The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not bothering to repair right now due to the frequency of the bombardments. It's just a waste of supply. But I did repairs early on and learned that I have so many engineers present that the airfield can handle fighters usually one to two turns after a bombardment. Usually substantial repairs are complete after about four days. After that the field is basically fully operational.

What do you do, put the engineers on rest? Fixing bad runways, and ports doesn't cost extra supply, building new forts, runways etc does.

I would have my engineers on combat, keeping the pressure (friction) on the Japanese to keep the bombardments up.

[witpqs]

Engineers do use supply to build. And I had thought that they use supply to repair a base. But (as best I recall) in a thread some months back my impression was corrected: supply is not used to repair a base. Alfred was among those who weighed in, IIRC.

There might be other reasons to keep your engineers out of combat mode (in rest mode they use less supply to "eat", or maybe they are less vulnerable to bombardment?), but apparently they will not use supply for the act of repairing the base.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Operation Circus: John sent this in his email today: "With all those troops available from your pull out of Burma, I am working to figure where you will come from now. Been quite the exercise in thought and LOTS of movement accordingly. Sure bet your Intel has been lighting up over the couple of game weeks!" SigInt is quiet today.

Your opponent may be moving lots of units, but what size units is he moving? Are they adequate to defend against the force you will employ in Circus? Have his movements been in time to adequately shore up his defenses?

No, the quantity of the units isn't a concern yet and may not become one. The Allies will be moving in such concentrated strength that it would be hard for John to garrison adequately.

Should never be a real problem. You get a ton of independent Aussie Infantry brigades and battalions that can and should be broken down both for squads and devices. I used to think that three active Australian divisions in the field was the max you could sustain. But you can really field all of the Aussie divisions including rebuilding the units that may have been lost in early 1942. Really the only real issue with all Commonwealth units is devices, not so much squads. India as well has a lot of brigades you can disband.

[Canoerebel]

4/18/43

Battle of Sumatra: No amphibious activity today. The Six Sisters and Two Brothers (BBs Ise and Yamashiro) hit Langsa.

John may be focusing on the Langsa vector instead of amphibious operations. He's changed the composition in the contested hex to the south, where there are now four IJA divisions and two engineer units. Opposing these are a US division and Indian division, and a US arty battalion and US tank battalion. This is jungle (x2) terrain and the infantry divisions have two forts (US) and three forts (Indian). There's potential for John to break through, but I don't think he has quite enough yet.

The Allies are shuffling around two divisions that ended up at the wrong bases for their prep (there were reasons for this, but too involved to explain). As of tomorrow, the divisions will be where they belong. At that point, the division prepped for Langsa will change from strat to combat and can then move forward to reinforce the contested hex.

No change on the west side of the island.

Operation Circus: Some important SigInt today that helps me better piece together the Japanese disposition in the Java/NewGuinea/New Britain arc that I'm watching so carefully. I love the "989 men-at-this-key-base" kind of SigInt. No SigInt of concern in the past four or five days. So things continue to look good. The most important item of information from this point forward will be knowing (or having a solid hunch) as to the KB's whereabouts. The most recent sighting of a major element was about three days ago near map's edge.

An Aussie motorized brigade just left Carnavon to march through the desert to Exmouth. She'll be supplied by Dakotas (I think that will work). SigInt shows a mixed brigade at Exmouth, so the idea is to time the arrival to coincide with the amphibious operations. Exmouth is one of the bases I'll target either early or while "backfilling."

Three Australian infantry units will be leaving Alice Springs enroute to Tennant Creek. The Allies have been bombing this base (and 90th Regiment) for months now. I think supply will be low and 90th able to put up only token resistance. Again, this will be timed to show up just after the amphibious operations are underway. I'd like to get this airfield for recon puproses. I already have the range to recon Darwin, but I'd like to be able to recon Broome, Derby and Timor when the time comes.

[Canoerebel]

4/19/43

Battle of Sumtra: No enemy invasions. That's always the most important news now.

On the east side the Kongos hit Sabang. Enemy air hits Langsa and the troops in the contested hex to the south and the troops on the west side.

On the west side, two IJA divisions shock attack the picket RCT (60 AV) and the tank battalion (55 AV) and fail to dislodge the defenders. The tank battalion takes some losses, but this has to irritate the fool out of John. I think it'll get his blood up so that he'll reinforce and push the defenders back. But he's going nowhere on the west side while it still matters.

On the east side in the contested hex, he's bombarding. He'll try a deliberate attack soon, I think, unless he's awaiting reinfrocements.

Operation Circus: Lots of enemy subs feeling around Oz. Lots of enemy ships around New Guinea and the Solomons. I'd be concerned about Just in Time Reinforcements III, but this time I'm ready (if it happens, which I'm not at all sure it will). I think my preference would be to feint John out of position and instead reinforce Sumatra strongly. There would be poetry in that outcome if successful.

[JohnDillworth]

I think my preference would be to feint John out of position and instead reinforce Sumatra strongly. There would be poetry in that outcome if successful

Doesn't he have you pretty pinned down without the KB? He can't really take his attention off Sumatra. You have to go and if John goes the slow way the KB can go elsewhere. Sooooooo......can you pull the KB away without your carriers? If so can your carriers make a difference in Sumatra if the KB is gone for a bit?

[Canoerebel]

I'm nearly positive that John can't shut down Sabang or maintain an embargo relying on just LBA. The Allied carriers, loaded up with fighters, and standing off, would tear up the LBA. Combat ships could then sprint from carrier protection to Sabang. And there are other ways of approaching it. It's not fullproof, but there's a way to do it. And I think John knows it. He has 12 zillion aircraft at Port Blair right now (and probably similar numbers at Sinabang and the Nocobars airfields, though I don't have recon on them). He's concerned. That's what I want. I want him hyped up on both sides so that when I spring the different feints, he's primed to react.

[obvert]

You may have mentioned it earlier but what is happening in China? Is it all part of the Co-Prosperity sphere now?

If so this does take a ton of pressure of of Japan in terms of troops to use and air groups to send to other theatres, as well as less supply usage necessary.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I think my preference would be to feint John out of position and instead reinforce Sumatra strongly. There would be poetry in that outcome if successful

Doesn't he have you pretty pinned down without the KB? He can't really take his attention off Sumatra. You have to go and if John goes the slow way the KB can go elsewhere. Sooooooo......can you pull the KB away without your carriers? If so can your carriers make a difference in Sumatra if the KB is gone for a bit?

What role does the KB play in the Battle of Sumatra? In my view the KB is essential to the interdiction of sea lanes north and west of Sabang. As such they must operate within a limited geographic area. Remove them from that area, and the Allies can reinforce Sabang with an acceptable level of expected casualties.

The Japanese will face a tough decision if Operation Circus ceommences before they have won the Battle of Sumatra. Do they reduce their efforts around Sabang, and accept defeat in the Battle of Sumatra, or do they risk defeat elsewhere that makes the outcome of the Bettle of Sumatra meaningless? Going forward the Japanese will have to decide how best they can contain the Allies. Will they allow the Allies to develop Sabang as a base for future offensive operations, or will they allow one, or more, of the Circus targets to become a base for future offensive operations?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: obvert

You may have mentioned it earlier but what is happening in China? Is it all part of the Co-Prosperity sphere now?

If so this does take a ton of pressure of of Japan in terms of troops to use and air groups to send to other theatres, as well as less supply usage necessary.

Once John took Changsha (this was in 2013, before I went on sabbatical) and solidified a defensive line, he shut down operations in China. He has a long line in good terrain face by an equally long line of Chinese troops dug in in good terrain.

I haven't done anything to get John interested in China for a specific reason.

When the time comes for Circus to get underway, I want John's radar screen lit up all over the map. So at the same time that the Circus amphibious TFs and/or carriers will be sighted or come to John's attention, he's likewise going to see TFs (small ones, but he won't know at first) from India to Oz to CenPac to the Aleutians). Allied ground units will also make their presence known at forward positions, including China, Exmouth and Tennant Creek.

The idea is to suddenly give John alot of information to process. He'll know quickly which is real and which is feint, but by then even one day's uncertainty will count.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

What role does the KB play in the Battle of Sumatra? In my view the KB is essential to the interdiction of sea lanes north and west of Sabang. As such they must operate within a limited geographic area. Remove them from that area, and the Allies can reinforce Sabang with an acceptable level of expected casualties.....The Japanese will face a tough decision if Operation Circus commences before they have won the Battle of Sumatra...

Poode, this tracks my thinking very closely. Also, I might add that we're very close to the point where there's no way for John to wrap up Sumatra before Circus gets underway.

When I put myself in John's shoes, he must assume that a major Allied operation to relieve Sumatra is imminent. Just like I think he has to invade Sabang and soon, he thinks I have to send ships and carriers and troops and supplies in to salvage the situation. And that's a sensible notion - who would allow an eight-division army with SWPac HQ and a host of other units to get isolated and destroyed? Nobody would. Hence John has to be sure something's going to happen and soon.

He'll also be aware that I might try to create a diversion (or a real thing) to try to draw him away from Sumatra. The increased IJ activity from Java to the Ellice Islands is proof of this. He knows this is a possible strategy, but at this point I'm guessing he is going to keep his eye on Sumatra. To him that probably seems like a much bigger plum than New Guinea or New Caledonia or some other far-flung location for an Allied offensive.

The question is whether or not he's so keyed up that I can push the right buttons to make him react the wrong way.

[Canoerebel]

4/20/43

Battle of Sumatra: No enemy invasion today. No enemy bombardments today. Enemy aircraft continue to hammer the East and West side units.

On the west side, the two IJ divisions shock attack against the picket RCT and tank battalion and push them back a hex with minimal loss. These two divisions are barely able to handle these relatively weak units and have already shown they don't stand a chance against 1st Marine Div. I'm thinking John might be leary of advancing another hex, fearful of getting too far forward and seeing his units roughed up. But perhaps he'll be excited by the prospect of advancing a bit closer to Sabang.

On the east side, in the contested hex south of Langsa, the four IJ divisions are only bombarding the two Allied divisions. I'm thinking John is awaiting reinforcements to bolster his attack.

SoPac: An American RCT (unattached) lands at vacant Canton Island and takes the base. Nells (probably from Tarawa) fly at long range and damage an AMC. This little operation is meant only to tickle John's attention way out on this flank. I have no illusions that he's going to send KB to Rabaul or Tarawa, but he might send a cruiser TF out this way.

Circus: Essex arrives at Canal Zone in less than 25 days. She won't be available if the Allies stick to the present timetable. Based upon recent SigInt and the situation in general, the Allies want to move as soon as possible and before Sumatra's fate is sealed. I'm thinking 30 days now.

[Canoerebel]

Months ago game time, several Forumites expressed a healthy skepticism about estimates that it would take John 40-60 days or longer to move up the west side road to Sabang. My estimate was based in part on providing opposition to hinder the advance. The skepticism came from doubts that movement alone would take so long. I think those concerns were valid - I thought each hex would take at least five days - four to advance, one to attack and brush aside the picket RCT.

All that to say, I did feel like the Allies could slow the advance considerably. We're now at the 35 day mark since the enemy units were first sighted. The Allies stopped three divisions cold using one reinforced but battle-weakened division. I'm pulling that unit back a bit to get closer to the supply source and also to give John some hope that an overland campaign might succeed, since I'd rather him plod overland than invade.

This has all been a complicated yet delicate balance. I'm not sure yet who's going to come out on top. But the Japs have been dancing to an Allied tune on the west side.

[Lecivius]

Gawds, the waiting for what you know must come, but just not when, where, or how.

I'm so glad you started this again [;)]

[poodlebrain]

What concepts do you have for post-Circus operations? My gut tells me that you might be able to force a major naval battle on favorable terms in the Indian Ocean while advancing in the Pacific under LBA and CVE protection.

Any hints you want to provide?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Months ago game time, several Forumites expressed a healthy skepticism about estimates that it would take John 40-60 days or longer to move up the west side road to Sabang. My estimate was based in part on providing opposition to hinder the advance. The skepticism came from doubts that movement alone would take so long. I think those concerns were valid - I thought each hex would take at least five days - four to advance, one to attack and brush aside the picket RCT.

All that to say, I did feel like the Allies could slow the advance considerably. We're now at the 35 day mark since the enemy units were first sighted. The Allies stopped three divisions cold using one reinforced but battle-weakened division. I'm pulling that unit back a bit to get closer to the supply source and also to give John some hope that an overland campaign might succeed, since I'd rather him plod overland than invade.

This has all been a complicated yet delicate balance. I'm not sure yet who's going to come out on top. But the Japs have been dancing to an Allied tune on the west side.

It seems like you used advanced Jedi mind tricks to delay John's start of that countermeasure. Kudos!

[Mike McCreery]

I have a question for you.

If you had it all to do over again. What would you fundamentally change in terms of the timeline and/or troop composition for this campaign. What have you learned essentially.

[Skyland]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
I have a question for you.
If you had it all to do over again. What would you fundamentally change in terms of the timeline and/or troop composition for this campaign. What have you learned essentially.

Adding CD units at Sabang i guess ! [:)]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
It seems like you used advanced Jedi mind tricks to delay John's start of that countermeasure. Kudos!

[:)]

John loves the Star Wars emoticon, so it would be appropriate here. But perhaps the big invasion will arrive tomorrow. I'm making (sometimes) educated guesses, so I could be wrong.

[Lecivius]

Some Jedi mind tricks are hard to ignore...