Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis)

[timmyab]

Center

The Reserve front retreats another 40 miles because the terrain South of Smolensk is not good for defending. I did intend for Western front to defend the Besed river line with 21st army plugging the gap between the Besed and the Desna. After some thought I decided that I don't much care if 2nd PG group heads off towards Bryansk, but I definitely don't want it to turn the Southern flank of the reserve front. Therefore 21st army defends the Desna and the road to Bryansk is left virtually open. Again Bryansk acts like bait in a trap. All the industry is still in the area so it may be tempting, but cavalry lines the road to Bryansk so any thrust will need to be well secured at the flanks, probably requiring all of AGC's available mobile divisions.
Smolensk has a token garrison of one division (28 CV).
5th cav's foray into the Pripets is parried by Bobo so they retire to look for trouble elsewhere.

[timmyab]

South

The isolation of 1st PG this week means that I can continue defending in strength North of Cherkassy in the hope of delaying any crossing of the Dnepr for at least one more week. Even the Bazavluk river defenses may not be penetrated, although 1st pz did receive some air supply so I can't be certain. There are still 5 HI and 5 arm in Dnepropetrovsk, but the defenses in front of the city are strong with Vatutin commanding.

The sideshow at Odessa came a bit off the rails this week. A panzer corps was dispatched South to ruin my fun and yet another cavalry division bites the dust ( My cavalry losses are starting to mount up and I'll have to start saving APs to rebuild some of them. They're the best offensive weapon I have though so I'll keep putting them in harm's way. I'm not so bothered about the airborne brigades. I wont use them in an airborne role under the current rules so I consider them fairly expendable. The good news is that the pz corps that got diverted South may have made the difference in allowing me to isolate 1st PG.

I railed 11 armaments out of Dnepropetrovsk this week. The 5 HI came out of Gomel and Nikolaev because I think those cities are more likely to be overrun next week.
I will undoubtedly lose a lot more armaments factories than I used to, not only because HI is said to be more valuable and combat units are more expensive to rail but also because I want to save the majority of the vehicle factories (more received wisdom). I think the best that the Soviet player can do is to clear industry from where he doesn't want the Axis player to go and leave it be where he does want the Axis player to go. Using it as a kind of lure. For this reason I'm going to leave the Bryansk industry where it is.

Industry moved
11 Arm 5 HI

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: timmyab

Center

The Reserve front retreats another 40 miles because the terrain South of Smolensk is not good for defending. I did intend for Western front to defend the Besed river line with 21st army plugging the gap between the Besed and the Desna. After some thought I decided that I don't much care if 2nd PG group heads off towards Bryansk, but I definitely don't want it to turn the Southern flank of the reserve front. Therefore 21st army defends the Desna and the road to Bryansk is left virtually open. Again Bryansk acts like bait in a trap. All the industry is still in the area so it may be tempting, but cavalry lines the road to Bryansk so any thrust will need to be well secured at the flanks, probably requiring all of AGC's available mobile divisions.
...

really like this gambit with Bryansk, its tempting to defend there (all those wooded river lines) but it does take the Germans into a bit of a (short-term) dead end. Looks like you are trying to make him stretch his supply lines in some sectors (and of course units he commits into those sectors are then less mobile)?

[timmyab]

I do intend to defend the Desna river line South of Bryansk, I'm just guessing he wont have enough to make a secure bridgehead if he goes that way next week.
Yes that area is heading towards the Axis logistical dead zone so I want to encourage them there. Most importantly away from Moscow of course

[sillyflower]

Nice play nicely explained.

To lose one panzer group to isolation may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.

[HITMAN202]

The problems with this AAR (or all AAR's) is it's special game setting.. nonrandom weather, Soviet +1 defense and mild blizzard. It's impossible to compare AAR's unless 1) the settings are exactly the same and 2) the skill of each player is known. In Sillyflower/Brian, the impact of nonrandom weather gives Sillyflower a predictable supply line and a more aggressive advance. In Pelton/Briam random weather has severely disrupted Pelton's excellent plans, having an impact that has dramatically dulled his initial rapid advance. Granted the Germans benefit from random weather late'42 onward, but '41 sets the tone to the rest of the campaign.

The case with 1+ Soviet attack is similar. The ability for the Ruskies to open pockets (and isolate Pz penetrations in this AAR) is incredible. So the German player has to be far less aggressive in deep penetrations and secure pockets more completely. Similar issues of Soviet 1+ defense. Germans have to spice up the strength of each attack.

Finally normal versus mild '41 blizzard is the most extreme contrast. In normal blizzard games the Germans have to withdraw in open terrain thru late Jan/early Feb and hold with caution in other terrain, but in mild blizzard can hold fast in clear terrain (with some discretion) and even attack Feb '41 with success.

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202
The case with 1+ Soviet attack is similar. The ability for the Ruskies to open pockets (and isolate Pz penetrations in this AAR) is incredible. So the German player has to be far less aggressive in deep penetrations and secure pockets more completely.

My counterattacks in this game have all been comfortable victories, all over 2-1 final odds so would have succeeded without the +1 rule. I did discuss the rule before the game with Bobo because he wanted rid of it. I feel it's needed during the first blizzard if using the mild blizzard option because the mild blizzard is too mild otherwise and the Soviet offensive will not hurt the Axis player enough. It's still slightly too mild even with the +1 rule imo. The +1 rule is actually overkill during the Summer and I'd be happy to turn it off if that was an option. Unfortunately it isn't.

The problem is more to do with the combat system generally. Overall though the end result is about right I think. Soviet attacks in 1941 were violent and somewhat effective locally.

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: timmyab

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202
The case with 1+ Soviet attack is similar. The ability for the Ruskies to open pockets (and isolate Pz penetrations in this AAR) is incredible. So the German player has to be far less aggressive in deep penetrations and secure pockets more completely.

My counterattacks in this game have all been comfortable victories, all over 2-1 final odds so would have succeeded without the +1 rule.

Actually this is false now I come to check it. Some of them have succeeded only because of the +1 rule.
Because of the combat system though I do think that enabling Soviet attacks to succeed is important. You can't rely on purely defensive tactics because the combat system strongly favors the attacker. Virtually all your important wins are going to come from counterattacks.

[Disgruntled Veteran]

It would appear to me you've got the 41 campaign bagged against bobo. 2 pzg isolated is very nasty.

[HITMAN202]

The benefits of Soviet +1 attack is statistically massive, far more than what one's intuition would consider. A simple example would be a theoretical attack in which the Germen defender had is adjusted defense value range from 1 to 10 (1,2,3,4, etc) and the Soviet attacker's adjusted combat value 11-20 (11,12,13,14,etc). Without modifiers the soviet attack succeeds 76 % of the time, but with the 1+ attack bonus 100 % of the time. Granted this is an example to push my point, but the bonus is far greater than most would realize.

[timmyab]

Well I'm not sure about it being a massive benefit but I'll take any help I can get at the moment and Bobo does have the mild blizzard and non random weather in his favor already. He's doing fine anyway despite the setbacks.

Turn 7

North

The defense is set, all we can do now is wait. My main concern is to avoid getting too many units trapped against the Baltic. For that reason I've weakened the bit of the line that bulges out to the NW and moved those divisions East to give extra strength in depth. This pocket formed against the Baltic is quite a common feature of Luga line defenses and it's difficult to avoid completely but can be mitigated at least.

[timmyab]

Center

The Western front Retreated so fast this week that some stragglers got left behind.
I'm thinking of lobbying to have the map extended Eastwards because I'm afraid the urals wont be far enough

[timmyab]

South

I carry out my planned maneuver aimed at encouraging 1st PG to cross the Dnepr to the North of the Sula river. This would put two or three rivers between AGS and Kharkov and give plenty of time to evacuate the Donbass industry. Bobo is a good strategist though and I'm certain that he will force a crossing somewhere between Kremenchug and Zaporozhye. The Dnepr bend is heavily reinforced to try to prevent a crossing in this area or at least make it a difficult proposition. The river is much more lightly defended to the North. 5th army defends that sector and provides a flank and rear guard for 16th army.

Odessa has been bypassed by 11th army, I'll probably ship one division out of the city next week.

Dnepropetrovsk is cleared of industry and half of Zaporozhye is gone too.

Industry moved
7 Arm 8 HI

[Ketza]

Nice AAR. Leningrad defence looks solid.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Ketza

Nice AAR. Leningrad defence looks solid.

[&o] Ohh great one how you doing? [&o]

Ok when is MT going to post something?

[HITMAN202]

For the newer gamers Ketza is a WITE Hall of Fame inductee. Also MT ,the Aussie with a young family, is one of the very best. Sillyflower would not be sleeping as well in a contest with either. Ask Pelton.

[sillyflower]

When I played MT's Germans in the early days when I was a noob and before HQBU got throttled back, the game didn't last long enough for me to need any sleep. I probably wouldn't do much better now......

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: Ketza

Nice AAR. Leningrad defence looks solid.

Thanks. Good to see you here again.
I probably sent more stuff to Leningrad than I needed to. Either turn 8 or 9 I sent half a dozen good divisions to Moscow to help out down there. I Still expect to lose Leningrad in 41.

[Michael T]

I lurk. Almost tempted to dust of my WITE CD. Has the tinkering with the patches stopped yet?

[sillyflower]

Good to hear from you Michael. I think there have been a few Ashes series since we last corresponded.......

The answer to your qu is almost - the imminent .08 seems to be pretty much it