A Grey Steppe Eagle (loki100 vs Vigabrand)

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

Moderators: Joel Billings, Sabre21

jwolf
Posts: 2493
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:02 pm

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by jwolf »

Seems to me the Germans have to fall back out of Kiev, or risk a Stalingrad type of debacle. Unless Vigabrand is immensely confident in the strength of his units at the critical "neck" hexes he is really playing with fire if he tries to hold. But given that some of those are airbases that doesn't look like an SS army in reserve. The only wild card I see is ... could it be that the absurd tank losses have crippled your armored formations into paper tigers while the Germans can still bite?
User avatar
loki100
Posts: 11708
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:38 pm
Location: Utlima Thule

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by loki100 »

Walloc

fully agree, the combat engine has to generate German tank losses for this period. This attack (from the next turn) is the perfect example of what has gone wrong. That PzGr division has just had one beating (in which it lost 5 tanks), so its retreating on the open steppes with a Soviet tank army after its blood. It manages an awesome controlled retreat - losing no tanks at all:

Image

welcome to hijack - one reason for the AARs is to set out issues with the game engine
ORIGINAL: jwolf

Seems to me the Germans have to fall back out of Kiev, or risk a Stalingrad type of debacle. Unless Vigabrand is immensely confident in the strength of his units at the critical "neck" hexes he is really playing with fire if he tries to hold. But given that some of those are airbases that doesn't look like an SS army in reserve. The only wild card I see is ... could it be that the absurd tank losses have crippled your armored formations into paper tigers while the Germans can still bite?

He's not always the most chatty of opponents so I'm not sure. I think he underestimated what I was doing to the north of Kiev, and perhaps even more how far I was prepared to push west before I swung south.

On the other hand, even with his enhanced Pzr divisions, I think he is stretched. He is just keeping me blocked east of Minsk but I reckon he must have all his best infantry and at least half his Pzrs there. If he weakens that, I'll push towards the German border.

In the Ukraine, while he tends to give ground rather than fight, again he's running out of options. If I get to around Lvov, the rivers south of Warsaw are not that reliable for a defense. So I wonder if he felt he had to try and keep me close to the Dneipr? - which would make some sense. But he's now in danger of escalating his losses (I've sent him T142 and things are pretty chaotic)

But the weakening of my mobile formations is critical, its limiting my ability to exploit situations - not least I need to make full attacks where a hasty attack would have been reasonable. Most of my formations are short on tanks which is starting to lower the cv. Even if I am scrapping the tank regiments, mostly for regiments using the SU-76.
Attachments
wrong.jpg
wrong.jpg (215.44 KiB) Viewed 999 times
Wuffer
Posts: 402
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:08 pm

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by Wuffer »

Hi Walloc, you are absolutely right of course, should have made clearer that my comments are meant ironic
(the whole engine is sooo 'funny', with the actual Panzer Problem only beeing the icy crown of a huge mountain... But looking at the results, one would exspect the battles are part of a 1750's cabinet war with Fredericus against Austria - on a rainy day with wet gun powder, LOL)
Wuffer
Posts: 402
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:08 pm

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by Wuffer »

Loki,
not matter how disturbing some details, the whole picture is no only ok'ish, but very promisising.

But honestly, I had to admit, I was halfway exspecting a huge pocket... (*evil-smile*), without seeing the big picture it's impossible to say of course, but maybe, just maybe here was an oportunity missed, perhaps he should have striked at the shoulders of your spearhead... but you are to clever now obviously. live
and learn. or you won't live long.
Walloc
Posts: 3143
Joined: Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:04 am
Location: Denmark

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by Walloc »

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

Hi Walloc, you are absolutely right of course, should have made clearer that my comments are meant ironic
(the whole engine is sooo 'funny', with the actual Panzer Problem only beeing the icy crown of a huge mountain... But looking at the results, one would exspect the battles are part of a 1750's cabinet war with Fredericus against Austria - on a rainy day with wet gun powder, LOL)

Gotcha [:)]
User avatar
loki100
Posts: 11708
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:38 pm
Location: Utlima Thule

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

Loki,
not matter how disturbing some details, the whole picture is no only ok'ish, but very promisising.

But honestly, I had to admit, I was halfway exspecting a huge pocket... (*evil-smile*), without seeing the big picture it's impossible to say of course, but maybe, just maybe here was an oportunity missed, perhaps he should have striked at the shoulders of your spearhead... but you are to clever now obviously. live
and learn. or you won't live long.

in truth almost every turn I open expecting to find something horrible has happened. I think its getting harder for him to hit back as the rifle corps are a real barrier now and he often needs to use the Pzrs to rescue his infantry - so they are less able to go hunting my tanks formations.

But next turn will feature a grade A, first class foul up ... and all of my own making
Wuffer
Posts: 402
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:08 pm

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by Wuffer »

therefore I like this AAR so much, Loki, you never knows what happened next (and all the peanut audience with their statements proved permanently wrong), the native flavour of firsthand eyperience you know, instead of hollow literaric topoii

... and the fact that you honestly admit your blunders for entertaining us so much *evil-laughter*
i'm ugly, i know- but hey, this is a wargame... about breaking your opponent's will to continue, lol

jwolf
Posts: 2493
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:02 pm

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by jwolf »

But next turn will feature a grade A, first class foul up ... and all of my own making

In fairness, the real Soviets had more than a few of these. You're doing pretty well IMHO.
User avatar
morvael
Posts: 11763
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2006 9:19 am
Location: Poland

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by morvael »

I'm tweaking the numbers and fixing bugs in the system. IMHO it will be better in the second iteration than in the first.
- Reduced base chance for counterattack to 25%, and for fighting withdrawal to 50% (both by 25%). Maximum chance capped at 95%.
- Removed extra protection from German and Finnish AFVs in combat, it is no longer required with the introduction of combat events.
- Soviet repair modificator will be slowly increased with each passing year after 1942.
- Reduced protection of all elements when light post-combat losses are resolved (in case of fighting withdrawals and failed attacks without a counterattack), especially vehicles. Element’s reliability will now play a role in this as well.
- Fixed a bug in calculating average experience of each side in combat (for the purposes of combat events), where each unit had a weight of one instead of weight based on the number of elements in that unit.

I think those changes would allow for a more reasonable loss exchange, especially in late war (with better Soviet repair and worse reliability of Panther and Tiger tanks than Pz IVs), while still maintaining improved loss ratio.

By the way - counter of men "damaged" and "lost" is not precise, because actual losses are lower. These numbers come from elements damaged and lost times number of men in that element. Actually some men are killed, some captured, some disabled and some are just sent back to pool for use during next turn replacements. Thus, number of men damaged and lost shown in combat reports is a bit higher than it should be.

Also, AFV are not just tanks. I decided to put there all kinds of vehicles, as they are not men and not guns either, but I still want to see them included in strength and loss reports. Therefore SP AA, armored cars etc. are all in this number. There is less tanks in battle than this number shows.

Anyway, 2-3 hasty attacks represent one day of fighting. Apart from too low losses during a fighting withdrawal I think the ratios lost per day of battle are quite reasonable. You can't have so bloody battles that after few hours battle entire units would be gutted. The bigger the battle and more units engaged (sometimes an entire army), the lower the % of losses taken should be.
Wuffer
Posts: 402
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:08 pm

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by Wuffer »

morveal,
thx!

btw, I still think the overall readiness is much to high, too - I would guess that at least a rough quarter to third of the available German panzers were alleays in need of repair and not combat ready, SigUp could probably give us much more insight?

And the russian tanks were definiately not made for eternity, too :-)
(which was wise, otherwise the Germans would have (ab)used them)

sry for OT

User avatar
loki100
Posts: 11708
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:38 pm
Location: Utlima Thule

RE: Turn 134: 6-12 January 1944

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

therefore I like this AAR so much, Loki, you never knows what happened next (and all the peanut audience with their statements proved permanently wrong), the native flavour of firsthand eyperience you know, instead of hollow literaric topoii

... and the fact that you honestly admit your blunders for entertaining us so much *evil-laughter*
i'm ugly, i know- but hey, this is a wargame... about breaking your opponent's will to continue, lol


Its also a case of thinking about how to present the other side. Clearly in a vs AI game that doesn't matter, you can create whatever fiction fits your story. In a PBEM, especially with open AARs that I tend to write, its a real issue (at least to me). Clearly I don't know why my opponent does something, not least in a lot of situations what may look like a mistake actually could have been the least worst option open to them. So you have two options.

One is to share the AAR thread. I did this with 3 AARs against Narwhal (active on the AGEOD) boards. An example is here. That has lots of advantages for the reader - the players can indulge in trash talk in the knowledge that the dialogue is even (the other two are actually full of insults and allegations), and there is no harm to presenting a completely one sided view (even slightly made up) as the readers get both sides and can usually work out what is going on. The problem is of course its hugely timeconsuming - not just that you both need to do an AAR but you both need to put in the posts more or less in order.

The other is what I try to do here. I can show where my opponent (I think) did something astute and I can be clear where I've made a mistake. I feel more comfortable with that, as otherwise by its nature the AAR is essentially a one sided perspective.
ORIGINAL: jwolf
But next turn will feature a grade A, first class foul up ... and all of my own making

In fairness, the real Soviets had more than a few of these. You're doing pretty well IMHO.

Oh this is a good one, 2 Mech Corps storm off to their glorious doom, and its not because Vigabrand managed to commit to a major counterattack
ORIGINAL: Wuffer

morveal,
thx!

btw, I still think the overall readiness is much to high, too - I would guess that at least a rough quarter to third of the available German panzers were alleays in need of repair and not combat ready, SigUp could probably give us much more insight?

And the russian tanks were definiately not made for eternity, too :-)
(which was wise, otherwise the Germans would have (ab)used them)

sry for OT

I'll say no more on the tank/afv loss issue. I seem to recall reading somewhere that the Soviets built a T34 to operate for about 9 months. Chances of it lasting that long undestroyed were remote but by that stage poor production standards and poor maintenance would wreck it in any case. Of course, the other side was they were built for relative ease of minor repair and reconditioning.
User avatar
loki100
Posts: 11708
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:38 pm
Location: Utlima Thule

Turn 136: 20 – 26 January 1944

Post by loki100 »

Turn 136: 20 – 26 January 1944

Operation Kutuzov

Several key armies were rewarded for their contribution. 2 Baltic Front's 22 Army became 6 Guards Army and Western Front's 3 Army was designated 7 Guards Army.

Image
[1]

On the Riga sector, Volkhov Front exploited a gap in the German defences to commits its mechanised formations. The spearheads almost reached the Lithuanian border but were left badly exposed when 28 Army failed to broaden the breach.

Image
[2]

Despite this setback, 1 Shock Army at Jekapils managed to extend the Soviet bridgehead, threatening the collapse of the entire German line on the lower Dauga.

At Minsk, the three Soviet Fronts continued their offensive. On the northern flank 2 Baltic took advantage of the weakening of the German lines as they had pulled off their reserves to contain the Volkhov Front. I Baltic had redeployed in the previous week and an offensive led by 20 Army, in turn, enabled 5 Guards Army to almost isolate the German armour east of the city.

Image

The problems for the Germans increased when Western Front launched an offensive along a 40 mile front. This culminated in the cavalry-mechanised elements of 4 Army breaking through and almost reaching the 1939 Bielorussian border.

Image

Image
(Evacuating Soviet wounded after the offensives east of Minsk)

Operation Suvorov

In the Ukraine the Germans made some limited counter-attacks on 3 Ukrainian and North Caucasus Fronts. More importantly they abandoned Kiev and on the 21st elements of the 26 Army entered the capital of the Ukraine.

In order to secure the Soviet lines of communication, 61 Army launched a massive attack on the isolated 293 Infantry division.

Image

For the first time the Germans had actually abandoned a unit cut off by a Soviet offensive and this was the first time a German unit had surrendered.

After several weeks of reorganising, the Soviet Fronts west of the Dneipr were finally in a position to renew their offensives. North Caucasus struck at the German formations on the southern flank of the Cherkassy bulge. At the same 1 Ukrainian shifted direction and attacked westwards trying to cut off the German attempt to retreat from Kiev. By 25 January, advanced elements had broken clear through the German lines and overran a number of Luftwaffe bases.

Image
[3]

As a measure of the growing chaos behind the German front, 40 Army struck at Zhitomir. Not only was it only defended by several security regiments, as Soviet cavalry fought their way into the city they over-ran the headquarters of Army Group South.

Image
[4]

3 and 5 Tank Armies then exploited this victory by swinging west before attacking to the south. At Popelnya, the advanced guards of 1 and 3 Ukrainian met, cutting off all the German formations retreating from Kiev.

Image
[5]

Image
(Soviet tanks near Popelnya)

Image

Still a huge German army with almost .9-1 AFV ratio, but at least one unit is now going to be sat in Germany eating up reinforcements and arms points for a few turns. However, Finland is effectively out of the war and around 12 German divisions are helping them guard their fortress. I am screening this with 3 weak armies (almost no support units and the ToEs at 80%) so around 250,000 men (and am bombing them using the U2s).

Losses were heavy on both sides. The Germans lost 53,000 men (18,000 kia and 15,000 prisoners), 80 AFVs and 330 planes (many destroyed on their airfields). Soviet losses were 60,000 men (31,000 kia), 650 AFVs and 300 planes.


[1] Ironically 3 Army has no combat formations under its command. It is in charge of the Front's artillery assets. Also the rifle corps in 1 Ukrainian and North Caucasus Fronts are slowly reaching Guards status which helps increase the threat on that sector
[2] The more astute of you will spot I perhaps got the sequence of movement and attack rather wrong in this instance.
[3] This shows the positions before I started moving 3 Ukrainian to the north. Note all those nice undefended air bases (and all their planes have been heavily committed to the earlier fighting).
[4] I used an entire army as I didn't trust my recon. Taking Zhitomir would significantly undermine any German attempt to shore up their front on this sector (regardless of how much escaped from Kiev), it also cleared the way for the rest of the armour to swing west behind the Germans. That I displaced AGS was an unexpected bonus.
[5] I think for once showing the actual map makes things more clear than a simplified version. There is no way will that pocket hold but the Germans now have the problem of both defending their rear and protecting the infantry falling back from Kiev.

This sets up the (ongoing) sequence of chaotic battles that will sprawl across the northern Ukraine for the rest of the winter. It also fits into my basic plan that if I can make the Pzrs move/attack in their turn I face few reserve reactions in my turn.
SigUp
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:14 am

RE: Turn 136: 20 – 26 January 1944

Post by SigUp »

Weak German forces in the region Zhitomir-Korosten possibly opening up the road to Rovno and a strong German balcony from Zhitomir southwards. Now, where have I seen that before? [8D]
User avatar
loki100
Posts: 11708
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:38 pm
Location: Utlima Thule

RE: Turn 136: 20 – 26 January 1944

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: SigUp

Weak German forces in the region Zhitomir-Korosten possibly opening up the road to Rovno and a strong German balcony from Zhitomir southwards. Now, where have I seen that before? [8D]

aye, what I need to do is to disentangle 3 Ukr from the Kiev battles to go west. I'm extracting 4 Ukr from the south - its doing nothing useful as the Romanians/Hungarians are just pulling back. I'll then use that to attack the Germans south of Zhitomir as it will both save my tanks and in any case its going to become the sort of battle where the Rifle Corps is king. But it'll take me a few turns to get everything into position.

But the map onto the historical situation is uncanny, but if Vigabrand wants to hit back he either needs to weaken north of the Pripyet or find some way to free up his Pzr divisions.
jwolf
Posts: 2493
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:02 pm

RE: Turn 136: 20 – 26 January 1944

Post by jwolf »

Why all the artillery in the frozen swamps about 10 hexes NW of Kiev?

Displacing AGS HQ was a nice touch. I'll bet that got their attention. [8D]
User avatar
loki100
Posts: 11708
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:38 pm
Location: Utlima Thule

RE: Turn 136: 20 – 26 January 1944

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Why all the artillery in the frozen swamps about 10 hexes NW of Kiev?

Displacing AGS HQ was a nice touch. I'll bet that got their attention. [8D]

They were starting to lag behind and are no use unless I can bring them up to the front with at least 6 MPs. So I'm letting them rest on a rail line till the front solidifies. Rather than move them a few hexes a turn I tend to move them by rail once there is a decent distance of converted hexes for them to move up onto. Its one reason I've added more airpower to the Ukraine as I am outrunning my artillery formations.

I'm leaving a lot in the S Ukraine well to the rear now as well. The Axis forces down there clearly don't want to fight, they fall back according to the battles in the C Ukraine so I am saving trucks by leaving most of my formations on the repaired rail lines.

I was very surprised to find it there ... not sure I did any real damage (though it probably had quite a few repair assets) but its quite fun to over-run something so high up the command chain. All I got before the attack was a '?' which is why I was very suspicious the city was defended by something more than a couple of security regiments.
jwolf
Posts: 2493
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:02 pm

RE: Turn 136: 20 – 26 January 1944

Post by jwolf »

not sure I did any real damage [to AGS]

As I recall the HQ itself doesn't really take losses, but supply distribution and especially support unit commitments are seriously diminished as a result. Is this correct?
User avatar
loki100
Posts: 11708
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:38 pm
Location: Utlima Thule

RE: Turn 136: 20 – 26 January 1944

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: jwolf
not sure I did any real damage [to AGS]

As I recall the HQ itself doesn't really take losses, but supply distribution and especially support unit commitments are seriously diminished as a result. Is this correct?

I know you can wreck the supply dumps and bounce the HQ so that it doesn't act as a supply funnel for its units. I think you can damage the attached SUs (I've certainly lost both parts and all of SUs) but not sure if that only happens if the HQ is displaced when cut off?

In either case, I doubt that AGS is doing much that is important - its probably still in command range for its attached army HQs and I guess if there were any SUs they would be rail repair formations.

More its just a very pleasing thing to have done - after enduring 1941 and 1942 its rather nice to be over-running my opponent's rear bases and HQs
User avatar
loki100
Posts: 11708
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:38 pm
Location: Utlima Thule

Turn 137: 27 January – 2 February 1944

Post by loki100 »

Turn 137: 27 January – 2 February 1944

This week saw a major reorganisation of the Soviet command structure. The armies drawn into Stavka reserve when the Bryansk Front had been disbanded were increasingly in action in support of 3 Ukrainian Front. Accordingly Stavka raised a new Front command to control this sector, designated 2 Bielorrusian Front. Also Konstantin Rokossovsky was promoted to take command of the Western Front as Stavka sought a decisive victory at Minsk.

Operation Kutuzov

Here a major commitment of the German reserves tried to ensure that 2 Shock Army was cut off. However, a combination of 28 Army breaking their front line and a paratroop drop at least opened a line of communication to the isolated formations.

Image

Around Minsk, Soviet pressure steadily mounted. Here the bulk of the German reserves had been drawn off to deal with the crisis at Riga.

Image

Image
(fighting on the outskirts of Minsk)


Operation Suvorov

To deal with the Soviet gains in the previous week, the Germans redeployed all the armoured formations that had been holding back North Caucasus Front. Briefly the tables were turned as this time the Soviet armour, especially on the upper Skvirka, were cut off.

Image

However, the German position remained weak, especially as they were falling back with no prepared defensive positions. 7 Tank Army not only broke through to the Soviet tankers but also cut open a 30 mile gap in the German front line.

Image

Image
(elements of 7 Tank Army in action)

2 Tank Army then struck north, again cutting off the German infantry falling back from Kiev. In turn, 1 Tank Army moved through the gap torn by 7 Tank. With 3 Tank attacking from the north, the Germans faced the risk of a dual encirclement but a last ditch defence by IX Corps was just sufficient to keep open the lines of communication.

Image

To the south, 4 Tank Army also attacked and threatened to cut off the German Panzers that had earlier encircled the Soviet armour.

Image

With their armoured reserve gone, the German line in the south started to fall apart as the Cavalry-Mechanised elements of North Caucasus Front drove south and west.

Image

OOB

Image

Losses continued to be heavy. The Germans lost 50,000 men (26,000 kia), 80 AFVs and 90 planes. Soviet losses were 62,000 men (33,000 kia), 1,100 AFVs and 330 planes.
Wuffer
Posts: 402
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:08 pm

RE: Turn 137: 27 January – 2 February 1944

Post by Wuffer »

that looks ugly for him.
Whenever I started thinking about the right moment to retreat, I came to the conclusion that I should have gone allready long before. ..
Post Reply

Return to “After Action Reports”