The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

2/12/43

After four nights of keeping watch, the settlers are exhausted. Some are even hallucinating, seeing "wagons" out on the praire and the like. The Comanchees had attacked that night and both sides had suffered casualties. But Clint wasn't sure exactly what had happened - there was too much danger to leave his post to ask around. For now, he'd have to make decisions based on incomplete and sometimes contradictory information.

Battle of Sumatra: I think I encountered a sync bug - or maybe not. Maybe I was hallucinating or dreaming. There were two things that I thought I witnessed in the replay that didn't match up with what I saw when I opened the next-turn file. To wit: I thought I saw Judys from an IJN carrier damage or sink an xAK west of Sabang, but now there's no sign of a carrier TF nor any sign of an xAK damaged or sunk. Very strange. More importantly (to me, in my mania), I thought the Allies well handled the third-successive day of sweeps at Sabang. I thought the Intel Screen would show lopsided losses for Japan. Instead, they show about 1:1 losses. That's tough.

The day began with three IJN destroyers raiding Sabang. They first encountered a TF of five USN destroyers (rickety old ones), sinking one. One Jap DD was badly damaged, another modestly so. The radiers also tangled with the BB Indiana TF to no real effect. I'm not impressed with how my ships handled these encounters (and one several days ago), so I've swapped them from "in port" to "patrol do-not-react."

These recon raids may mean John's ready to send his his BBs and other ships. He should win that battle simply by the weight of ships he can bring, though hopefully the Allies ships and mines will buy enough time time to bring in reinforcements. BB Washington is inbound from Capetown. CAs and CLAAs are either enroute or at Ceylon waiting for an all-clear (what about that mirage carrier sighting???). Also, the Allies have ten Fletchers at Colombo and Capetown upgrading. This was not an opportune time to upgrade....but they'll begin to come "on line" for service in about five days to 15 days. I think Arleigh Burke will take command of a stout Fletcher + CA TF in a few weeks.

Of course, the IJAAF sweeps are the most important thing. By my count, there were two groups of Tonys (30 and 14 aircraft, which is considerably less than yesterday) and 32, 36, 20 and 18 Tojos. I "think" (sync bug + FOW really have me confused) that the Allies downed about 45 of these aircraft. That's three consecutive days of sweeps. He's never done four, and I'm hoping he'll stand down for rest. But he might also send everything he's got. Very tense.

The Allied fighter corps is beat up. I "think" I lost about 30-35. At the start of the day, I had 278 ready to go (plus 100 in maintenance). Tomorrow there will be about 249. The losses are particularly worrisome for the P40Ks, which is generally a workhorse for the USAAF. Those are down to 55 from 69 yesterday (with lots in the shop). That's a steep decline. The F4Fs are down from 110 to 100. Not critical. The Corsairs, P38Gs, Buffaloes and Beaufighter numbers are steady. The P39Ds were roughed up (down from 27 to 17) as were the P40Es (29 to 21).

It'll be days before reinforcement squadrons are ready to move in. For instance, the Calcutta squadron that swapped a few P40Es for 11 P38Es two days back still have zero servicable aircraft. I have similar situations with Spit Vs, Kittyhawk IIIs, and some Buffaloes. I'm guessing three or four days before some of these can begin to move forward. That's one reason I'm hoping John will rest his fighters.

The raids are still reaching Sabang before the CAP scrambles. The Combat Report indicates things like "6 minutes to target." I dunno why. I have radar. The base is in magnificent condition and well staffed.

More merchant ships have reached Sabang (this last week has been suprisingly successful in that regard). The base now has 292k supply with two more small TFs just a day or two out. (But what about that mysterious carrier sighting????)

Sabang airfield is 8.92 - three or four days from reaching 9. The forts are at 4.24.

The Japanese are bombing Langsa airfield without opposition. But supply is flowing to the garrison and then flowing on to the big stack in the hex to the south. Allied forces in Sumatra are flush with supply.

DEI: The USN DD raiders are all out of harm's way and in the IO. They'll be back later to see if John is keeping house right. Meanwhile, the fuel is about sucked dry from Bandjermasin. There's 1.5k left and four subs are heading there to top off. I think there was 6k when the doughty Dutch guerillas took the vacant base two weeks ago. I'd like to use it all and leave John with nothing but a smile.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

The CPS-1 radar was not early radar. It was mid-late war radar. Used in Normandy, it was picking up German movement over Germany with high precision, and was in use into the early 50's. I found a reference to a thread in a Matrix forum on various radars. I'm gonna try to hunt it down today, work allowing.

<edit>

I have found the following, but it only refers to fire control, not air search.

tm.asp?m=3684150&mpage=1&key=radar&#65533;

<edit>

I can't find it Hopefully Alfred will stumble across this, he is far better versed than I at such things.

For radar operation, this is a better thread to quote.

tm.asp?m=3538438&mpage=1&key=radar&#3539048

As usual look for my posts and read the links I provide.

There is a possibility built into the algorithm that having a radar set present gives a worse outcome than if you had no radar present at all.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

Thanks Alfred.

[X(]

[Alfred]

I don't have time now to look closely at your setting etc but a few brief comments.
&nbsp;
1.&nbsp; As of patch 7, aviation support is:
&nbsp;
(a) no longer capped at 250 for a human player
(b) doubled at a size 8+ airfield
&nbsp;
3.&nbsp; If all your aviation support is contained within the 2 USAAF and 1 USN Base Forces, you are seriously short of aviation support.&nbsp; Those 3 BF will give you only at most 156 Av Sup.&nbsp; Doubling it means you only have 312 Av Sup to service almost 400 fighters at Sabang plus whatever other aircraft you have located there.
&nbsp;
4.&nbsp; Radar performance depends in part on the experience level of the unit which has the radar set.
&nbsp;
5.&nbsp; The CAP settings you have mean there cannot be any defending fighters already in the air to meet the afternoon sweeps.&nbsp; At 90% CAP you get a large mass to meet morning sweeps but nothing will be left for the afternoon.&nbsp; A 50% CAP means a smaller mass to meet the morning sweeps but some available mass for the afternoon sweeps.
&nbsp;
Alfred

[Lecivius]

Thanks Alfred. I appreciate your insite. I sure wish I knew how you searched these out, but I'm glad your here [;)]

[Canoerebel]

The Allies have tremendous AV support in Sumatra - 1170 (yes, 1170) at Sabang and 225 at Langsa. In part, this is because the Allies took other bases but have gradually pulled back into a final perimeter.

The AV support includes at least two Air HQ at Sabang and one at Langsa.

After receiving good insight from the Peanut Gallery yesterday, I modified CAP settings to 60% with 10% rest (with a few exceptions). I wanted to see how this change played out, but the possible Sync issues and FOW have me very confused about exactly how the sweep vs. CAP combat played out yesterday. I'm erring on the side of taking the "bad" numbers. If so, I'm wondering if the new settings played a part. But I'm going to give them at least one more day before coming to any early conclusions.

[1EyedJacks]

I like to leave my high CAP at 80/20 or 90/10 when I'm covering against sustained enemy attacks and my low CAP at 50%. This means I get a better attack on the first phase but the second phase is light. Note that I always seem to get a few AC up in the event of a second phase attack.

When my High CAP starts building up fatigue/disruption I swap them out with a different air group. Do you have that luxury?

Just curious - can you get in a few AA units to help out in defending your airfield/base?

[Lecivius]

I do not have the manual before me, so please bear with me for inaccuracies. And if I am hijacking this in any way, let me know and I will shut up. But these sweeps and raid times make no sense from what I am reading. Per the information provided in Alfreds link...

"Look for JWE's post. Pretty clear from his post that radar can impact on CAP and naval combat. Nothing else is covered. This is quite consistent with the manual.

5. On 28 September 2009, another key dev, TheElf stated the following:

"Radar detects Airplanes. The longer the range the sooner it does so. The higher the effect the more accurate the data and the better your CAP will perform. There really isn't much more to it."


So Longer range & higher alltitude should be providing better data in some type of format. And the CPS-1 radar was a darned good radar set for that time frame, some of the best of the war for mobile air search. I know in game terms that does not matter, just bearing it in mind.

This is from wiki, so my numbers may be off somewhat;
Cruise speed: 249 mph at 13,125 feet 400 km/h at 4000 meters

Assuming these fighters were at cruise speed on approach, and at or above angels 36

1st raid
5 minutes 21 miles out

2nd raid
12 minutes 50 miles out

3rd raid
4 minutes 17 miles out

4th raid
11 minutes 46 miles out

5th raid
3 minute 13 miles out

6th raid
4 minutes 17 miles out

So, with 6 quality air search radars over Sabang, and completely discounting the ones at Langsa (comms blackout, radio failure, asleep at the wheel, etc.) the best air search radar of the time, on full alert, really did diddly squat? I'm not screaming "BUG!!", but I can't help feeling we are missing a VERY important piece here in the defense of Sabang.

[Alfred]

Need to factor in experience.&nbsp; A&nbsp;significant under the hood factor.
&nbsp;
Another factor taken into account for warning times is the cruise speed of the enemy raid.&nbsp; Another under the hood factor.
&nbsp;
Alfred

[Canoerebel]

I'm adding your thoughts about CAP percentages and heights etc. to the grist mill. Lots of good suggestions/insights given the past few days. I'll be doing some experimenting. But I don't have the luxury of getting too fancy what with an all-out air war ongoing and crescendoing right now.

I have lots of AA units at Sabang. The base shows "Flak 101." By comparison, Ramree Island shows "Flak 33" and John's given up bombing it even though it doesn't currently have any fighter protection. However, most of the flak units at Ramree are "heavy" while only one at Sabang is "heavy." I'm hoping, though, that the presence of three or four USA "coastal artillery" flank units (I think that's the right term) will prove effective.

When John finally breaks through my CAP the AA is going to play a big role. But to this date, he hasn't broken through, so I don't have any feel for how the AA will perform.

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

I like to leave my high CAP at 80/20 or 90/10 when I'm covering against sustained enemy attacks and my low CAP at 50%. This means I get a better attack on the first phase but the second phase is light. Note that I always seem to get a few AC up in the event of a second phase attack.

When my High CAP starts building up fatigue/disruption I swap them out with a different air group. Do you have that luxury?

Just curious - can you get in a few AA units to help out in defending your airfield/base?

[Canoerebel]

Here's one thing I noticed. While I'm only getting 4-6 minutes notice of the IJAAF sweeps of Sabang, I'm getting 30 minutes notice of Japanese air strikes at Langsa (Helens, Sallys etc. escorted by Tojos and Zeroes)

At Lansgsa, I have one USAAF base force with two of those CPS-1 radar units. That's 1/3rd the number at Sabang, plus Langsa is much closer to the enemy bases. So the odds of getting good warning at Sabang should be much higher, shouldn't they?

Is the nature of the mission the difference? IE, are bombing missions getting detected much further out, sweeps much closer in? If so, is this WAD?

[Lecivius]

I would be curious as to any differences between the Sabang base forces and the one at Lansgsa. As I said, we have to be missing something. And only a fool argues with Alfred. So a line by line stare & compare would be helpful, even if it does give a small migraine. I know of no reason a sweep gets a lower detection threshold. Bombers are larger, but TheElf makes no mention of that. I need to look in the manual when I get home to be more sure.

Sorry I'm not being more helpful [:(]

[Canoerebel]

You're being helpful -and kind to give it this much attention.

The USAAF base force at Langsa has two CPS-1 radar units. Three base force units at Langsa have two each of those same units. I'll check in a moment for any other differences (especially experience and morale), but I doubt there's anything noteworthy.

My hunch is that the radar are detecting bombing missions but not sweeps. Just a hunch, but it's a hypothesis that bears scrutiny.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a line-by-line comparison of Sabang and Langsa giving base force/radar information plus "time to target" info for raids this turn.

Langsa - only 30 base supply due to frequent bombing, but each unit is fully supplied

119 USAAF B.F. - 2 SCR 270 radar, Experience 58, Morale 97
175 USAAF B.F. - 2 CPS-1 radar, E. 48, M. 90
175 Wing (Aussie) - two observers, E. 64, M. 95
110 USA B.F. - one observor, E. 60, M. 64

The following raids occur in "Thunderstorms"

1. Sweep by 13 Zeroes at 29k, 10 minutes "time to target" (t2t)
2. 52 Helens and Sallies unescorted, 15 k, 30 min t2t
3. 9 Zeros, 40 Helens and Sallies, 11k, 21 min
4. 9 Z, 11 Sallies, 11k, 18 min.
5. Sweep by 5 Tojoes, 29k, 47 min
6. 9 Z, 8 Sallies, 15k, 8 min

Sabang - flush with supply and support and everything else a man could want

118 USAAF B.F. 2 CPS-1, 59 experience, 99 morale
138 USA B.F. 2 observers, 49, 99
139 USA B.F., 2 observers, 47, 99
140 USA B.F., 2 observers, 43, 99
178 USAAF B.F., 2 CPS-1, 41, 99
221 USN B.F., 2 CPS-1, 45, 99
Also several Aussie "Wings" with observers

The following raids occur in "Moderate Rain"

1. 30 Tony, 35k, 6 minutes
2. 32 Tojo, 32k, 6 min.
3. 36 Tojo, 32k, 6 min
4. 20 Tojo, 30k, 13 min
5. 14 Tony, 32k, 46 minutes

On average, the sweeps get far less notice. But there are the occasional exceptions, like that last Tony sweep.

I can't detect a hard and fast rule here. But it seems to me like sweeps aren't detected by radar as well as raids are. That could be a function of the game not WAD or a function of speed (sweeps faster than bombers) or something else.

[Canoerebel]

John told me this morning that he had done two turns (this game and his game with NYGiants) in a short time. So I don't think he got fancy - IE, probably no complicated set of orders issues. So I don't really expect a big naval battle at Sabang tonight. And he probably either left his fighter sweep settings as is or stood them down. I hope its the latter.

I made a mistake yesterday in setting height on my P40Ks at Sabang. I meant to set them at 20k (highest for optimal maneuverability) but they're all at 29k. That might explain why they suffered more losses than expected. I've re-set them and hope for better next turn.

[JeffroK]

Could be a really dumb thought, is JIII using LRCAP on Sabang and Escort on Langsa???

I'm unsure about LRCAPing an enemy base.

[Lecivius]

I came home & did a cheesy 'sandbox'. I put a lvl 7 allied AF on Pagan, 100k supply, & 3 BF for 6 CPS-1 radars. No fighter coverage at all. I put a 36 group of Helen's, and a 32 group of Tojo's on Saipan. Five raids for each group, 1 at 28-33k to cause the algorithm to hopefully change. All 10 raids were seen 10 minutes out. Totally unscientific, but all I have time for.

[1EyedJacks]

Hey Alfred, will radar increase the effectiveness of Canoerebel's AA units also? Maybe this is something that you know is "under the hood" also? It seems like it should - especially if you get a feel for how far out the enemy aircraft are, the direction they are coming in from, and their altitude and speed...

I see a lot of info regarding Radar and CAP, Night Fighters, and Naval use but I didn't see anything in the manual regarding AA.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Need to factor in experience.  A significant under the hood factor.

Another factor taken into account for warning times is the cruise speed of the enemy raid.  Another under the hood factor.

Alfred

[1EyedJacks]

7.4.1.1 CAP AND RADAR.
Radar plays a significant role in the way CAP behaves. Historically, it allowed for more warning time to scramble, an optimum altitude for an intercept, and provided descriptive updates as to the position of a targeted raid.

When a raid is detected a “First Detection” message is generated and a time stamp, notes a T0. From T0, the cruise speed of the raid’s slowest component is used to generate a time until over target. When combined with the distance at which the raid was first detected. This time-distance routine is checked against the “time to climb” of the scrambling fighters and their various delays depending on their state of readiness. In game terms the EXP of the Radar operator can also positively or negatively modify the result of a CAP’s intercept. Additionally, Radar cannot detect raids below the horizon or without Line-of-Sight. This means altitude settings are important to first detection of a raid.

Without radar this time distance routine is absent and first Detection is usually when Coast Watchers, Observer Corps, or the Airborne CAP first sights a raid. Fighters in a ready status will be lucky to get airborne in time to hit the raid as they egress the target area, but follow on or subsequent raids will be more likely to face larger CAPs, once alerted, than the first raid of the day.

The altitude at which CAP is assigned is important in the game. As CAP and escorts engage, the individual planes will be scatter over several altitudes. For example if a CAP plane dives on an Escort at 10K’ from 15k’, the dive may take the CAP pass 10K’ leaving it open to be also dived on from an Escort at 15K’.

[Canoerebel]

I don't think radar affects AA. I read through much of the information suggested by Alfred. In several places there were clear statements to that effect.

Did you catch Alfred's comment that due to the peculiarities of the radar algorithm, there may be instances in which you're better off not having radar! (At least, that's what I understood him to say.) There's been no further explanation or elaboration on that point, but I hope there will be.