The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[ny59giants]

1st Marines AV up to 117 as that unit grows stronger.

If possible, divide the division and ensure you have good leaders to speed up the recovery process.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the tip, Michael. I didn't know about it.

[BBfanboy]

Re: KB - it did have some dents to hammer out from a few days back. John has not been splitting his Carriers into many TFs so he may keep the undamaged ones just guarding the repair ports while the rest get patched up.

[Canoerebel]

I know some of John's carriers were damaged in the "30 Seconds over Singapore" raid last week. Afterwards, I had combat reports showing Soryu's fighters and other fighters engaged in CAP over land bases in Malaya. I also had a SigInt report of a CVL at Soerabaja. Then Shark missed that shot at Zuikaku a few hexes east of Soerabaja.

I think some of John's carriers are currently in port repairing and/or upgrading. I think others may be raiding. I'm concerned enough that I've spent a good bit of time attending to shipping in ports - especially those in SWPac and SoPac.

He knows my carrier air has been engaged in land-based combat for weeks. So he probably has a pretty good idea of where my flattops are. If so, he wouldn't hesitate to raid with a group that included Zuikaku, though he probably wouldn't send a smaller group anywhere that mine could show up. That's why I doubt they'll be employed too close to Ceylon right now.

Or perhaps its all my imagination.

[Canoerebel]

Haunting the Halls of the Forum: A Night in the Life of a Forumite

Tonight I was reading in the forums when I noticed that John twice made posts titled "Banzai!" on his AAR. Augh, my worst nightmare! Now I know something bad has happened. It could range from catastrophic to major to relatively minor. John is a pretty excitable guy, so anything's possible. But my imagination runs wild. Here's how my guesses are running:

1. The KB found and hammered the Death Star: This would be the surest way to elicit a "Banzai!" from John. Yet I know this is highly unlikely. There are too many Allied ships between the any conceivable place the KB could be and my carriers. So I'm nearly positive this isn't what happened.

2. The next most likely thing in terms of what's possible - and the most likely thing in terms of what's probable - is that John launched a massively coordinated raid on Sabang by fighters and strike aircraft. The "Banzaii" indicates his fighters overwhelmed my CAP allowing the strike aircraft to hammer BB Indiana and friends. I'm nearly positive this is what's happened and it's really a worst case scenario. There's only one thing that gives me some comfort: As the minutest tick by, I notice that John's only posted twice and nobody else has posted in reply to his posts. That suggests (though it's no guarantee) that whatever happened isn't on the scale of a loss-of-Sabang disaster.

3. The next most likely thing - both possible and probable - is that John's Burma Army attacked and defeated my stack, forcing it to retreat into the jungle through the just opened hexside. This scenario isn't a big concern unless the two Australian divisions had a lot of squads destroyed. That's very unlikely, so I'm not too worried about it.

4. The KB popped up off Perth or Sydney and caught some of the sips I've rerouted to safer ports. Most of these ships aren't critical, but there are a couple of AOs that can be converted to CVEs in this mod. Sinking AOs might be sufficient to prompt a "Banzai!"

5. The KB popped up deeper into Allied waters and picked off any of several slow BBs that re repositioning. These guys are so deep behind Allied lines that I think this highly unlikely. But certainly anything like this would prompt a "Banzai!"

There's really nothing else out there at the moment that's at risk. So I feel certain it has to be one of these five things. Of these, I was only prepared for No. 3, so I hope that's it. Now I just have to wait hours or minutes or - the agony! - overnight to receive the turn back from John.

I hate "Banzai!"!

[Mike McCreery]

I couldnt handle the suspense so I went over and read his AAR ;]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I couldnt handle the suspense so I went over and read his AAR ;]

That's just mean, Wargmr! Not the going over to John's AAR part, but telling CR you know what is in it (and he has to wait)! [:-]

[Lowpe]

John wanted you informed that he has a fair amount of bookkeeping to do and it may be a while before you get the turn back.

Perhaps you can email and ask him for the replay to satisfy your guesses?

[Canoerebel]

John was kind enough to send the Movie. My Guess No. 3 was correct - John's army shock attacked and booted the almost-isolated Allied army from it's hex, sending it into the jungle where it's on a road. The damage looks pretty stiff (see report pasted here). Lots of squads destroyed. The question is whether the two Aussie divisions were roughed up badly (and, to a lesser extent, 41st USA Div.). I'm somewhat hopeful that most of the damage occurred to other units that were mostly disabled. But I'll find out and report later.

But no matter how bad it is, it could have been so much worse. The escape hexside just opened this turn. If John had shock attacked the previous turn, he'd have done great damage with another shot the next day. Instead, as bad as the damage is, the Allied units are no in jungle-rough terrain and joined there several fresh Indian divisions.

I hope John says something about the Aussies, because I've been hoping that circumstances would allow me to say, "Well, they won't be fighting again anytime soon." That'll be the truth, and that'll tickle John's ears, but it won't be the whole truth.

Ground combat at 56,47 (near Magwe)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 32577 troops, 365 guns, 826 vehicles, Assault Value = 1048

Defending force 48728 troops, 940 guns, 1335 vehicles, Assault Value = 734

Japanese adjusted assault: 640

Allied adjusted defense: 118

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1369 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 66 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 28 disabled
Guns lost 39 (2 destroyed, 37 disabled)
Vehicles lost 104 (8 destroyed, 96 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
10443 casualties reported
Squads: 317 destroyed, 119 disabled
Non Combat: 581 destroyed, 179 disabled
Engineers: 32 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 201 (150 destroyed, 51 disabled)
Vehicles lost 260 (122 destroyed, 138 disabled)
Units retreated 13

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
2nd Tank Division
8th Tank Regiment
21st Division
33rd Division
55th Cavalry Regiment
59th/C Division

Defending units:
7th Australian Division
6th Australian Division
5th British Brigade
1st Gloucestershire Battalion
41st Infantry Division
23rd British Brigade
XV Indian
22nd (East African) Brigade
77th Coast AA Regiment
104th RAF Base Force
III Indian
IV Indian
26th Indian Brigade

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I couldnt handle the suspense so I went over and read his AAR ;]

That's just mean, Wargmr! Not the going over to John's AAR part, but telling CR you know what is in it (and he has to wait)! [:-]

I am a bad man ;]

[Canoerebel]

John hasn't sent the turn file back yet, so I haven't been able to see just how badly mussed up the two Australian divisions are.

He's very excited about the outcome of that battle. To me it isn't a big deal. But it is to John. And that means it is to me, if that makes sense.

Due to air war and supply constraints, I had no ambitions in Burma other than to draw as much attention from John as possible. That was successful. But now that he thinks the campaign is won, where does he turn his attention next? Does he go on the offensive in Burma? Does he turn all his attention to Sumatra? Or does he hatch another plan?

For the Allies, anything other than Option 2 is wonderful. Option 2 is the thing that restless nights and unsettling cries of "Banzai!" are made of.

At this point in the war, everything hinges on Sumatra. I feel sure that John realizes this, though there's a smidgeon of hope that his propensity for raiding and attacking in slashing ways will prompt him to look elsewhere. I can only hope.

The question is whether the Allies can hold Sabang long term and in good enough condition to eventually turn it into a base of offensive operations. I think the key date is April 1, when Hellcats come online at 130 per month. That event will elevate Allied fighter production by 65 per month (because F4F production is only 65 per month).

With these things in mind, I'll post some snapshot graphics of what's going on.

[Canoerebel]

While Sumatra is the key place in the game, the air war is the key to the war. If the Allies can somehow manage to hold out in Sumatra it will be because of the air war - the fighters - the fighter pools - and a victory against the odds.

I'm posting the fighter pools for USAAF fighters. As you can see, the pools are basically empty. They are always empty.

Total production of USA fighters (army, navy, marine) are:

P-40K (65 per month)
P-38G (20 per month)
P-39D (25 per month)
F4F (45 per month)
Corsair (30 per month - just came online)

Total production is therefore 180 per month.

I'm not sure what John's production is in terms of decent fighters, but I think NYGiants once mentioned he might be producing 200 or more Tojos a month. There are also the A5Ms and Tonys to contend with (plus Nates and whatever else is out there).

Limited fighter production is the key. If I had more fighters, Sumatra would be an offensive rather than defensive position right now. What about going forward? Do the Allies ever produce enough fighters to allow sustained offensive operations in places with concentrations of enemy fighters? The appearance of the Hellcat in April '43 will help. Then the appearance of the P-47 (at the moment, I can't recall if it's late '43 or early '44 when these show up in numbers).

But the fighter pools look awfully scary for a long, long time. That is the dominating factor at the moment. It means I have to fight defensively over Sabang, where I've been getting favorable results.

Going forward, it will affect how, when and where the Allies invade later in the game.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the current map of Burma, showing the hex (before the final battle) where the Allied stack was almost isolated and was molested in today's IJA shock attack.

I kept up the pressure in Burma for as long as possible to draw John's attention to this theater. But lack of fighters and lack of supplies makes it difficult to fight away from the bases (Ramree and Akyab, mainly). I can't ram supply into those bases because I don't control the air.

I did use up much of my LBA (2EB, I mean) trying to keep John guessing for the past month. There were successes, but the cost was prohibitive.

My hope is that John will elect to go on the offensive here (anything to divert any attention from Sumatra).

[Canoerebel]

This post and the next one will show "before" shots of the two Australian divisions (I haven't seen the results of the battle yet - when John sends the file, I'll post "after" shots of these two divisions).

Supply and disablements were low, so damage taken in the attack might have been pretty high.

[Canoerebel]

The other Aussie division.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the situation at Sabang at the moment. This is where John has to win the air war to win the campaign. There's been basically no air war for two weeks. I expect that to change momentarily.

Supply levels are good. Mines at 960 are holding steady with two ACM in port. Forts at four and rising at 0.03 per day (so another month or so to reach five). Airfield at 8.7, so should reach 9 within a month. AV in the 400s and rising quickly as 1st Marine Division recovers nicely from combat.

[Canoerebel]

SWPAC HQ is at Sabang and 100% prepped.

All of you will be impressed with the commander, who is dear to the hearts of so many AE players.

Dugout Doug has good numbers except for inspiration. Does that mean disabled troops "fixed" as efficiently? It would cost me 200 PP to change commanders. Would you, if you were in my position? (I'm inclined to leave him in place.)

[Canoerebel]

If Sumatra is the key place, and if the air war is the key to Sumatra, then this fighter group is the key to the air war. The one time this group wasn't available during an enemy sweep of Sabang, my F4Fs and P40Ks suffered inordinantly. So I have to keep these guys healthy and happy.

You can see settings of Range 0 and 90% CAP. Fatigue is 19, which I find acceptable for combat effectiveness, and maintainable indefinitely during quiet periods.

I have occasionally used this unit for sweeps, escort, and LRCAP missions that I felt were vital. But such occasions will be very, very rare to non-existent going forward. These guys really are essential.

It's the only P-38 group I have available. Danged fighter pools.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's the situation at Sabang at the moment. This is where John has to win the air war to win the campaign. There's been basically no air war for two weeks. I expect that to change momentarily.

Supply levels are good. Mines at 960 are holding steady with two ACM in port. Forts at four and rising at 0.03 per day (so another month or so to reach five). Airfield at 8.7, so should reach 9 within a month. AV in the 400s and rising quickly as 1st Marine Division recovers nicely from combat.

To build faster, build one thing at a time. To build slower, build more than one thing at a time.

[poodlebrain]

Given their importance, you might want a new leader for your P-38s. The Inspiration is great for getting your pilots to fly, but the low Air rating limits their combat effectiveness. You can sacrifice some Leadership at this point since the unit already has more than adequate experience.