrisoned, and he is burning fuel and supplies at a furious pace.

You are already in the beginning stages of planning your next leap forward while furiously holding on in Sumatra while he continues to react and tries to dig you out. He is going to have to scramble to sort things out over the next 3-4 months while you only get stronger. The whole thing is going to collapse upon him in early 44, he won't have the normal strategic depth to trade space for time.

You are going to continue to have a lot of fun with this.