The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

The intel on the carrier force is accurate. I've had multiple sightings for months, mainly in the vicinity of Sabang but also for a couple of days near Diego Garcia. Too, for the past several weeks the carriers have been flying sorties of Jills escorted by Zeroes against 1st Marines and 18th UK Division in Sumatra (with the number of Jills always like 125). I hope John will keep using the KB just this way, but he hasn't for the past several days nor have I seen KB nor have carrier-based strike aircraft been flying massed ASW missions against Allied subs in the vicinity. So I'm anxiously waiting to see if the KB is here or not. I prefer that she be posted her or somewhere in the Circus perimeter as opposed to in between or in a place I can't see her. If she's in Circus territory, I can move on Sabang. If she's near Sabang, Circus is a go. If I don't know where she is, moving forward boldy has to hold (even while activity continues behind the front lines to get as much in place as soon as possible).

The top target priority for Circus is the Java, Timor, northern Oz (Derby, Broom, Port Headland, Exmouth) area. Over the past three months, SigInt has shown just three items of reinforcement (4th Div. to Soerabaja and base forces to Dili and Denpasar) while the rest of the region has lots of weaknesses. Allied ground units are about to move (overland) on Tennant Creek and on Exmouth. These will rely on Dakotas for supply until they arrive at their destinations. The Allies have big airfields at Carnavon and Alice Springs and the two airfields on/near the Gulf of (Carpathia???). IF KB isn't posted in this area, the Allies can definitely move in big enough force to overwhelm local opposition and get airfields operational before KB can arrive. And these places are close enough to Allied airfields to make logistics that much easier. In part, this operation depends on Sumatra keeping John's focus. It will also involve a feint on the Ellice Islands area, which I think John is primed to consider a real target.

If things fall apart of Circus in the Java/Oz region, then the Allies can shift pretty quickly to New Guinea or the Admiralties or the Santa Cruz Islands.

The key is that the Allies have to have carrier superiority to proceed. If John suddenly pulls everything away from Sumatra to the Circus area, then the Allies probably shift back to Sumatra. I'm pretty sure - absent KB - that the Death Star will allow me to get things running again at Sabang.

I'm anxiously scouring SigInt every turn for signs of Just in Time Reinforcements Part III. Long-time readers will recall Just in Time Reinforcements Parts I and II where, just prior to massive Allied invasions, John reinforced the exact islands targeted (first the Aluetians in summer '42 and then New Guinea region in autumn '42). It wasn't just that he was focusing on the exact targets, but that he was focusing only on them. He wasn't reinforcing any other place on the map. It was unnerving. So if I detect a Just in Time reinforcement event, I'll shift targets to New Guinea or Santa Cruz or Sabang region.

[witpqs]

Maybe John knows your psyche as well as you know his!

[jwolf]

Gulf of (Carpathia???)

Carpentaria. Thanks for the day by day views of your strategy and possible ops going into the future. At Sabang, I have to figure your opponent knows he is under the clock and has to get some kind of big breakthrough pretty quickly. That may (?) cause him to take a riskier attack approach and if so I hope you can capitalize.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

"As of two days ago, a stout enemy carrier force (250 fighters, 250 strike aircraft) was posted just SW of Sabang. "

If the sighting is accurate (big if) that is roughly just shy of 2/3 of the Japanese carrier strength.

I keep thinking on that intel on the division to Medan. I'm pretty sure this destination is a misdirect, and this is part of the inbound invasion. If so, he's probably less than a week out. Next few days are gut check time

In this mod Japan gets way more CV/CVL/CVE power, and earlier than stock. That carrier force may represent only 1/3 of the Japanese force. John may have a rotation going to keep up sorties and fix up system damage.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

"As of two days ago, a stout enemy carrier force (250 fighters, 250 strike aircraft) was posted just SW of Sabang. "

If the sighting is accurate (big if) that is roughly just shy of 2/3 of the Japanese carrier strength.

More like less than 1/2.[;)] 1/3rd might be right...plus or minus.

It is fun to read all these divergent views.[:D]

[Lecivius]

I was counting on fingers & toes [:(] But I knew it was not KB.

[Canoerebel]

I think it represents more than half based upon what he can have available in April '43 less Hiyo, which was either sunk or badly damaged about two months ago.

Circus was named for a reason. If John remains focused on Sumatra (with half hisi carriers or more) the Allies will invade in force from SWPac, as detailed above. The thought of moving in force in the not too distant future is an exciting one.

But here's one thing I've only hinted at. In the event of Just in Time Reinforcements Part III - if John does indeed shift his assets to SWPac to block Circus - the Allies can shift everything to Sumatra petty quickly. Imagine for just a moment if I was able to draw John's attention to SWPac...only to cross him up by bringing in the complete Death Start and a massive invasion force to reinforce Sumatra, with the objective being to restrore combat ships to Sabang and have the airfield fully up and running again.

That's an interesting possibility. And the juggling required to put my assets where John's aint is a delicate and inexact science. But it's why I have my carriers position where they are and haven't spoken much about them....other than to mention that Wasp is fully repaired, Saratoga now holds Hellcats, and Essex arrives at Balboa in something like 20 days or less.

[Lecivius]

I just wanted to be sure you new in this mod that was not the whole KB out there, and predicated your plans on it. I didn't want you to get bushwhacked. Sounds like you have a plan. I'll go back to watching the show [;)]

P.S.

I hope it's OK I use your name. I saw it from Johns AAR's a long time ago. I'm taking liberties here.

[Canoerebel]

4/12/43

Battle of Sumatra: Today was very similar to so many previous days in Sumatra, meaning John is hammering Allied ground troops and bases but there still isn't a sign of imminent invasion. However, as we've all discussed so raptly the past few days, invasion is almost a certainty...and in the short term. And the Allies won't get much notice since the airfields are shut down and John's likely ports of embarkation are so close.

BBs bombarded Langsa today. Enemy strike aircraft focused mainly on Langsa and on the 1st Marine and 18th UK positions on the west side.

2nd IJA Tank Division showed up today at the 1st Marines hex. This gives John enough to take the hex if he attacks when my units don't have supply and his do. (1st Marines is 14 miles into the march to leave the hex for the next one to the north; any attack should come soon, so this withdrawal by choice may be moot.) I am glad, though, to know John has this much committed. On the west side, one division (1st Marine) is holding back three enemy divisions. On the east side two divisions have been holding back anywhere from three to six (currently three, though more may be at Medan).

A US division and an Indian brigade reported for duty at Sabang (from Langsa). And a US RCT arrived at Sabang after briefly journeying a few hexes south on the west road. Total AV at Sabang is currently 1k with 18th UK Div. (140 AV - it's recovering from heavy losses early in the campaign) a few days away.

Allied supply will be full for any fighting that takes place at or near Sabang or Langsa in the next 30 days or so (and perhaps 45 days or so).

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, it's fine to use my name, "Dan." Or you can just call me "Esquire," "Your Honor," or "Your Eminence."

Any of those are fine.

[poodlebrain]

So while most of the combat action and AAR activity for the past three months has focused almost exlusively on Sumatra, there's been a great deal of work going into the next phase of the war.

It's not only what has been happening elsewhere that is being overlooked. It is also what hasn't happened, hasn't been happening, and shouldn't happen as a result of what the AAR has been focused on. The Japanese didn't expand as much as they would have otherwise. The Japanese didn't transport the men and supplies committed to the Battle of Sumatra to other forward bases, and those bases did not have those resources for development. Future efforts by the Japanese to transport the resources for developing those bases will most likely be better contested by the Allies. The forces dedicated to the Battle of Sumatra were not used to interfere with Allied base development, and their opportunity to do so has decreased. Thus they will face a stronger Allied enemy from weaker positions when the inevitable Allied offensive operations begin in earnest.

At the conclusion of the Battle of Sumatra, the Japanese may have 10+ divisions and transports available, but they will have to fight their ways to the front. There are no guarantees they will make it in time to successfully counter Allied operations.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

I just wanted to be sure you new in this mod that was not the whole KB out there, and predicated your plans on it. I didn't want you to get bushwhacked. Sounds like you have a plan. I'll go back to watching the show [;)]

P.S.

I hope it's OK I use your name. I saw it from Johns AAR's a long time ago. I'm taking liberties here.

Actually, he prefers "Dan-O" and listens to the old Hawaii Five-O theme song while playing AE and dreaming of belly dancers... [:'(] [:D]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrkrQXuDq24

[poodlebrain]

It's been a while since you've discussed the status of your air forces. They are not being used in the Battle of Sumatra, and you haven't mentioned any ongoing campaigns elsewhere. So it is safe to assume you have been husbanding your forces in preparation for future operations. Can you clue us in on the statuses of your available aircraft types, replacement pools and pilot training efforts? I want to get some appreciation of the size and quality of your air forces in anticipation of Circus.

[witpqs]

The video version!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AepyGm9Me6w

[Lecivius]

I'm a hillbilly. Sometimes it's not polite to call people by their name without being introduced [;)]

Anyways, back to the action!

[Capt. Harlock]

Originally - from D-Day on November 10 through the end of February 1943, the Japanese couldn't invade Sabang due to mines and combat ships.

Any chance of re-seeding the minefields with 4E bombers?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

I'm a hillbilly. Sometimes it's not polite to call people by their name without being introduced [;)]

Anyways, back to the action!

Moved to Arizona a few years ago. The barber I went to for a few years was very nice and gave me some info to help acquaint me with the area. Among it was that, unlike many other places, in Arizona it's considered impolite to ask a persons name if they don't offer it. She explained that it has roots in the old west tradition where many people who had got into a little trouble elsewhere came here for a new start! [:D]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, it's fine to use my name, "Dan." Or you can just call me "Esquire," "Your Honor," or "Your Eminence."

Any of those are fine.

Don't forget "El Supremo." Always has been one of my favorites...

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

I just wanted to be sure you new in this mod that was not the whole KB out there, and predicated your plans on it. I didn't want you to get bushwhacked. Sounds like you have a plan. I'll go back to watching the show [;)]

P.S.

I hope it's OK I use your name. I saw it from Johns AAR's a long time ago. I'm taking liberties here.

Actually, he prefers "Dan-O" and listens to the old Hawaii Five-O theme song while playing AE and dreaming of belly dancers... [:'(] [:D]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrkrQXuDq24

You could do worse in life![:D]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

So while most of the combat action and AAR activity for the past three months has focused almost exlusively on Sumatra, there's been a great deal of work going into the next phase of the war.

It's not only what has been happening elsewhere that is being overlooked. It is also what hasn't happened, hasn't been happening, and shouldn't happen as a result of what the AAR has been focused on. The Japanese didn't expand as much as they would have otherwise. The Japanese didn't transport the men and supplies committed to the Battle of Sumatra to other forward bases, and those bases did not have those resources for development. Future efforts by the Japanese to transport the resources for developing those bases will most likely be better contested by the Allies. The forces dedicated to the Battle of Sumatra were not used to interfere with Allied base development, and their opportunity to do so has decreased. Thus they will face a stronger Allied enemy from weaker positions when the inevitable Allied offensive operations begin in earnest.

At the conclusion of the Battle of Sumatra, the Japanese may have 10+ divisions and transports available, but they will have to fight their ways to the front. There are no guarantees they will make it in time to successfully counter Allied operations.

This is overly optimistic. Playing Japan I can tell you that at no time in 43-44 did I stress about resources, and I have been very active in multiple theatres, probably over-building defenses and infrustructure, and in the longest game made it into mid-45 before I felt the pinch. That was largely due to strat bombing of the HI. That requires that the Allies make good progress toward being in B-29 range of the HI by late 44 at least, and probably also working on other industry in the DEI and China beforehand.

So there are a lot of "ifs" involved in arguing that this has been too much of a strain on the Japanese position during this game. Many very good Japanese players choose not to have an extended Empire so as not to expend resources/fuel/supply and prefer the more constricted historical Japanese positions for a more solid, flexible and mobile defense.

No idea what John III's defenses are like, but I know there is nothing I've seen in the development of this game that would indicate they "should" be weak. In fact in this mod with it's plethora of tough CD guns (enough for nearly every major and many minor targets) and other additions, the Allied movement forward may involve more of a tithe than usually experienced.