The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lowpe]

I can't help but wonder how your ships would have done if you simply left them in port under all that wonderful AA at Sabang?

I remember playing a game versus Commander-Cody and I had the Pearl fleet bottled up at Pearl, but subsequent strikes on Pearl where very costly for not the many hits. He then sortied the fleet, trying to breakout, and I sunk most everything. Everything big that is.[:)]

His ships would have survived had he merely stayed in port.

You probably have tons more AA than Pearl...at least I think so from the losses you are reporting when Japan did bomb Sabang.

[Canoerebel]

I've left most of the fleet at Sabang for that very reason. Only the fastest ships (pehaps a half dozen or so) are departing.

[JocMeister]

Was the 50 planes lost to flak KB planes or LBA?

Which ever it shows that you can absolutely do without air superiority. You can bet John is producing a huge amount of fighters...and not so many bombers. 50 bombers lost to AA in a single day is too much for him to sustain for long. AA is potent in DBB (on which RA is built). [:)]

[Canoerebel]

I think John lost 10 carrier strike aircraft (Jills, if memory serves) and 39 Helens and Sallys to flak, both at Sabang and at Ramree Island.

Just as you say, flak is much more powerful than in the old days (or the original scenarios, I should say).

[Lecivius]

I have stopped reading Johns AAR, as I have been posting in here. First time for everything, I guess [;)]

His aircraft production will outstrip yours pretty much throughout the game, but you already know this. Your AA will hurt any offensive attempts by his bombers, so the only thing you have to fear (and that's a strong word) are his BB runs. And you are already putting the hurt on that. Not as much as you want, to be sure. But it's there. I like your attitude of Hope For The Best, Plan On The Worst. I agree in pulling back on your fighters, if he is gonna nuke the place repeatedly it's a loosing proposition. Especially your carrier air arm.

Something to keep in the back of your mind is re-supply. You have a lot in here, but your gonna go through it. He is bound to set up LBA for naval interdiction to keep up the blockade so he can go play with his toys elsewhere. If you do hang on, this will be needed in @ 6-8 weeks or so. Something to bear in mind. And if he is in fact hurting for cruisers, those Kongo's are gonna have to go with KB. Same with his tin can's. He gets more of both in this mod, but the pool is only so deep. Keep on grinding. I hope you put a few more holes in his toys. I still think this was the right thing to do.

[Canoerebel]

I think John is using his cruisers as carrier escorts.

Unfortunately, bombardment TFs seem immune to mines, but perhaps Allied subs will get lucky. On the flip side, bombardment TFs wreak havoc on the airfield and support troops, but don't seem to touch fighting troops or supply.

I spent the weekend thinking about supply. At 266k, I should have enough to get me into April, which is the key. Eventually John will have to withdraw the KB. He'll probably begin to rely on nearby airfields to suppress shipping into or out of Sabang. But if the KB isn't in position, the Allies should be able to get supply in one way or another. John's going to have his hands full keeping the airfield closed. He'll have to use his BBs about once a week. I think bombers can't do it do to AA.

So supply should be fine until the time comes when I have the means to address it.

John is rampaging in SEAC at the moment and can justifiably feel pleased with much of what he's done. But I think he's going to discover that the situation is still much tougher than he's bargaining for - not just on the ground, but in the air and at sea.

Meanwhile, Friction remains my closest ally.

[Canoerebel]

2/26/43

Snarling and baring fangs, the pack of dogs had returned in the dark of the night. But they couldn't get at Clint. He had pulled back into his cave, stacked driftwood to bar entrance, and built a fire. He didn't want to use his pistol except as a last resort; he would need his last nine shells later, to bring down food. But the dogs feared fire above all else.

Battle of Sumatra: An interesting turn that confirms some things, reveals some things, and provides a bit of comfort during these dark days of siege.

No bombardment of Sabang. Enemy LBA - fighters and strike aircraft - come in numbers against essentially no CAP. Well over 100 bombers (mainly Helens and Sallys, but also some Bettys from Port Blair) strike without opposition...and score a single hit on the airfield. Flak claims 19 of the bombers. I'll count the numbers later, but if John sends 150 or so bombers against a base for one hit, he'll have to bring back the BBs (not that I relish taking that form of punishment, but it is important that he can't suppress Sabang by air). None of the ships at Sabang were touched. Mines still at 951. I forgot to check supply, but if it's not over 260k I'll post an addendum later.

The fast ships fleeing Sabang had interesting experiences. KB picked off DD Patterson. The lone APD tangled with part of the KB (three fleet carriers and a couple of CVLs and SIX CAs) just west of Sabang. The carriers are trailing a bit of smoke, so that TF isn't in pristine condition. Most of the Allies ships made it unscathed. John might chase them, but let him. If he's willing to expend the fuel for a few chicks it should benefit the Allies long term.

DD Fortune took the NW route straight at the KB position and dodged a strike by a second branch of the KB located west of Port Blair.

So, there are two enemy carrier TFs separated by about ten hexes. One branch is west of Sabang (Akagi, Zuikaku and one other fleet carrier) showing 122 F, 136 B, and 18 Aux. The other TF, which is NW of Sabang, shows 143 F, 121 B, 18 Aux. John must be convinced that my carriers aren't in the vicinity or otherwise unable to fight (due to lack of aircraft in all likelihood).

There also appears to be a stout combat (bombardment?) TF NE of Sabang on a NW heading. I can't figure this out. If its a bombardment TF inbound to Sabang its coming from an odd direction. If it hits Sabang, I tip my cap to John, because that's my Achillees heel. But the TF shows a NW heading as though John might be moving out into the sea lanes between Sumatra and Ceylon.

I'll be scouring the map next turn to see where the carriers and this combat/bombardment TF end up. John is probably focusing on Sumatra, as he darned-well should be. But if he's thrown the bit and is off on a raiding mission, I'll have to scramble to get out of the way.

Two USN DDs raiding near Cocos Island aroused a pack of Nells. One old DD went down.

Sabang airfield is still pretty messed up - 50+/50+ damage to both runway and service. So the engineers are having a tough go of it.

No sign of imminent enemy ground campaign or amphibious action (though my PBYs aren't doing their jobs well any more - probably morale hits after the bombardment experiences).

Very tense and interesting situation here, gentlemen.

[Canoerebel]

Following up on several points:

Sabang supply is 262k.

Large enemy merchant TF (search shows them as xAKs and APs) between Nias and Sinabang. I'll keep an eye on this - by next turn I should know if it is a Sabang invasion force (why it would come from that direction I'm unsure).

That combat TF NE of Sabang just has to be a bombardment TF inbound to Sabang, darn it. If it has any other mission, I'll be very happy.

[DW]

After you get your airfield/service repaired at Sabang, would it make sense to move some of your engineers to an adjacent hex, sparing them the disruption they take in bombardments, then moving them back once they're needed?

As I don't play the game, I don't know how long it would take them to make such a move. If it's only a couple of days it might be worth it.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I should be in good shape if John wants to go raiding, either via KB raid or deep thrust invasion. Either are possible, especially once/if he gets Sumatra wrapped up. Here's the situation:

1. The Allies are currently strongest in SEAC, both air force and ground troops. A KB raid here (Colombo, Bombay or Karachi would be the only sensible locations) is likely to give John a bloody nose. Ramree is almost invulnerable with 2x terrain and a heavy concentration of AA. It doesn't even need CAP to survive. John can invade en masse - Ceylon would be a worthwhile target for him. For reasons I won't go into, I'd love him to commit fully to an offensive campaign here. I'd gladly yield ground. I'd welcome it even at a cost. The cost to him would be high, it would take a lot of time, and he'd accomplish nothing of lasting value. I'd love to see him commit here.

2. Oz is stout but NZ is weak. Oz is the buildup area for the next Allied invasion and is flush with troops. Port raids by KB aren't a major concern. I have my ships pulled back from likely targets (Perth, Sydney, Auckland. They'll flee to map's edge if necessary. Eventually the Allied carries will shift over this way (and some of the fighter squadrons from SEAC).

3. He can move on Suva or PP or any other group of islands, perhaps even Pearl Harbor. He has the power to overwhelm at any location. Not really worth it for him to get bogged down that far from home, I'd think.

4. West Coast is very strong now. He'd risk major damage to the KB if he raids there now.

I thought you were low on fighters except at Sabang?

It seems you are strong everywhere. why are you worried?

IMVHO JIII has wasted too much time with Sabang and should have aimed at cutting it off, hitting Ceylon & the Indian ports to stop supply runs and force you to split your defenders. Sabang is only an air threat, which he should have concentrated on weeks back, now its too big and while his BB runs (which I think should have been smaller, 2BB, and more often) work they attrit his BB force.

Dont forget, dont plan for what you would do, plan for what a frustrated JIII would do.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: DW

After you get your airfield/service repaired at Sabang, would it make sense to move some of your engineers to an adjacent hex, sparing them the disruption they take in bombardments, then moving them back once they're needed?

As I don't play the game, I don't know how long it would take them to make such a move. If it's only a couple of days it might be worth it.

Great idea. But there isn't sufficient time. It takes four or five days to repair damage and then the BBs come back on day six.

I did move 1st Marines out of the hex some time back when I was worried that bombardments would mess up the fighting units. But they don't.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not low on fighters anywhere, though quality is an issue in some places. But I think that will change soon. The Hellcat plus Commonwealth fighters will help me juggle things and begin to spread the quality a bit.

There are things to worry about (especially, as I posted above, an accident with my carriers or a decision by John to focus next on the same region that I'm focusing on - it takes a long time to preposition ships and ground units, especially moving them from USA to Oz).

But I don't think I've expressed "worry." Rather, I've said repeatedly that I believe the Allies are in a strong position no matter what happens in Sumatra.

[poodlebrain]

How much knowledge do you have regarding the locations of his air HQs? He has most likely had to assign several air HQs to the battle for Sabang, and they most likely came from bases near by rather than farther away. This may have created some gaps in his ability to use LBA armed with torpedoes. You might want to probe his defenses in SE of Sumatra looking for more opportunities to raid with surface forces while you know the KB are on the other side of Sumatra. His shortage of CAs and CLs should give you almost free range with raiders. Any response he makes just brings more of your friend, friction, into play in areas he is less capable of taking casualties.

I would form a few TFs centered on CAs and send them hunting. If Japanese shipping withdraws into ports conduct a bombardment and retire the bombarding TF. Meanwhile rush as many other TFs to the seas surrounding the bombarded base to ambush any shipping that tries to flee. Any successes you might have will force your opponent to re-assess his deployment of air HQs. Any redeployments may be compromised by Sigint, and you could get some opportunities to attack those valuable and scarce units in transit.

[Canoerebel]

A lot of the enemy air force is in Sumatra. I just tried to sneak some raiders by Cocos and they were detected and hit by Nells. Other TFs have probed various points on the west side but are detected. The east side is totally out due to the massive concentration of aircraft and ships.

[Canoerebel]

2/27/43

The third night in the cave, one of the dogs came after Clint. He was ready though - there's nothing like the thought of a crazed animal tearing out your throat to keep you vigilant. He brained the dog with a branch and plunged his Bowie knife into its neck.

Battle of Sumatra: Here came the Kongos on another bombardment run - number three, and this one just three days after the last one. Greenling was ready, though, and put a torp into Kirishima (with others duds). The Kongos kept coming, though, and savaged the base. Airfield damage is up to 80+/70+ and port damage is at 37. This knocked out my NavSearch, so I lost sight of the Kongos and the KBs. But SS-37 didn't. She took a shot at Akagi to the WNW of Sabang but the torps either missed or were duds. Note that the bombardment wasn't as severe as previous ones. If Kirishima has to withdraw, that leaves John with three. Will his bombardments now be 75% as effective? How will John react to Friction? He'll keep coming, but a bit more Friction and he might develop a case of the yips.

The PBYs also lost track of that worrisome merchant TF between Sinabang and Nias. I see one AMC NW of Sibolga - it can only be heading for Sabang. There's nothing else out there. On the chance that this is the real thing, I'm reconfigure my troop deployment just a bit. In three days, Sabang will have 650 AV behind four forts with 100% prep and SWPac HQ 100% prepped. So that AV should be more than doubled (and more AV will arrive thereafter). Since bombardments aren't touching the fighting troops (still), I think John would have to land roughly seven or eight divisions in good shape to have a chance here. Hmm, I wonder if he can do that? Or perhaps I'm missing something.

No signs of pending movement versus Langsa, though that base is much closer to enemy troop concentrations.

February wanes. March nears. Friction is my friend.

[witpqs]

The third night in the cave, one of the dogs came after Clint. He was ready though - there's nothing like the thought of a crazed animal tearing out your throat to keep you vigilant. He brained the dog with a branch and plunged his Bowie knife into its neck.

Meat!

[BBfanboy]

Maybe the troop TF that you sighted is headed for the Burma base that you evacuated your fighters to?
When John III is on a mission to destroy something he hates escapees!

[Canoerebel]

I hope so! The most helpful thing John could do right now would be to go on the offensive in SEAC, especially if it involves the KB and his air force. I don't want him giving attention to Java, the Admiralties and New Guinea. Right now, SigInt and base-building informaton indicate these areas are wide open (except for Rabaul, which just took a division that had been at Noumea).

It's going to be hard to hold John's full attention in Sumatra for the three or four months I need to get everything in place. You know how it works: just as you're ready the pull the trigger, the enemy moves in numbers to the target region. I just know that's going to happen, which is why I fantisize about John getting a blood lust and focusing on SEAC. But I don't think he'll do it, or at least not long enough to keep clear the way for the Allies.

[Lecivius]

He also hates when his toys get a dent. I hope that torpedo blew a 40' hole in the side, caused an ammo explosion, broke the keel...!!!! <takes a deep breath, a sip of coffee, wipes the spittle off the side of the mouth, gazes serenely out at the snow covered mountains>...

This was exactly what you were looking for, more friction as you call it. Your forcing him to fight you, not you fight him. Shades of Nemo here. I like it [;)] To bad you didn't put a dent in one of his carriers. But the clock is ticking on working torps.

[Canoerebel]

Ten days ago real life (or February 15, 1943 turn), John sent this email: "I think it can be safely declared that we’ll know which way this fight in Sumatra will go by March 1st."

It's one more day to March 1. The jury's probably still out on John's boast. I think you could make an argument either way and establish your case by a preponderance of the evidence. But it would be impossible to prove the matter either way "beyond a reasonable doubt."

In the 12 days since that email, John has accomplished alot. He's gained control of the air and the seas around Sumatra. He's sunk BB Indiana, at least three CAs (Dorsetshire, Hawkins and Wichita) and several CLs, and many low-value DDs. He's reclaimed nearly all the islands and is vigorously building airfields. Sabang is isolated. The Allied position is precarious.

On the flip side, the Allied army hasn't been touched yet. Sabang and Langsa are held in strength, well fortified, and fully supplied. Sabang and vicinity britle with mines and subs. John has suffered damage to four BBs (and Nagato might have gone under), lost two CLs, and lost perhaps as many as 10 DDs, mostly good ones. He has to continue using BBs to suppress the airfield, and doing this exposes him to further attrition.

I still think the Allies have a 34% chance of pulling this out somehow. So the odds are against me, but we won't know the outcome unless and until John figures a way to root out the Allied infantry.