DoW on Netherlands

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Hello all.

I would like to ask what are benefits if Germany does not attack Netherlands. It makes attacking Belgium little bit more difficult, but do Japan get something good from it?

Can Japan DoW only on Netherlands and take those oil fields when they think US is cutting off oil? Or should they do it earlier? Or something else?

[AlbertN]

In my last game, where I've not written an AAR for - and ended in Jul / Aug '41 prematurely (With the fall of Moscow); France deployed behind the Seine and in Paris; that allowed Germans to step over the Maginot calmly.
It saved the DoW on Netherlands, and Germany and Japan DoW'ed in combination Netherlands in Sept / Oct 1940. (Yes I got Embargo'ed in Jul / Aug '40, and USA geared up 2nd time in Sept / Oct '40).

The problem of not having Netherland to attack Belgium is that your attack could go pretty wrong AND if that happens, and the W.Allies manage to man properly the riverline there Germany is in BIG trouble. (In that case without Netherland Axis I'd defend with Belgium Liegi, and the forest hex west of Saarbrucken. Germany can get into the resource in Maas, but cannot get to either Antwerp or Bruxxels; and being Belgium and not France, I can bring in as many Brits as I want. And I can set the Belgian 5-3 INF backward to save it, since both Forest and City are not overrunnable. - That assuming one plays normally with the ZOC on surprise impulses [not coded yet the optional for No ZoC on surprise turns])

The moment Japan DoW's Netherland though, Euro-Axis must be ready to take their European part of it - or it turns into a free base for UK forces (even more if Germany is elsewhere busy).
The benefit Japan has is technically "minimal"; the MIL unit of Batavia is not in game the turn of the DoW so there is just a TERR in Batavia itself; which is much easier by itself to be directly assaulted via sea invasion.
That is the only "benefit" I can truly see for Japan.

From the UK standpoint, it's 10 CPs less at the beginning of the game.
For Germany it's a resource less (which translates in less production or less oil stocked over time).

But Germany at some point MUST attack Netherlands, or it turns into an easy landing zone closeby Germany for the W.Allies if left neutral / aligned to W.Allies after Japan unavoidably DoW's them.

[Jagdtiger14]

Benefit for Axis: 1. Potential positive US entry chit issue early on, 2. the other half of the Dutch fleet is not safe and can be sunk and/or captured, 3. Taking of NEI is mildly easier as Cohen states above, 4. Also as Cohen states above CW has less cp's to work with from early on.

Negative for Axis: Germany will need to use one of its O-chits to crack the Dyle, and minus one resource until its time for Japan to go after NEI (mid-1941?...minus a total of 11 or 12 resources).

Although I tried it once, I don't think its worth considering.

[Centuur]

I believe that in the first turn of the game, an attack on Belgium (without a DoW on the Netherlands) can be devastating to the French. In that turn, the French are short of everything. They don't have enough units to race to Brussels (and if they have, Germany can crack the Maginot Line instead). Sure, the CW will land in Antwerp, but next impulse, Germany takes Brussels and that's the end of Belgium. However, there is a downside to this, since if Germany gets bad weather in the third impulse, it has to use the offensive chit to take Brussels...

If the weather stays reasonably good (a rain impulse isn't that bad in S/O on the Western Front), Germany might even get into Northern France itself. I've once been on the receiving end of a German Blitzkrieg, where at the end of S/O 1939 they got two hexes on Paris due to continuing good weather and the turn not ending. The Dutch stayed neutral than too.

In 1939 US entry chits are higher of value as compared to 1940, which is also something to consider when DoW'ing neutrals...

[brian brian]

You can definitely defeat France without taking the Netherlands. If the Axis grand strategy is a pure history 1941 Barbarossa, it is a good way to go. The upsides include 10 less Convoy Points for the CW = 10 less they have to string a lifeline to Murmansk when the real war starts, and 10 less when the Italians launch their surprise impulse SUB strike on the Cape St Vincent sea area.

The other upside is less US Entry hit. Sure it is only a "3" = 30% chance of a chit. But the bigger upside is not attacking Belgium in 1939. (For best play, imo, the Axis will need to prepare for a No-Netherlands strategy with additional specialty units for a historical Spring, 1940 attack). In 1939, the USA can draw the "5" chit, or a "4" easily. In MWiF, there is no upper limit on how many "5" chits the USA might draw, so 2 of them being in the Allied pocket before the end of the first year of the war is a distinct possibility. In 1940, the Entry chits are at their lowest average values, and that is important, though most Axis players don't realize that until the Jolly Green Giant is throwing an Offensive Chit at them every impulse in 1945.

A 1941 Barbarossa including the installation of Vichy France in Sep/Oct 1940 is one of the most potent choices the Axis can make.

In an anti-CW strategy, time is much more of the essence.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Thank you all for your answers!

[Barbuesque]

I would say it's making the attack on Belgium a lot more difficult, not just a little. Like Jagtiger said, the cost is at least an O-chit to crack the Dyle, with a chance of failure as well.

Now if your opponent is not setup to move into the Dyle on the 2nd S/O axis impulse... then yes I might skip the Netherlands.

[Courtenay]

I would like to point out is that the WiF map is not accurate. In particular, while the hex NW of Liege correctly belongs to Belgium, and the hex NE of Liege correctly belongs to Germany, if one takes a look at a map of the Low Countries one will see that the hexside between those two hexes should belong to the Netherlands. Since WiF does not have a mechanism to assign a hexside to a country, this fact is not reflected in the game.

However, I usually use a house rule to implement the fact that the Netherlands has a thin neck of territory that almost reaches Liege. If that hexside is impassible so long as the Netherlands is neutral, then attacking Belgium with a neutral Netherlands becomes much more difficult.

[Jagdtiger14]

Centuur: I'm thinking that CW has 4 lift? If so, then 3 corps plus HQ. The best Belgian unit survives and adds to the CW two hex line (Antwerp + Brussels) with the HQ to the west of Brussels and a div in Brussels. I believe the French have enough to hold the other three hexes (2 in Belgium 1 French - west of Metz) and still hold the 4 Maginot hexes.

I would like to see a test AAR on this.

[AlbertN]

Main problem of the West First in the first turn is the surprise impulse.
The French Bomber can bring quite some mayhem in German preparations in general - as usually it's a 3 strong bomber. Plus any Brit bomber that is in reach that can ground strike the German forces.
It's a big gamble (heck in a game I got Von Rundstedt hammered down despite forest and AA cover).

[Jagdtiger14]

Cohen: We all have our tolerances for risk taking. Personally I have little concern for Allied ground strikes. My greatest fear in a Fall Gelb are the weather rolls...and then turn end rolls. If you have not already, take a look at the current AAR between Mayhemizer and AllenK to see what a Fall Gelb can do.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I think I will attack Netherlands in the future with Germany as I have done before.

And Fall Gelb was so successful I will do that again.

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Cohen: We all have our tolerances for risk taking. Personally I have little concern for Allied ground strikes. My greatest fear in a Fall Gelb are the weather rolls...and then turn end rolls. If you have not already, take a look at the current AAR between Mayhemizer and AllenK to see what a Fall Gelb can do.

You just had to bring that up [8|][;)].

[Jagdtiger14]

Sorry Allen...what happened in that AAR could have happened to anyone. You didn't do anything wrong.

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Sorry Allen...what happened in that AAR could have happened to anyone. You didn't do anything wrong.

No, I freely admit I did make some mistakes.

On the other hand, our previous game showed what can happen if the weather and turn length go against the Germans.

You pays your money and takes your chance [8D].