The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
To build faster, build one thing at a time. To build slower, build more than one thing at a time.

You beat me to it. I was scrolling to post and saw you had said this.

Forts are gold right now. An AF8 is plenty for what you need, and av support already far exceeds demand even without the advantages of a Level 9. You're already over the normal build point on the AF, so getting to 9 is wildly expensive in terms of engineer hours. Build forts alone.

And if he gets the base don't give him an AF 9.

[Mike McCreery]

wut the moose said...

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If Sumatra is the key place, and if the air war is the key to Sumatra, then this fighter group is the key to the air war. The one time this group wasn't available during an enemy sweep of Sabang, my F4Fs and P40Ks suffered inordinantly. So I have to keep these guys healthy and happy.

You can see settings of Range 0 and 90% CAP. Fatigue is 19, which I find acceptable for combat effectiveness, and maintainable indefinitely during quiet periods.

I have occasionally used this unit for sweeps, escort, and LRCAP missions that I felt were vital. But such occasions will be very, very rare to non-existent going forward. These guys really are essential.

It's the only P-38 group I have available. Danged fighter pools.

I think you really need to change out the commander of this unit. Get one with a very high air
rating, this will affect air to air combat. My preference is Air - Leadership - Inspiration. I
try to get these as high as possible with air being the most important.

I see I was scooped by poodlebrain.

[ny59giants]

See "Leaders" document I sent you. It was done by Alfred.

[BBfanboy]

I would not spend 200 PP to replace Mac. Not that I like the guy, but there are more critical things to spend 200 PP on.

[Canoerebel]

Lots of helpful tips. Thanks, gents.

I'll change the P-38G leader (and check all other squadron leaders too) next turn.

I'm keeping Mac in place, BB.

[Canoerebel]

02/04/43

Finally received the turn from John, along with four or five emails going into detail about how close a thing it was in Burma. He also mentions that he's going to concentrate now on Sumatra. That's the only thing he can do that makes any sense, of course, but I held the slimmest of hopes that he might get carried away somewhere helpful.

Battle of Sumatra: Thanks to helpful tips from you gents, I went through the fighter roster at Sabang. I have about 15 groups there and ended up changing out about five commanders. Low "Air" grades. The Allied garrisons at Phuket and one of the Nicobars hold against attacks by larger enemy forces. That won't last long, I'm afraid. Given John's email revelations, I held off on one little move I had planned for the day. I want to see what form his attack will take tomorrow (and I do think it's coming tomorrow) before giving it a try.

Battle of Burma: The two Australian units don't look too badly beaten up. Most of the losses seemed to have been taken by Indian units plus one Brit brigade. That suits me. In reply to one of JOhn's emails, I truthfully told him that the Battle of Burma has been fun and challenging and that "the Aussies won't see action again for awhile." As I told you gents, this is the truth, but it's not exactly the whole truth. I'm interested in seeing what John does in Burma now. Does he chase the fleeing Allies? Does he go for Ramree Island? Does he use his airforce here? The Sumatra campaign hangs in the balance awaiting word...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

02/04/43

Finally received the turn from John, along with four or five emails going into detail about how close a thing it was in Burma. He also mentions that he's going to concentrate now on Sumatra. That's the only thing he can do that makes any sense, of course, but I held the slimmest of hopes that he might get carried away somewhere helpful.

Battle of Sumatra: Thanks to helpful tips from you gents, I went through the fighter roster at Sabang. I have about 15 groups there and ended up changing out about five commanders. Low "Air" grades. The Allied garrisons at Phuket and one of the Nicobars hold against attacks by larger enemy forces. That won't last long, I'm afraid. Given John's email revelations, I held off on one little move I had planned for the day. I want to see what form his attack will take tomorrow (and I do think it's coming tomorrow) before giving it a try.

Battle of Burma: The two Australian units don't look too badly beaten up. Most of the losses seemed to have been taken by Indian units plus one Brit brigade. That suits me. In reply to one of JOhn's emails, I truthfully told him that the Battle of Burma has been fun and challenging and that "the Aussies won't see action again for awhile." As I told you gents, this is the truth, but it's not exactly the whole truth. I'm interested in seeing what John does in Burma now. Does he chase the fleeing Allies? Does he go for Ramree Island? Does he use his airforce here? The Sumatra campaign hangs in the balance awaiting word...

The amount of OPSEC you guys share is truly amazing . . .

[Canoerebel]

John shares a lot of OPSEC. I never share any unless it serves a purpose. "The Aussies won't be seeing battle for a long time to come" is the truth, but isn't the whole truth, and serves a very specific and important purpose.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the explanation: Weeks ago, the Australian divisions were designated for action a long way away and a long time off. I changed their prep destinations. I wanted to withdraw them somehow without arousing John's suspicions. In other words, I wanted them, if possible, to get mussed up a bit in combat without getting too mussed up. Hence the recent movements in Burma, though I cut things a bit close and nearly got them clobbered (but they are now fully supplied and the damage looks pretty slight - they should be at full strength when called on). Anyhow, I wanted to have a visible and obvious reason for withdrawing them from Burma. So I gave John the truth, but not the whole truth. In this rare instance, the truth leads him to certain conclusions that will end up misleading him. As the Aussies pull back, John won't think anything of it. And if he happens to think "I wonder what happened to them?" in two or three months, he'll probably conclude, without giving it much thought, "Man, they were wrecked."

[ny59giants]

Early '43 - I know you are aware of the big changes that the various 43 rifle squads have in anti-armor value (often from 15 to 75 in value). But are you stockpiling them to be able to make the changes?? I don't remember how far back this change was made to beta patches, but you should have enough of your USMC Rifle '43 that came out in 12/42 to start going through your Marine divisions soon. All the various CommonWealth (CW) countries have their newer rifle squads coming out now. Just a friendly reminder to get this done for as many LCUs in Sumatra as you can and the Aussies before they go elsewhere. Lots of micro-managing to do in early '43 as Allied player. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

02/05/43

Battle of Sumatra: No IJ sweeps of Sabang, to my surprise. Gotta start soon, don't they? Three IJN DDs raid Sabang's port, encountering the Indiana TF. John got a good look at what's there (prompting his email comment, "This is gonna take a wee bit of time I think") and one of his destroyers was sunk. Sabang has AKE, AE and lots of nav support - sufficient to rearm even the biggest guns and torps. Prompted by thoughts you guys put in my head about air group leaders, I checked the captains of individual ships, changing out those with low "Naval" ratings. To my surprise there were a few, including Indiana's skipper!

So what's John thinking now? I try to guess. Sometimes I'm on track. Sometimes not. But if he comes for Sabang by sea, he'll bring lots of BBs in order to overwhelm Indiana. But I still think his best vector of attack is by air. And I think there's a fair chance he'll go for the Langsa invasion at some point (unless the air war goes his way quickly).

NYGiants, thanks for the suggestion. About ten days ago, I went through the land unit roster and turned off all reinforcements and upgrades except for key units. I'd already done so before for marine units. So 1st Marines is refilling with '43 infantry squads and engineers squads.

Battle of Burma: I was heartened to see John continuing to use fighters and bombers against Allied troops and bases - in particular Ramree. I have little to defend with now. But weakness could serve a purpose if it encourages John to utilize assets here that he could otherwise use in Sumatra. The two Aussie divisions are fully supplied and enroute towards Akyab or Cox's Bazaar. They are in decent shape considering what they endured recently.

KB and Death Star: No sign of KB since Shark saw Zuikaku near Soerabaja about a week or ten days back. John's had time to get them to the Sabang/Colombo corridor if that's where they're heading, though I might allow three or four more days before I feel more certain he's sent them elsewhere. I'm looking for them anywhere, especially SoPac or SWPac. Or they could be upgrading. All but one USN carrier just finished upgrading at an undisclosed location. Wasp is repairing in good order at Capetown.

[Lowpe]

Just tell John how many supplies you have at Sabang and he will drop everything to take it![X(]

[Canoerebel]

02/06/43

A quiet day. It's like a wagon train plodding across the Kansas prairie in 1854. The pioneer families see dust clouds here and there. On occasion they see a covey of birds erupt from a thicket, as though frightened by something - or someone. Then a herd of pronghorns is startled from a draw. It's preternaturally quiet, but the old guide knows the signs: Comanchee war parties are closing in....

Battle of Sumatra: No enemy sweeps or bombardments, but recon shows massive concentrations of fighters and bombers at nearby airfields. They're coming, and soon. But the Allied fighter numbers are up to 330+, the highest they've been since shortly after the air war began more than a month ago. Every quiet day is important, because there's little question that John can win the air battle here eventually, but it will take time.

Fuso and Nagato bombard Trinket, one of the Nicobars, and then the Japanese take that island.

SigInt reports part of 16th (or it might have been 14th) IJA division inbound to the Sumatran port just south of Medan. This is solid evidence that John may be planning an overland campaign, hoping to overwhelm the Allied defenses just south of Langsa. The AV of that Allied stack is now up to 1350, with two of the divisions behind three forts (the other two divisions are part of the revolving march towards Langsa, orchestrated just in case they are needed there - I reset them each time they almost leave the hex, as thus far they haven't been needed in Langsa.) An overland campaign is the least risky for John, but also the slowest. I think my biggest fear is that he might get desperate enough to invade Langsa directly.

Recon indicates Georgetown has massive numbers of enemy bombers. That port is seven hexes from Sabang. I'm tempted to send a bombardment TF, but the distance is a concern. There's a 65% chance (according to my imagination) that BB Indiana would end up hanging out near the enemy port overnight and get sunk the next day. So I'm more inclined to send an RN TF flagged by a CA. But I'll recon the base tomorrow (it's currently 3/11) to raise detection levels.

CL Boise is leading a TF inbound to Sabang from Colombo. She's two days away. The naval war is over once she's on duty.

Still no sign of the KB in the key sea lane between Sabang and Ceylon. A picket ship out between Sabang and Diego just registered 10/10 detection, so I'm anxious to see how that develops tomorrow. I think the Battle for Sumatra is going to be very tough on the Allies no matter what, but much more so if the KB takes station and closes down all communication with Ceylon. (Hence my dreams of KB raiding in SoPac or upgrading someplace nice like Manila.)

DEI: The Dutch unit that recaptured Bandgermasin four or five days ago beefed up a bit on the supply (using it all). But there's 2k fuel in port. So a sub is going to visit, thus permitting it to remain on station that much longer. Meanwhile, three USN raiders are back just west of the Java Sea undetected. They'll be in the Sea tomorrow. If they remain undetected, I may split them, sending one part back towards Balikpapan and another to the waters between Soerabaja and Bandjermasin. Heck, they might even refuel there!

Battle of Burma: Pretty quiet air day here. Recon still showing a healthy concentration of enemy aircraft in this theater. I hope that continues.

[Canoerebel]

02/07/43

The storm clouds build, but still no enemy action at Sumatra.

Battle of Sumatra: No sweeps or bombardments. Recon shows more than 300 aircraft at Georgetown, with many other bases carrying large numbers too.

The Allies have 335 fighters at Sabang - 50 P39D, 25 P38G, 15 Corsairs, about equal numbers of F4Fs and P40Ks (roughly 100 each), and a few P-40Es, including one Chinese squadron. Pools, as you know, are essentially nil. So once the attrition begins the number of fighters will dwindle. There is no strategic reserve. The only question is how many losses John is willing to take to overcome the fighters. Last time around, he generally would sweep for two days and then rest for two or three days. I'd like him to continue that as it's a longterm approach.

At some point - maybe immediately, but sooner or later - John will overwhelm the CAP. Then the bombers will come for the ships. Then the flak comes into play. Several weeks ago I sent three AA unis forward to Langsa to handle anticipated enemy LBA strikes on the ground troops there. Only no strikes ever came. Only ship bombardments that didn't effect the infantry, but did mess up AA guns. So two of the three AA units are back at Sabang.

The SigInt that reported 14th Div. inbound to the Sumatran port south of Medan changed. Today it reports that division aboard a ship bound for Singapore.

SigInt about Japanese infantry prep has been remarkable low since we resumed the game. I think the only reports I've gotten have been for Vizagapatnem and Ramree Island. I'm surprised he doesn't have an army prepping for Sabang. Maybe he does and the SigInt has missed it.

KB: No sign of it. That xAK west of Sabang showed no detection this turn.

Battle of Burma: Quiet.

DEI: One of the USN raiding DDs showed detection - I'm not sure if it came from NavSearch or the fact that the DD ended up in the Bima hex this turn.

[zuluhour]

Are you using George's IntellMonkey?

ps. You know John's not going to bring a fly swatter to home plate. It's not the way he rolls. I have read so
much of his AARs I feel I can guess him. It's his openings which continue to amaze me.

[JeffroK]

All of this concentration in the DEI, there must be somewhere else to hit (Hokkaido[:'(])

[Canoerebel]

02/08/43

"Clint, you see that draw over there? Aint it a likely place for a Comanch war party?"

Battle of Sumatra: No Japanese offensive action today. Is this the final day of calm before the storm? John's recent thread postings, titled "Planning" and "Pop Goes the Weasel," suggest that it is. (Although the latter could also refer to the KB showing up near Sydney or something like that.) Allied fighter strength at Sabang is now 350+, after I found a few F4Fs available in a squadron at Auckland. There are also nine Beaufighters. I recently found them pretty effective as fighter bombers at low altitude in Burma, even against Tojos. So they'll fly low altitude CAP at Sabang. CL Boise ate a torp inbound (she just got out of drydock, for goodness sakes!). On the plus side, three merchants will arrive in port tonight, carrying supply and fuel.

The CA Dorsetshire TF bombarded Georgetown overnight, getting in a good whack, doing 17% damage to the airfield and knocking out some supply. As best I can tell, the bombardment didn't destroy or damage any aircraft.

4EB from Langsa hit Palembang, damaging an xAK and an AS along with a fuel point.

Every day of quiet at Sabang is golden. Here's hoping for another, or a few more, or whatever fate can bequeath.

DEI: Shark refueled at Dutch-held Bandjermasin, her fuel going from 5k to 10k. She can remain on patrol that much longer. The USN DD just north of Bima didn't draw detection. I think John is playing coy here, but I want to take a chance. The DD is going to Bandjermais to refuel. If she isn't sighted (small odds, but worth a chance), she might then proceed to Soerabaja or even Palembang. Two other USN DDs will enter the Java Sea tonight and proceed towards Balikpapan. I've done this raid before, so more than likely these DDs get eaten by a hungry enemy.

Battle of Burma: Still some Japanese airforce activity here, but things are mostly quiet.

SWPac: Allied 4EB and 2EB continue to work over Tennant Creek. Peanut 1 (35). Peanut 2 (47). Peanut 3 (12).

SoPac: Base building continues at Wallis Island and Hoorn Island (off Pago Pago and Suva) and at Lord Howe Island. Recon of Vaitupu shows nothing despite 9/10 coverage.

NoPac: Occasional air raids and steady recon for months are meant to keep John honest up here.

[Canoerebel]

I like reading the tea leaves - all the little hints given by the game itself, but alsot things like the ebb and flow of the game (when John is flipping fast and furious, something's up), the titles of John's AAR entries, his email comments, etc. Sometimes the readings are dead on. Sometimes they're not, especially when I do a poor job of reading them.

I did a poor job of reading two email comments by John since we resumed the game. The first occasion was when he sent an email "you could have won the game today." I thought he was referring to my opportunity to engage in a carrier battle or the surface clash that claimed some but not all of his vulnerable AOs that same day. Now I think he was referring to a supply convoy inbound to Rangoon and protected by the Mini KB. To John's way of thinking, Burma is and has been "key" to the war. I don't think so, but I understand where he's coming from.

The second misreading - this one more egregiously missed on my part - came a few weeks ago on the day that my USN raiders hammered an xAK convoy at Balikpapan. On that day, John emailed that my "Aussies had better watch out, looking ahead, behind, etc." I thought he mistakenly called the USN raiders "Aussies" because he knew that's where they had come from. But what a revelation I missed! He was actually referring to the two Aussie divisions that were spearheading an attack deep into Burma. I knew he was coming, and in fact I wanted him to come, but this was an important clue as to how important this campaign was to him. As I mentioned recently, I wanted those Aussies engaged and roughed up a bit, but by misreading his comment, I missed an important clue that would have helped me avoid a near disaster.

So today I went for a long run in the mountains on a very chilly afternoon. As I moved slowly up a steep mountainside, my thoughts turned to "Pop Goes the Weasle," the title of John's most recent AAR post. It occurred to me that that title carries a hint of "past tense" rather than future tense. IE, John wouldn't post this on the eve of a big attack, but instead right after an attack. If that's right, it doesn't necessarily presage an air attack on Sabang tomorrow (though that might still occur), but rather to something that happened this turn.

So what happened? The only two battle events of signficance were the Allied raid on Palembang and the Allied bombardment of Georgetown. The former was the first raid on the vital oil center and might prompt a "Pop" comment, but it wasn't big enough. The latter might prompt the comment only if it was devastatingly effective against John's aircraft there. I'd like to think that's the case, but I doubt it.

But there was one other occurrence this turn. I noticed that one of my remote ports had a 1/0 detection rating. This probably signifies either "radio traffic" SigInt or a Glen reconnaissance. My carriers are just finishing up their upgrades. If John caught a whiff of them after searching for them for awhile, that might well prompt the "Pop" title.

[Bullwinkle58]

Or maybe he doesn't know what the song is about. [:)]

Again, hard for me to grasp how different your game is from mine. The Japanese don't call PH collect. I almost think the info you have is a detriment to analysis. Or as I call it "What analysis?"