The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

That's an idea, but only if John actually moves up that coastal road. There's no sign of troops en route yet. If he doesn't use that road, then I need to keep the RCT there as it's prepping for Sabang and will be added to the garrison when and if needed.

There was a time that RCT had an AV of 0. Most of the unit had been stripped away for island garrison duty. Those garrisons have been wiped out, so now the unit is steady rebuilding. It's at 51 AV now and might well be at 75 ore more by the time any enemy units could reach it. If I put that unit in jungle-rough terrain, it becomes tough. If I add another RCT or even a division (if John truly sends three or more divisions this way) it becomes quite an obstacle.

[Canoerebel]

3/16/43

Battle of Sumatra: Today is significant as John's plans begin to come into focus and the Allies get in a couple of punches.

The Kongos return to Sabang, again hammering the airfield, damaging some of the ships in the harbor, and not touching the infantry or supply.

At Langsa, Japanese bombers come in waves and tear up the airfield and a bit of supply. I had just loaded up the field with strike aircraft in hopes of catching John napping a bit. There were two TBF squadrons with torps set naval strike, a group of Bolos and two B25 squadrons set to hit Sinabang's port, and three B24D1 to hit Singers port. All but the Liberators flew. The Bolos sank an already damaged 10-point DD at Sinabang, the TBFs scored one hit on a troop-carrying xAK near Phuket, and the B25s did this:

Morning Air attack on Sinabang , at 42,76

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 14

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAK Juko Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Ginyo Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAKL Yosyu Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAK Macassar Maru, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Matsukawa Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Tatukami Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing from 13000 feet
Port Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

I debated whether this was a good idea and the best time to try this. It should ratchet up John's irritation with all things Sumatra (which is both good and bad) and now he'll work to close the airfield good. But the time seemed right to score some hits.

KB remains posted close to Sabang, just to the NNW.

DD Decoy made a successful escape from Sabang and is halfway to Ceylon.

The most important event of the day is the appearance (finally!) of two Japanese ground units heading towards the west coast yellow road that leads to Sabang. I'm thinking John will commit at least three divisions to this endeavor. So the Allies will shift several hundred AV from Sabang to jungle-rough terrain on that road. The RCT is in place, of course, and serves as the first speed bump. To replace the AV in Sabang, several units will move there from Langsa. This stretches the defenses a bit. The danger is if John sends in a massive invasion. But he's got so many divisions tied down now - four over near Langsa, I think at least three heading for the yellow road, and four to six more in Burma, that the cupboard has to be a bit thin. I wouldn't sweat an three-division invasion of either port. I think it would take five or six to give John a chance - especially at Langsa.

But if John isn't yet prepared to try an amphibious assault - if he's first willing to give a ground campaign a try - then he's just added a lot of time to the entire undertaking.

It's March 16. Hellcats come online in two weeks. In two months, the Allies should have six to eight divisions available in Oz with which to proceed with the next big campaign. I've been asking for time to get my ducks in a row. Although the picture isn't complete yet, John may have seen fit to give a block of time.

[HansBolter]

Amazing bombing accuracy for the altitude they went in at!

At first I didn't notice the altitude and thought by the number of hits you must have gone in at low level.

Must be some cracker jack pilots in that squadron.

[Canoerebel]

Gents, I'm trying to figure out the fastest and most efficient way to get troops from America to Capetown.

I've come across something that makes me scratch my head. Is it really 26 more days for a unit in strat mode to travel from East Coast to Capetown than from Balboa to Capetown? I had two units making those journeys on the same day. I oped the "Ground Reinforcement" list the next day and noticed that the East Coast unit was going to take 43 days to make the journey, while the Balboa unit was going to take just 17 days! (neither of these units is aboard ships.)

If this is true, I'm wondering whether it would be faster to send a big division by ship to San Diego and thence to Balboa, unload, and thence to Capetown. The trip from San Diego to Balboa would probably take less than the 26 additional days units seem to take to make the journey there from East Coast.

Or have I missed something or made a mistake?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Amazing bombing accuracy for the altitude they went in at!

At first I didn't notice the altitude and thought by the number of hits you must have gone in at low level.

Must be some cracker jack pilots in that squadron.

This is one of my most experienced bomber squadrons and there was no CAP.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Gents, I'm trying to figure out the fastest and most efficient way to get troops from America to Capetown.

I've come across something that makes me scratch my head. Is it really 26 more days for a unit in strat mode to travel from East Coast to Capetown than from Balboa to Capetown? I had two units making those journeys on the same day. I oped the "Ground Reinforcement" list the next day and noticed that the East Coast unit was going to take 43 days to make the journey, while the Balboa unit was going to take just 17 days! (neither of these units is aboard ships.)

If this is true, I'm wondering whether it would be faster to send a big division by ship to San Diego and thence to Balboa, unload, and thence to Capetown. The trip from San Diego to Balboa would probably take less than the 26 additional days units seem to take to make the journey there from East Coast.

Or have I missed something or made a mistake?

Can't help a lot as I rarely send units from the Canal to Capetown. I DO know there is a serious quirk in movement through the canal.

NEVER send units from East Coast or any other linked off map base to Balboa as letting the AI move your units through the cnal takes something like three days IIRC.

It takes only one day if you do it manually. Always send them to Cristobal first and then manually move them to Balboa.

From EC to Balboa takes something like three days longer then EC to Cristobal.

[Lecivius]

I have no real experience, either [:(]

[Canoerebel]

I'll double check my numbers, but assuming that it does take 26 days longer to go from East Coast to Capetown than from Cristobal to Capetown....don't you think it would be faster to take the Cristobal route and use ships to transport the troops from San Diego to Balboa? IE, I don't think that particular journey takes 26 days, so I might save a week or more.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll double check my numbers, but assuming that it does take 26 days longer to go from East Coast to Capetown than from Cristobal to Capetown....don't you think it would be faster to take the Cristobal route and use ships to transport the troops from San Diego to Balboa? IE, I don't think that particular journey takes 26 days, so I might save a week or more.

Partly depends where the units are to start. If on East Coast then no because you have to add the rail time from the EC to a WC port to embark.

If starting on WC then yes, because you also have to add the rail time to EC to the transit time from EC to Capetown.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Hans. To summarize: Based upon what I"ve seen of transit times, for a unit beginning in San Diego the fastest way to Capetown is by ship to the Panama Canal and then strat movement to the Cape (as opposed to taking rail to East Coast and then strat movement from East Coast to Canal). This makes no sense to me, but it's one of the vagaries of the game.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Hans. To summarize: Based upon what I"ve seen of transit times, for a unit beginning in San Diego the fastest way to Capetown is by ship to the Panama Canal and then strat movement to the Cape (as opposed to taking rail to East Coast and then strat movement from East Coast to Canal). This makes no sense to me, but it's one of the vagaries of the game.

How big are the Panama ports...might not be able to unload in Transport mode their quickly.

[poodlebrain]

Using Google, the distance from the Panama Canal to Capetown is 11,314KM, which converts to 6,109 nautical miles. The distance from Norfolk, VA to Capetown is 12,546KM which converts to 6,775 nautical miles. Thus a nominal East Coast port is 666 nautical miles farther than the Panama Canal from Capetown. At 12 Knots that would be about 55 hours of sailing time, or 3 days in game terms since you would round up.

The discrepancy in transit times does seem excessive. You will have to get the rationale from one of the game designers.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How big are the Panama ports...might not be able to unload in Transport mode their quickly.

Good idea. I'll check that.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Using Google, the distance from the Panama Canal to Capetown is 11,314KM, which converts to 6,109 nautical miles. The distance from Norfolk, VA to Capetown is 12,546KM which converts to 6,775 nautical miles. Thus a nominal East Coast port is 666 nautical miles farther than the Panama Canal from Capetown. At 12 Knots that would be about 55 hours of sailing time, or 3 days in game terms since you would round up.

The discrepancy in transit times does seem excessive. You will have to get the rationale from one of the game designers.

I figured Norfolk (and even New York) would be about the same as the Panama Canal. But unless I made a mistake, nearly a month's difference in the game!

[Canoerebel]

3/17/43

Battle of Sumatra: No enemy activity at Sabang today. The Six Sisters (CAs) bombard Langsa. This is followed by scores of enemy bombers targeting the airfield. The field is shut down, but the troops and supply are largely undisturbed. Up at Sabang, supply is 226k. No sign of imminent amphibious assault at either base. And no sign that John is planning a ground attack up the east side of Sumatra.

So the west side looks like the focal point right now. Two IJA units (at leat one a division, I think) have reached the broken yellow road hex that is eight hexes south of Sabang. I think it will take John's units at leat 40 days to make this march, even if Allied troops don't manage to hold a hex against any attack. Here's the analysis:

1. The two enemy units in the broken yellow-road hex may make 4 miles per day (if my memory is correct about how long it takes infantry to march in jungle without a road. That would be 12 days of marching. That number might be considerably less if I've miscalculated the rate of march or if part of the time the units do get credit for yellow road segments in the hex (which infantry cover at the rate of 12 miles per day).
2. Three yellow road hexes. Each of these will take a minimum of five days, one to deploy to combat mode and take the hex, four to march. That's 15 days.
3. One hex that's half yellow and half gray: one day to deploy and take the hex, and perhaps three days to march. That's 4 days.
4. Three gray road hexes - one day to deploy in each and two days to march, meaning three days each or 9 days total.

So roughly 40 days, with the possibiilty it could be shorter if transit time for the first hex is less or if the Allies don't offer opposition in any hex. If the Allies successfully stand in any hex (that should be possible given rough terrain in some of the hexes, and especially if the Japanese army is no more than two or three divisions), the time will be longer.

Here's the thing. I don't want John to become discouraged too soon. If he does, his only remaining options are amphibious action at Sabang or at Langsa. I don't want him to invade (he might just prevail and the time involved will be far less if he does). So I'm not going to post stout resistance too far foward. I'm going to let him push back that RCT (currently at 60 AV in rough terrain). That should slow him but not stop him, and it will excite him that this is the only opposition he faces for two or three hexes. But if everything goes well, tanks and 1st Marines will meet him in good terrain perhaps thre or four hexes from Sabang. By then so much time will have passed that I'll have accomplished what I've wanted to.

The biggest unknown is whether John is currently planning an amphibious assault. He might well be, but he's going about it an odd way. He'd be better off using the divisions now committed to jungle warfare, because I should be able to stymie the advance using considerably fewer numbers. He'd have more efficient uses for his divisions by invading directly. I think.

Unless John successfully invades Langsa and/or Sabang, a land campaign looks like at least a 50-day proposition for him. During that interval, he has to keep Sabang suppressed (meaning the Kongos). And to keep the Kongos coming, he has to deploy the KB for protection.

I can handle timelines involving 40 or 50 or 60 days or more. We're talking about late April into mid May.

SWPac: Peanut 3 is 32% and achieved Check 2. Peanut 1 and 2 are at 100%. They'll achieve Check 1 in about a week. SigInt continues to whisper encouraging words.

SoPac: The Marines have invaded ungarrisoned Funafuti in the Ellice Islands.

Elsewhere: The Allies are mainting reconnaissance pressure all over the map - from Darwin to New Guinea to the Aleutians, just to keep John wondering.

[jwolf]

It's very interesting to read your PsyOps strategy -- that is, put up just the right amount of resistance, neither too much nor too little.

BTW what are Peanut 1, 2, and 3? Maybe this was explained earlier but I am a late arrival.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

It's very interesting to read your PsyOps strategy -- that is, put up just the right amount of resistance, neither too much nor too little.

BTW what are Peanut 1, 2, and 3? Maybe this was explained earlier but I am a late arrival.

It's a sekret... ;]

[Lowpe]

He has hinted at them.[;)]

[Lecivius]

"Unless John successfully invades Langsa and/or Sabang, a land campaign looks like at least a 50-day proposition for him. During that interval, he has to keep Sabang suppressed (meaning the Kongos). And to keep the Kongos coming, he has to deploy the KB for protection. "

This is not necessarily true. He has two airfields now, on either side of Sabang.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

"Unless John successfully invades Langsa and/or Sabang, a land campaign looks like at least a 50-day proposition for him. During that interval, he has to keep Sabang suppressed (meaning the Kongos). And to keep the Kongos coming, he has to deploy the KB for protection. "

This is not necessarily true. He has two airfields now, on either side of Sabang.

Not to mention that this mod allows him more than one KB.