Jorge's(A) crusade to the fabled kingdom of PresterJohn(J) DBB-C --- Allied AAR

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Time to start thinking on the 1st Allied offensive of 1943. Still early stages, but I want to put some ideas on paper:

By February 43, the Allied amphibious capabilities will be
- 3 LCI(L) each capable of carrying 1,200 troops and 900 cargo
- Around 18 APDs
- 2 useful AMCs that can't convert to LCI
- Around 20 LST

That means I could plan an invasion that is regiment-sized; 3 LCI + a few APDs can carry a Marine regiment. LSTs and APDs can deal with the supporting elements like amphibious tanks, tanks, pioneers, engineer equipment, base support

Going larger scale would require the use of AKs and APs. but I don't like the idea. Any invasion in early 43 will need to be quickly, hit and run.

Brigade size means I will need to pick a target that is not well protected. I am looking for bases that are defended by naval guards or special naval landing forces.
But then I need recon, which means I need to pick targets relatively close to the front. This works well because I also need speed and surprise.
I will write more on recon later, because I am in the middle of a nice re-organization of the few recon assets available.

The potentai candidates for this operation are:
- Santa Cruz Island
- Southern Salomons
- Gilberts
- Wake

Recon will be critical in picking the right one. I will actually pick 4 potential targets and set as objective for one Marine regiment each, this once recon gives me an idea of interesting targets.

[BBfanboy]

I guess Pt. Blair is too dangerous to be on your target list?

[Jorge_Stanbury]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I guess Pt. Blair is too dangerous to be on your target list?

I didn't think about Pt Blair... but the biggest challenge here is lack of recon... it is very far away from any Allied base.. And it is also a main base, basically his most important naval base on the Indian Ocean, and close to Rangoon, another big base.

Without recon, I don't know what kind of opposition I will face,

i would need the full Allied naval power to face it, certainly risky... the main bonus is that KB won't be there, with some luck he would rush his CVLs/ CVEs into a fight against the full Allied combo, and destroying a few CVLs are strategical gains, evem if the invasion fails

[IdahoNYer]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I guess Pt. Blair is too dangerous to be on your target list?

I didn't think about Pt Blair... but the biggest challenge here is lack of recon... it is very far away from any Allied base.. And it is also a main base, basically his most important naval base on the Indian Ocean, and close to Rangoon, another big base.

Without recon, I don't know what kind of opposition I will face,

i would need the full Allied naval power to face it, certainly risky... the main bonus is that KB won't be there, with some luck he would rush his CVLs/ CVEs into a fight against the full Allied combo, and destroying a few CVLs are strategical gains, evem if the invasion fails

Not being in range of LBA would indeed be pretty risky!!! What are you trying to accomplish with your first landing? Just starting on the road to Japan or an opportunity to defeat the IJN if he counter attacks? Targets within a heavy LBA umbrella can perhaps accomplish both...

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Objective is really first forays, gain some real estate, but gain lots of experience in amphibious operations. Experience that will be crucial for mid and late 43 when full escale invasions will be attempted. Increase Japanese losses is a good secondary objective. His losses, as you can see a few posts above, are minimal, destroyer excluded.
I am not planning to fight the KB under the uncertain conditions of a deep invasion. As you mentioned, LBA umbrella is a must, as it is to have naval search saturation and good recon. Ideally I grab a base quickly and by the time he is ready to send the KB, this is already fait accomplished, so if he wants it back then he will need to risk fighting under heavy odds

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Another question that just came to mind

Base or dot-base?
as mentioned before, I will have quite a few LSTs... which means, in just a few turns I can unload all what is needed to build a base, including supply.
Lets say I pick an atoll with small stacking capability, something like Makin at 15K... If I disembark close to maximum stacking, which can be achived... then good luck Japan getting it back, as it lacks real amphibious capabilities!
lots of costly banzai shock attacks with no supply..

[IdahoNYer]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Another question that just came to mind

Base or dot-base?
as mentioned before, I will have quite a few LSTs... which means, in just a few turns I can unload all what is needed to build a base, including supply.
Lets say I pick an atoll with small stacking capability, something like Makin at 15K... If I disembark close to maximum stacking, which can be achived... then good luck Japan getting it back, as it lacks real amphibious capabilities!
lots of costly banzai shock attacks with no supply..

Agree you can take it - can't wait for LSTs!!!

But the problem might become sustaining it - especially in the Central Pacific. Long way from LBA fighter cover. IJN can move in and isolate your troops. Apbarog's AAR has been good to see some challenges in an early Allied advance. Even with LBA support, the KB (and he's facing a degraded KB) can provide challenges once ashore. Although the cost hasn't been light, Apbarog's still driving forward - that's key.

[jwolf]

Wake seems rather optimistic to me. I mean, maybe you could take it -- depending on what he's got there -- but I would guess you couldn't hold it. The South Pacific islands can, in principle, be part of a chain of advances with local support and much more sustainable IMHO.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Jwolf: I think Wake is almost abandoned by Japan, but still I rather not attack it... it is "a bridge to nowhere" kind of place, I am really more interested in the southern island chains

IdahoNYer: Naval bombing is a very valid risk, he can keep my dot-base pinned down with multiple bombings that will destroy my supply and make building very difficult

Also, thanks for pointing me to Apbarog's AAR, I just read his latest entries and I like how aggressive he is. There are very valid points I can take like for example:

The biggest thing I've learned is that in a contested area, which most are, it is very important to land as much as you can on that first day. This is difficult to do early in the war. Using an AP is much preferred over using an xAP. But there aren't many at this point, and it's a tough call to risk them knowing that they will upgrade to even better APAs in 1943.

His losses are certainly way too heavy, in battleships in particular. This ship category one of the few in which you don't get "flooded" by replacements later on. His offensive was launched in November 42, which contributed to losses as he had no real amphibious assets yet (LSTs are game changers). I plan to start when these are all available so we will see.
And even though his losses had being heavy and painful, as of today only at Horn Island he was completely defeated/ evicted.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Prester John has certainly put some efforts in fortifying the Solomon sea... Other than Ndeni, this is a strong candidate for bypassing!
or better yet, to faint an offensive here and then strike somewhere else

I will have recon here soon... will be interesting to see what kind of land forces he has

[Jorge_Stanbury]

And the significantly less developed Gilbert Islands

Tabiteau is so good looking
level 3 airfield... and only level 2 Tarawa as support... I need some recon here soon to see how big are his land forces

[Jorge_Stanbury]

And Wake

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Pt Blair's dangerous neighborhood

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Finally the turn. a quiet one. The news:

Submarines were very active:
- AV Curtiss sunk by a damned submarine. SS I-31 is now added to my list of "submarines that must die" before war ends
- xAKL Washingtonian also lost, by SS-23
- I sent several APDs on ASW TFs --> I knew he was going to attempt to sink my recently bombed cruisers. In the end, the APDs accomplished their objective by dodging several torpedos: I-11 attacked Dent and Bulmer.
- Allied submarines also active, Wahoo, Perch, KVII, Flying fish, Seawolf, all tried to score, but all were "misses".

Other news:
- All ships damaged on Cox's Bazaar (CAs Exeter, Quincy, CL Birmingham, DD Hotspur) are now at Calcutta repairing damage.
Birmigham and Hotspur will need 15 days to fix all system damage, then they will move to Madras or Colombo for withdrawal
Exeter and Quincy will need one month to get fully repaired. For the time being they will remain at Calcutta. I might move them to Colombo.

- Sent another shock attack in Chungking. 1 LCU destroyed. But good news is that in 3 days I will start getting units back (at 1/3 strenght):
520 AV in the next 4 days
plus another 850 AV in the next 8 days

[Jorge_Stanbury]

I have my fingers crossed that tomorrow there will be a new turn.. I am in withdrawal syndrome; still waiting... last one received on December 31st... way too long ago.

So no news, but I want to discuss a potential "cover ops". Look at this picture:


What I see:
1) SOPAC finally got good recon assets... I will write about recon in general soon... stay tunned.
2) Ndeni changed hands a few times, the last time I lost it was in Q2/42. As you can see, there is minimal development, most likely he is only building forts since the time he recaptured it.
3) Luganville in the other hand is getting more developed and important. There had been 4 recent, but relatively harmless, naval bombardments here. The last one was finally contested, and I am happy 2 enemy destroyers sank
4) Vanikoro (dot base) is still in Allied hands [:)]

Ndeni is a good target for invasion; I can potentially have something ready in a month or so, get in and out quickly
I can start this by sneaking a para battalion + maybe small eng/ air support into Vanikoro. Because it is still in Allied hands, he won't be alerted of troops getting there unless he send recon or he spots the transports. I can use APDs and other high speed assets on "fast transport" to try to unload at night. I have also moved transport squadrons to start air supply runs
The key is that if I manage to build this to level 1, then I can guarantee reasonable CAP over Ndeni after the carriers withdraw.

Fighting under the umbrella of Luganville is the best case scenario. If Japan decides not to react, then I still gain nice real state close to the Solomons

[Jorge_Stanbury]

All quiet this turn,
but Tomorrow might be interesting:
Catalina I sighting report: Japanese CA at 53,49 near Ramree Island , Speed unknown
Catalina I sighting report: 6 Japanese ships at 53,49 near Ramree Island , Speed unknown



My best guess: he will bombard Akyab, possible try to recapture; I have only 2 divisions there, as supply is a challenge..

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Doing recon has been a challenge since day one, critical issue being the lack of airplanes.
As of late november 1942, these are the assets available:


India:
- 2 small (6 plane) squadrons, currently at full strength, but with few replacements available and no new production until late 1943
Lysanders and a short legged Dutch squadron complements this. I am not too concerned here because this has become a secondary theater.

Australia:
- one australian squadron, divided in 3 to make use of scarce assets. Full strength but only one P-43 and 3 recon Buffalos left as replacement. Nothing else coming until 1944
All are in Cooktown, but of the 3 sub- groups: the F-4 will move to Darwin to cover Broome and Derby until they are liberated. The two P-43 sub-groups will take care of Port Moresby, Milne Bay, Horn Isl, Buna, etc

Marines:
- 2 squadrons of 18 planes each... way too big for the limited number of planes, hence I divided one squadron to make use of the long ranged but scarce F4F-7 version, while the rest use the more abundant but short legged F4F-3P
All F4F-3P will go to Luganville, as the enemy is closer here mitigating short range. They will cover the Santa Cruz and Southern Solomons islands. I haven't decided yet on F4F-7, likely destination is Baker, to cover the Gilberts

Army:
3 squadrons, one is in the West coast training with the inadequate O-47s, another one is in the Baker island covering the Gilberts, it is using the newest and future workhorse F-5A.
the last squadron is in Luganville covering the Solomons. It was divided to allow for more coverage, so to keep him guessing what will be my objective and also to give me a clear picture of his defenses.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Recon results - Nov 21/ 22

Solomons/ Santa Cruz:

Ndeni A1,P1 (9/10):
2,420 troops, 26 guns, 0 AFVs
6 ships on port, xAKL, TK
no airplanes

Kirakira A3,P0 (9/10):
5,400 troops, 40 guns, 4 AFVs
no ships
fighters 54, bombers 0, auxiliars 2

Lunga A5,P0 (9/10):
13,300 troops, 91 guns, 17 AFVs
no ships
no airplanes

Tulagi A3,P3 (9/10):
8,860 troops, 39 guns, 0 AFVs
1 ship on port, APD
no airplanes

Russell islands A4,P1 (9/10):
6,700 troops, 50 guns, 0 AFVs
no ships
no airplanes

Rennell island A0, P0 (9/10):
320 troops, 0 guns, 0 AFVs
no ships
no airplanes

Gilberts:

Tabiteau A1,P1 (9/10):
5,740 troops, 45 guns, 0 AFVs
5 ships on port, CA
fighters 32, bombers 14, auxiliars 37

Tarawa A1,P1 (9/10):
4,740 troops, 58 guns, 0 AFVs
no ships
fighters 0, bombers 0, auxiliars 6


Papua:

Horn Isl A1,P1 (9/10):
1,540 troops, 10 guns, 0 AFVs
no ships
no airplanes

[IdahoNYer]

You're doing better with your recon assets than I am. I'm lucky to have a single plane in each of the three US F4 segments - operational losses are more than reinforcements. The Lysanders help in India, but I'm also constantly short recon - which of course limits bombing or anything more ambitious. Doesn't look to get much better either as the game progresses. Have you considered using non recon aircraft to augment? I tried LB-30s with pilots with reasonably good recon stats for a bit, but just didn't get anything worthwhile out of it. If the plane doesn't have a camera, not worth it in my experience.

Assume you're more conservative with your recon assets than me - I usually fly every day that I have aircraft....probably not the best plan...

[Jorge_Stanbury]

In my experience, it is not worth to use planes without camera, with a few exceptions, mainly the use of Japanese submarine based float planes before major operations (including carrier strikes). Another exception would be to mask your recon: you recon all possible bases: you use proper recon or camera planes on those you really want to cover, while bombers take the rest, he will not know the difference and will be left guessing about your intentions.

My attrition has been low because I haven't fought in the Pacific or Australia. Up until a few turns ago, I didn't have a clue on what he had available in nearby islands
Also:: some of the assets are recent arrivals: F-5A is a good example, that plane is not yet available, but I receive a new squadron carrying them; they just unloaded from an AKV a few turns ago. Another examples are the USN F4F-7 starting a brief production in November and the very limited Australian F-4s/ P-43s production in October... 9 planes between the 2, imperative need to divide the squadron into 3 sub-units.

In India, attrition has been relatively high, I spent all Mitchell PRIIs, most Hurricanes PRIIs, and using the recently arrived, but briefly produced Spitfire PRIV

The US will start getting better assets: Navy PBY-4-1P Liberators, 5x month until war end. Army F-5As, 4x month until 1944, then a better version taking over. This plus many other long ranged bomber airframe models