The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Raid Over Singapore. 12 B-24s that made quite an impact on Sumatra Campaign and the war.

P.S. I'll post a better map later, when I figure out what I'm doing.

[jwolf]

I'll bet that got his attention! Nice work! [8D]

No CAP? [&:]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Raid Over Singapore. 12 B-24s that made quite an impact on Sumatra Campaign and the war.

Oh, that is bloody brilliant! [&o]

[Canoerebel]

There were 20 Tojos on CAP. The interaction between them and the Liberators was almost nil, so I think they must have been posted too high or too low.

Alhtough Singapore has been within range of Allied bases since early in the campaign, I purposesly didn't target the base in any way. There were many reasons, the most important being I didn't want to expend "surprise" unless I felt it was worth it.

I did begin reconning the base with F-4s beginning a week or so back. I hoped it would force John to divert fighters to CAP there and take some heat off Saban. Recon continued to show minimal fighter presence at the base (I think it showed just one!) with lots of bombers. There was also shipping present, but nothing larger than CAs as best I could tell.

You'll recall a few days back enemy carriers fresh from the IO were sighted NE of Singers as though retiring to Hong Kong, Manila or the Home Islands. Recon continued to showed no carriers at Singers and few fighters.

Since there were few fighters, I figured there weren't any high-value targets at the base. But I thought a raid might get through and damage some xAKs, an event that would more likely persuade John to increase the CAP. So I brought in the B-24 squadron from Cox's Bazaar, replaced its commander with a high-aggression one, and set it to Port Attack, Singapore.

You can imagine my surprise when this happened.

Can you imagine John's state of mind right now?

[Canoerebel]

The carriers at Singers were the only Japanese ships damaged by an Allied attack during the day. Late in the turn, I heard the sounds of sinking. There is a chance Hiyo went under. I'm going to compare the points lost totals for this turn and yesterday's turn, plus aircraft losses (for signs that Kates or Vals or A6M5s destroyed) for evidence.

More about the implications of this attack later. These are far above and beyond the damage inflicted.

[Bullwinkle58]

At least ten carriers in port and a CAP of 20?! [8|]

Live by offense, die by offense.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Can you imagine John's state of mind right now?

[Crackaces]

Can you imagine John's state of mind right now?

The "Next war" modification is in the works .. in a "Guns of the South" fantasy modification aliens arm the IJN
with Phalanx Point Defense weapons systems [8D]

I assess that this KB division is out of action .. the ships taking one bomb hit for 2 weeks at least? .. any messages
about major damage one those 1 hitters?

Now the "Hiyro" is in deep trouble as you know .. if she survives the fires.. she will first need a very long time on a pier . and an
arduous journey to a sizeable dry dock .. Akagi will need a couple of months work it looks like but again I don't
know about major damage messages ..??

With this many CV's/CVE's out ... I foresee John having to play "whack-a-mole" as threats show up where the rest of the KB are not ..
he might even have to keep his offense where he has land based air until he sorts out his losses ..

Those 2 carriers will not be able to unload aircraft until those fires are out ..I await aircraft ground losses to confirm sinking ..

What a turn of events!

[Lecivius]

This one attack may well be the tipping point in the war. It will blunt his best offensive weapon, and do damage to his psyche.

[witpqs]

Wow. Bravo - I understand you didn't know they were there, but you made a good call on the recon and situation and put yourself in a position to benefit from good luck.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The "Next war" modification is in the works .. in a "Guns of the South" fantasy modification aliens arm the IJN
with Phalanx Point Defense weapons systems [8D]

Planned carrier upgrades

[Mike McCreery]

That is simply beautiful!!!

[Encircled]

Good play on your part.

Carriers in port with a minimal CAP whilst in range of Allied 4Es.........

[Canoerebel]

Here are the implications:

1. Even if no carriers had been damaged, I'd have been delighted to know they were at Singers. It would give me a window to send some supply convoys and combat ship TFs to Sabang with little chance of interdiction by a large carrier force.

2. Since the KB is in damaged state, that window is now considerably bigger. I'll seriously ramp up suppy convoys to Sabang. I may also reinforce with infantry - that's a major step. Supply is currently 250k at Sabang, which is level two port and level eight airfield. So there's no diminishment concern.

3. This should blunt some of the pressure on Sabang by air, at least temporarily. John will post enormous CAP at Singers until he can get his ships repaired or safely away. Too, the raid in the Java Sea and the current raid near Japan (John's patrols lit that one up today) will force him to disperse his air a bit. Every day without massive attacks against Sabang are like gold. If I get days or a week or more it makes a huge difference. Ultimately, I've got to nurse my dwindling fighter corps until April, when Hellcats start to become available. This attack is a big step forward.

4. With the KB whittled a bit - probably for several weeks or more - John will be more concerned about the Allied carriers. He doesn't know exactly where they are, but he does know their aircraft are operating out of Sabang and Burma. He'll be cautious. This buys more time for the Allies in Sumatra - I don't think he can win the campaign without using his carriers to shut down traffic between Ceylon and Sabang.

5. A few days ago I upped Allied chances of winning in Sumatra from 15-20% to perhaps 25%. Perhaps those odds are now at 50%. This means alot as far as my willingness to commit valuable assets forward. I'd be more reluctant in a hopeless cause. But this cause isn't hopeless.

6. The Sumatra Campaign is the primary focus. But the secondary focus has always been to whittle down Japanese naval power. This has been a terrific week with the sinking of CAs Takao and Ashigara and now damage to the KB. I'll continue to work this angle - this is a target rich environment and the Allies have lots of assets.

[Panther Bait]

Nice Job, CR

[Lowpe]

I hate when that happens...but it does.[&:]

Simply a measure of John trying to juggle three games and save some time on his turn.

Nicely done.[&o]

[BillBrown]

I am really waiting for Johns AAR entry. [:D]

[ny59giants]

I may not chanrge John for his next counseling session. This was a big V-8 commercial moment. Duh!!

[Canoerebel]

John's work load, family life, and game load are major factors, but his focus on offense (as Bullwinkle noted) is also part of the mix. The two USN DD TFs penetrating to Balikpapan and the near-shore vicinity of Japan over the past three turns without detection are symptomatic. Even though he's distracted and busy, he shouldn't be leaving vast areas unpatrolled. You set up your patrol network and leave it in place with little maintenance required. If you're giving defense any thought whatsoever, that is.

I watched the replay again and then checked all the numbers. He had 20 Tonys at 32k. The B-24s were at 10k. All bomb hits were 500 pounders. As best I can tell, Hiyo was not sunk. She did have at least three bombs penetrate into her interior causing "critical damage." Some of the other smaller carriers had at least one bomb hit with similar reports. But the bigger carrier hits were mostly "flight deck" hit reports.

No unusual numbers of aircraft were lost "on the ground/field," further suggesting that Hiyo is afloat.

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safter port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.

What I'll probably do is bring in more B-24s and the few B-17s to Sabang. I'll load up Langsa with B-25Cs. I'll set the 25s at 10k and the heavy bombers at 35k. I might use the P-38G squadron at Sabang (moving it to Langsa for proximity) to sweep. I don't think any other fighters have range, but I'll check.

Any thoughts?

On a separate note, should the fact that John has Tonys at Singapore tell me anything important about the status of his airforce? How good is the Tony? It's been years since I've dealt with those aircraft, so I forget how good they are and when they come online.

[Lowpe]

I believe in the mod you are playing the Tony gets insanely good, however the first few models are handicapped by high SR and no cl cannons.

It is however, the first armored IJAAF fighter usually encountered and is great for rear area defense, but why at 30K. If those planes were at 10K there would have been very few hits.

I count the latter Tonies as the best bomb killers in the Army arsenal....except for the Frank B which is very difficult to get early.