A Japanese Debacle - Sqz (J) vs. fcharton (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

I promised myself a model day so I won't complete the next turn until tonight.

I will update my operations in China and provide my thoughts on how the theatre will develop moving forward.

I also need to update the Central and South Pacific theatres, both of which have been largely ignored. It's time to address perimeter gaps in the Marshall and Gilbert Islands.

The Allies can easily use New Zealand as a staging point for Australia, so I'm not sure what to do about New Caledonia at this point. I need to take a peek and see what the Allies have been up to at Noumea. Has the base been reinforced? If it's been reinforced, do I weaken my position in Australia to take it? If Noumea is weakly held, I will capture it for the sole purpose of establishing naval search, as I can only provide a weak garrison.

I have to keep telling myself not to panic. I've accomplished much and the problem areas are more of my own doing than anything Francois has done. Of course I have gaps and a slow pace of advance considering I used six divisions for Australia. I knew I had to back fill the entire time, so why am I worried? This was the plan all along. I just have to remain focused and address the problems as I go. I think I'll feel much better when I get a foothold in Burma and Palembang wrapped up.

Consolidating the Empire just seems a little daunting right now.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I'd have to take a different tact in tackling Rangoon. Deception, finesse, something else ...

Rangoon is showing 70+ fighters as of recon this turn. Not insurmountable, but that still requires a large investment of Japanese fighters to deal with. I'm not at a stage where I want to go toe to toe trading air losses. Current production numbers of the Zero and Oscar are 100 and 150 respectively a month. Neither fighter has proven dominant and avoiding losses is a priority.

The Allied fighters at Rangoon are only a problem if I let them be. I think I can draw them out when my amphibious TF's approach Pegu. I believe my priority should be to CAP my amphibious TF's and once my troops are ashore, ignore the Allied fighters all together if possible. Francois loves to perform ground bombing missions with the Allied air force. To do that he needs sweeps and escorts and there will always be opportunities to set ambushes.

I've played a careful air war to date and the A2A ratio is well in my favour at 175:400. The difference in air loss points is only 110 points though, as FLAK and Ops losses are taking their toll and include mostly multi-engined aircraft.

As much as Rangoon will be a tough air fight, I won't throw away pilots and aircraft subduing the base. That's what the army is for. [:D]

So, you're taking a different approach as I would ... will be watching to see how you do.

[Lowpe]

I see no reason to panic! Yet.[:D]

You accomplished so much this game, without knowing the mod, it is very impressive![&o]

I don't think there is any exact strategy for Japan. The one I like best is slightly less than historical expansion and a fighting defense. However, we have games like that that went downhill first like with Spidery and Mr. Kane.

Face it, Japan is really tough to play. Unforgiving tough.[:D]

You bold move to knock Oz out looks good on paper but is tough to execute. No surprise there, I guess.

How is you strategic bombing coming?

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Unforgiving tough.[:D]

operative word: unforgiving.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I see no reason to panic! Yet.[:D]

You accomplished so much this game, without knowing the mod, it is very impressive![&o]

I don't think there is any exact strategy for Japan. The one I like best is slightly less than historical expansion and a fighting defense. However, we have games like that that went downhill first like with Spidery and Mr. Kane.

Face it, Japan is really tough to play. Unforgiving tough.[:D]

You bold move to knock Oz out looks good on paper but is tough to execute. No surprise there, I guess.

How is you strategic bombing coming?

In hindsight, I wonder what might have happened had I marched directly against Melbourne after capturing Sydney. At the time it felt too risky, but now I think that was perhaps the proper call. We'll never know now. [:D]

However, I have successfully mauled or destroyed at least half of Australia's starting 2000 AV, not to mention eventually quartering a good portion of its HI supply generating capacity.

Strategic bombing hasn't kicked into high gear yet. I lack the numbers of bombers and I have a nasty habit of capturing bases before destroying the industry.

I will begin to target more LI and resource centres and eventually set myself up to hit Melbourne, but against a soon to be level nine airbase it will be tough. Once I start moving west towards Melbourne, I'll have a better idea of what may, or may not, be accomplished in terms of strategic bombing.

I'm a conservative Japanese player as well and this is completely out of my comfort zone. I'm curious to see the state of the Empire in June, which is my own personal benchmark for assessing progress.

[SqzMyLemon]

To follow up, here's a little more detail on the Changsha area.

I have no intention of assaulting Changsha anytime soon. It would be the Japanese equivalent of the battle for Stalingrad. I will isolate the base and move on. Over time, I will bring in heavy artillery and conduct a bombing campaign to reduce the defences to the point when an assault could succeed. The timeline is fall or winter of 1942.

The priority remains Kweilin, Liuchow, Tuyun and Kweiyang.

A pocket is forming at Pingsiang which suits me fine. The Chinese units shown moving to, and occupying, the woods west of Pingsiang are the survivors of Kukong. I will conduct an assault in the woods hex to force the Chinese to retreat into Pingsiang proper, at least I hope they will, not being sure if they can retreat into a contested hex. Four of six hex sides at Pingsiang are already closed. If I can force all the Chinese units into the base then I will close the remaining two hex sides, provide a siege force and then move on. There are currently seven Chinese Corps, three HQ's and two base forces within the white ellipse of approximately 1000 AV.

The Chinese campaign isn't about destroying Chinese units at this time, but rather isolating them to be destroyed later after months of no supply have weakened their ability to resist. My priority remains to drive deep into China, and then backfill and destroy the Chinese forces.

As much as the Allied air force being active in China is a nuisance, I'm glad they are fighting forward. With Burma being clear right now, I'm sure Francois is importing supply. That is a concern, but somewhat offset by the fact that operating B-17's and conducting a steady bombing campaign will use up supply and eventually all those forts that are being built will have starved troops defending them. The key to China for me right now remains to reduce the supply capacity of the Chinese and let time weaken them to the point of collapse.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon


In hindsight, I wonder what might have happened had I marched directly against Melbourne after capturing Sydney. At the time it felt too risky, but now I think that was perhaps the proper call. We'll never know now. [:D]

L'Audace!

I would have gone for it. Keeping in mind this is an opening that I would not typically attempt, but if I did, then my mindset would have been "Go for broke!".

Going for Melbourne right away when you were very much in control of the initiative and the allies reeling ... it may very well have worked. low forts, low morale defenders ...
and the outcome of having taken both Sydney and Melbourne? Wow. Kidney punch for the Aussie's ... tough blow to recover from. Huge ramp up for you in the early game.
Having just Sydney though, pretty dang good.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

L'Audace!

I would have gone for it. Keeping in mind this is an opening that I would not typically attempt, but if I did, then my mindset would have been "Go for broke!".

Going for Melbourne right away when you were very much in control of the initiative and the allies reeling ... it may very well have worked. low forts, low morale defenders ...
and the outcome of having taken both Sydney and Melbourne? Wow. Kidney punch for the Aussie's ... tough blow to recover from. Huge ramp up for you in the early game.
Having just Sydney though, pretty dang good.

I think so too. The debacle at Rockhampton was the turning point in terms of my mind set. If I could have successfully landed the IJA 144th then it would have been a different story. The loss of the ability to get aircraft into Australia right when I needed them was a big deal. Opportunity lost, but there are still strategic goals I can pursue in Australia. At least the Allies are on my doorstep and I don't have to go chasing them. I have a few ideas yet to make Australia pay off, it all comes down to execution and what Francois does now, knowing that Melbourne is secure.

I shudder what Nemo would have said. I think he'd say you had him and blew it. [:D]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I shudder what Nemo would have said. I think he'd say you had him and blew it. [:D]

That would have been the 'polite' version. If he was "telling it how it is" ... oh, his lexicon is bit broader than that! [:D]

[SqzMyLemon]

Feb. 7/42:

A good turn for Japan.

Australia:

Seven Allied transports are sunk fleeing Brisbane.

Five Allied fighters are shot down and another three are Ops losses near Wagga Wagga. One Oscar is lost.

It appears Francois intends to counterattack in Australia. I'll provide a screenshot later, but a number of Allied units are spotted moving east along the rail line from Wagga Wagga towards Japanese positions.

The Australian forces that were hounding my defeated forces from Rockhampton are now on the receiving end themselves. They try a counterattack near Bundaberg. A Japanese tank regiment is rushing to reinforce the 1st Recon. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 94,155 (near Bundaberg)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 1731 troops, 21 guns, 49 vehicles, Assault Value = 59

Defending force 885 troops, 4 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 35

Allied adjusted assault: 32

Japanese adjusted defense: 49

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
154 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
204 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
11th LH Motor Regiment
16th LH MG Regiment
14th LH MG Regiment
15th LH MG Regiment
Rockhampton RAN Base Force

Defending units:
1st Recon Regiment

Sumatra:

Medan falls easily with a token defence present. All good, the facilities are captured intact. IJA 38th Division will now prep for Port Blair. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Medan (46,76)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 13999 troops, 101 guns, 36 vehicles, Assault Value = 445

Defending force 4745 troops, 28 guns, 8 vehicles, Assault Value = 76

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 204

Allied adjusted defense: 17

Japanese assault odds: 12 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Medan !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), fatigue(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
120 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
2346 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 41 disabled
Non Combat: 65 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 20 (17 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 7

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
38th Division
55th Engineer Regiment

Defending units:
Medan Cdo
Van Aarsen Cdo
HQ TC Sumatra
223 Group RAF
1e-VLG-V Sup Afd
Medan Defenses
11 Battery/3 HAA

China:

Two squadrons of Hurricanes based at Changsha sweep Hankow. No CAP is present. Allied 4E's concentrate on hammering IJA 13th Tank Regiment in open terrain near Sinyang. Bomb away, because it's better than targeting my airfields.

A few ground combat AAR's follow:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 80,54 (near Hengyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 15148 troops, 163 guns, 55 vehicles, Assault Value = 480

Defending force 5023 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 106

Japanese adjusted assault: 431

Allied adjusted defense: 14

Japanese assault odds: 30 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
71 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Units pursuing 1

Allied ground losses:
2488 casualties reported
Squads: 57 destroyed, 65 disabled
Non Combat: 53 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 23 (5 destroyed, 18 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
3rd Tank Regiment
15th Division
13th Army
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
65th Chinese Corps
7th War Area

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 91,33 (near Paotow)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 13192 troops, 104 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 424

Defending force 5036 troops, 43 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 132

Japanese adjusted assault: 189

Allied adjusted defense: 257

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
85 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
173 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 38 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
27th Division

Defending units:
11th Chinese Corps

Good news in China. Five LCU's from the defeated Kukong force move freely into Pingsiang. Great! I will close the remaining two hex sides, lay siege and move on. This will free up a division for offensive operations.

I will now move to fully isolate Changsha by closing the west and northwest hex sides using sacrificial recon regiments. I will try to take Changteh, but not sure is two divisions will be enough.

The rest of the Japanese divisions in the area will now start moving towards Kweilin. In the meantime, I am slowly moving in additional aviation support and starting to prepare a strong response to the unescorted Allied bombers in China.

Thoughts:

The navy is redeploying and I am putting all the pieces together to deal with the DEI. I'm organizing the forces needed for Burma from all three services.

[ny59giants]

I would prep one or two divisions that you "may" use PP on in Manchuria and/or China for Chittagong and/or Cox's Bazar. Let Allied Intel throw him a small curve that he has to consider.

[SqzMyLemon]

I forgot to mention during the replay that a tan unit was spotted east of Wagga Wagga. So it appears the British are in Australia, but are they originally from the DEI or has elements of the emergency package arrived?

I sense opportunity in Australia if Francois goes on the offensive too soon. Things could get very interesting over the next few months if so.

[PaxMondo]

Yeah, even with the reinforcement package, brit and oz units are still brittle.

The question is: is he moving US units to OZ? that could create trouble for you ... especially if he move USAAF units there instead of India ...

[pontiouspilot]

Bundaberg.....make sure you don't allow your boys into the Bundaberg rum!!....it should be banned as contrary to UN rules of decency.

[SqzMyLemon]

Feb. 9/42:

China:

I might be reassessing my earlier comment regarding Allied 4E's targeting my LCU's rather than airbases. 13th Tank Rgt. is taking it on the chin. AAR's follow:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 13th Tank Regiment, at 86,47 , near Sinyang

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 11
B-17E Fortress x 9
LB-30 Liberator x 5

Allied aircraft losses
LB-30 Liberator: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 28 (18 destroyed, 10 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 13th Tank Regiment, at 86,47 , near Sinyang

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 6

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 13th Tank Regiment, at 86,47 , near Sinyang

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 2

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 5 (4 destroyed, 1 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 13th Tank Regiment, at 86,47 , near Sinyang

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 5 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Australia:

Japanese sweeps and air strikes against Wagga Wagga. Allied CAP is present in force. The losses on the day were 24 Japanese against 23 Allied aircraft. Unfortunately, the second bombing raid against Wagga Wagga resulted in the dreaded post-bombing air phase and that is where seven Sally's were lost. I was disappointed with the first sweep, but it's clear I'm up against the cream of the Allied fighter pilots. AAR's follow:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Wagga Wagga , at 85,167

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 42 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 45

Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 16
P-40E Warhawk x 14
F4F-3A Wildcat x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
H81-A3: 1 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
25 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 25000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Wagga Wagga , at 85,167

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 10
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 26

Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 8
P-40E Warhawk x 5
F4F-3A Wildcat x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Wagga Wagga , at 85,167

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 22
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 23

Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 6
P-40E Warhawk x 1
F4F-3A Wildcat x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 7 destroyed, 6 damaged
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed
F4F-3A Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Runway hits 1

The CAP includes fighters from CV Enterprise and AVG 1st Squadron. I'm going to continue sweeps tomorrow. I know American naval air is committed to Australia and Port Moresby and I've suspected the American carriers to be in New Zealand or Melbourne. If I can trust this report, I may have my answer.



If this is true, it opens a number of possibilities. First, I've worried about American CV's showing up in the DEI knowing that my carriers are tied to Australia right now. I've been rather cautious making aggressive moves in the DEI as a result, especially without an air umbrella provided by LBA, which despite being completely useless still requires me to go through the motions. I will now immediately move against Ambon, Kendari and Makassar. I'm waiting for one last division to load at Singapore, then the amphibious landings at Palembang are a go.

Here's my potential response to the American CV's being at Melbourne. I am going to move ground forces against Wagga Wagga in an effort to draw Allied bombers and fighters to commit to ground, escort and sweep missions from Melbourne. If I can draw the Allied air out, I plan on using five CV's to hit Melbourne's port. To me this is high risk. The potential to lose a lot of KB's aircraft and pilots is real, but do I dare pass up an opportunity to catch enemy carriers at port? Heavily damaging or knocking out a few carriers would make my life for the next few months so much easier. I'll see how the sweeps go tomorrow and what Allied fighters are committed. If striking Melbourne's port and catching the carriers is a possibility, I think the potential reward is worth throwing everything I have at it.

[Lokasenna]

Smaller LCUs are very vulnerable to bombing in open or light terrain. A few times, I destroyed entire RTA divisions in upper Burma before they could move more than a hex or two. Take care when you know bombing raids might happen.

Only go for the Melbourne job if you know he's disbanded in port, and can beat whatever CAP he has there. Also make a note of how many guns are present there... your flak losses could be really awful. The Aussies get more than a few good AA units, but I forget when they arrive.

[FeurerKrieg]

A safer course on Melbounre might be to pile up some submarines there. You don't even have to use long range boats since you have Sydney. I'm thinking about 30 subs should do it. After all, if you attack and spook the CV's out, that doesn't help much unless KB is sitting there ready to pounce.

But if you can get them, that helps a lot. Allied carriers out early gives you such a free hand everywhere.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Only go for the Melbourne job if you know he's disbanded in port, and can beat whatever CAP he has there. Also make a note of how many guns are present there... your flak losses could be really awful. The Aussies get more than a few good AA units, but I forget when they arrive.

Recon indicates 19 LCU's, 28660 troops, 292 guns and 462 AFV's. I worry that the British AA Bde. from the emergency package may be present. If Francois has sent the entire reinforcement package to Australia it could be trouble.

[crsutton]

Those Japanese tank units are brittle and easily chewed up by Allied bombers. Problem is that they have no AA assets. It is even more true for Allied tank units moving in the open at this stage of the war.

[SqzMyLemon]

I've fallen behind in the AAR, but there hasn't really been anything new to report. There has been some progress in Australia and China, but I'll update those theatres with screenshots over the weekend. I'm going to skip ahead five days to Feb. 14/42 where the big event was finally a Japanese landing at Palembang. I tasked two IJA Divisions to land at Palembang in two separate, staggered, amphibious TF's. Both were set to reach Palembang from Singapore in one day and begin unloading, only IJA Imperial Guards Division unloaded. The second amphibious TF loaded with IJA 38th Division reached Palembang in one day, but did not unload. It turns out that using two divisions was unnecessary as the Allied defence is weak. I will immediately turn IJA 38th Division around to unload at Singapore in preparation for assembling the Burma amphibious TF's. Back to the landing at Palembang. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Palembang (48,91)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1364 troops, 14 guns, 10 vehicles, Assault Value = 69

Defending force 10343 troops, 79 guns, 51 vehicles, Assault Value = 395

Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Assaulting units:
Lahat Cdo
Palembang Cdo
XI KNIL Bn /1
Palembang ML Base Force
Malaya Army
A-I-Ld AA Battalion
PBg-Ld AA Afd

Defending units:
Imperial Guards Div /7

In the DEI, two amphibious TF's will leave Manado tomorrow, one bound for Kendari, the other to reinforce the effort to finally take Ambon.

In the Indian Ocean northwest of Port Blair a British CV was spotted. My guess is the TF is being used to support further reinforcement of Rangoon. I've detached CV Kaga from KB and rendezvoused with the CVL's and CVE's at Babeledoab. This carrier TF is now off the coast of Tarakan and heading for Singapore. I'll use this carrier force to support the landings in Burma.