The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lowpe]

This AAR needs pictures![:)]

The Indiana in action!



Well, I guess she didn't fire her guns yesterday, but still, a pretty awesome picture.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Lowpe. Pictures are indeed worth a thousand words. In this case, bringing life to an AAR.

The Indiana TF includes CL Cleveland, CAs Wichita, Quincy and Hawkins, and seven or eight DDs (none Fletchers). Night experience is mostly 60 to 70. All captains are good. Ching Lee and his 81 naval rating commands.

When John comes, I think he'll bring in CAs and DDs first followed by a massive BB TF. No matter how good the Indiana TF does it should be overwhelmed by sheer weight of numbers. But John may take enough lumps to dull the tip of his speer, and his ships should have to retire to replenish.

Fingers crossed.

[zuluhour]

It has been rare in my games to see the big ships exchange pleasantries, I'm all ears.

[Canoerebel]

All detectable vibes suggest the naval battle will take place tonight. If so, I wonder if John will be able to withhold making a "spoiler" comment in his email. My guess is: No.

[JeffroK]

See post 3971, page 133
Not much really.

[Canoerebel]

No, 2977 on page 100 is the one about my night-bombing conversation with John (I quoted that post up above on this page).

[Canoerebel]

The first month on the trail, Clint had scouted around the wagons each night and never felt the least fear. Now, each night, he crouched low, paused often, and felt the skin on the back of his neck crawl. It was the eeriest of feelings to know the enemy was out there, out there in numbers, and could fall upon him at any moment, coming quickly and quiet like a red-tail upon a cottontail. Skin crawling on the back of the neck was the feeling of looming death.

2/17/43

Battle of Sumatra: To my surprise the Japanese did not come today. No combat TFs, no bombardment TFs, no sweeps. Instead, John posted the KB just west of Sabang (too close, in fact, as he lost eight Jakes that flew too close to the big base. And he flew big bombing missions against Langsa. I think the effort here is to flush the Allies from Sabang if possible. But there's to be no flushing now. There's no retreat from the Alamo. We stand and fight, win or die.

The RN CA TF has replenished and is ready to fight. It's a small TF - the Brit cruiser and a small RN DD and a smaller Dutch DD. But the presence of that third combat TF makes me feel a little better. After more thought, I decided to leave the Allied combat ships on patrol in port.

There are no more than 500 fighters at Sabang. In fact, there are enough that I may begin sending some of the F4Fs back to their parent carriers. Not yet. But perhaps soon.

The right amount of supply trickled out of Sabang to Langsa, so those troops are ready to go.

USN Subs: Whale picked off the xAP she damaged yesterday right off the coast of China.

[Canoerebel]

An hour ago, John sent an email that he was running the turn. He said it "should be exciting" (thanks for the spoiler). If the turn turns out good for him, or eventful but undecisive, I'd expect him to make a flurry of posts in his AAR within the hour.

Oddly, he sent an email last night indicating he would be running the turn shortly. I didn't hear from him during the night, nor until this morning's email. That's unusual for him. It would be contrary to his nature to go to bed without running a turn that he felt would be exciting. So that has me puzzled.

But I keep envisioning four TFs of IJN DDs coming into Sabang, causing the Allied TFs to shoot all their ammo. Then in come the cruisers. Then in come the battlewagons. The thought makes me nauseous.

But then I think about all those mines at Sabang and wonder what effect they might have, ranging from none to dramatic. Then I don't feel so nauseous.

But mostly, I feel pretty nauseous.

Let's see what happens. [X(]

[BBfanboy]

Mines that the enemy doesn't know about tend to catch a few ships in the first enemy TF to enter the area. After that, the enemy knows about the minefield and avoids it most of the time. I am not sure about the enemy detection/avoidance of multiple minefields in the same hex. In another thread Alfred posted that minefields are marked by the AI according to date laid and (IIRC) mine types. So if you laid the mines on different dates the AI could treat it as multiple minefields.

[Canoerebel]

Email just in from John: "I don’t usually send just the 001 but here it is. This will take me quite a while to do orders. It is a LONG turn!"

Usually I know from the email how the turn turned out (John is not very good at concealing his emotions. The lack of excitement here gives me some hope. But that may just be hope setting me up for a big disappointment.

I'm running the turn now. Back in an hour or so.

[Canoerebel]

Very tough turn for the Allies, judging by the movie. But I don't have the turn file yet, so some things are yet unclear. Here's the nitty-gritty:

1. At least three IJN TFs come to Sabang, including a CL/DD TF, a big BB combat TF (three, I think Yamato, Nagato and Fuso), and then a bigger bombardment TF with five BBs. At least four Allied subs take shots at escorting DDs, without success and without slowing them down. The patrolling PT boats don't engage and thus don't slow them down.

2. The Yamato TF combat TF meets the Indian combat TF first. The Japanese cross the T. The combat is heavy and lasts a long, long time. Indiana is sunk. One IJ BB suffers "heavy fires, heavy damage" and another "heavy fires." Yamato escapes major damage. CL Agano is sunk as is an IJN DD. CAs Quincy and Wichita take heavy damage. Note that the Japanese did not bring heavy cruisers. Overall I think the Indiana TF handled this combat relatively well.

3. I lose track of things a bit after this - the IJN CL/DD TF and I think part of the Yamato TF then square off against the two remaining Allied TFs - one of three USN DDs and one of CA Dorsetshire and two small DDs. Japan gets the better of these clashes, sinking Dorsetshire and possibly a DD or two. I think the Allies sink a DD or two.

4. Then comes the big bombardment TF. Nothing much left to oppose them, though I think there is at least one "striking mine" sound. The bombardment is nuclear. I noticed that 29 F4Fs were destroyed on the ground. If that's representative, the losses must be very hight. At least one Japanese TF ended up two hexes from Sabang, but my TBFs, set to range two, didn't fly. So I think the airfield must be in bad shape.

5. In retiring, a bunch of TFs tangle again, most with spent ammo, but the Allies seem to get the worse for this too.

6. I don't know how badly the IJN BBs were damaged. I think one may go under (if "heavy fires/heavy damage" means what it used to). But John has alot to come back with. I'm hoping he has to repair to Singers to rearm, but he might have enough ammo left to come again tomorrow. I'm sure he'll bring whatever he has.

7. The Allies will have little if anything left to fight with at sea.

8. So this appears to be a pretty big Japanese victory. I'll report more when I've gone through the turn file.

[witpqs]

The replay produced the reports, so you can look at the combat report (just open/edit it).

I've found that even bombardments that were actually great get overstated in the animation and combat report. I do assume that your airfield is trashed, but usually the numbers of aircraft destroyed and damaged far exceed actual tallies, however bad those actual tallies are.

Sounds like Indiana kicked ass on her way out!

Good luck.

[Mundy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Sounds like Indiana kicked ass on her way out!

Yeah, that other BB is probably toast.

If you don't use it, Combat Reporter is very handy for this. I use it mainly to feed my AAR, plus it's handy to look up a previous turn. It also catches some of those fleeting messages and help identify enemy ships which hit mines. It helped me learn which of my amphib ships tore their bottoms open on the beaches. [:@] I probably use it more than Tracker. Tracker's main function for me is to let me know when LCUs reach their destination.

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Mundy

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Sounds like Indiana kicked ass on her way out!

Yeah, that other BB is probably toast.

If you don't use it, Combat Reporter is very handy for this. I use it mainly to feed my AAR, plus it's handy to look up a previous turn. It also catches some of those fleeting messages and help identify enemy ships which hit mines. It helped me learn which of my amphib ships tore their bottoms open on the beaches. [:@] I probably use it more than Tracker. Tracker's main function for me is to let me know when LCUs reach their destination.

Completely agree with Mundy. Combat Reporter is great. It doesn't add any new information, but it organizes it really well so it is easier to sift through.

[Canoerebel]

2/18/43

D+100: Today is the 100th day since Allied troops came ashore at Sabang. There were fireworks to celebrate. Both sides were bloodied. The Japanese inflicted potentially lethal blows to the Allies' ability to defend Sabang. And tomorrow is fraught with danger. Here's what I've seen.

Ships: The Allies lost Indiana, Quincy, Dorsetshire, and five small DDs (value range from 5 to 7). As best I can tell from the Intell Screen Ship Loss Points (which I think is usually completely accurate), Japan lost only about 50 points in shipping, though I'm not positive. I know CL Agano (40) points went down. I'm pretty sure that at least two 10-point DDs (good ones) went down - perhaps as many as four. I know a Japanese BB was damaged heavily, but the points total doesn't suggest she's gone down (yet). But Japan did lose four or five capital-ship aircraft. Agano might account for one or two of those. But I'm wondering about the others.

Impact: I don't think John suffered enough damage/losses to really blunt his bombardment capabilities. He can probably return with at least six of the eight BBs. He also has (I think) at least four CAs in theater. The big question is how quickly these ships can re-arm. If his ships can inflict more damage tomorrow things will be very bleak. The cobbled together defense at Sabang consists of CL Birmingham, DDs Isaac Sweers and Fortune, and a DMS. All are fully replenished. Birmingham has 20 Sys damage and shouldn't be committed, but I really have no choice. CA Wichita and CL Cleveland and some DDs are a hex or two north of Sabang. They are still in shape to fight (though modestly damaged) but need to return to Sabang to replenish and offer protection. If I was John, I'd send everything back and try to seal the deal.

Mines didn't do a thing! Just one exploded (959 are still there, one less than at the start of the day.

The airfield is in bad shape - 78 runway damage and about 56 airfield service. That's bad. Aircraft destroyed on the ground (according to the Intel Loss screen) was 145, though my count shows far less. Subject to the airfield allowing planes to fly, the Allies can put up about 260 fighters tomorrow. Again, were I John, I'd send everything I have now. So Allied AA had better lend more of a hand than the mines did.

The KB is just WNW of Sabang perhaps 10-12 hexes, blocking any reinforcement efforts. I have three crusier/DD TFs fanning out - just in case John moves his carriers in one direction, perhaps one of my TFs will have a window and route to sprint to Sabang.

On a postiive note, the bombardment barely touched supply and the ground troops.

SigInt the past three of four days consistently shows 19th Div. prepping for Sabang and aboard xAKs bound for Sibolga. This can only be one of two things: an invasion force ultimately bound for Sabang or John intends to use the jungle and yellow road to march up the west coast of Sumatra. The latter would take months, so I'd like to see it. An invasion will succeed if John has BBs present in number and unfettered access to the base. That's probably what he's seeking. He made substantial progress today, but he's not there.

What I really wish I knew was how much damage the IJN battlewagons took. If one was knocked out (or sunk), that's not such a great tally given what was expended in the effort. If three are knocked out of the campaign for a meaningful period of time, that would probably be a meaningful tradeoff. I'll know more when Yamato returns. I just hope that's not for five or six turns.

[Canoerebel]

Regarding Combat Reporter and similar things, I tried using them once (I think in my previous game vs. Panzerjager Hortlund). It was so clunky that I gave up.

I took a look at Intel Monkey a couple of weeks ago, but was daunted by the installation process or whatever it takes to get it where it can work.

I'm not computer savvy. I prefer using a pen and paper to glean nuggets from the info generated by the game. I would use a compilation program if doing so was effortless (no harder than looking at the combat report). But jumping through computer hoops wears me out.

[Lecivius]

I was sort of afraid this might happen. One battleship simply is not enough against the entire IJN, and that is what you are facing here. And in game the BB rules the waves. Without strike aircraft he can now pummel you at will. Mines never seem to do much against BB bombardments.

FWIW, you have his complete, undivided attention at Sabang.

[witpqs]

CR, my thoughts, and first some info.

• The Intel screen Ships Sunk tally is only accurate for your own side. Enemy ships sunk is subject to heavy FOW. The same is true for Tracker (I know you don't imbibe it).
• "Ground losses" on the Intel screen Air Losses tally do seem to be accurate and somewhat of an FOW leak.
• It sounds to me like 1x BB gone and 1x BB to repair at Singapore for a long time. Possibly gone if the fires got out of control, but likely to make Singapore.
• That DMS is very valuable as an invasion convoy mine-sweeping escort but useless to defend Sabang. Get it the heck out of there.
• Although I do not know what John is planning and he certainly could bring in a direct Sabang invasion as you say, the Sibolga route is better IMO than you seem to think. He can sacrifice damage to some under-prepared unit to land at and take Sibolga, then land the unit preparing for Sabang in good order. He only has to traverse one hex distance without a road IIRC, which will likely take about 6 to 8 days without Allied harassment by air strikes. The road is secondary, so max of 15 miles per day after that but for high quality troops (which I assume he would bring to bear) they should make the entire journey pretty smartly. You have held Sabang for 100 days now via counter-invasion, why would he need to worry about a handful of weeks when it means crushing the forces invested by the Allies in Sabang and securing that flank?
• You might try some sub laid mines in shallow sea or coastal hexes that IJN bombardment TFs will transit. Chances of a hit are low but they are quite low at Sabang too. An invasion convoy landing troops at Sabang would have a good chance of hitting mines, though.
• Can you speed up one or more timetables for operations elsewhere?
• It sure would be nice to get those carrier groups out of Sabang now!
• I'm sure you are making KB dodge subs. Luck happens...
• Get your troops back to Sabang and adjacent defense-friendly terrain hexes before they get further trashed at Langsa.

Just some thoughts. YMMV.

[Canoerebel]

I know what Japan lost now - CL Agano (35 points), two 10-point DDs, and one 7-point DD. I'll watch carefully the next few turns in hopes of seeing BB-type points added to that list.

Lecivius, yeah, Indiana was outgunned. My biggest hope was that mines would hurt some of the combat ships, then combat itself hurting others, and then a few TBFs (and/or subs) scoring hits afterwards. But it didn't work that way.

Next turn will be key, and John is doing that now (I think). If he closes the base by bombardment and/or bombing, then we enter a new phase of existence in which "end game" in Sumatra becomes a real possibility. If the Allies can nurse things along for a few days and kind of regain some equilibrium, then they've absorbed a powerful punch and are still standing.

Job one is to hold Sumatra at almost any cost. The IJN basically rules the seas in this area now, so that's seriously in jeapardy. Job two is to efficiently attrit the Japanese navy. This battle didn't really meet that objective, but the Allies remain very strong. The carriers, of course, are still in good shape.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, witpqs. Lots of good thoughts. A few aren't applicable for various reasons (for instance, John already controls Sibolga and the Allied troops at Langsa are in good shape and in jungle terrain). I do have subs scouring both sides of Sabang and hunting the KB. I think time is everything for John now. Marching from Sibolga should take a long time, especially if Allied bombers are operational. If they aren't - if the airfield is toast - then there were shorter ways for his troops to get to Sabang. So he's consigned them to a long march for nothing, I think. I can't speed up operations elsewhere - at least anything that would pose the kind of threat to John that would unsettle him. PP, carriers, carrier aircraft and available ground units are too low. But long-term is a different matter. (For that matter, I am employing a few small maskirovka's that probably have as much impact on John's psyche as anything I could credibly mount right now.)