The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

John, I've only been to the northeast once. That was for a big family camping trip in 2003 to Massachusetts, Maine and Vermont, and included a day in Manhatten. We had a blast and found the people - from big city to small town - friendly. We returned with the feeling that we would have been very content to live in Bath, New Hampshire, or Taunton, Massachusetts, or wherever, had life taken us there.

[Canoerebel]

Sitting in the driver's seat as Captain America, focusing on the game from my perspective, I sometimes forget what the game looks like from John's perspective and from the perspective of the esteemed Peanut Gallery. When I paused yesterday to consider things that way it made me smile.

Since we resumed the game beginning January 3, 1943, the Allies have been absorbing one punch after another (with occasional jabs back, but mainly just getting pummeled). When I think of it that way, I understand better why John would be feeling good and how reading my AAR must be tough if you're pulling for the Allies. Every day it's the same thing: "Japan pummels Sumatra; no sign of immennt enemy invasion; I'm trying to hold on until something good happens some day. It will. Oh, I just feel certain it has to."

I am unfazed by what's going on since I knew this was in the cards when we resumed the game. I knew the Allies would have to dig in, fight a retreating and dealying campaign, and try to hold on into spring or summer before I'd be in a position to resume the offensive. So none of this is particularly alarming from my perspective.

But from John's perspective, and for the readers of the AARs, it's been an uninterrupted period of Japanese attacks.

Things would have been quite different if the Allied fighter pools been somewhat competitive. In that case, the Allies would have been able to protect the fields better, bring in more strike aircraft to hit enemy fields and ships, and save the F4Fs for the carriers, permitting me to use my carriers offensively. But the meager pools - so incredibly disparate - forced me to bring the F4Fs to Sabang and to fight mainly defensively.

The disparity has been addressed by later tweaks to the Mod, but those tweaks don't apply retroactively and thus haven't helped me in this game. John thought they did. I think he still is under the impression that the Aliled fighter production was beefed up considerably.

John ought to be chagrined by his performance in this game rather than strutting about shouting "Banzai!" He left gaping holes in his defenses and patrols, allowing he Allies to land eight divisions or so undetected in his heartland in the autumn of 1942. The Allies have held that lodgement pretty strongly for 4.5 months now and will hold it at least another month or two. Japan has brought everything to bear and still hasn't been able to eradicate this in a timely fashion. This is John's mod with enhanced ships (especially for Japan) and a dramatic disparity in fighter pools, yet almost the entire game he's been reacting to Allied moves, fighting to recover places he had lost. He's expanded far less than most Japanese players do, especially experienced players, especially players using their own mod design, and especially in today's AE world where usually Japan invades India or Oz or Hawaii in strength. John's been able to accomplish none of those things.

I understand the "Banzai!" perspective when focusing solely on the Sumatra campaign of January through March 1943. But overall, the Allies have done well to this date. I feel pretty good about where things stand and where I'll go from here.

[poodlebrain]

Assuming worst case, that you lose your foothold on Sumatra in 30 days, you will still determine the next battlefield in the game, and the geography should be much more to your liking from the perspective of proximate supporting bases. You will be able to force more encounters, another way of saying increase friction, on terms more favorable to you. This should result in more rapid casualties for the Japanese that they cannot replace while you are receiving massive reinforcements. You are in excellent position to win the game, and you should feel very good about where things stand.

[Lecivius]

I've always thought you've done well. Far better than I would have. And my gut burns for those guys in Sumatra [;)] I even got a feeling of Cartwheel in the Far East last night as I pondered it while helping a cub scout troop build derby cars.

And if you ever come west, I'll take you back so far in the mountains you will see places God forgot [;)]

[JohnDillworth]

John, I've only been to the northeast once. That was for a big family camping trip in 2003 to Massachusetts, Maine and Vermont, and included a day in Manhatten. We had a blast and found the people - from big city to small town - friendly. We returned with the feeling that we would have been very content to live in Bath, New Hampshire, or Taunton, Massachusetts, or wherever, had life taken us there.

Well this was the first of many scouting trips to warmer climates. Mrs. D is still not 100% on board but in the coming years I do wish to leave the Northeast winters behind. Charleston is wonderful, obviously, Savannah looks like it has had some hard times but is emerging (gentrifying) quickly into something special. Once I got out of the City center I found it utterly charming.
I also had the opportunity to visit Magnolia and Bonaventure Cemeteries. If you haven't been, you should. The Confederate section of Magnolia cemetery is deeply moving. The city of Charleston made some great efforts to bring their sons home. to see stones with just names and dates, knowing full well what those dates probably meant (many stones from the first week of July 1863) truly touched me

[Canoerebel]

3/27/43

Battle of Sumatra: Japan pummels Sumatra; no sign of immennt enemy invasion; I'm trying to hold on until something good happens some day. It will. Oh, I just feel certain it has to

[Canoerebel]

3/27/43 (Actual Report)

Battle of Sumatra: Actually, the faux report is pretty accurate. Kongos bombard Sabang, tearing up the airfield and not touching supply or ground troops. (I assume John thinks, with good reason, that these bombardments are ripping suppy and combat power to shreds, which is why I had expected him to invade.) Invasion of the last Allied island holding, east of Sabang. That base is out of supply so will fold immediately. ("Banzai!")

SigInt shows 12th Division inbound to Medan. It might march across the island to reinforce the west road campaign, but I'm wondering if John will take a stab at the Allied stack a hex south of Langsa. That's jungle (2x) terrain with 1000 AV, most of it behind three forts. I think it might take six divisions to break through in timely fashion?

I think KB may have vacated the area. Patrols don't show it, which is nothing new since my PBYs are about gone, but there is no "host" of carrier aircraft suppressing Allied subs. I'll continue to monitor and then begin to probe with some ships.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

...Well this was the first of many scouting trips to warmer climates. Mrs. D is still not 100% on board but in the coming years I do wish to leave the Northeast winters behind. Charleston is wonderful, obviously, Savannah looks like it has had some hard times but is emerging (gentrifying) quickly into something special. Once I got out of the City center I found it utterly charming. ...

The coastal Deep South is lovely in the winter except on the occasions when it's windy and cold and wet. Savannah, for instance, is probably great five or six days out of seven in January.

But the coast Deep South in summer is another proposition entirely. Ouch!

It gets cold down here, by our standards, but the daylight hours are considerably longer so that even in the dead of winter we get 9.5 hour of sunlight a day. That's enough to allow me to go on very long hikes if I feel like it. And usually I do. Winter is gorgeous in the mountains. Not because of snow. We seldom get it. But the woods are still and majestic with great views that aren't present in summer. Plus, wintertime cold = free air conditioning. I don't perspire like I do in the summer.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/27/43 (Actual Report)

I think KB may have vacated the area. Patrols don't show it, which is nothing new since my PBYs are about gone, but there is no "host" of carrier aircraft suppressing Allied subs. I'll continue to monitor and then begin to probe with some ships.

Some Carriers begin their upgrades 4/43.

[Canoerebel]

Is there a preferred place for IJN carries to upgrade? Singers is probably out of the question due to proximity to Sabang. Hong Kong might be for the same reason (proximity to 4EB from Chungking). So where does John go? Manila? Home Islands?

[Encircled]

He might risk Hong Kong, hell, he might risk Singapore.

But either one he'll have put an almightly CAP up............or at least he should do

Otherwise HI

[Encircled]

Based on what you've seen already, I might just be worth a raid on Singapore.

He might not make the same mistake again but if he has.....

[Canoerebel]

Don't you think John would be leery of a "worst case scenario" situation. IE, he upgrades at Singers, the Allies somehow manage to reclaim control at Sabang, and 4EB suddenly hit Singers even with massive CAP in place.

Ditto, perhaps to a lesser extent, with Hong Kong.

Wouldn't he prefer a place where he doesn't have to fret about worst case scenarios? If so, what place or places make the most sense? I'd think Manila, but I'm an Allied player who doesn't know squat about what a Japanese player would do in this case.

[Lecivius]

Singers is definitely an option for him. Sabang is suppressed. He knows it.

[witpqs]

I don't know what he will do but with Sabang shut down a player just might opt for Singapore to cut out the transit time.

[Canoerebel]

Speaking of which, is there any way for the Allies to regain control at Sabang? I've given this alot of thought. This is the best chance:

1. John withdraws KB on the assumption that bombardments and surrounding airfields are sufficient to keep Sabang permanently suppressed.
2. There is a slight disruption in enemy bombardments for one reason or another (Kongos need to refuel, take a loss due to a sub, whatever).
3. Allies slip carriers to a point NW of Sabang, providing umbrella support for a mix of Allied TFs including CAs, Fletchers, and perhaps a fast BB or two. Positioning is such that Netties are too distant to represent a big threat.
4. On day two, the Allies send the combat TFs sprinting to Sabang at full speed and also transfer in massive fighter support from Ceylon and Ramree Island. If this works, the Allies then have combat ships in place under cover of fighters.
5. On day two the carriers retire, thus facing only one day within Nettie range (I think that's manageable, becuase even 100 Netties would have trouble dealing with massive CAP.)

It will help to have Hellcats available before trying this. And it will require confidence that KB is far away.

All these stars may not align, but there's a chance they will. John's already left one sizeable window in his bombardment schedule that allowed the airfield to recover fully (that window has since closed again).

[Lowpe]

I think a lot of the upgrades are for radar, need a size 25 repair yard and 3 weeks or so.

I don't know about John, but radar is very important for the KB to have.

Manila is probably too small but a fair number of JFBs expand the yards there. Hong Kong, Singers, Shanghai, HI.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Speaking of which, is there any way for the Allies to regain control at Sabang? I've given this alot of thought. This is the best chance:

1. John withdraws KB on the assumption that bombardments and surrounding airfields are sufficient to keep Sabang permanently suppressed.
2. There is a slight disruption in enemy bombardments for one reason or another (Kongos need to refuel, take a loss due to a sub, whatever).
3. Allies slip carriers to a point NW of Sabang, providing umbrella support for a mix of Allied TFs including CAs, Fletchers, and perhaps a fast BB or two. Positioning is such that Netties are too distant to represent a big threat.
4. On day two, the Allies send the combat TFs sprinting to Sabang at full speed and also transfer in massive fighter support from Ceylon and Ramree Island. If this works, the Allies then have combat ships in place under cover of fighters.
5. On day two the carriers retire, thus facing only one day within Nettie range (I think that's manageable, becuase even 100 Netties would have trouble dealing with massive CAP.)

It will help to have Hellcats available before trying this. And it will require confidence that KB is far away.

All these stars may not align, but there's a chance they will. John's already left one sizeable window in his bombardment schedule that allowed the airfield to recover fully (that window has since closed again).

That plan depends heavily on how fast the airfield is repaired, which is partly a function of the disruption level of the engineer units.

[Lowpe]

Why not try to time a fast speed destroyer squadron in to hit the bombarding task forces.

When the moon is dark...in and out. Give them some lrcap from something.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius
Singers is definitely an option for him. Sabang is suppressed. He knows it.

I hope John thinks so. But Sabang's resiliency is remarkable given the number of engineers and the amount of supply available. His bombardments shut down the field for two or three days. But if he gets complacent, the Allies can get the field operational much faster than John thinks. (I think.)