Axis Balkan Strategy & Setup Questions?

[rkr1958]

So I'm in uncharted waters for me at least in the Balkans. Here's the situation.

Germany setup with all 3 HQ's and most of their land and air units in the east for the attack on Poland. However, this setup was also to support the German plan for conquering Hungary, Bulgaria, aligning Romania and (eventually) having Italy align Yugoslavia. All this accomplished by allowing the Soviet claim on Bessarabia, denying Hungarian's and Bulgaria's claim, immediately DOW them and then conquering them. These are not the uncharted waters as I was following the outline discussed above.

So, the USSR put out in the Black Sea an SCS with division ready to land on the Bulgarian shores. Also, the Soviets had Timoshen and a TRS in Odessa ready to go on their next (combined) impulse. However, all this really was a bluff to get the German's and Italian's to DOW Yugoslavia and force them to conquer them instead of trying to align them.

The Soviet bluff didn't work, Germany did not DOW Yugoslavia, but instead moved Von Leeb, 3 infantry corps, 2 armor corps and 1 armor div to, or near, the Hungarian border and posed to take Hungary out when the time came.

So, when the next allied impulse came around the Soviets decided to claim Bessarabia, but there was a problem. There was only 1 chit left in the USE Germany/Italy pool. This meant that if the Germans rejected the Soviet claim there was some probability (not sure what it was) that the USA could never DOW Germany/Italy (i.e., 2 chits would need to be pulled but there was only 1 left).

Not willing to take the risk of that, the Soviets decide to DOW Bulgaria instead and landed a division on Bulgaria's shores. Actually they took a port. I'm at the next allied impulse after all that.

Now, I am playing solitary and I could have had the Soviets claim Bessarabia and the Germans accept the claim, which would require 0 chits to be pulled and no risk to the USA never being allowed to DOW Germany/Italy. However, I try to play each country straight up and not scripted. Well, I try to minimize the scripting. So my calculus was if I were playing Germany against another Soviet Human player would I allow the claim or would I "roll the dice" by denying the claim in the hopes that the USA could never DOW Germany/Italy. At that point, I decided I would do the latter and would deny the claim. So with that in mind, the USSR DOW and invaded Bulgaria instead. By the way, and I think Steve coined this term, I know you've heard of the AIO = Artificial Intelligence Opponent. What I just did in my solitary play I call my HIO = Human Intelligence Opponent. [;)]

So these area my uncharted waters that I'm in and I have some questions:

1. Can the Soviets still demand Bessarabia?

2. Can the Germans/Italians still align Yugoslavia?

3. How do Hungary and Romania react to the Soviet invasion of Bulgaria?

4. (FYI: Poland and Denmark have both been (or will be) completely conquered) As the German and Italian players what is my best course of action for the Balkans?

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

1. Can the Soviets still demand Bessarabia?

Yes.

2. Can the Germans/Italians still align Yugoslavia?

Yes. The Axis must control Bulgaria, though, so if the Soviets conquer the place, the Axis must take it back first.

3. How do Hungary and Romania react to the Soviet invasion of Bulgaria?

They ignore it.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

So I'm in uncharted waters for me at least in the Balkans. Here's the situation.

Germany setup with all 3 HQ's and most of their land and air units in the east for the attack on Poland. However, this setup was also to support the German plan for conquering Hungary, Bulgaria, aligning Romania and (eventually) having Italy align Yugoslavia. All this accomplished by allowing the Soviet claim on Bessarabia, denying Hungarian's and Bulgaria's claim, immediately DOW them and then conquering them. These are not the uncharted waters as I was following the outline discussed above.

So, the USSR put out in the Black Sea an SCS with division ready to land on the Bulgarian shores. Also, the Soviets had Timoshen and a TRS in Odessa ready to go on their next (combined) impulse. However, all this really was a bluff to get the German's and Italian's to DOW Yugoslavia and force them to conquer them instead of trying to align them.

The Soviet bluff didn't work, Germany did not DOW Yugoslavia, but instead moved Von Leeb, 3 infantry corps, 2 armor corps and 1 armor div to, or near, the Hungarian border and posed to take Hungary out when the time came.

So, when the next allied impulse came around the Soviets decided to claim Bessarabia, but there was a problem. There was only 1 chit left in the USE Germany/Italy pool. This meant that if the Germans rejected the Soviet claim there was some probability (not sure what it was) that the USA could never DOW Germany/Italy (i.e., 2 chits would need to be pulled but there was only 1 left).

Not willing to take the risk of that, the Soviets decide to DOW Bulgaria instead and landed a division on Bulgaria's shores. Actually they took a port. I'm at the next allied impulse after all that.

Now, I am playing solitary and I could have had the Soviets claim Bessarabia and the Germans accept the claim, which would require 0 chits to be pulled and no risk to the USA never being allowed to DOW Germany/Italy. However, I try to play each country straight up and not scripted. Well, I try to minimize the scripting. So my calculus was if I were playing Germany against another Soviet Human player would I allow the claim or would I "roll the dice" by denying the claim in the hopes that the USA could never DOW Germany/Italy. At that point, I decided I would do the latter and would deny the claim. So with that in mind, the USSR DOW and invaded Bulgaria instead. By the way, and I think Steve coined this term, I know you've heard of the AIO = Artificial Intelligence Opponent. What I just did in my solitary play I call my HIO = Human Intelligence Opponent. [;)]

So these area my uncharted waters that I'm in and I have some questions:

1. Can the Soviets still demand Bessarabia?

2. Can the Germans/Italians still align Yugoslavia?

3. How do Hungary and Romania react to the Soviet invasion of Bulgaria?

4. (FYI: Poland and Denmark have both been (or will be) completely conquered) As the German and Italian players what is my best course of action for the Balkans?

I don't think your Allied "HIO" has played this with much "I".

If the plan is as you say for the Allies, they should always have all three starting chits in the Ge/It Entry Pool. Actually they should probably always do that, regardless.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

I don't think your Allied "HIO" has played this with much "I".

Hey, I didn't say he was smart, just intelligent? How's that for an oxymoron! By the way, my HIO comes programmed with the ability to learn from his mistakes. The problem is that he is playing against a mirror HIO with the same inexperience level. [:D]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

If the plan is as you say for the Allies, they should always have all three starting chits in the Ge/It Entry Pool. Actually they should probably always do that, regardless.

In the above case, I did. So 3 chits to start with. Germany DOW Poland, +1, or 4 chits. On the first allied impulse, CW DOW Germany, -1 (3 left), USSR claims Eastern Poland, -1 (2 left) and USSR claims the Baltic States, -1 (1 left).

[rkr1958]

A somewhat related question, where can I find how many chits can be pulled and the probability of pulling a number of chits (i.e., 0, 1 or 2) as a function of event? All this to me is a black box. For example, in the above situation I know that a Soviet DOW on Bulgaria can result in 0 or 1 chits pulled (but I don't know the probability) but if the Soviet claim on Bessarabia is denied then up to 2 chits can be pulled. I only know this much from attempting to take those actions with 1 chit left and having the game tell me, or not tell me, that I'm risking US' ability to DOW Germany/Italy. However, in the later case (i.e., denying German's claim on Bessarabia) I have no idea what the probabilities are for losing 0, 1 or 2 chits.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

I don't think your Allied "HIO" has played this with much "I".

Hey, I didn't say he was smart, just intelligent? How's that for an oxymoron! By the way, my HIO comes programmed with the ability to learn from his mistakes. The problem is that he is playing against a mirror HIO with the same inexperience level. [:D]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

If the plan is as you say for the Allies, they should always have all three starting chits in the Ge/It Entry Pool. Actually they should probably always do that, regardless.

In the above case, I did. So 3 chits to start with. Germany DOW Poland, +1, or 4 chits. On the first allied impulse, CW DOW Germany, -1 (3 left), USSR claims Eastern Poland, -1 (2 left) and USSR claims the Baltic States, -1 (1 left).

Yeah, you don't want to do the Baltic States until much later with this strategy. And you don't want to DoW Italy or get aggressive with minor countries anywhere else. And you could even not lose one on the Fr/CW DoW of Germany (10% chance, although there's also a 20% chance of also receiving 2 on the German DoW of Poland). If that happens you really have decisions to make!

...unless of course you are trying the "No US in Europe" Gambit, but that is a whole separate discussion.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

A somewhat related question, where can I find how many chits can be pulled and the probability of pulling a number of chits (i.e., 0, 1 or 2) as a function of event? All this to me is a black box. For example, in the above situation I know that a Soviet DOW on Bulgaria can result in 0 or 1 chits pulled (but I don't know the probability) but if the Soviet claim on Bessarabia is denied then up to 2 chits can be pulled. I only know this much from attempting to take those actions with 1 chit left and having the game tell me, or not tell me, that I'm risking US' ability to DOW Germany/Italy. However, in the later case (i.e., denying German's claim on Bessarabia) I have no idea what the probabilities are for losing 0, 1 or 2 chits.

See here: tm.asp?m=3996022&mpage=1&#3996049