Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Reinforcing Hawaii just means more mouths to feed in a location that is completely dependent on imported supplies and/or resources. Hawaii will also require fuel for ASW operations to keep the sea lanes open to bring in the supplies/resources. How are the Japanese going to get all of those troops out of Hawaii if Hawaii gets bypassed?

Hawaii makes a little supply. Hilo has the Resources.

Resources must be transported from Hilo to Pearl Harbor with supplies making the reverse journey. The shipping between Hilo and Pearl requires fuel and supplies for protection from SS. Hawaii is not self-sufficient. The occupation is a drain on the Japanese economy. The only issue is whether the cost to the economy is worth the benefits to the war effort. Excessive reinforcements for defensive requirements puts more strain on the economy for zero benefit to the war effort.

I do not think the opponent is making such an obvious mistake. Thus, he must have a purpose for transporting all those excessive units to Hawaii, not reinforcing or developing the North Pacific, and halting his advance in the South Pacific. Given his past attempts to garner VP from an otherwise pointless strategic bombing campaign on the West Coast, I think it is safe to conclude he is trying to achieve an automatic victory. Since this is a game that I think he wants to win in dramatic fashion, having taken over after Hawaii was captured, winning by automatic victory with a successful invasion of an essential West Coast base is his plan.

The only thing indicating otherwise has been his commitment to India. He has harvested all of the VP he is likely to accumulate with offensive actions, and he is not showing an inclination to retreat to more defensible terrain. The Allies should be more than happy to exchange casualties on a one to one basis even though it results in a two to one VP benefit to the Japanese. That is only half of the four to one ratio the Japanese need for the automatic victory. So the purpose of his Indian adventure is a little confusing.

[HansBolter]

The fuel requirement for a couple of xAKLs on a CS setting between Pearl and Hilo is minimal.

The threat of subs is minimal as well as the entire route is through shallow waters that can be heavily over watched by ASW air assets.

The organic supply generation of the islands may not be sufficient for the entire garrison, but does reduce the load for bringing in supply form an external source.

[Xilana]

duplicate

[Xilana]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain



I do not think the opponent is making such an obvious mistake. Thus, he must have a purpose for transporting all those excessive units to Hawaii, not reinforcing or developing the North Pacific, and halting his advance in the South Pacific. Given his past attempts to garner VP from an otherwise pointless strategic bombing campaign on the West Coast, I think it is safe to conclude he is trying to achieve an automatic victory. Since this is a game that I think he wants to win in dramatic fashion, having taken over after Hawaii was captured, winning by automatic victory with a successful invasion of an essential West Coast base is his plan.

Interesting thoughts. Could a West Coast invasion result in AV at this point? How about other benefits such as the destruction of shipping in progress?

Other thoughts... India, you have a lot of resources out that way, which are far, far away from the US. I think other games have proven that this area is relatively safe by mid-1943. India and Australian invasions have essentially been performed to buy time for the DEI. Reinforcing Hawaii makes no sense in this game engine as the Centpac (island-hopping) offensive and strategic bombing of the HI doesn't work. Burma is not the Empire's soft underbelly at this stage of the war. The strategic initiative will be going over to the Allies soon, so how is he reinforcing the approaches to the DEI and New Guinea. If the DEI as well as the Norpac are not being reinforced, I think you have to consider some sort of knockout blow coming your way as he's going to fold fast from lack of perimeter development if those preparations have not happened.

[tiemanjw]

... as the Centpac (island-hopping) offensive and strategic bombing of the HI doesn't work.

I would disagree with this statement - Lowpie probably would too.
I'm not saying you can't bypass Pearl (though having it sure helps), or that the enemy doesn't have a vote, but a CENTPAC campaign is the fastest route to Japan.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

The fuel requirement for a couple of xAKLs on a CS setting between Pearl and Hilo is minimal.

The threat of subs is minimal as well as the entire route is through shallow waters that can be heavily over watched by ASW air assets.

The organic supply generation of the islands may not be sufficient for the entire garrison, but does reduce the load for bringing in supply form an external source.

The fuel requirements for the transports and ASW TFs are minimal, but they have to be brought to Hawaii. Don't the air assets conducting ASW missions require supplies? How many assets are you going to dedicate to the Hilo - Pearl convoy route? From a cost benefit perspective the Japanese might be better served just using the resources from Pearl Harbor and produce supply intermittently. So you are effectively producing 160 supply every 3 days, or 53-1/3 supply per day. That equates to saving the Japanese less than 1 cargo ship per convoy sent from the Home Islands with each resupply mission.

Maintaining a constant Hilo - Pearl convoy for resources will net an additional 26.7 supply produced per day. That does not reduce the shipping required from the Home Islands enough to justify the effort in my opinion. If I were the Japanese I'd just stockpile the resources at Hilo, and transport them to Pearl on the return journey of the ship I use to transport supplies to Hilo. I would be satisfied with the additional cargo capacity of the cargo ship divided by 400 days of production at 26.7 supply produced per day.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: venividivici10044a

You've previously stated that PH has not affected your convoy routing bu much time. You state above that you have no plans on going Centpac and don't need PH for Sopac. You mention his Alaskan holdings are not well defended. So is it your conclusion that he's defending against an Allied run against Centpac and leaving the door open for a run at Norpac?

What are your thoughts as to the value of PH for Japan prior to it becomming a problem in 1944?

My best guess at this point is that he is reinforcing PH and already have or will reinforce Alaska in the near future.

My personal feeling about PH is that there are a lot better targets. The troops and resources needed for it is much better used elsewhere. Not even from a VP perspective does it make sense to take it. Looking at the VPs Japan didn´t gain more then it lost if you exclude the base VPs which arn´t permanent.

I´m still getting trickles of VPs this late from ships being confirmed sunk in the landings. [:D]

[JocMeister]

Good discussion guys. [:)]

Wish I could participate more but its my birthday tomorrow and I have a crapload of stuff to prepare tonight. I hope I´ll get some spare time on Friday to answer more question. Particularly about a possible WC invasion.

I probably won´t be able to update the AAR until Friday or Saturday but I hope I can keep the turns flowing.

[Canoerebel]

How's the Great Campaign Against Tobacco going, Jocke? I hope you kicked its butt, giving you yet another reason to celebrate your birthday.

[CaptBeefheart]

As long as he hasn't given up on fine booze.

Cheers,
CC

[poodlebrain]

Happy Birthday. I won't waste a birthday wish on anything as mundane as success in this game. Instead my wish for you is for you to get more joy out of life than you would sinking the KB in the coming year.

[obvert]

Grattis på födelsedagen!!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

How's the Great Campaign Against Tobacco going, Jocke? I hope you kicked its butt, giving you yet another reason to celebrate your birthday.

Thanks for asking! I´m actually doing great. [:)] Still get the urge a couple of times per day but nothing I can´t handle and it usually passes after a couple of seconds!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Happy Birthday. I won't waste a birthday wish on anything as mundane as success in this game. Instead my wish for you is for you to get more joy out of life than you would sinking the KB in the coming year.

Thanks! I would happily take a sunk KB as a B-day present though! [:D]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Grattis på födelsedagen!!

OMG! I´m impressed! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]India 13th September -42[/font]
_____________________________________________________________________________

A very good day here as my armored spearhead opens up a retreat path for the battered Ledo defenders. [&o] A small force of Armor and TDs enters the adjacent hex. I really hope they retreats towards my troops rather then to some odd location. Behind the spearhead the center force with the 1st Marines follow.

At Dacca my troops are biding their time. I´m just waiting for the Northern force to catch up. Once they do I´ll divide the Japanese and defeat them piecemeal.

Given the 6th Guards division are now heading towards PH I think Jeff has given up on India. This ID was mauled at Asansol 2 months ago.

[JocMeister]

NORPAC/WC Update coming tomorrow with an update on Allied forces + my thoughts on a possible Japanese invasion. Have to finish the turn and send it to Jeff. After that I´m going to have a beer (or two!) and watch last two episodes of Walking Dead!

Tonights drinking:
http://sigtunabrygghus.se/our-beer/sigtuna-organic-ale/

A local brewery around 40kms from where I live! Its a pretty decent ale. A bit too watery for my taste though. [:)]

Tonights music (to get the right mood for Walking Dead):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joSPPrR1l34

[Wuffer]

full KB sunk?

na, maybe the escape of the former Ledo defenders should be enough for now.
That will become an interesting 'meeting engangement' - seriously, is there something like an automatic attack modeled, when marching forces met each other?
Back to silence, as I follow both sides.
Excellent read btw, as usual, I might add.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

full KB sunk?

na, maybe the escape of the former Ledo defenders should be enough for now.
That will become an interesting 'meeting engangement' - seriously, is there something like an automatic attack modeled, when marching forces met each other?
Back to silence, as I follow both sides.
Excellent read btw, as usual, I might add.

Full KB would make me quite happy! [;)] Should know next turn if the Ledo defenders retreated in the right direction. They really deserve it!

Nothing modeled in the game for a meeting engagement sadly. [:(]

[Rio Bravo]

Joc-

It does appear that you have the Japanese heading out of Dodge in India.

Will you pursue them into Burma?

Best Regards,

-Terry

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]WC[/font]
_____________________________________________________________________________

More from SIGINT...

11th RF Gun Battalion is loaded on xAK Nitian Maru moving to Pearl Harbor.
5th Air Division is loaded on xAP Teikyo Maru moving to Lahaina.

Personally I´m still strongly inclined to believe this is an effort to garrison and defend what he has taken in CENTPAC/ALASKA. Why? Because attacking the WC at this stage and situation makes no sense. I know someone advocated this a while back as a great way to tip the balance into a Japanese AV (if the AV was reasonably close). Can´t remember who it was but that person didn´t make his homework.

The WC is not weak by any means. And certainly not in a situation like this there the allied player has been given a year to prepare. This is a quick and dirty rundown of Allied forces currently on the WC.

------------------------
Troops on the West Coast
------------------------
10 Full US IDs
1 Armored ID
1 USMC Division
11 Regiments.
1 USMC Regiment
4 Tank Battalions

------------------------
Reinforcements (Coming month)
------------------------
2 Armored ID (30 days)
1 ID (20 days)

------------------------
Emergency reinforcements
------------------------
II USA Armored Corps arrives at San Luis Obispo
II USA Corps arrives at Salt Lake City
2nd Armored Division arrives at Salt Lake City
4th Motorized Division arrives at Salt Lake City
8th Motorized Division arrives at Salt Lake City
36th Infantry Division arrives at Salt Lake City
Provisional Tank Brigade arrives at Mojave
2nd Army Tank Brigade arrives at Canada
Invasion Mobilstn Supply Convoy arrives at Salt Lake City

------------------------
Total (in case of invasion)
------------------------
12 US Divisions
4 Armored divisions
1 USMC Division
2 Motorized divisions
11 Regiments
4 Tank Battalions
2 Tank Brigades.

Oh...and one more thing...

------------------------
Air reinforcements
------------------------
VMD-1 arrives at San Diego
VMD-2 arrives at San Diego
VMF-123 arrives at San Diego
VMF-124 arrives at San Diego
VMSB-143 arrives at San Diego
VMSB-144 arrives at San Diego
VMO-151 arrives at Eastern USA
VMF-213 arrives at Pearl Harbor
VMF-214 arrives at Pearl Harbor
VMF-223 arrives at Pearl Harbor
VMF-224 arrives at Pearl Harbor
VMSB-233 arrives at Pearl Harbor
VMSB-234 arrives at Pearl Harbor
VMSB-242 arrives at Santa Barbara
VMSB-243 arrives at Santa Barbara
VMSB-244 arrives at San Diego
VP-61 arrives at Alameda
VP-62 arrives at Alameda
VS-6D14 arrives at Alameda
ZP-32 arrives at Alameda
No.118 Sqn RCAF arrives at Canada
No.132 Sqn RCAF arrives at Canada
No.133 Sqn RCAF arrives at Nelson
No.135 Sqn RCAF arrives at Canada
No.147 Sqn RCAF arrives at Vancouver
9th PS arrives at Spokane
71st OG/17th OS arrives at San Francisco
7th BG/9th BS arrives at San Francisco
7th BG/11th BS arrives at Aden
7th BG/22nd BS arrives at San Francisco
43rd BG/63rd BS arrives at Eastern USA
43rd BG/64th BS arrives at Eastern USA
43rd BG/65th BS arrives at Eastern USA
38th BG/69th BS arrives at Eastern USA
38th BG/70th BS arrives at Eastern USA
38th BG/71st BS arrives at Eastern USA
90th BG/319th BS arrives at Eastern USA
90th BG/320th BS arrives at Eastern USA
90th BG/321st BS arrives at Eastern USA
307th BG/370th BS arrives at Spokane
307th BG/371st BS arrives at Spokane
307th BG/372nd BS arrives at Spokane
308th BG/373rd BS arrives at Boise
308th BG/374th BS arrives at Boise
308th BG/375th BS arrives at Boise
90th BG/400th BS arrives at Eastern USA
43rd BG/403rd BS arrives at Eastern USA
28th CG/404th BS arrives at Eastern USA
38th BG/405th BS arrives at Eastern USA
307th BG/35th RS arrives at Spokane
308th BG/36th RS arrives at Boise
341st BG/490th BS arrives at Aden
341st BG/491st BS arrives at Karachi
301st BG/32nd BS arrives at Mojave
301st BG/352nd BS arrives at Mojave
301st BG/353rd BS arrives at Mojave
301st BG/419th BS arrives at Mojave
301st BG/BS (Comp) arrives at Mojave
303rd BG/358th BS arrives at Mojave
303rd BG/359th BS arrives at Mojave
303rd BG/360th BS arrives at Mojave
303rd BG/427th BS arrives at Mojave
303rd BG/BS (Comp) arrives at Mojave
7th BG/9th BS Det arrives at San Francisco
7th BG/88th RS Det arrives at San Francisco
23rd FG/74th FS arrives at Aden
23rd FG/75th FS arrives at Aden
23rd FG/76th FS arrives at Aden
328th FG/326th FS arrives at San Francisco
328th FG/327th FS arrives at San Francisco
328th FG/329th FS arrives at San Francisco
329th FG/330th FS arrives at San Francisco
329th FG/331st FS arrives at San Francisco
18th FG/333rd FS arrives at Pearl Harbor
55th FG/338th FS arrives at Portland
329th FG/332nd FS arrives at San Francisco
374th TCG/6th TCS arrives at Eastern USA
13th TCS arrives at Eastern USA
22nd TS arrives at Melbourne
42nd TCS arrives at Anchorage
1st FeG/3rd FeS arrives at Aden
1st FeG/6th FeS arrives at Aden
1st FeG/13th FeS arrives at Aden
7th BG/Hq Sqn arrives at San Francisco
307th BG/Hq Sqn arrives at Spokane
308th BG/Hq Sqn arrives at Boise
301st BG/Hq Sqn arrives at Mojave
303rd BG/Hq sqn arrives at Mojave
23rd FG/Hq Sqn arrives at Aden
35th PG/Hq Sqn arrives at San Francisco

This in the addition to the already 450 Fighters currently on the WC.

------------------------
Defensive preparations
------------------------
Allied engineers have been building forts since the same day Japanese forces landed in Alaska. Some key places.

SD - 8
SF - 8
LA - 8
Seattle -7
PR - 6
Alameda - 5
Portland - 6
Tacoma - 5

------------------------
Conclusions
------------------------
A Japanese landing on the WC is an utter impossibility. Especially true in a scenario like this where the Allies have prepared as well as kept extra forces on the WC. But even not counting those "extra" troops (25th ID wrecked at PH + 3rd Marines and 43rd ID which I usually buy out) its still an impossible task.

Given a Japanese landing about D+7 the Allies will have around 15 divisions (6-7000 AV) crashing down on a Japanese beach head. Now make the task even more impossible by adding the requirement of having to outdo the Allies with at least a 4:1 in VPs for this to just break even...

Its just completely and utterly impossible. And if whoever it was that thought this idea up had opened the game and looked at the Allied OOB they would have seen that too.

There are obviously a lot more complication to add to this. Lack of LBA cover for the landing, fuel consumption, allied subs and mines, strain on Japanese shipping and many, many more things. But the biggest issue is obviously what happens in 43 if Japan suddenly pulls 15+ divisions from the line in India/Burma/SOPAC. Japan is already outnumbered in India and Burma. What good is a WC invasion of the Allies grab Rangoon and its 2000 VPs? That is 8000 VPs the Japanese will have to grab (for no own losses) just to equalize the loss of Rangoon.

Oh, and I should probably mention that the VP situation is nowhere near "close". Its currently about 31200:9800. So about a 3,1:1 and has been dropping for the last 4 months from 3,7:1 at its peak.

Anyone still think I should worry about a WC invasion? [:)]