The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lecivius]

He has to be aware of the stacking limits and penalties, he made note of them when he was going through the mod design. Why disregard them now?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One way might be to seriously reinforce that stack on the east side, where he currently has 5 divisions against my 3. As noted yesterday, 15th IJ Division is inbound to Medan. Also, at least two divisions (including 2nd Tank) that I had expected on the west side didn't show there. Where have they gone? Will John seriously reinforce on the east? He already has 75k troops in a hex with 55k limit, so his supply draw will be tough, though he may well be flush enough to proceed.

I do like the fact that John is continuing to reinforce here and that KB is still on station, though I didn't catch sight of her today. Also, if John gets to preoccupied with bombarding Allied armies for too long, airfields might become operational again.

Friction has long been my friend in this theater, but time is my ally. We're starting to get deep enough into spring that this is becoming a material aspect. May it continue for weeks to come.

From my recent experience in a H to H endgame test, overstacking has two very dire consequences for an attacking army.

1. When overstacking starts to get above about 10% it's almost impossible to keep those units in good supply.
2. Fatigue and disruption increase proportionally to the amount overstacked.

He's already +25% overstacked if your numbers are correct, which makes me think he'll not be able to either win that battle or add more troops. He'd be better off to rotate units into the hext and attack only after about 5-6 days of constant bombardments from sea, air and land. Rotate the shattered units out, then repeat. This will wear down your troops but only over time.

So you're absolutely right, time is your ally here.

Yep, I have faced it too. I shudder to think what it will take to dig out Marines and their TOE!

[Canoerebel]

If John is facing roadblocks on both sides that he thinks can't be overcome within a reasonable amount of time, then his only remaining option is to invade Langsa or Sabang to try for a coup-de-main victory. I've felt that was his best route to victory for months now, so I'm alert to this possibility. I have my defenses configured, but obviously a massive invasion will be threatening. On the plus side, any such undertaking should disrupt his troops badly, giving the Allies time to shift units around to reinforce hotspots. That's the plan anyhow.

So what will John do.

And, meantime, he has other carriers and troops available so that he might also move elsewhere.

So many possibilities out there. So many opportunities. So much risk. So much danger.

AE is quite a game, isn't it?

[Mike McCreery]

[:)]

[Lecivius]

A direct assault via an amphibious operation will also use up a very large portion of his shipping, which in '43 should be better used to feed the war machine. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. And his bonus is long gone. It will hurt, even if it goes flawlessly.

[Canoerebel]

I think he'll try a max out effort in the contested hex - BBs bombarding, all strike aircraft striking, and then an all-out assault by the infantry - before he gives up on the east side route to victory. There is a chance that might work.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

A direct assault via an amphibious operation will also use up a very large portion of his shipping, which in '43 should be better used to feed the war machine. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. And his bonus is long gone. It will hurt, even if it goes flawlessly.

For Japan, even with DBB Limits, there are ample big fast xAP/xAK/AMC/LSD ships available at this stage. I haven't checked to see if the IJN gets additional of these in the mod, but he should have no problem with lift since these are not the ships you use to haul resources/fuel. After the first year mine are mainly hauling units back to defensive positions from forward areas or bringing new units from the HI out. The economy won't be affected even if he needed to haul 6-8 division equivalents, although that would stretch his best options a bit past the limit, most likely.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lecivius
A direct assault via an amphibious operation will also use up a very large portion of his shipping, which in '43 should be better used to feed the war machine. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. And his bonus is long gone. It will hurt, even if it goes flawlessly.

For Japan, even with DBB Limits, there are ample big fast xAP/xAK/AMC/LSD ships available at this stage. I haven't checked to see if the IJN gets additional of these in the mod, but he should have no problem with lift since these are not the ships you use to haul resources/fuel. After the first year mine are mainly hauling units back to defensive positions from forward areas or bringing new units from the HI out. The economy won't be affected even if he needed to haul 6-8 division equivalents, although that would stretch his best options a bit past the limit, most likely.

Not to mention the IJN isn't going to be using them for very long for such an operation and it sits very close to Japanese fuel and supply lines. This isn't like launching a multi division assault deep in the South Pacific.

[Mike McCreery]

For all the goodies that John gets I believe he starts with a deficit of supply from the normal right? Something like 1,000,000 tons?

How large a factor is that in the final calculus?

[Canoerebel]

4/8/43

Battle of Sumatra: John continues to bring intense pressure to bear all around the island, though much of it just isn't having the impact you'd expect. He's like the Allied air commands in Europe during World War II, thinking bombing alone would bring the Reich to its knees, but when all was said and done, the infantry had to go in and dig them out. I think that's what John is facing here.

One BB and a host of CAs bombard Sabang while other CAs bombard Langsa. Enemy bombers hit Langsa and, across the island, 1st Marines. None of these efforts have a meaningful impact, although 1st Marines continues to have supply issue on alternating days.

John has pulled two divisions out of the contested hex south of Langsa. My first thought is that he's going to attack by rotating fresh divisions in to replace tired ones. The second possiblity is that he might embark some of these divisions aboard ship to invade. Either possibility is plausible.

And, bless him, the KB is still on station, nine hexes SW of Sabang, hitting the Marines in large numbers. Every reader here knows how helpful it is to know the precise whereabouts of enemy carriers. And while these guys are steaming in circles and thus not accruing significant wear and tear, they have been at sea a long time.

Langsa is the tougher nut of the two given the proxmity of so many Allied divisions. On the other hand, John won't need the KB to invade there. If he invades Sabang, however, he'll want the KB stationed to the NW to ward off forays by the Allied carriers. I haven't mentioned the Allied carriers in a long, long time, but I'll say this: they are rested, have finally rebuilt their fighter squadrons, and in two days one fighter group will be able to upgrade to Hellcats.

[Lecivius]

I'm not saying John can't do it. I'm saying it's gonna hurt. And it will. Yes, he is close to his core supply & fuel lines. But he is not hauling the right way. Plus John will be on the offensive in mid 43 trying to maintain the initiative with an amphibious operation. That costs. This is a good thing but it can make his economy come completely off the rails in 45, unless he is pretty careful. Plus Dan has John reacting to him, not the other way around. This can only be a good thing.

I've lost count of Japanese divisions in play. How many would be available for a landing if John goes for broke?

[Canoerebel]

I think John has at least 10 divisions in Sumatra. Five of those are currently accounted for on the front lines. So he has at least five available in the immediate vicinity for amphibious operations. And I'm sure he has more than that close by. If he does come, he'll want to bring a great deal. He knows Langsa and Sabang both hold a great many troops. I'm sure he likewise knows that alot of these units are support units. He'll also know there are fighting units and forts involved and that disruption will be an item to contend with. Not to mention stacking limits. I think Sabang is 75k. Langsa is probably the same or less. (I need to check these as that's a serious consideration - he probably can't invade with six divisions if he goes seriously over the stacking limits.)

John said a long, long time ago that this whole thing was like pealing away layers of an onion. That was an apt description.

He also said on the February 15 turn that he could "safely say" that the fate of Sumatra would be decided by March 1. I didn't particularly appreciate that comment at the time but I won't remind him of it. Better to just hunker down and fight and see how long the Allies can drag this thing out. I think the odds of the Allies holding are pretty slim, but I think the odds of holding long enough to matter are pretty high.

[witpqs]

I've lost count of Japanese divisions in play. How many would be available for a landing if John goes for broke?

Don't know but I was just thinking that given those 4 units on the west turned out to be 2 divisions (not 4), he has 2 more than previously thought, whatever ones they might be. Interesting times!

[Canoerebel]

One of those two is 2nd Tank Division. I have the ID of the other in my notes. It's one of the infantry divisions.

SigInt keeps showing 15th Div. inbound to Medan, which would mean at least 11 divisions on the island (five front line, six further back). 15th was at Changsha in early January. So he bought it and has (apparently) committed it to Sumatra. For reasons you readers know, I prefer seeing it go there than Java or New Britian or New Guinea. Sumatra may be a lost cause. But if it is a lost cause it had better be a time-sucking, energy-sucking, resource-sucking, manpower-sucking black hole.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lecivius
A direct assault via an amphibious operation will also use up a very large portion of his shipping, which in '43 should be better used to feed the war machine. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. And his bonus is long gone. It will hurt, even if it goes flawlessly.

For Japan, even with DBB Limits, there are ample big fast xAP/xAK/AMC/LSD ships available at this stage. I haven't checked to see if the IJN gets additional of these in the mod, but he should have no problem with lift since these are not the ships you use to haul resources/fuel. After the first year mine are mainly hauling units back to defensive positions from forward areas or bringing new units from the HI out. The economy won't be affected even if he needed to haul 6-8 division equivalents, although that would stretch his best options a bit past the limit, most likely.

Not to mention the IJN isn't going to be using them for very long for such an operation and it sits very close to Japanese fuel and supply lines. This isn't like launching a multi division assault deep in the South Pacific.

While all of the above is true, it still requires time to assemble all of the forces necessary to conduct such a massive operation. It would be next to impossible to prevent the Allies from gathering intelligence of an impending amphibious operation of the proposed scale.

Assume for the moment the Japanese can pull off a successful amphibious operation and capture Sabang within the next 30 days. How long will it take the Japanese to eradicate the remaining Allied forces on Sumatra, refit the units on Sumatra, and then redeploy them as needed? The transport shipping for redeploying 10+ divisions and support troops to other forward locations will not be insignificant, nor will be the time and fuel required for the transport. Simultaneously, the IJN will have to stand down for some long deferred maintenance and upgrades to ships that participated in the Battle of Sumatra. If the Japanese desire to use the forces in an offensive capacity, then they will also have to allow preparation time. While this is occurring the Allies' strength will be growing.

I think it okay for the Allies to be more than cautiously optimistic at this point in the game. It will take a catastrophic blunder for the Allies to lose the game. I have confidence Canoerebel will avoid such a blunder given the quality of his play thus far.

[Canoerebel]

Poodle, thanks for the vote of confidence. As you might imagine, my fond thoughts run very much along the lines you describe - that John faces big logistical hurdles that will take time and use resources. It's probably not nearly that rosy. Things can turn pretty quickly, John might be screaming "Banzai!" for weeks, and then he might be able to move with alactrity to tend to untended matters. But the clock is ticking. The calendar pages are flipping. Things that seemed impossibly far off on January 25, 1943, no longer seem impossibly far off. Or, for that matter, impossible.

[Canoerebel]

While looking for a point of information pages back, I came across this in the post for the January 26, 1943 turn:

Hunting Grounds: Sumatra is a tough and tight and dangerous place to be right now. Things look increasingly dark, though not yet hopeless. It's January 26, 1943. Keep fighting!

[Canoerebel]

Stacking limit at Langsa is 55k. Sabang is 95k.

So John could comfortably invade Langsa with four divisions (or is it just three)? I don't think that's enough to pose a credible threat to the base. At least short term. Perhaps over time with bombardments and bombing it would work. Maybe. But that could also just mire down.

Sabang, on the other hand, might hold five divisions (or could he shoehorn in six)? That's enough to pose a credible threat, especially with bombardments and bombing. So I'll make a few tweaks to deployment status. I have 600 AV 100% prepped fully supplied with four forts and SWPac 100% prepped. To offset that, John has been prepping divisions and HQs for quite some time.

So, unless I've made a miscalculation, John's best and perhaps only route to victory within a reasonable time frame is to invade Sabang.

The one thing I like about that is it should mean he'll keep the KB handy to block attacks by the Allied carriers.

[witpqs]

I also think this operation has been fantastically successful. I'm not suggesting that some sort of failure is imminent, rather I am 'actively reading' (participating in) the AAR and wondering what is going to happen next!

[Lecivius]

Man, a 6 division amphibious assault would be in line with Overlord [X(]