The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Can't build fortifications at Langsa or Sabang. The ports and airfields are trashed after nonstop bombings and bombardments for two months.

[Lecivius]

Yeah, should have thought of that [:(] Just thinkin on this while testing client equipment.

[catwhoorg]

I'm perched on the edge of my seat.

its getting to be crunch time.

[poodlebrain]

I can effectively feint and draw John here while actually moving to reinforce Sumatra in great strength.

I notice you said reinforce Sumatra, and not reinforce Sabang. Do you have another target on Sumatra in mind? Maybe one that threatens Palembang. It would be about the last place your opponent would expect. So the likelihood of those Just In Time reinforcements is pretty low at Benkolen or Oosthaven.

[Canoerebel]

If I return to Sumatra it won't be for defensive purposes. I'll be bringing something like seven divisions and a ton of supply. It'll mean the airfields are up and running again.

Sumatra has not been my first choice only because John is obviously focusing there. But if he should shift for some reason, then Sumatra becomes very attraction.

Early in this campaign, some good players thought it was a mistake to not land closer to Palembang or to not focus on Malaya. In hindsight, though, focusing on northern Sumatra was the right choice. I knew it instinctively. I wish I'd known why my instincts were saying that. Having Ceylon and Colombo and Ramree Island so close by made all the difference in the worlds for shuttling aircraft, supplies and ships to and fro. Huge, huge advantage, especially since it was only 1942 so that the Allies didn't have the ability to "colonize the moon," so to speak. In 1944 or 1945, the Allies are so powerful they can go anywhere an establish a colony that is pretty much self sufficient. Not so in 1942 and perhaps well into '43.

If I get an opening to turn Circus towards Sumatra, I'll do so with relish. And, yes, Padang and Sibolga and points south would be prime candidates.

[Canoerebel]

4/14/43

Battle of Sumatra: Everything in the world points to an imminent invasion of Sabang, but yet another relatively uneventful turn. For reasons every reader knows by now, each day without an invasion or other catastrophe is a small victory for the Allies.

Four CAs hit Sabang to little effect. Two BBs hit Langsa to even less effect (even the Kongos do little damage to troops in jungle terrain behind three forts). Strike aircraft focus on Langsa and 1st Marine Division. I'm somewhat surprised John doesn't order his three divisions to attack the marines. He has something like 1300 AV against 350 (with jungle-rough terrain). But he might see the movement dot and figure if I'm leaving the hex, he'll be glad to get it without messing up his units. I'm pulling back to improve the supply and also in hopes some progress might encourage John - that if he has the slightest doubts about the necessity or wisdom of amphibious assault then this might help him elect the option that I deem most favorable. I am persuaded now that any land-only campaign will not be decisive before Circus gets underway. Only by successful amphibious assault can John wrap this up in time (bearing in mind that he's not aware of my privately created timetables and deadlines).

No sign of KB. That's something I lament.

Operation Circus: Critical mass may be reached as soon as 30 days - meaning, at that point the Allies may have the minimum number of troops, ships and carriers necessary to move if John (meaning, KB and enemy troops) remain committed to Sumatra. In the event he shifts troops to the Circus target area (no SigInt of concern today, by the way), then the day of embarkation to move on Sumatra would be the same. The key is the carriers really. They're at sea and will take position where they can go either way, reacting quickly as circumstances dictate. I'm still accumulating PPs - now have something like 4,600. That's enough to buy all four Australian divisions. But I won't make the purchase until everything is actually a go and the troops need to load aboard ships. As for Peanuts 1 through 3, all left Bombay weeks ago. One has since departed Capetown. The other two will reach there in three days. I couldn't chance the map edge journey to Oz due to threat of the KB (a decision that was affirmed when KB indeed showed up at Diego Garcia a few weeks ago). Peanut 4 will reach Bombay tomorrow. Ships are waiting. She won't reach Oz in time to participate in Circus, but she will be available if there is a shift to Sumatra.

[JocMeister]

Make sure your Australian units are upgraded from Milita squads to AIF squads!

[Canoerebel]

4/15/43

Battle of Sumatra: No invasion today nor any sign that something's imminent. No bombardments today (a rarity in the past month). Bombings focus on the same three targets: Langsa, 1st Marines and 18th UK.

On the west side, John has pulled one of his three divisions back - a surprise to me. Two divisions isn't enough to successfully prosecute a campaign on the west side. He may be satisfied with just tying down 1st Marines.

On the east side, I pulled back one division to Langsa, leaving two in the contested hex. John has three divisions there but can rapidly reinforce from Medan if he wishes to do so. My two divisions would be in trouble against, say, six enemy divisions. But, again, an overland campaign is the least timely for John, so I'm reconfiguring a bit to boost Sabang against amphibious attack.

KB showed up west of Cocos Island and sank an xAK that was serving as a buffer (picket) for other transports carrying elements of two arty units to Diego (the main part of both units have been there since prior to D-Day).

SigInt reported a day or two ago that both Musashi and Hiyo are not sunk. I knew the former wasn't. I thought the latter might be. Drat.

Battle of Burma: John has at least three divisions there (12th, 18th, 33rd). The first and the last of those are working around Lashio, roughing up some Chinese units. John has reasons for this activity, but going forward it suits me to have those divisions occupied in the hinterlands of Burma.

Operation Circus: John sent this in his email today: "With all those troops available from your pull out of Burma, I am working to figure where you will come from now. Been quite the exercise in thought and LOTS of movement accordingly. Sure bet your Intel has been lighting up over the couple of game weeks!" SigInt is quiet today.

[poodlebrain]

Operation Circus: John sent this in his email today: "With all those troops available from your pull out of Burma, I am working to figure where you will come from now. Been quite the exercise in thought and LOTS of movement accordingly. Sure bet your Intel has been lighting up over the couple of game weeks!" SigInt is quiet today.

Your opponent may be moving lots of units, but what size units is he moving? Are they adequate to defend against the force you will employ in Circus? Have his movements been in time to adequately shore up his defenses?

[catwhoorg]

The other thought that occured to me, how are the Aussie infantry pools looking ?

I know they can be fairly shallow in the main game (Not sure about this mod), which could limit the long term success of a mainly Aussie based circus operation

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Operation Circus: John sent this in his email today: "With all those troops available from your pull out of Burma, I am working to figure where you will come from now. Been quite the exercise in thought and LOTS of movement accordingly. Sure bet your Intel has been lighting up over the couple of game weeks!" SigInt is quiet today.

Your opponent may be moving lots of units, but what size units is he moving? Are they adequate to defend against the force you will employ in Circus? Have his movements been in time to adequately shore up his defenses?

No, the quantity of the units isn't a concern yet and may not become one. The Allies will be moving in such concentrated strength that it would be hard for John to garrison adequately.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg
The other thought that occured to me, how are the Aussie infantry pools looking ?

I know they can be fairly shallow in the main game (Not sure about this mod), which could limit the long term success of a mainly Aussie based circus operation

I'll check this next time I open the game. 6th and 7th Aussie Divisions were involved in heavy combat in Burma and suffered some losses, but nothing major. I think the pools should be in good shape.

[Canoerebel]

4/16/43

Battle of Sumatra: No enemy amphibious operations today. Four Sisters and the Kongos hit Sabang this turn, with Ise and Nagato hitting Langsa. Bombers continue to focus on Langsa and the divisions on the west side. With one Allied division withdrawing on the east side, John may like to take a whack there. Movement dots suggest more units are inbound. There is some exposure here - two divisions might end up facing six or so - but this is another part of the dance between us as I hope John elects to pursue a ground campaign rather than amphibious work.

What is John thinking here? Does he assume the Allies are hurting for supply? Does he assume Sabang and Langsa are too strongly held to invade? Or is he drawing opposite conclusions. I really don't know.

Operation Circus: More email comments and enemy activity show an increased interest in the potential Circus area of operations. In a way, I'd love to see John shift his focus over here so that I can cross him up and reinforce Sumatra instead. But when I look at the map and try to see things from his perspective, I assume his biggest concern is a major Allied operation from Ceylon to Sumatra. He has the island airfields to help now, but I don't think he'll be comfortable relying solely on those.

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg

I'm perched on the edge of my seat.

its getting to be crunch time.

I am too.

[Canoerebel]

4/17/43

Battle of Sumatra: No invasion. No bombardments. No bombings. Very strange way to run a way, if you ask me.

On the west side, the two IJ divisions attack 1st Marines and company, suffering a repulse. The Japs lost 20+ squads destroyed and 200+ disabled. The little Allied stack wasn't touched. 1st Marines will pull out of the hex tomorrow, so day after tomorrow John will attack there and push back the picket RCT and tank battalion. The hope here is that pulling back two hexes (to the next jungle-rough terrain) will lock in supply for my stack while giving John a bit of hope. The odds that he'll prefer an overland campaign to an amphibious assault seemed impossible a week back, when I was as positive as I could be that an amphibious assault was going to happen and immediately, but who knows.

Supply is a bit under 150k now, meaning the Allies are at half what they were when the embargo began around February 15. I think supply is sufficient for at least six weeks, maybe two months, at this rate. That's plenty to get us to the new phase where John shouldn't have the luxury of focusing on just one theater.

No sign of KB today.

Operation Circus: No alarming SigInt today, but little signs that John is giving this theater more attention. Fenton (Oz) airfield just went to level one. An IJN sub sank a supply xAK at Pago Pago. That's noteworthy in that there had been a total absence of sub activity in this region since the invasion of Sumatra.

Speaking of which, we're now at D+158. That's hard to imagine.

[richlove]

If John lurches his assets away to focus on the threat of Circus, are you prepared to rush reinforcements and supply into Sumatra?

[Lecivius]

I have to admit, I thought he would have come ashore already (over the weekend). I can't imagine him doing a land campaign, or ceding Sabang.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: richlove
If John lurches his assets away to focus on the threat of Circus, are you prepared to rush reinforcements and supply into Sumatra?

Yes, I've described this recently and at some length.

John may well begin shifting major assets to the Circus area if he suspects something is up. In that event, he probably will position the KB where it can go either way. Soerabaja and Darwin are possibilities. The KB will be the key. I only need one or two days free of KB to insert combat ships (thus preventing enemy bombardments) and fighters (to protect the ships). Once Sabang is fully functional again, the campaign is all but decided. The Allies would reinsert the AKE and AE that had the port replenishing even BBs. Then it's a matter of BBs hitting one or two fo the Nocobars to shut them down, invading and taking those islands, and gradually working from there.

It won't be hard to get a window if I catch John leaning towards Circus...assuming I have my assets properly positioned to react before he can.

So, the position of the KB is key. And the position of the Allied carriers is key. At some point we both have to make a call. (But I won't for awhile yet since Circus is about four weeks from going.)

[poodlebrain]

How much repair of your airfields are you able to do during these hiatuses in bombardments?

[Canoerebel]

I'm not bothering to repair right now due to the frequency of the bombardments. It's just a waste of supply. But I did repairs early on and learned that I have so many engineers present that the airfield can handle fighters usually one to two turns after a bombardment. Usually substantial repairs are complete after about four days. After that the field is basically fully operational.