The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

2/11/43 (posted again as the first one may "get lost" amidst the clutter of the combat report quotes up above)

Gun smoke lingered above the wagons, like morning fog slow to dissipate. Its acrid smell filled Clint's nostrils as he surveyed the circled wagons. The settlers weren't smiling any more. They weren't laughing, as they had been laughing yesterday morning after they drove away that Comanchee war party. They had driven away another this morning - a larger, more tenacious band - but this time there had been wounds suffered. And yet, the settlers had resolutely stood against the attack, inflicting more harm than they had suffered. They had been bloodied in battle and now showed a sober stillness in the place of yesterday's giddiness. And now they understood the important questions. Just how many Comanchees were there? How many casualties were they willing to take? Most importantly of all, how long would they keep coming?

Battle of Sumatra: The air war dominates this discussion, but first I'll post a few other important items. One of John's subs sank CL Boise near Ceylon (this poor ship spent most of her existence in drydock). Also, after another BB bombardment (Hiei and Nagato unaccompanied by CAs), Phuket falls to most of 48th Division. That's a huge commitment, showing just how much John wanted the base ("What can you do against such reckless hate?"). The cordon tightens. The Allies have just one island base besides those on Sumatra, and it will fall soon.

On the plus side, more merchants came in with supply, which stands now at 275k with another 22k unloading.

But it's the air war that's critical now. I'm going to post excerpts from the Combat Report in awhile. I want to give you readers information and ask a few questions about optimally configuring my fighter squadrons. The Allies came out ahead today, but not decisively so. The loss ratio is probably sustainable, but it's right on the threshhold - tilt it a bit one way, and the Allies might be in big trouble. Tilt it the other way, and we're looking at a protacted effort for John to prevail in the air. And "protraction" is the pathway to victory, which is defined as holding Sabang in good enough condition to permit Hellcats to come to its rescue in April.

The Japanese swept Sabang in large numbers again - 123 Tojos in the morning phase and 71 Tonys in the afternoon. The Tonys seemed to perform better, though the numbers suggest perhaps not. Of those 194 fighters, 26 Tojos were downed (23 a2a) and 20 Tonys (19 a2a). The Allies lost 30 a2a (10 F4F, 10 P40K, 4 P39D, and a scattering of others) plus 9 Ops (4 F4F, 1 P40K, 1 P39D).

So 46 of the best Japanese fighters compared to 31 of the best Allied fighters (that number includes one P38G knocked down). John lost 20 of 71 Tonys (28%) and 26 of 123 Tojos (21%). Five Allied pilots were KIA, 13 WIA, and 3 MIA. Casualty numbers should favor the Allies since I'm fighting over my own base.

Allied losses were considerably less as percentages, but 14 F4Fs and 11 P40Ks is a sobering number and much worse than yesterday's results.

Combining the two days, John has lost 69 Tojos and 20 Tonys. I've lost 19 F4F, 12 P40K, 8 P39D, 2 P38G, and a scattering of others. Aircraft like the P40Es (Chinese and Dutch squadrons) and Buffaloes are doing well. And the Corsairs haven't been touched yet, I think.

John is flying his tonys at 33k and his Tojos at altitudes ranging from 27k to 32k. I have my fighters at various heights - P38Gs at 39k, Corsairs at 35k, P40Ks from 25k to 30k, F4Fs mostly in the mid to upper 20k range, P40E at 15k to 20k, Buffaloes around 15k, P39Ds at 10k, and Beaufighters at 5k. I'll post some questions about altitude later.

In his email, John wrote "FURBALL!!" This is a common comment by him when he is enthusiastic about an air battle (hence it always serves as a bit of a spoiler and also tells me something about his morale). So I think he liked today's results. The Tony performed well. I think he'll come back tomorrow. If he gets a bloody nose, he'll probably have to stand down. If he does well again, he might try to pour it on (sending in A6M5s, bombardment ships, whatever). So I'm looking for any tweaks to maximize the ability of my fighters to fight.

The 2nd P38G squadron isn't flying yet, nor is the P38E group at Calcutta nor is a fresh NZ KittyhawkIII group at Colombo. It's taking awhile to get their aircraft operational. But in about three or four days I should be able to feed them into the fray.

DEI: DD Case is up near Balikpapan. Kates from somewhere nearby flew against her but missed. Case's AA even downed a Kate or two. I'm not sure yet whether Case will take flight for Oz or continue steaming north in the Philippine Sea on a course for Midway, trying to sew consternation wherever she goes.

China: The Chungking B24s hit Hong Kong again, scoring one hit on BB Ise and finding about 15 Oscars on CAP. That John didn't seriously bolster his CAP suggests that his carriers aren't here.

Battle of Burma: IJ bombers are now targeting Ramree Island, which is undefended at the moment. But AA does a fine job, downing more than 20 Helen, Lily, Sally, etc.

[richlove]

Those estimated times to target are very small. Do you have radar sets in your LCUs at Sabang?

[Canoerebel]

Yes. Sabang has three base forces (two USAAF and one USN) that each have two CPS-1 radar.

Over at Langsa, I have a USAAF BF with two SCR270 radar and another with 2 CPS-1.

Is the SCR270 any better than the CPS-1? IE, would it behoove me to move that BF from Langsa to Sabang?

[Lecivius]

I have to agree. You seem to have been caught with a lot of interceptors on 'standby".

Also, is he just sweeping? He is "strato-sweepng" so he is getting a serious dive bonus on your older air frames. It may be a thought to stand down a day and let him sweep blue sky. You take a risk he could also bring bombers, but you save air frames, and force a delay. Something to ponder on.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Lecivius. That's one of the strategies I've been considering (I posted about it a few pages back).

My plan has been to stand down the Wildcats and P40Ks after a few days of tough combat, leaving the P39Ds and Beauforts at 5k and the Corsairs (35K) and P38Gs (39K) as bookends to provide some protection. What do you think of that?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

I have to agree. You seem to have been caught with a lot of interceptors on 'standby"...

Am I doing anything wrong that you can see? Should I be doing anything differently to mimize "standby"? Does my CAP percentage (90%) enter into this?

[BBfanboy]

I am by no means well schooled in air war tactics, but from what I have seen 90% CAP is good for handling one or two raids before they run out of fuel and ammo and have to land to replenish. During this time only 10% (minus the ones with mechanical problems) of your planes are available to try intercept raids.

Numbers are important in A-A combat, so the pattern or the raids is important in deciding whether to put your max numbers in the air to get the best mass against a couple of raids or whether you should hold your cap at something like 50% so you have a reserve to at least give raids a hard time throughout the day.

If John sees your cap numbers declining with more numerous raids he may start throwing his bombers at you to try and close the AF.

[Canoerebel]

That's helpful. I wasn't aware that it worked that way. Thanks, BB.

Keep posting Gents. I have several hours before I have to send the turn back to John, so I want to fine tune things.

The two options out there that you've suggested thus far:

1. Stand down older frames (Wildcats, F4Fs) for a turn.
2. Change CAP setting to perhaps 50% to see if that handles things better given the number of raids each turn.

[ny59giants]

Your altitude settings are fine by me. I would not have that high a percentage for CAP. Likely, I would go with 40 or 50% CAP and 10% Rest. If you look at the "Planes" in some of your air groups, their fatigue levels might be getting too high and will result in more op losses.

[BBfanboy]

I didn't comment on the fighter altitude question, so here is my wild-a$$ guess:
- if a fighter cannot have the dive advantage keep it at the highest altitude where it is still getting the best maneuver rating. You can't do much about a higher enemy diving on you but once that is over the maneuver part starts and with their better durability the allied A/C should be able to hold their own.

As you have been saying, better performing allied AC are being built and will change things considerably. I have some Spitfire V 's in Australia since late 1942 (stock scenario 1). I don't know how good they are in comparison to Tojos but I think they could help you if they are in your mix.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents. I'm reading every word and will continue to do so for another hour or two. Then I'll have to make some decisions about what to do.

BB, I had Spit Vs and some other fighters coming in from Oz. But there are so many subs lurking off Sabang that I had to divert the ships to a safter port to unload. The Spit Vs don't have the range to reach Sabang, so they'll have to serve as defense in Ceylon or perhaps in the Burma campaign. Some of the other fighters will be coming forward from Ceylon and the Assam region.

To this point it seems that even the Buffaloes, Dutch and Chinese P40Es, and Beaufighters are helpful, probably because of the quality of the pilots.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, gents. I'm reading every word and will continue to do so for another hour or two. Then I'll have to make some decisions about what to do.

BB, I had Spit Vs and some other fighters coming in from Oz. But there are so many subs lurking off Sabang that I had to divert the ships to a safter port to unload. The Spit Vs don't have the range to reach Sabang, so they'll have to serve as defense in Ceylon or perhaps in the Burma campaign. Some of the other fighters will be coming forward from Ceylon and the Assam region.

To this point it seems that even the Buffaloes, Dutch and Chinese P40Es, and Beaufighters are helpful, probably because of the quality of the pilots.

You can put bob-carrier fighters on a carrier (be sure to take off 2x their number of carrier planes first!) and fly them off to Sabang, but it would be a one-way trip because they cannot land on a carrier.

[Canoerebel]

witpqs, say what? "bob-carrier fighters"? What's dat?

I think you're saying that certain land-based squadrons can be loaded onto a carrier and then flown to a land base. Of course, I know that a Marine Corsair squadron can do so. But are you saying that, say, Hurricanes or SpitVs can? (If I knew what you meant by "bob-carrier" I wouldn't have to ask.)

[Lecivius]

I'm hoping someone smarter than I can chime in on why his raid detection is so low. I'm not the radar gronnard that some are, but the multiple CPS-1 coverage should be giving more than 6 minutes warning of something at 36k altitude.

[IJV]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

witpqs, say what? "bob-carrier fighters"? What's dat?

I think you're saying that certain land-based squadrons can be loaded onto a carrier and then flown to a land base. Of course, I know that a Marine Corsair squadron can do so. But are you saying that, say, Hurricanes or SpitVs can? (If I knew what you meant by "bob-carrier" I wouldn't have to ask.)

non-carrier. You can load any fighter groups (at least, probably non-naval DB and FB groups as well though I couldn't say offhand) regardless of their being carrier capable or not onto carriers for transport, they won't be instantly available as they all disable as part of the loading process and have to repair, but the aircraft can fly off the carrier out to transfer range. Being carrier capable just means they can land back on the carrier.

[Canoerebel]

I'll check the quality of the base force commanders. In that regard, should I be looking for officers with high "Land" or high "Air" ratings. I guessing the former, but I had better not leave it to guessing.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

witpqs, say what? "bob-carrier fighters"? What's dat?

I think you're saying that certain land-based squadrons can be loaded onto a carrier and then flown to a land base. Of course, I know that a Marine Corsair squadron can do so. But are you saying that, say, Hurricanes or SpitVs can? (If I knew what you meant by "bob-carrier" I wouldn't have to ask.)

I've flown lots of P-40s off of CVEs to new islands. Works great, cuts the time to get there by a lot, and you don't have to dock to unload at a place short on docks. You do have to risk the CVEs.

[Canoerebel]

I'm assuming the limited capacity of the CVE effects which squadrons (how large) can be used?

Will CVs also work?

[JeffroK]

Re JIII's "FURBALL"

Dont forget FOW, you may not be seeing accurate numbers of japanese losses, likewise JIII may be seeing exaggerated Allied losses.

[Canoerebel]

This campaign may turn pretty radical.

Imagine if I can boost my fighter numbers at Sabang by 250 or 300. I probably have that many in India and Assam. Some of these are Chinese Vanguards and other stuff that I wouldn't use. But there are 75 P39Ds, 16 Spitfires, probably 75 Hurricanes, and perhaps 45 Martlets. Most of these aren't tier one fighters, but they have good pilots and will take some of the pressure off the F4Fs and P40Ks, which are still the backbone of the Allied fighter corps there.

It would be whacky to strip India and Assam (especially Colombo, which is vital to this campaign). But we're getting down to brass tacks here. It's only about seven weeks until the Hellcats become available. I'd do almost anything to keep Sabang operational.

As I've said so many times, I think the Hellcats are the key to the campaign. When they come online in numbers it should be much harder for Japan to fight over the base. So if the base is still in Allied hands and in good enough shape to support combat ships and ground troops, then Sumatra gradually changes over to an offensive position. Eventually LBA assumes Sabang's defense, the Hellcats (or most of them) return to the carriers, the Allies begin to look at retaking some of the Nicobars and other bases, and John faces a growling and growing menace close to his heartland. 4EB are a threat to Singers and Palembang.

So I'll do nearly anything to keep Sabang in Allied hands and operational.