Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

[Lokasenna]

Pirates of the Pacific: The Joy of Fletchers - May 15 & 16, 1944

Going back in the month a little bit, I know I alluded to Fletcher raiders deep in Japanese territory - from the Bonins and onwards. I got all the way through the Bonins with all 3 groups and wasn't detected until the second day that they were adjacent to Daito Shoto, searching for convoys. If I had a single Glen I-boat on my side, imagine what I could've done here...

As it is, our boys in the Philippine Sea do contact several convoys and we caught some fish up near Daito Shoto and at Naha as well.

May 15

Night Time Surface Combat, near Daito Shoto at 95,81, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Natisan Maru, Shell hits 1
xAK Imizu Maru, Shell hits 2
xAK Kanko Maru, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Kaiko Maru, Shell hits 2, heavy fires
APD T-1, Shell hits 1, on fire
APD T-2, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Guest
DD Hazelwood

--------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Daito Shoto at 97,81, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Natisan Maru
xAK Imizu Maru
APD T-1, Shell hits 7, heavy fires

Allied Ships
DD Capps
DD Chevalier
DD Kimberly

--------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Naha at 95,66, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
SC Ch 50, Shell hits 6, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Poterfield
DD Tingey

--------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Naha at 95,66, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAKL Columbia Maru, Shell hits 5, on fire
PB Tsuneshima Maru, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
xAKL Nichirin Maru, Shell hits 5, on fire
PB Tsukikawa Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Porterfield
DD Tingey

--------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Naha at 95,66 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 2 damaged
Ki-49-IIb Helen: 1 damaged

41 Coastal gun shots fired in defense

Allied Ships
DD Tingey
DD Porterfield

Japanese ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Manpower hits 1
Fires 70
Runway hits 6

--------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Naha at 95,66, Range 15,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E No. 15, Shell hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Magane Maru, Shell hits 2
xAK Giyu Maru
xAK Hasuna Maru, Shell hits 1
xAK Kyuma Maru, Shell hits 1
xAK La Plata Maru
xAK Minryo Maru, Shell hits 6, on fire
xAK Shozan Maru
xAK Tatsuaki Maru, Shell hits 2

Allied Ships
DD Porterfield
DD Tingey

--------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Iwo-Jima at 100,79, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Natisan Maru, Shell hits 28, and is sunk
xAK Imizu Maru, Shell hits 34, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Guest
DD Hazelwood

Really wish my bombardment TF had run into that xAK TF before bombarding.


May 16

Day Time Surface Combat, near Iwo-jima at 102,81, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CMc Kurokami, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
PB Sinko Maru, Shell hits 22, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Anzan Maru, Shell hits 33, and is sunk
xAK Hoeisan Maru, Shell hits 21, and is sunk
xAK Tamaki Maru, Shell hits 27, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Capps
DD Chevalier
DD Kimberly

Also down at Boela, we sink AMC Bankok Maru, 1 "Super E", and 2-5 xAKs. All with Fletchers.

[Lokasenna]

Score - May 31, 1944

Allied VPs: +4365
Japan VPs: +534
Ratio: 1.136:1 against, a change of +.095

A bit slower in the air, but still over a 2:1 in our favor during this period.

PPs going back up.

[JocMeister]

Nice to see you updating again!

I´ll try to catch up tomorrow! [&o]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
He really throws everything at the front lines.

Very interesting.[X(]

[Lokasenna]

Japanese Industry

What's this, Japanese industry being covered in an Allies AAR?! Yup. A little while back, during a gap in turns, I was curious about something. I should have started taking advantage of the implications of his MechaGroups and propensity for rebuilding dead LCUs much sooner. Mostly I didn't out of risk aversion (care for my bomber pools), but also out of laziness when doing the turns. The cat and mouse game with unescorted bomber strikes on potentially CAPped bases is tedious. But each time he upgrades a group or takes replacement planes (in the dozens...) it costs him a chunk of supply, and then there's the rebuilding... A strategic goal of mine is to run him out of supply and fuel in 1945 by taking advantage of his tendency to sail his capital ships hither and thither to respond to everything he can reach, and all of the supply he expends in air/ground operations (for example on Timor).

In any case, I went through every single base Japan controlled with industry and added it to a spreadsheet. At first I was just doing this for aircraft and engine factories because I was curious about his production numbers, and I know this knowledge is not perfect as if he expands a factory, I won't see that happen on the map for a while.

Numbers here are current as of June 10, 1944. At this point, I figure we might have 500 days left of the war, which takes the date up to about 1946. So each point of HI is worth 1000 supplies, and each point of LI is worth 500. I've bombed out about 200 points of HI and maybe 100-200 points of LI in China in the past few months. I filtered the spreadsheet by region. Yellow highlights are current or recent targets - places I need to check up on to see if the numbers have changed. Now that I have Port Blair and Rangoon, I am working on trasnferring Liberator recon planes up here, which will also help with getting hits.

You can see that I added up his total ARM/VEH factories as well. Obviously, I can't know if they (or aircraft/engine factories) are turned on or not, or which of his aircraft factories are R&D and therefore not currently costing him HI, but it does give me an idea of what his total potential production is. At this point his engines should all be in production, so assuming none are turned off (probably not turned off, to meet that potential 3800 planes per month) then engines alone are costing him 1842.6 HI per day. If he's able to keep all those refineries fed, his Fuel deficit per day is still somewhere around north of 10K/day, plus fleet costs [X(]. Basically, there's a lot of inferences that can be drawn from this information.

Of note, he expanded the Hong Kong HI to 100 and I think expanded the LI a bit as well.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
He really throws everything at the front lines.

Very interesting.[X(]

It works OK for him, but I'm not sure if he has taken the industrial cost of this into account. I say that it works OK for him, or at least it appears to in the present, because he is able to stall me out in some cases. Sometimes it's because I didn't bring enough to capture a base (Saumlaki). Other times, it's because I brought enough to eventually capture a base, but he reinforces such that I need to bring yet more (Kusaie, and to an extent Lautem - my initial landing here was not too far off from enough). Yes, this stalls me, but it costs him in terms of fuel to get them there, supply to fly the planes, and supply to feed his troops in combat instead of at rest. There's also the opportunity cost of pilot training: so far as I can tell, he has almost every unit that can be bought out on the front lines, and very few doing training or rear area protection. That's the only way I can account for the sheer numbers of planes I face in every theater. I compare to my game, which is scenario 2 and therefore I think even more friendly to me in terms of planes, and the numbers I'm facing off against are inconceivable for me to put in place without sacrificing a lot of training.

If he runs out of supply, and I find out about it, it's all going to come tumbling down around his ears rather quickly. At least that's my wishful thinking on the matter. So long as I'm careful about force attrition on my side, I think I'll be alright.

I'm already thinking that he might be running low on Timor. He hasn't intentionally bombarded in a while, and he might be running low at Boela - he was either trying to pick up troops, get Resources out, or drop off supply recently and I sank or tried to sink the ships doing so. Now that I'm able to bomb these airfields pretty much daily, it's at least heading in that direction. I know from defending against Bullwinkle that air raids can destroy a frightening amount of supply rather quickly sometimes [;)].

[zuluhour]

Reading along with witpqs we should be able to tell how and when supply becomes an issue for Japan. He has his opponent in an ever tightening choke hold.
So far I have not seen any apparent effect.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Reading along with witpqs we should be able to tell how and when supply becomes an issue for Japan. He has his opponent in an ever tightening choke hold.
So far I have not seen any apparent effect.

But is his opponent using size 81 groups, which sometimes get decimated and need to be rebuilt? Doing so should burn a lot of supply. We'll see... I'm just going to keep hammering away at the Chinese bases I don't see myself needing supplies at if I retake them (that's all but about 2), especially while I wait for ships and men to get into place.

[JocMeister]

Not sure you have the troops to spare but I always try to have some troops prepped in reserve in case the Japanese do what they did at Kusaie. Its a good way to kill Japanese troops and makes the Japanese player wary of reinforcing in the future.

On critical landings I always try and have a full Corps in reserve.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Reading along with witpqs we should be able to tell how and when supply becomes an issue for Japan. He has his opponent in an ever tightening choke hold.
So far I have not seen any apparent effect.

But is his opponent using size 81 groups, which sometimes get decimated and need to be rebuilt? Doing so should burn a lot of supply. We'll see... I'm just going to keep hammering away at the Chinese bases I don't see myself needing supplies at if I retake them (that's all but about 2), especially while I wait for ships and men to get into place.

I don't think so, unless some exist naturally. We had an email discussion recently (just off-hand, not sparked by anything) and he mentioned that the max-out re-sizing of groups is something he doesn't like to do.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Not sure you have the troops to spare but I always try to have some troops prepped in reserve in case the Japanese do what they did at Kusaie. Its a good way to kill Japanese troops and makes the Japanese player wary of reinforcing in the future.

On critical landings I always try and have a full Corps in reserve.

I have another (green / 50 XP) division at Pearl, the one that got stomped at Wake for whatever reason. It's almost re-prepped for Kusaie. By the time my APAs make it back to Pearl from going to CONUS for more troops, it should be ready.

I actually did have some tanks prepped that I didn't land initially. I've been using them to help reduce forts and cause casualties, but because he brought in more troops I haven't been able to get the odds I need to take the base. I've lost a few ships to Helen kamikazes out of Ponape, but since I get a VP for each kamikaze, it's actually been a good trade for me. Last turn an SC was sunk and a TK damaged (empty, in a convoy that I forgot to set to Return Same Route). Am looking at this as an opportunity to get that Div some XP, which will be important later.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Reading along with witpqs we should be able to tell how and when supply becomes an issue for Japan. He has his opponent in an ever tightening choke hold.
So far I have not seen any apparent effect.

But is his opponent using size 81 groups, which sometimes get decimated and need to be rebuilt? Doing so should burn a lot of supply. We'll see... I'm just going to keep hammering away at the Chinese bases I don't see myself needing supplies at if I retake them (that's all but about 2), especially while I wait for ships and men to get into place.

I don't think so, unless some exist naturally. We had an email discussion recently (just off-hand, not sparked by anything) and he mentioned that the max-out re-sizing of groups is something he doesn't like to do.

None. Some groups will get into the upper 40s (45, 49, etc.), and I think maybe in 1945 will resize to 51 or 52? That's it, though.

[Lokasenna]

Game date is up through July 14 now. I'm going to do 4 updates per month, but starting with one in Burma prior to those as things are developing quickly there.

Burma - June 3, 1944
The beginnings of an opportunity here... I am now keeping permanent recon on the Rahaeng triangle, Chiang Mai, and Moulmein. Regular recon on Bangkok and sporadic on deeper targets. Such as the heart of Thailand - Udon Thani, Nakhon, and Ubon are all minimally defended. The price of sending everything to the front, and so much to the Pacific to stop my landings, is that he may not be able to build forts in time to stall me in Asia.

[Lokasenna]

We'll start in Burma with the regular maps again.

Burma - June 8, 1944
Almost done with Blair and Andaman.

Ground bombing of Pisanuloke on May 31 reveals that forts are probably low, as one raid caused 184 casualties (amongst engineer/base forces only).

It's the 1st RTA at Udon Thani. They have few or no organic engineers, and only 1 unit reported there, so forts aren't currently being built.

We sweep Bangkok some, with P-47s, and win but at cost. Mostly, we sweep outside Pegu and Chiang Mai, making sure the skies are clear for our 2Es, FBs, and occasional 4Es bombing the troops, but we still lose some bombers periodically. At a rate higher than I would prefer. To the NE of Chiang Mai, the 21st IJA Division tried a shock attack on June 5 and failed miserably - over 3000 IJA casualties against less than 100 Chinese. Supply, disruption, and fatigue penalties. Bombing works.

Not quite shown here, bombing of industry in China continues.

[Lokasenna]

CENTPAC - June 8, 1944

Despite IJ naval search being minimal here, sometimes there are Helens on kamikaze runs from Ponape... a few ships are lost, but it takes him more kamikazes than he gains in VPs. Eventually I route ships farther south from Kusaie.

Screenshot shows that I'm finally running proper base forces and supply to Ailinglaplap. The CVEs are present because Roi-Namur and Kwajalein may still have enough supply to launch some air strikes.

[Lokasenna]

Banda Sea / New Guinea - June 8, 1944

Most of the time on my turns remains in this area. KB is left in the area for quite some time. Unsure if he is revealing them on purpose, hoping that I will bring my fleet CVs back out somewhere (although if I had them concentrated, with CVEs, I think I could beat KB... but I need them for something else)... or maybe keeping them as a deterrent against me moving faster? Another thought is that he is preparing for an evacuation of some bases between Timor and Manado. I think he has pulled some troops from Boela, maybe, although that would not really explain the AKs that I recently sunk there either empty or with supplies on board - it would run counter to the implications of their presence, actually (that he needs supplies in order to defend). If KB is remaining revealed to act as a deterrent to an invasion of Sansapor and Sorong, then it is working to an extent but my troops are not ready yet anyway. Besides that, I can be patient here.

All or almost all of his paratroop units remain committed at Manokwari. He hasn't tried to lift them out. I don't have an airfield there to be bombed, which also means I don't have any ability to run CAP to intercept transports.

Per SIGINT, he's building up Endeh, and I failed to intercept troops before they landed. I've been mining the port, and bombing it as able, but I just don't have the bombers available to do it unless I want to run my B-24J pools ragged.

I wish I had more LSTs available to send here to land oodles of supply at all of the places I need it to run more CAP.



Oh yeah, and we land ~1000 AV at Biak via landing craft and just a few bigger amphibs on June 7. Enough to take the place within a week against just 292 AV of defenders.

[Lokasenna]

I'll do the score screen just twice a month.

Banda / New Guinea - June 16, 1944

I'd like to move on from Kaimana and Kai-eilanden to Boela (and Babo?) and Ambon, but I don't have many troops prepped. I have more prepped or prepping for Sansapor and Sorong. I may have enough prepped for Ambon to take it, particularly if I transfer 2Es to Saumlaki/Taberfane/etc.

I landed about 400 more AV at Lautem via LCT, and supplies continue coming in by sub.

Fighters, and periodically bombers (Jills and Lily DBs), are based at Sorong/Waigeo/Sansapor. He is now building up Morotai. I approve of his expenditure of fuel/supplies to do this over and over.

[Lokasenna]

Burma - June 16, 1944

Now that things are in motion, they are actually moving somewhat slowly... moving off the paths takes a while [:)]. We're almost into Chiang Mai. Note his movement dots:

SE from Chiang Mai
W from Rahaeng
W from Uttaradit

Presumably, the 21st Division is moving out of Chiang Mai while reinforcements from Bangkok are moving west from the rail lines. Still no movement away from Moulmein. I don't think he is running any recon on my troops, or else if he is he is not yet aware of the danger.

[Lokasenna]

Score - June 16, 1944

Allied VPs: +1511
Japan VPs: +350
Ratio: 1.111 against, a change of +.025

Still need to build out Rangoon. The biggest piece of the difference in my score is from his aircraft losses (more than 700). Another 500 from his LCUs.

[Lokasenna]

Burma - June 23, 1944

At first I was just moving to the E of Moulmein to avoid the shock attack across the river while I sent half of my forces towards Chiang Mai. I'm comfortable being patient, but he's left an opening here... I doubt I can cut off any of his stuff, but I'll settle for wrecking the defenders of Chiang Mai and Rahaeng. Once I cross into the hex outside of Rahaeng, all of his stuff at Moulmein will be forced to walk down the coast or else risk being destroyed. Pics coming in following posts with the units involved. It's notable that all 3 IJA tank divisions are either at Moulmein or Chiang Mai. Destroying tanks makes me happy because more than half of my forces here are Chinese, with most of the British/Indian/Australian forces that come for this theater set up for elsewhere.