The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[crsutton]

You should have the MK12 mine by now. The route to bombard Sabang is fairly straight forward. Use your subs and plop a few for him to run through on his way to Sabang. I find that if they are in the target base they are all but useless as they never seem the hit a bombardment TF. But if a TF has to run though a minefield-even a small one, then that is a different story. Mk12s are ship killers. They will degrade fast in non base hexes but if he is running almost daily, it won't matter.

[Canoerebel]

4/9/43

Battle of Sumatra: The pattern continues - no enemy ground attacks, no additional troops in the two contested hexes, lots of bombers, and capital ships bombarding both Allied bases.

John must simply be waiting for his invasion force to prep enough to chance an amphibious assault. This may have been his plan all along - just punish through air and sea power while waiting until the time is ripe to strike. That's a pretty good plan - he punishes and, in return, the Allies get some time. But something's going to have to give soon I think. I can't see John letting this continue another month.

KB moved a bit closer to Sabang and 100+ Jills flew ineffective strikes against 1st Marine Div.

It's a tough, challenging, protracted campaign.

SWPac: Peanuts 2 and 3 will reach Capetown in a few days. Peanut 4 will leave Chittagong for Bombay tomorrow. Peanut 1 left Capetown quite some time ago. SigInt over the past few weeks has shown John reinforcing Tabituea, Ocean Island, and Munda with brigade-sized or smaller units, while enemy divisions are at Soerabaja (4th), Rabaul and Lunga. Exmouth is held by a brigade. Enemy ships sighted at some of the islands near Milne Bay. And John is actively looking for further Allied moves in the Ellice Islands (a sub sank a supply xAKL inbound to Vitupu).

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

Man, a 6 division amphibious assault would be in line with Overlord [X(]

I got to thinking on this last night (I have no life). This would be huge, vast, overwhelming...

And exactly what John is known for [:D] Let's think on this.

1. He knows he can't come up the east or west side, stacking limits would kill him (as discussed).

2. There are at least 6, and probably more, divisions unaccounted for and at hand.

3. He has the shipping, and the resources, and very close at hand ( I did not think Japan had that much capacity until reading this AAR).

4. He can't leave you here.

5. From his various bombardments, recons, etc, he has a very good idea what you have here, and can plan accordingly.

6. An amphibious attack is brief, and for a short period can discount the stacking limits (many AFB's do it on island assaults).

7. He's running out of time. A long ground campaign is his enemy, and he knows it.

8. John always attacks. Always.

To quote another invasion "They're coming". He has to.

[Canoerebel]

I agree. I've known that was his best shot for months. But it really hit home yesterday when discussing the stacking limits. I'll discuss this more in just a moment.

[Canoerebel]

4/10/43

Battle of Sumatra: More bombardments, a host of bombing, but no sign of imminent large campaign for the contested hex on the east side.

On the west side, a new IJ units is northbound - probably a division that will give John three in this hex. 1st Marines, reinforced by tanks and the picket RCT could hold against three divisions in this terrain, I think, if supply were only reliable. But it alternates - good one turn, bad the next.

So, do I pull back 1st Marines a couple more hexes closer to Sabang, thus perhaps increasing supply and drawing John's units that much closer to Sabang? That, in turn, puts the units closer to the key base if John does elect to massively invade. But it also enhances the possibility that John could combine a ground force with an invasion force, should he be able to blow through the blocking forces on the west road. This is a delicate proposition, because if John does manage to take the hex in battle, the Allied units will probably be badly roughed up.

I'm not sure which way to go yet, but a protracted ground campaign is still preferable to a coup-de-main, assuming it was successful.

KB vs. Death Star: This was a signal day for the US Navy. Saratoga swapped out F4Fs for Hellcats. The Allied carriers will soon move into attack position to seek opportunities should any arise. But, for now, the KB remains close by Sabang, with Jills flying daily bombing missions. (None of John's strike missions are effective against ground troops in jungle terrain, but I think this are supply-usage missions.)

SWPac: A host of assault ships (including AK, AP, and some APA) have moved into theater in recent weeks.

Operation Circus: This could get underway in as soon as 40 days and no later than 60 days.

SoPac: SigInt that an IJ amphibious brigade is inbound to Vitupu in the Ellice Islands. The base was recently taken by about 4 AV from a Marine CD unit. It was meant as no more than a way to draw some of John's attention and assets out to this flank, which I think has been modestly successful.

[witpqs]

CR,

This is just a snippet of a bit on supply that originated with the developers. Basically, take the supply cost for each hex from the unit in question to the base (from the terrain chart in the manual, see attached below) and subtract them from '100'. Do account for the lesser cost of roads (that's in the chart). The total you are left with determines whether the unit is at short range, medium range, or long range.

Short range is trace value of 89 - 100 and is used 4 times per week.
Medium range is trace value 49 - 100 and is used 2 times per week.
Long range is trace value 10 - 100 and is used 1 time per week.

Here is the trick: the above are cumulative. So a unit at short range gets a supply 7 days per week (4 + 2 + 1), a unit at medium range gets one 3 days per week (2 + 1), and a unit at long range gets a supply pull 1 day per week.

[Canoerebel]

Interesting. I'll do the exact calculation when I open the game, but my west coast defenders must be at medium range, drawing supply three times a week. The "good road" is a few hexes to the north and would probably put them in range to draw every day.

Conversely, John is dealing with one jungle-rough hex and a bunch of yellow road hexes. He might only be drawing once a week already, but drawing him further up the road could cement that (I'll do that calculation too).

So it may make sense for 1st Marines to retire to the gray road (and I believe there is a jungle-rough gray road about three or four hexes SW of Sabang). They can probably fight more reliabably and effectively longer than further down the road, meaning the actual defense of Sabang would be more protracted.

[paullus99]

I agree that a tighter perimeter makes it easier for you to defend from multiple axis....given John's propensity for the "coup de main" it doesn't really make sense to me that he'd continue to push for a protracted campaign fighting overland - especially since it would just push your troops back to Sabang anyway.

An amphibious assault is the only thing that makes sense, since it is the only thing you "can't" see coming.

[Canoerebel]

The one drawback to retreating a bit (to get closer to reliable supply, as explained above) is that it opens up the possibility that John could then cross the island to sever the road between Langsa and Sabang. This would take time, and I should be able to move to block it, so it's not a major concern.

I'm leaning towards starting 1st Marines up the road (in combat mode, so it'll take awhile) while leaving the picket RCT and the tanks right where they are, at least temporarily.

[witpqs]

When it comes to holding Sabang, Langsa is a distraction for you.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

When it comes to holding Sabang, Langsa is a distraction for you.

If he pulled out of Langsa wouldnt it give John just one area to focus on rather than two?

[paullus99]

Probably not a bad idea to have both....but obviously, if you lose Sabang, you lose the campaign anyway.

[Canoerebel]

Right now Langsa is very helpful. It creates a defense in depth, it's strongly held, and it divides John's attention. He has to stay on his toes (a bit) to keep both airfields suppressed. He already slipped once in doing so, resulting in effective Allied air strikes against enemy shipping at Sinabang. And it just creates a more menacing appearance, so that the campaign seems bigger and the Allied lodgement more menacing. If John takes Langsa, suddenly the Allies look like they're facing a Dunkirk, and perhaps John enters a wind-down phase. I don't want that. I want him fully engaged. I want 10 divisions tied down. And I want the KB posted in that blocking position as long as possible.

[Canoerebel]

Regarding the defense of Sabang, my thoughts run like this: The hex currently has 500 AV with another 300 to 500 just a day or two away. The base has four forts. There is 100% prep with SWPac 100% prepped. (But prep is going to be offset by the enemy having similar numbers, I think). Say John comes with six divisions. They will be badly disrupted in landing, even with full prep (I think???). If they are badly disrupted, then overstacking will become an issue. Thus, I don't think even six divisions would guarantee victory, at least in the short term.

What do you think?

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Regarding the defense of Sabang, my thoughts run like this: The hex currently has 500 AV with another 300 to 500 just a day or two away. The base has four forts. There is 100% prep with SWPac 100% prepped. (But prep is going to be offset by the enemy having similar numbers, I think). Say John comes with six divisions. They will be badly disrupted in landing, even with full prep (I think???). If they are badly disrupted, then overstacking will become an issue. Thus, I don't think even six divisions would guarantee victory, at least in the short term.

What do you think?

You have done everything you can to prepare.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Regarding the defense of Sabang, my thoughts run like this: The hex currently has 500 AV with another 300 to 500 just a day or two away. The base has four forts. There is 100% prep with SWPac 100% prepped. (But prep is going to be offset by the enemy having similar numbers, I think). Say John comes with six divisions. They will be badly disrupted in landing, even with full prep (I think???). If they are badly disrupted, then overstacking will become an issue. Thus, I don't think even six divisions would guarantee victory, at least in the short term.

What do you think?

If they are 100% prepared - and that's a big 'if': my middle name is Clueless [:D] - they will not be badly disrupted due to landing. The length of time they spend in ships and the type of ships will factor greatly in how disrupted they are. I don't know what the mod holds, but generally after the amphib bonus is gone Japan has mostly ships that will cause disruption to amphibiously loaded troops.

However the stacking limits might not hinder recovery as much as it sounds like you think. The degere of over stacking matters a whole lot. 110% of the limit? Nothing. 150%? A little. 200%? Some for sure, but not horrible. 300% (200% over the limit)? Under very good conditions (which he will have) you would have trouble getting some units below the teens % in disruption. Supply consumption far higher than usual. Might not pay to go that high, but would he have to? BTW the level of supply on hand figures greatly in troop recovery. If he knows that he will bring plenty.

My AAR has a number of island/atoll invasions where the stacking limit made a difference and was discussed.

[HansBolter]

I beg to differ a bit on the overstacking issue.

I THINK factors such as terrain type and relative scale may have impacts here that I can't quantify well.

I have had a siege going on a city in Manchuria for about 3 months wherein I initially overstacked 75K troops in a 55K limit hex.

I had such serious trouble recovering disruption and fatigue after deliberate assaults, stretching out interminably the duration between assaults that I eventually relived the overstacking and can now attack about every 7 days instead of every two weeks.

20% overstack on a 6K limit atoll is negligible.

20% overstack on a 55K limit city in a woods hex is not negligible.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

I beg to differ a bit on the overstacking issue.

I THINK factors such as terrain type and relative scale may have impacts here that I can't quantify well.

I have had a siege going on a city in Manchuria for about 3 months wherein I initially overstacked 75K troops in a 55K limit hex.

I had such serious trouble recovering disruption and fatigue after deliberate assaults, stretching out interminably the duration between assaults that I eventually relived the overstacking and can now attack about every 7 days instead of every two weeks.

20% overstack on a 6K limit atoll is negligible.

20% overstack on a 55K limit city in a woods hex is not negligible.

Jump into my AAR & let's discuss the (former) situation at Lang Son, with ~100% over stacking (~200% of limit). I say jump in there only so the discussion can include opsec sensitive items.

Also, the context here is an invasion with a relatively short-term of battles after (if the sledgehammer was used to swat the fly, so to speak). I agree that over stacking does matter and matters a lot, both strategically and tactically. For a limited time and if enough supply is provided, it can be endured when needed.

[Canoerebel]

Since Sabang is close to John's ports of embarkation, time in transit shouldn't be a problem. Neither should supply.

[Lecivius]

I admittedly don't know enough about Japanese amphibious operations mid war. That said, he is putting all his chips on the table in this. I don't think 500 AV behind lvl 4 forts is gonna be enough. And you might not get more than a day to react.

It sure as heck would (and will) give me ulcers. And it's not even my game! [:'(]