The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks,helps so much.

Try cropping?

CR's scissors have difficulty cutting his monitor screen ....[:'(]

[Canoerebel]

Hey, it worked! Per Lowpe's suggestion, I tried cropping it. And it turned out quite nicely. Now I think I can resume posting maps and photos and the like.

[Canoerebel]

4/2/43

Battle of Sumatra: Enemy hasn't advanced on the west side yet. It's been 17 days since the first unit showed on the screen, so time is ticking.

On the east side, another IJA unit has reached the contested hex - the first reinforcement there since the campaign started in early January. A US arty unit will bombard tomorrow to see what's up, but it looks like this will be the other vector of attack. The hope - not yet mounting to an expectation or a certainty - is that John commits enough to these two ground assaults that he doesn't have sufficient left for an amphibious operation.

Kongos bombard Sabang; two BBs bombard Langsa. Bombers also hit the Allied units moving down the west road - a first.

Decisions are made regarding medium term plans for the Allied carriers. I won't go into details, but the choices were whether to support Sabang or Operation Circus or both.

Evaluating the Sumatra Campaign: When we resumed the game with the 1/3/43 turn, I had grave doubts as to whether the Allies could hold long given the glaring problems with the fighter pools. It's too early to declare winners and losers yet, but for the Allies to hold this long in some strength, with probably 30 to 60 days of campaigning left, has been very helpful. When all is said and done, John will have concentrated almost exclusively on Sumatra for at least five months, probably six, and maybe into a seventh. Both sides will have lost a lot of aircraft and ships. The Allies will - if things go south - have lost many more ground troops. But ground troops aren't usually in short supply. And the argument can be made that a six-month hiatus in Japanese initiative was worth the cost.

In the meantime, my biggest hope is that John will commit in force somewhere that won't hurt the Allies strategically. A perfect example was the 1944 invasion of India in our previous game. A massive use of precious resources that just didn't affect the Allies one way or the other. At this point, there is only one place that major Japanese offensive activity would pose a problem for the Allies, and lots of places it just wouldn't matter long term. Right now there are no signs of looming Japanese offensive activity. But what about when (and if) Sumatra winds down and John finds himself with 10 or 15 divisions. Does he cast a glance at Ceylon or NE India or Oz? I wonder.

[Canoerebel]

Oops, double post.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oops, double post.

I'll fill it out for you! [:D]

OK, that nice screen pic (your computer work is improving!) invalidated my mental picture of the situation. I had thought that 1st USMC Div's position was much farther back, maybe adjacent to Sabang.

Now you are in danger of having your forces lured forward - baited - by actions on both sides of the island. Then a coup de main amphibious landing at Sabang will have much less to face.

When pulling various forces out of Sabang and sending them more than a short journey away, you are betting Sabang's fate on your estimate of what strength John can bring to bear in an amphibious invasion directly at Sabang. You might be right, you might be wrong.

I sure don't know the answer. [:)]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/2/43

Battle of Sumatra: Enemy hasn't advanced on the west side yet. It's been 17 days since the first unit showed on the screen, so time is ticking.

On the east side, another IJA unit has reached the contested hex - the first reinforcement there since the campaign started in early January. A US arty unit will bombard tomorrow to see what's up, but it looks like this will be the other vector of attack. The hope - not yet mounting to an expectation or a certainty - is that John commits enough to these two ground assaults that he doesn't have sufficient left for an amphibious operation.

Kongos bombard Sabang; two BBs bombard Langsa. Bombers also hit the Allied units moving down the west road - a first.

Decisions are made regarding medium term plans for the Allied carriers. I won't go into details, but the choices were whether to support Sabang or Operation Circus or both.

Evaluating the Sumatra Campaign: When we resumed the game with the 1/3/43 turn, I had grave doubts as to whether the Allies could hold long given the glaring problems with the fighter pools. It's too early to declare winners and losers yet, but for the Allies to hold this long in some strength, with probably 30 to 60 days of campaigning left, has been very helpful. When all is said and done, John will have concentrated almost exclusively on Sumatra for at least five months, probably six, and maybe into a seventh. Both sides will have lost a lot of aircraft and ships. The Allies will - if things go south - have lost many more ground troops. But ground troops aren't usually in short supply. And the argument can be made that a six-month hiatus in Japanese initiative was worth the cost.

In the meantime, my biggest hope is that John will commit in force somewhere that won't hurt the Allies strategically. A perfect example was the 1944 invasion of India in our previous game. A massive use of precious resources that just didn't affect the Allies one way or the other. At this point, there is only one place that major Japanese offensive activity would pose a problem for the Allies, and lots of places it just wouldn't matter long term. Right now there are no signs of looming Japanese offensive activity. But what about when (and if) Sumatra winds down and John finds himself with 10 or 15 divisions. Does he cast a glance at Ceylon or NE India or Oz? I wonder.

Personally, I think John has pretty much lost the game-even if he throws you out. You are reaching a point where you can go ahead and fight a big carrier battle due to the fact that you will replace any losses by the end of the year. And you know John will have to use his fleet to throw you out or prevent you from fleeing.

It all comes down to flexibility. You have fixed him in place and he really has no choice to but to throw you out of Sumatra. Any other option will prematurely doom his oil. You on the other hand have options. You can fight him in Sumatra where a victory will seal his fate. Or, just move your carriers to the Pacific and grab another significant strong point while he works on Sumatra.

Another factor is if you can complete your 43 upgrades and get some medium tanks into action then his power on the ground will significantly diminish. Allied squads get monster boosts to their inherent AT value in 43. Once that happened Japanese tanks become all but useless. It becomes very tough for Japanese ground forces to conduct offensive operations after that.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
Personally, I think John has pretty much lost the game-even if he throws you out. You are reaching a point where you can go ahead and fight a big carrier battle due to the fact that you will replace any losses by the end of the year. And you know John will have to use his fleet to throw you out or prevent you from fleeing.

It all comes down to flexibility. You have fixed him in place and he really has no choice to but to throw you out of Sumatra. Any other option will prematurely doom his oil. You on the other hand have options. You can fight him in Sumatra where a victory will seal his fate. Or, just move your carriers to the Pacific and grab another significant strong point while he works on Sumatra.

Another factor is if you can complete your 43 upgrades and get some medium tanks into action then his power on the ground will significantly diminish. Allied squads get monster boosts to their inherent AT value in 43. Once that happened Japanese tanks become all but useless. It becomes very tough for Japanese ground forces to conduct offensive operations after that.

Hope springs eternal for Japan! As long as the KB is around, that is.[:D]

[Canoerebel]

crsutton, several weeks back I was combing the entire AAR to find a particular house rule John and I were discussing several years ago. While doing so, I found a particularly insightful comment you had made, so I quoted it. Your post above offers good insight too. I just checked 1st Marine Division and found it has a full compliment of anti-tank weapons. In fact, it has a full compliment of everything except support and combat squads. But it's growing in strength and should be behind two forts in jungle-rough terrain by the time the enemy arrives. With its anti-tank weapons, and augmented by the tank battalion, it'll be interesting to see how it holds up.

witpqs is right on too. The balancing act is challenging - I want to slow John's advance, but I have to guard against the amphibious coup-de-main.

Regular readers will recall, just a page or two back, my discussion of allowing John to advance up the west coast road enough to give him confidence and to keep him coming so that he wouldn't grow desperate enough to try an amphibious operation. I would like to hold him in the next hex, at least for some time. By then he'll have advanced three hexes without stiff opposition and it will have taken him three weeks or more.

All the while, I have my eye on Sabang and how to get troops there post-haste in the event John does pull the coup-de-main.

[Canoerebel]

4/3/43

Battle of Sumatra: No enemy bombardments today; enemy bombers concentrate on Langsa to little effect; some enemy units advanced from Japan to the jungle hex, but it's HQ types. Until John seriously commits to this hex, I'm holding units in Langsa as the strategic reserve for Sabang. The Allies have three divisions in the jungle hex between Langsa and Sabang. I think John will need at least six divisions to have a chance. Right now there are three.

No sign of KB. It does look like the Kongos are operating out of Sinabang and will hit Sabang tonight.

SWPac: Peanut 4 will arrive at Chittagong in two days; from there it's by rail to Bombay; thence to Capetown; thence to Oz. Operation Circus isn't going to wait for Peanut 4, but if it manages to arrive before the invasion fleets leave, all the better.

SoPac: An IJ naval guard unit is inbound to Ocean Island. This is complimentary to previous reports of a mixed brigade going to Tabituea. The Allies don't have aims over on that flank, but it makes sense for John to reinforce there given recent Allied activity in the Ellice Islands. I plan to feint in this region later, just before Operation Circus gets underway from SWPac.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/2/43

Battle of Sumatra: Enemy hasn't advanced on the west side yet. It's been 17 days since the first unit showed on the screen, so time is ticking.

On the east side, another IJA unit has reached the contested hex - the first reinforcement there since the campaign started in early January. A US arty unit will bombard tomorrow to see what's up, but it looks like this will be the other vector of attack. The hope - not yet mounting to an expectation or a certainty - is that John commits enough to these two ground assaults that he doesn't have sufficient left for an amphibious operation.

Kongos bombard Sabang; two BBs bombard Langsa. Bombers also hit the Allied units moving down the west road - a first.

Decisions are made regarding medium term plans for the Allied carriers. I won't go into details, but the choices were whether to support Sabang or Operation Circus or both.

Evaluating the Sumatra Campaign: When we resumed the game with the 1/3/43 turn, I had grave doubts as to whether the Allies could hold long given the glaring problems with the fighter pools. It's too early to declare winners and losers yet, but for the Allies to hold this long in some strength, with probably 30 to 60 days of campaigning left, has been very helpful. When all is said and done, John will have concentrated almost exclusively on Sumatra for at least five months, probably six, and maybe into a seventh. Both sides will have lost a lot of aircraft and ships. The Allies will - if things go south - have lost many more ground troops. But ground troops aren't usually in short supply. And the argument can be made that a six-month hiatus in Japanese initiative was worth the cost.

In the meantime, my biggest hope is that John will commit in force somewhere that won't hurt the Allies strategically. A perfect example was the 1944 invasion of India in our previous game. A massive use of precious resources that just didn't affect the Allies one way or the other. At this point, there is only one place that major Japanese offensive activity would pose a problem for the Allies, and lots of places it just wouldn't matter long term. Right now there are no signs of looming Japanese offensive activity. But what about when (and if) Sumatra winds down and John finds himself with 10 or 15 divisions. Does he cast a glance at Ceylon or NE India or Oz? I wonder.

Personally, I think John has pretty much lost the game-even if he throws you out. You are reaching a point where you can go ahead and fight a big carrier battle due to the fact that you will replace any losses by the end of the year. And you know John will have to use his fleet to throw you out or prevent you from fleeing.

It all comes down to flexibility. You have fixed him in place and he really has no choice to but to throw you out of Sumatra. Any other option will prematurely doom his oil. You on the other hand have options. You can fight him in Sumatra where a victory will seal his fate. Or, just move your carriers to the Pacific and grab another significant strong point while he works on Sumatra.

Another factor is if you can complete your 43 upgrades and get some medium tanks into action then his power on the ground will significantly diminish. Allied squads get monster boosts to their inherent AT value in 43. Once that happened Japanese tanks become all but useless. It becomes very tough for Japanese ground forces to conduct offensive operations after that.

Having lost a significant portion of the KB quite a bit earlier than mid-43 (Dec 8 to be exact), I question your premise that a CV battle at this point will spell doom for the Japanese. [:)]

1. You assume John will take significant losses. Assuming he will be up to date on his airframes (with Judys, Jills and A6M5b/c) the Japanese aren't so easy to push over in mid-43. Plus naval tactics happen to be the man's strong point, as we all know too well.

2. The Japanese aren't potentially fixed in Sumatra for long. If he does knock out Allied troops (and destroy several major divisions that will be largely irreplaceable before 45 due to replacement rates) he can simply move divisions to reserve areas in already prepared defensive spots. I'm sure he hasn't been neglecting to build strong points and consider some rear defenses.

3. The Pacific requires lots of APA/AKA and ideally the LST/LCI that are just starting to come in numbers. I believe the APA/AKA are just now getting the majority converted. So the Pacific will be an option, but not if the Allies draw or lose a CV battle. LBA is strong in this mod, and the Japanese have extra fleet recources as well. On top of that he's got a bunch of those massive SNLF defense units with decent DP guns, much more than stock. It's not going to be easy.

4. Japanese tanks stil work into 44-45. If they're in good terrain they still aren't bad. From the two games that have gone deep fro me and a few late game tests H to H I can say that in spite of the stats, Japanese tank divisions are well designed for defensive purposes and can hold with forts in good terrain.

5. If John has lost this game, you might as well say every Japanese player has lost the game by mid-43. [;)]

It's still very up in the air, and to assume otherwise would not be good for the Allied prognosis. CR is preparing to move as he's just shown, but also has appropriate measures in place to lead John into a "tarbaby" if he follows his usual style. That is good play, preparing for your opponent's psychology, but you can't depend he'll blunder into something stupid and base strategy around that.

[Canoerebel]

Those are good points, Obvert. Here are some thoughts:

1. There's no question that the Sumatra invasion stopped John dead in his tracks. There's been no IJ expansion since this came about. That's not all bad for John, as he's had plenty of targets close by, right there for the attacking. But it does mean that the Japanese perimeter isn't as far out as usually is in a John III game.

2. The real question now is whether the Allies are in a position to build on Sumatra while it's still serving as a distraction. It's going to be a close thing, I think.

3. I've given some consideration to the next major invasion being a reinforcement of Sumatra, but that's now far down on my list of options, simply because of the size of the enemy airfields, presence of enemy air HQs, and the massive number of enemy aircraft there. Far more likely that Circus will proceed as outlines previously.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Those are good points, Obvert. Here are some thoughts:

1. There's no question that the Sumatra invasion stopped John dead in his tracks. There's been no IJ expansion since this came about. That's not all bad for John, as he's had plenty of targets close by, right there for the attacking. But it does mean that the Japanese perimeter isn't as far out as usually is in a John III game.

2. The real question now is whether the Allies are in a position to build on Sumatra while it's still serving as a distraction. It's going to be a close thing, I think.

3. I've given some consideration to the next major invasion being a reinforcement of Sumatra, but that's now far down on my list of options, simply because of the size of the enemy airfields, presence of enemy air HQs, and the massive number of enemy aircraft there. Far more likely that Circus will proceed as outlines previously.

John not having a deep perimeter is better for his economy and long term health of the Empire. It's fun, but not sustainable. Whether he's prepared a defense will be seen later.

[Canoerebel]

Lots of intangibles too. The loss of Medan's oil; the length of time KB's been at sea; ditto the BBs; attrition to the Kaigun (especially cruisers and destroyers); moving men around, first to stop the invasions of Sumatra and Malaya, then back to Burma; etc. Intangibles like these are hard to evaluate in the short term and the long term. But, for instance, the last time I caught sight of a major enemy combat TF, all of the major vessels were showing smoke. IE, John's been operating pretty hard.

In contrast, the Allied fleet is largely rested. The only thing that's been stressed are those units on Sumatra. For awhile, especially back in January, I wondered what the Allied OOB might look like if the worst thing happened and John managed to vanquish Sumatra. Enough time has passed to look at that carefully. I'm not discounting the loss of those units - the divisions, HQs, engineers, base forces - but it's not going to degrade my ability to fight going forward. I won't have enough army left to vanquish the whole empire. But I will have what's needed to defeat the empire. Or so I believe.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lots of intangibles too. The loss of Medan's oil; the length of time KB's been at sea; ditto the BBs; attrition to the Kaigun (especially cruisers and destroyers); moving men around, first to stop the invasions of Sumatra and Malaya, then back to Burma; etc. Intangibles like these are hard to evaluate in the short term and the long term. But, for instance, the last time I caught sight of a major enemy combat TF, all of the major vessels were showing smoke. IE, John's been operating pretty hard.

In contrast, the Allied fleet is largely rested. The only thing that's been stressed are those units on Sumatra. For awhile, especially back in January, I wondered what the Allied OOB might look like if the worst thing happened and John managed to vanquish Sumatra. Enough time has passed to look at that carefully. I'm not discounting the loss of those units - the divisions, HQs, engineers, base forces - but it's not going to degrade my ability to fight going forward. I won't have enough army left to vanquish the whole empire. But I will have what's needed to defeat the empire. Or so I believe.

Good observations. I always say it's really the players who'll know how the opponent is doing, much more than the most experienced of us outside the game. It's the little things, if you notice them. The smoke from ships in combat, the odd results from airframes that should be better (poor pilot quality, airframe fatigue, inattention to leaders).

Medan is a big producer. Losing it for a year is a lot of oil, and getting it back at half former production furthers that blow. It's not a little bit of supply needed to evict Marine divisions and replace thousands of lost airframes, troop devices and of course the ships don't come back, so that is very measurable hurt.

These are all reasons why this is going to be an interesting year in your game! By the middle of 44 the effects should be clear for both sides.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Having lost a significant portion of the KB quite a bit earlier than mid-43 (Dec 8 to be exact), I question your premise that a CV battle at this point will spell doom for the Japanese. [:)]

1. You assume John will take significant losses. Assuming he will be up to date on his airframes (with Judys, Jills and A6M5b/c) the Japanese aren't so easy to push over in mid-43. Plus naval tactics happen to be the man's strong point, as we all know too well.

Well, in the end this is a naval game. I don't know how much stronger KB is in John's mod but there comes a time when as the Allies you have got to start trading carriers. No need for a smashing victory but I will take any fight with KB after mid 43 when I think I can trade.

2. The Japanese aren't potentially fixed in Sumatra for long. If he does knock out Allied troops (and destroy several major divisions that will be largely irreplaceable before 45 due to replacement rates) he can simply move divisions to reserve areas in already prepared defensive spots. I'm sure he hasn't been neglecting to build strong points and consider some rear defenses.

3. The Pacific requires lots of APA/AKA and ideally the LST/LCI that are just starting to come in numbers. I believe the APA/AKA are just now getting the majority converted. So the Pacific will be an option, but not if the Allies draw or lose a CV battle. LBA is strong in this mod, and the Japanese have extra fleet recources as well. On top of that he's got a bunch of those massive SNLF defense units with decent DP guns, much more than stock. It's not going to be easy.

Once again, I am not familiar with the mod but I am about six weeks ahead of this game in my own game and I am starting to swim in APAs and AKAs. They really start to come on in numbers. No shortage of LSTs either.

4. Japanese tanks stil work into 44-45. If they're in good terrain they still aren't bad. From the two games that have gone deep fro me and a few late game tests H to H I can say that in spite of the stats, Japanese tank divisions are well designed for defensive purposes and can hold with forts in good terrain.

No, I have not seen that vs Japanese tanks. Yes, defensively any dug in Japanese can be strong. But I was talking offensively. Just like the historical, once the Allies get the 1943 upgrades, it becomes very tough for the Japanese to fight offensively. Of course, air power still trumps.

5. If John has lost this game, you might as well say every Japanese player has lost the game by mid-43. [;)]

No but as Canoe points out, John is burning the candle too bright. This all comes back in 1945. I think a good conservative way to Allied victory is to force the Japanese to fight and grind in 43. The fuel and supply burn is not sustainable in the long run.

It's still very up in the air, and to assume otherwise would not be good for the Allied prognosis. CR is preparing to move as he's just shown, but also has appropriate measures in place to lead John into a "tarbaby" if he follows his usual style. That is good play, preparing for your opponent's psychology, but you can't depend he'll blunder into something stupid and base strategy around that.

I do agree with you about Japanese air parity. The Japanese air force should hold their own until 1944. If the data from DaBabes is being used in this mod, then the Jack and George have been way overpowered with both of them flying at 400 mph. This is a real problem as my opponent is crapping out Jacks in mid 43 like crazy. It is basically the same as a Frank now only it comes a hell of a lot sooner. Same with the George. In stock the Hellcat makes a great land based fighter. In this one it gets eaten alive. Even most of the Allied Corsairs have been nerfed to fly slower than 400 mph. Gotta be careful. The upside is that Allies AA is king. I bought out every heavy AA unit I could. Really makes Japanese bombers much less effective. To the point where I sometimes just don't bother with CAP over a base with good AA units.
[/quote]

[Canoerebel]

That's the truth about AA. John has an entire air force sitting next to Ramree Island and faces no fighter opposition whatsoever. Yet he's afraid to bomb the base due to AA. So Allied operations will be bringing every AA unit available. That's part of the Longstreet Doctrine: Seize the high ground and then let the enemy attack and bleed.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I do agree with you about Japanese air parity. The Japanese air force should hold their own until 1944. If the data from DaBabes is being used in this mod, then the Jack and George have been way overpowered with both of them flying at 400 mph. This is a real problem as my opponent is crapping out Jacks in mid 43 like crazy. It is basically the same as a Frank now only it comes a hell of a lot sooner. Same with the George. In stock the Hellcat makes a great land based fighter. In this one it gets eaten alive. Even most of the Allied Corsairs have been nerfed to fly slower than 400 mph. Gotta be careful. The upside is that Allies AA is king. I bought out every heavy AA unit I could. Really makes Japanese bombers much less effective. To the point where I sometimes just don't bother with CAP over a base with good AA units.

[/quote]

[/quote]The Jack was a fantastic plane, and should have been slightly better than stock, but I agree, it's a bit better than is good for balance with Symon's new numbers. Production can be virtually unlimited, but of course there is a cost to the Japanese economy for everything.

Just looked through the sheet of changes in the scenario. Wow. I know the Allies get some stuff, but the Japanese get a whole new class of CV and lots of em. I'd have to compare OOBs but it looks like aruond 6 additional? A revised and improved Shokaku. Speaking of AA, they get more bette DDs earlier with enhanced AA.

All upgrades come earlier and with better AA including a Japanese Bofors system. There are also a bunch of units upgraded to 88mm guns fro the Japanese. New BCs, earlier arrival of virtually everything. A plethora of CD units and SNLFs can combine into brigades. It's nuts.

For CV air he'll have armored A6M3b in 43 and slightly after he'll get N1K4 "Georges" to play with, on CVs!! [X(]

The strike planes are also made in armored versions, (Grace and Judy), which is scary, and it gets worse at the end when you'll see an IJN LBA version of the Ki-83 plus an A7M3 with 6 x 20mm canons!![:D][X(][:-]

i could go on, because the OOD change log list is 18 pages long, but I'll just link it. It's scary.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyZWx1Y3RhbnRhZG1pcmFsfGd4Ojc1NzE5MmE3NmJhNjA3NDA

[ny59giants]

No Jack in this mod or the other two mods. John wanted to streamline production as he voiced that Japan decides to go all in with the various Zero models.

In stock Japan gets 10 CVs as builds while in RA they get 8. After Junyo and Hiyo, they get 6 Shokaku-kai Class CVs vs 6 Unryu Class and no Taiyo or Shinano. They do get a few more CVLs.

[Lowpe]

Matsu DDs, those late war builds, can be upgraded to carry Kaitens.

Oh,my. That will be interesting.

Plus the Liz...I always thought it might make a nice long range port strike platform

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: obvert

John not having a deep perimeter is better for his economy and long term health of the Empire. It's fun, but not sustainable. Whether he's prepared a defense will be seen later.

I don't think his perimeter is large enough to protect vital resource and oil centers into early 1944. He will be fighting to keep them operational and the lines of communication open to exploit them. It will be ugly for the Japanese as they won't be able to trade space for time. The Japanese will be like the Confderates in the Civil War, forced to fight wherever the Allies attack. Every combat loss being irreplaceable while the Allies keep adding more units. Eventually the military and economic losses will be too much and the Japanese defense will collapse.

I just hope John goes out with a bang instead of a whimper as an observer.