The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I have a question for you.

If you had it all to do over again. What would you fundamentally change in terms of the timeline and/or troop composition for this campaign. What have you learned essentially.

Man, I've learned alot by doing this invasion. Alot. Here are some of the key things - a few that I got right, others that I got wrong, and others I wasn't aware of or didn't grasp until too late.

1. This invasion was awfully early. November '42 is very early to invade the Japanese heartland. It's done as well as it has for two reasons: (a) I managed to get total, absolute suprirse on John; he didn't react in strenght for weeks, giving me time to get things up and running; and (b) the proximity of Ceylon and Ramree Island, allowing the ready transfer of supplies, aircraft and ships to Sabang and the repair of damaged ships heading out of theater.

John (after we quit the game in '13) and a few players said it was a mistake to not go for Palembang at the start. At first I accepted that as truth. But it was wrong. An invasion on that side - or an invasion of Java or Okinawa or the Home Islands - in November '42 is so early that logistics becomes incredibly difficult, bordering on impossible.

So the choice of western Sumatra was a great choice.

2. I made a mistake in listening to the gifted and smart Nemo, who pushed hard to expand the invasion to Malaya, thus further disrupting and threatening the empire. I siphoned off troops and managed to cut the peninsula in two. But I couldn't "see" how to make it work and ended up dispersing too many troops that I couldn't used better in pursuits I'm about to describe. (It's not Nemo's fault. The guy is brilliant. He could have take the situation and made much better use of it than I could. My fault was not playing within my own capabilities.)

3. I took a bunch of islands - a bunch - and garrisoned them. What I failed to do - what I absolutely should have done - was take at least one of the Nicobars, garrison it strongly - say 150 AV - and build the airfield to allow offensive ops and to facilitiate the transfer of shorter range fighters between Ceylon and Sabang. Had I one major outpost in the Nicobars it would have facilitated what I was doing, it would have slowed John in regaining the other nearby islands, and it would make it easier to come to Sabang's relief now. This, above all things, was a failure in foresight. The biggest thing I'd do differently.

4. I should have considered going for Port Blair. I did, but not seriously due to its garrison. I figured I might need 200 to 300 AV, that they'd be more useful in Sumatra, and that I could backfill to get Port Blair later. I think John had immense supply problems at the base and 4EB from Assam kept it supressed for a long time. Utlimately this was a tough call, but an aggressive and gifted player might've pulled it off.

5. It was a judgment call whether to concnetrate on building forts or airfield at Sabang. The wise Bullwinkle advocated building forts rather than airfield. At that time, the airfield was at 8.7 and forts at about 4.2. I elected to concentrate on the field (and managed to get it to 9), thinking that the larger field might help against bombardments (I don't think it did) and that a Size 9 field would work on John's psyche (it has, I think). An argument could be made that I'd have been better off with level 5 forts. I"m not sure I could've gotten it there before bombardments began, but maybe. This one is a tossup. I'm satisfied with the decision I made.

6. Could I have cobbled together a counterinvasion sooner in order to force John to pull some assets from Sumatra? Well, I did in a way. I had a big offensive in Burma that pressed John and persuaded him to commit alot of air and ground troops. Lack of PP stopped me from undertaking a major amphibious operation (a small and unsuccessful invasion of Noumea doesn't count). I expended all PP for this operation and had only a few hundred as late as mid January of '43. By now I could've put something together, but I don't think it would succeed in siphoning off John's attention. An invaison way out on the perimiter wouldn't distract John (he'd just laugh and know he could react in great force later, when Sumatra was done with). A two- or three-division invasion of New Caledonia or New Guinea or someplace wouldn't pose a real enough threat to draw John from Sumatra; and something of that size in a more critical place - Java, Okinawa, Hokkaido - would have zero chance of holding once John turned his full attention there.

So I believe biding my time to put together a credible force is the best course of action. In the meantime, John's active imagaination contributed some concern on his part, as he's obviously worried about Allied intentions elsewhere. So here I think the decision was the right one for me.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Skyland
Adding CD units at Sabang i guess ! [:)]

Yes, that's a good point!

[Canoerebel]

There is one mistake I made at the start of the game that has affected everything, Sumatra above all. I had a fundamental lack of knowledge about the Allied fighter pools and how they compared (and don't compare) to Japanese production capability.

The fundamental lack of knowledge came about honestly. I was an experienced player. I knew in general that Japanese production is ramped up while the Allies (in this mod, at the time we began) was tethered to historic numbers, so that the air war bears little resemblance to the real war. But I had played deep into the war in the past and had always discovered that by late '42 the Allies seemed to be able to manage. So I figured a late '42 invasion wouldn't be too hobbled.

That's what I get for assuming. Had I bothered to look at actual numbers soberly, I'd have known that creating a colony that would depend on fighter protection was difficult proposition. Very, very tough to do anytime in '42 and probably until summer of '43, when P47s come online (unless you're willing, as I was, to commit the US navy fighters to a ground campaign; in that case, 4/43 when the Hellcats come online is a major date).

The Allies actually did very well in the air war. I think they were winning it handily in a defensive way. But I couldn't use fighters as escorts, which meant there was little offensive capabiility in Sumatra to punish John or keep him honest. I didn't have enough fighters to serve as escorts. Defensively they were very tough on Japan. In escort or sweep roles, however, they tended to get chewed up or damaged and put out of action. I had zero margin to allow for these kinds of thing.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is one mistake I made at the start of the game that has affected everything, Sumatra above all. I had a fundamental lack of knowledge about the Allied fighter pools and how they compared (and don't compare) to Japanese production capability.

The fundamental lack of knowledge came about honestly. I was an experienced player. I knew in general that Japanese production is ramped up while the Allies (in this mod, at the time we began) was tethered to historic numbers, so that the air war bears little resemblance to the real war. But I had played deep into the war in the past and had always discovered that by late '42 the Allies seemed to be able to manage. So I figured a late '42 invasion wouldn't be too hobbled.

That's what I get for assuming. Had I bothered to look at actual numbers soberly, I'd have known that creating a colony that would depend on fighter protection was difficult proposition. Very, very tough to do anytime in '42 and probably until summer of '43, when P47s come online (unless you're willing, as I was, to commit the US navy fighters to a ground campaign; in that case, 4/43 when the Hellcats come online is a major date).

The Allies actually did very well in the air war. I think they were winning it handily in a defensive way. But I couldn't use fighters as escorts, which meant there was little offensive capabiility in Sumatra to punish John or keep him honest. I didn't have enough fighters to serve as escorts. Defensively they were very tough on Japan. In escort or sweep roles, however, they tended to get chewed up or damaged and put out of action. I had zero margin to allow for these kinds of thing.

I think this is a barrier to any serious allied movement up in the Kuriles/Aleutians until 1943. The fighters just cannot provide suitable CAP to protect the bases if they can even be taken.

[poodlebrain]

Historically what offensive operations did the Allies conduct in 1942? What limited their ability to do so? Inadequate LBA and appropriate shipping to transport LCUs. Guadalcanal was a near run because of the Americans' inability to dominate the skies over the island and surrounding seas.

It is small wonder that Canoerebel would run into similar problems given the larger scale of his invasion of Sumatra.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Historically what offensive operations did the Allies conduct in 1942? What limited their ability to do so? Inadequate LBA and appropriate shipping to transport LCUs. Guadalcanal was a near run because of the Americans' inability to dominate the skies over the island and surrounding seas.

It is small wonder that Canoerebel would run into similar problems given the larger scale of his invasion of Sumatra.

I think he has done a good job given the circumstances he put himself into.

My question was not to infer that there was anything wrong with what CR did. I am still trying to grasp the strategic level of the game and how it provides or restricts major moves on the game board.

[Canoerebel]

Achieving surprise on the scale of the Sumatra invasion is the difference maker. If the Allied player does that he has a chance to succeed. And if the Allied player is better than I am, perhaps he wins the war right there. As it is, the operation has been pretty successful.

The game does a good job of pacing operations properly. In the war, the Allies invade Africa '42, Sicily (and Anzio?) '43, and Normandy plus Riviera '44. In this game, the pace of major operations is similar. Massive invasion of Sumatra in late '42 uses up all PP and unrestricted American divisions so that it's difficult to mount an equivalent operation until well into '43. There would have been other options though. A smaller-scale follow-up invasion certainly has merit. And the Allied player can draw on unrestricted divisions to bolster the available forces. I committed 6th and 7th Australian Divisions to Burma, which was an idea with merit, but I could have instead used them to form the nucleus of a powerful amphibious force that could've been ready by January or so.

But one of the things that's artful about this game is that it doesn't give players the opportunity to commit all forces with both sides running to the middle of the map and deciding the war by 1942.

[Canoerebel]

4/21/43

Battle of Sumatra: No Japanese amphibious operations. Six Sisters bombard Sabang. Bombings continue on the east and west side.

On the west side it looks like John is detailing at least one division to try to cross the island to interdict the east road. This journey involves a middle jungle hex with no road and will thus take so long that it doesn't pose a real threat.

On the east side, the four-division IJA stack finally attacks in the contested hex, achieving one to two odds against two Allied divisions. Losses are light, but John knows he'll have to reinforce to have a realistic chance here.

No sign of KB. It's been awhile now - longer than usual for John.

Circus: Jap sub I-2 gets hit hard by ASW near Albany. John has subs on both sides of Oz feeling things out, but he doesn't have eyes yet on ports where Circus is gathering. No SigInt of concern the past few days.

SoPac: No enemy interference at Canton Island today. I unloaded roughly 35 AV. All ships have retired except for one xAK that will (hopefully) unload supplies tonight, hopefully before an INJ CL/DD force arrives (that's John's preferred method of response). A small USN TF of three Clemson-class DDs is patrolling to the front of the base.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Skyland
Adding CD units at Sabang i guess ! [:)]

Yes, that's a good point!

In my defense of Calcutta in 1942 I put six, six inch CD batteries in Diamond Harbor along with a ton of mines. The CD guns had virtually no effect on his bombardments and the mines proves all but useless. In fact the CD units would not even attack his FT convoys resupplying his troops that were engaged at Diamond Harbor. He just kept running bombardment TFs and eventually destroyed every CD gun that I had there. (36 total). On the other hand, Darwin had a couple of nine inch guns and they were actually effective vs his bombardments.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Historically what offensive operations did the Allies conduct in 1942? What limited their ability to do so? Inadequate LBA and appropriate shipping to transport LCUs. Guadalcanal was a near run because of the Americans' inability to dominate the skies over the island and surrounding seas.

It is small wonder that Canoerebel would run into similar problems given the larger scale of his invasion of Sumatra.

Well, you are somewhat correct but the Solomon's campaign is not the best example. The issue there was that until late in the campaign the Allies only possessed one airbase. That was as much of a shortcoming as any lack of aircraft. But yes, you are right. The Allies were pretty thin until late 42. And in game terms even in stock it is difficult to mount an offensive until mid 43. It is not so much air power in mid 43 as it is the Allies ability to expand bases. By early 43 the Allies are pretty much crapping out construction units at will. Perfect example is my current campaign where my opponent conducted a successful campaign around Calcutta eventually taking all of my production centers around there. I tried to throw him out but his air force was just too powerful. However, even after a year in India he could not manage to build one level 9 airfield while I was able to surround him with level nine airfields. That more than anything proved to be his undoing.

[Canoerebel]

CD guns would have been very helpful at Sabang if (and only if) they would have stopped John's MSWs from sweeping the huge minefield. If CD guns aren't effective in that role, then the CD guns would be useless if they didn't target bombardment runs.

Why no CD guns? Most of the Allied CD guns in theater went to Ramree Island in the summer of '42, when that was perhaps the key hex on the map. (New readers won't be familiar with the great Naval Battles of Assam during that period). Getting them out wasn't really possible. That's a level 0 port and any ships would be sitting ducks for enemy bombers, even with Allied fighters at the base.

The invasion of Sumatra included CD guns, but I sent them (two or three units) to Diego Garcia as that base was vital to the flank. At the time, the Allies had a bunch of ports on Sumatra, so no one of them was critical enough to require CDs. It's still possible John will invade Diego, though probably not before he's able to wrap up things in Sumatra.

[DRF99]

Looking at the in game database, the CD unit at Diamond Harbour has 6" Mk V/VII gun with a range of 17. The CD unit at Darwin has 9.2" CD guns with a range of 28.

If the ranges in the database are the same as the 1K ranges for bombardment task forces, I can see where the bombarding task force could be engaged by the 9.2" but be out of range of the 6" guns.

No idea why the 6" guns wouldn't engage FT runs.

[Lowpe]

You have me so keyed up for the ultimate battle at Sabang, that everyday I am a little disappointed there isn't some terrible battle![:-]

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

You have me so keyed up for the ultimate battle at Sabang, that everyday I am a little disappointed there isn't some terrible battle![:-]

Me too [:D]

[Canoerebel]

In early April, after John's army had been stoped cold on the west side and after he had pulled back many of his divisions from the east side, I was certain that an invasion was imminent. It was the only move with potential to wrap up Sumatra within a reasonable period of time.

It may still happen - any turn now. But at the moment I'm leaning a bit towards him trying to push up the east side while he continues his bombings and bombardments in hopes that he can eliminate supply. Hence his probing deliberate attack yesterday in the contested hex south of Langsa.

For him to wrap up Sumatra before Circus begins, he'll have to move soon. Probably in 10 to 15 days it'll be too late for his assets engaged in Sumatra to have a material effect on Circus (unless I try to cross John up by feinting in SWPac and moving instead to reinforce Sumatra).

[Canoerebel]

4/22/43

Battle of Sumatra: No enemy invasion. Kongos bombard Sabang. Jap bombers target Langsa and the troops on the west side. The sneaky Allied withdrawal on the west side seems to have worked - John's lead stack has grown to three units. It isn't clear whether any of them are now trying to cross to the east side (movement dot missing today). No enemy attacks on the east side. No sign of KB.

Operation Circus: SigInt today that 15th Div. is aboard ship bound for Balikpapan. This is a big change - last report had this division going to Medan. This is a solid sign of a Just in Time Reinforcement III. This puts four enemy divisions in the Circus periphery now - this one, 4th at Soerabaja, 6th at Lunga, and 56th at Rabaul. Of these, only 4th is a concern given my targeting preferences. Circus should be ready to go in about 25 days now. But if John does ramp up preparations, and especially if KB shows anywhere from Soerabaja eastward (southward on map, I guess), then there is the exciting alternative....

Operation Chicken: This is the name for the prospective operation to reinforce Sumatra, named for the fabled "game of chicken" that American drivers sometimes play, especially brash young men to whom mortality isn't a realistic prospect.

The Allies don't need a big window to secure Sumatra and are willing to take some losses in accomplishing this. Sumatra and its big airfields are right in the enemy heartland. Infrastructure is there. No danger of losing on the ground. All the support troops in the world are there. Supply is still good. All I need is a window to get Sabang's airfield operational. If I can do that, then I can insert fighters for CAP, combat ships and strike aircraft, thus stopping the naval bombardments and making John go on the defensive.

So how do I get Sabang operational when John has BBs and airfields present? I think it can be done. Even at a moderate cost it's worth it given the immense value of Sumatra.

The plan would be to move the Allied Death Star to within pehaps 10-12 hexes of Sabang (and also within range of enemy airfields at Sinabang and Car Nicobar). The carriers will be overloaded with fighters with just a modest number of strike aircraft (the rest of these available at Colombo). Netties should get chewed to pieces. Then the Death Star moves close to Sabang (and possibly swaps some fighters for strike aircraft if I'm concerned about KB lurking). John's going to be leary of sending in bombardment TFs under those conditions. Given just a day or three, Sinabang will be operational. Then I send in fighters (all squadrons are repaired and staffed by elite pilots), combat ships, and DMs.

As soon as there is fighter cover and combat ships at Sabang, the carriers can pull back.

The Allies are now flush with fast BBs and Fletchers, so surface combat at Sabang will be a different proposition henceforth. As for fighters, that's no longer an issue. With a host of P40Ks and Corsairs and some P38Gs, the air war is on solid footing. If necessary, I'll augment that with F4Fs and/or Hellcats.

Operation Chicken does not require amphibious ships and ground troops (at least in the short term). I have enough troops to hold Sumatra indefinately if I can protect Sabang. Once Sabang is secured, I can reinforce later (while also attending to Sinabang, the Nicobars, etc.)

Give me three days without Kongo bombardments and the campaign for Sabang would be decided.

The biggest question now is whether John keeps KB posted in the Sumatra region or whether he stations it somewhere in the middle, like Soerabaja. If he does the latter, Operation Chicken it will be.

[Lowpe]

Did the game just change there?

A full division to Balikpapen? Why? Where was it previously? Makes no sense to me, unless it is going there to be healed.

How many Fletchers do you have in the Bay of Bengal area?

[Canoerebel]

Since Operation Chicken really just depends on carriers and combat ships it can be ready to go in about 20 days (allowing for some F4Fs to upgrade to Hellcats).

Imagine this: John is pretty primed to expect a big Allied operation moving north from the east or west sides of Australia. I feed his expectation by sending a host of Operation Circus TFs north, some of them loaded with troops. I'd probably do this on the east side, hoping for maximum distance from Sumatra. Something like that should draw the KB and the Kaigun.

That's when Operation Chicken would go, with the carriers moving offshore of Sabang.

Both plans are stand alone. Both have merit. But I'm kind of hoping John is engaged in a JIT Reinforcement operation. The more I think about Sumatra, the more I like the merits of the plan.

[Sangeli]

I think you need more like 5 days without bombardment to get the AF ready. Disruption on service troops as you have noticed is very high from bombardment and units that are disrupted cannot repair. 3 days of disruption recover and 2 for repairs.

That being said, it can be done. If it were me my goal would be to intercept the Japanese bombardment fleets AFTER they've bombarded the base while getting some air cover and protection from the Death Star. Deal a blow to the SCTFs there and your troops will have an easier time. Though this is definitely an area where you want to be careful. If there is one place where John expects the Death Star to pop up, its near Sabang. And this is really the best place for Japan to have a big carrier clash; Singapore is right there while the Ceylon shipyard is relatively modest. I would avoid a fight with the KB here even if it means leaving the Sumatra defenders to Japanese.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Did the game just change there?

A full division to Balikpapen? Why? Where was it previously? Makes no sense to me, unless it is going there to be healed.

How many Fletchers do you have in the Bay of Bengal area?

Nothing's going on in the Java Sea region. No reason for 15th Div. to go to Balikpapan other than John is attending to his defenses in that area. I think 15th was previously posted in China. John recently bought it out and I'd had SigInt that it was aboard ships bound for Medan. Then today the new SigInt came in.

I have something like 15 Fletchers in or close to the IO Theater of Operations. They're divided between Colombo, Capetown and the southern coast of Oz. I'll need a bit of time a few weeks to consolidate my combat ships (especially the fast BBs). But I think the Allies might be in a position to move by May 10.