Fleet assets

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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mdiehl
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Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

While they had no sureties, they did have a reasonable
expectation of achieving suprise do to their planning. History
shows that US errors and attitudes made it an even better
chance than the Japanese themselves thought. A third Jap
airstrike in the afternoon of the 7th is not an outrageous idea
and would still leave a significant "reserve" aboard Kido Butai
should Enterprise decide to fight (Yorktown wouldn't be in
range). It's "gamey" in the sense that the primary targets
would be the oil tanks and Submarine Shops, neither of which
were the kind of targets the IJN was historically drawn to---
but part of the purpose of a game is to see what might have
happened had the original participants in the affair been as
"clever" as the game-players.
"History" does not "show" anything. People writing about historical events make claims, some of which logically follow from that which is known, and some of which does not. In re "expectations" we're talking about how the game should work from the perepsective of people at the time. The Japanese could not in any way "know" what the alert state of the HI would be, nor could they "expect" surprise. All that they could accomplish was to do the best they could to achieve it.

Had they known that their diplomatic and some naval codes were being read, they'd probably have turned back. As it was, only a very wierd set of coincidences allowed them to pull off the surprise raid. Decrypts in translation on 5 December (and there were multiple decrypts) pointed to a high-priority interest in the Pacfleet and ships at anchor in PH. The convergence was strong enough that the in-the-lab codebreakers saw the consistency and red flagged a bunch for immediate review. Alas, a Friday afternoon and a couple of lax superiors resulted in these being shelved "until Monday" (8 Dec. see Stanley Weintraub "A Long Day's Journey Into War").

Throw in any of another slightly altered decisions on 6 Dec in HI and 7 Dec (at the radar station CO level) and tactical surprise is lost. I think a realistic WW2PTO game should begin with the IJN player NOT KNOWING whether or not his strike is going to gain surprise. Of course, most IJN players would cave if the PH raid did not get surprise and was met with substantial opposition, so for the sake of a game that runs until 1945 it's probably better that "surprise" is hard coded.
It would (and should) include the chance that Enterprise
MIGHT get in a strike with the kind of lucky timing that occurred
at Midway. Of course, the US search could "miss", and leave
the Enterprise "hung out to dry" as well.
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the events at Midway. The timing of the Midway strikes was deliberately calculated to hit the Japanese fleet when they were recovering a/c and otherwise fully maxxed on their command and control.

One should not assume that only Enterprise is available to counterattack. If one is going to take away the uncertainty about surprise on PH, and if one is going to allow the IJN player the option to mount successive raids on PH, then the game should force the IJN player to deal with the historical realities of the moment: managing a mission-overtasked bloated TF of 6 CVs in the face of great uncertainty as to the locations of two American CVs who might, even as that "3rd wave" begins to head off to bomb those oil farms, arrive overhead and sink 6 Japanese CVs at the outset of the game.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
Highlander
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Joined: Thu May 16, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Germany

....

Post by Highlander »

For the IJN 6 carriers it would be easy to sunk the two US carriers, because they had much more and better planes. The IJN only needs a good timing of their CAP.
Chiteng
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Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by mdiehl
The heart of your premise is that the Jpn player should reap full immediate tactical benefit from 60 years of historical hindsight, and tactical information (where the Allied CVs will be at set up is a known characteeristic of the OOB, as is knowledge of the likelihood of success at PH) without risk. It's a poor idea for a strategy simulation, but ok if you change the name of the game to "War in the Pacific on Planet Xenon."

In reality, Japan had no sureties that the PH attack would achieve tactical surprise and no knowledge of the location of the US CVs. A GOOD game will force the Jpn player to confront these realities. An AXIS FANBOY FANTASY will simply allow the Jpn player to skip over these realities and make complete use of knowlegde that was not available to Jpn at the time.


It is odd that Mdiehl is perfectly willing to complain in this instance
when it 'might' favor the Japs. Yet you see no such complaints from him about a player extending the use of Coastal Subs
simply because a player knows that the Coastal Subs are more
effective, when in reality, the Commanders didnt know that.

So which is it? Effective 100% hindsight or reality?
Or is it a case of 'anything that favors the USN is good'?
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
mdiehl
Posts: 3969
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

For the IJN 6 carriers it would be easy to sunk the two US carriers, because they had much more and better planes. The IJN only needs a good timing of their CAP.
Almost every word in those two sentences, save the articles and prepositions, is incorrect. Assuming that two US CVs launch a coordinated strike (which they did off the coast of New Guinea in Spring 1942, and again, twice, at Coral Sea), and times it such that the strike arrives when the IJN TF is heavily involved in plane handling (as they did at Midway), then the US would have roughly 75 strike aircraft and 30 escorts facing maybe 30 Japanese fighter in a poorly coordinated CAP. Since USN CV based wildcats shot down 1.5 Zekes per Wildcat shot down, and since US aircraft had superior team coordination, it is reasonable to assume that most of the US strike a/c would make it through the IJN CAP. It takes approximately 2x1000lb bomb hits to sink a vulnerable IJN CV, if the target is as vulnerable as the ones at Midway. Maybe 5 hits to do for one in a proper state of damage control readiness. IMO there's enough dauntlesses in the hypothetical strike to EASILY do the job.

As to "better" planes, much of that is dependent on what you mean by better. If you're talking about divebombing, the SBDs were far superior to Vals. If you're talking about fighters, it helps to know that the F4F had a greater roll rate, and could beat an A6M in a 180 degree direction change at speeds in excess of around 320 mph. Only at speeds lower than 250 knots did the A6M excel at maneuver combat. And the other vulnerabilities of Japanese a/c are well-known.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
Highlander
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu May 16, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Germany

....

Post by Highlander »

The Mitsubishi A6M outperformed the F4F, OK the US planes are well-armed and reliable, but the elite IJN pilots are simply better.
This elite pilots are a very good an coordinated in their fighting aginst the US planes.
You must read some books, the SBD was a small aircraft, slow and vulnerable, and already considered obsolete when it entered service. At Pearl Harbor the 129 'Vals' launched from six carriers (37 percent of the plans in the two attack waves) struck at Army and Navy airfields as well as the U.S. warships. In the subsequent Japanese carrier sweep of the Pacific the 'Vals' were highly effective; in the Indian Ocean on April 5, 1942, an attack of fifty-three 'Vals' sank two British heavy cruisers in just nineteen minutes - every bomb released at the radically maneuvering warships was a hit or near miss.
A fact is that the crack pilots of the first month could easily handle a 1:1 fight against a US carrier fleet.
mdiehl
Posts: 3969
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

The Mitsubishi A6M outperformed the F4F, OK the US planes are well-armed and reliable, but the elite IJN pilots are simply better.
This is factually incorrect on both counts. The A6M's relative strengths were as follows: Greater climb rate. Greater maximum level flight speed (by about 8mph, so the advantage was very small). Lower time required to complete a 180 degree reversal of direction at airspeeds lower than about 280 mph. The A6M's major flaws included: The famous lack of defensive armor or self-sealing fuel tanks. Crappy armament, including rifle caliber MGs (almost useless) and low rof, low-velocity cannons. Poor structural strength. Near complete lack of maneuverability at speeds in excess of 350 mph, so it could not follow any opponent diving out of combat, nor could it dive out of combat to avoid being destroyed.

The F4Fs advantages were: Heavier, more reliable armament (four .50 MGs, six MGs in F4F-4 series). Heavy armor and extremely durable construction (for which Grumman was legendary). Very rapid acceleration in a dive. Greater roll rate at all speeds (meaning that an overtaking A6M would often overshoot an F4F rolling out of the way). Greater maximum speed dive (in excess of 400 mph. Japanese A6Ms, by comparison, tended to break up at speeds in excess of 370 mph). The F4Fs' only relative weaknesses were lower climb rate and, at slow speeds, poor acceleration and inferior low-speed (less than 280-300 mph approximately) time-to-turn (180 degree) as compared with the Zero.

As to pilot quality. It is an established fact that in direct confrontations between USN VM (carried based) F4F pilots shooting at or being shot at by A6Ms, in 1942, the US pilots shot down roughly 1.5 Zeros per Wildcat lost. Japanese naval pilots were not superior in any way. Their particular weaknesses included the use of an outdated 3-plane section in combat, and poor mutual support doctrine. Japanese sources complain, as late as 1943, that pilots were being encouraged to fight as individuals rather than as mutually supporting teams. in contrast, the USN used 2x2-plane sections based on the German innovations of 1938-1940, gleaned by studying the Battle of Britain. USN fighter pilot combat doctrine was superior, even before particular maneuvers like the "beam defense" (a.k.a. "Thach-weave" a.k.a. "Thach-Flatley weave") were in vogue.

Most people who believe in the elite status of IJN naval pilots can only grasp air time and in-theater combat experience in China. To that I can only respond that the evidence proves that USN pilots were better, regardless of the amount of time in training, and that combat experience in China probably taught the Japanese all the wrong lessons in attempting to go up against a 1st line opposition.
A fact is that the crack pilots of the first month could easily handle a 1:1 fight against a US carrier fleet.
That's not a fact, that's your opinion. Based on the actual engagements with verified unit records (not pilot claims), one would expect an equal number of USN fighters and IJN fighters to fight to a draw, or else have the US win by a margin of 1.2:1 to 2:1. IMO, an a 1:1 fight of US aircraft vs. Japanese ones, the fighter loss ratio will be about 1:1-2:1 favoring the US, and the losses in strike aircraft will be 2:1 - 3:1 favoring the US (because US strike aircraft have a much higher chance of surviving battle damage from AAA).
You must read some books
It's not how much you read. It's what you read. Based on your comments I'm pretty sure I've read better books (and quite possibly more books) than the ones you've read.

In other respects. USN dive bomber training was better; the USN invented dive bombing in 1936, and the Gemans and Japanese copied thereafter. Dive bombing was the principle strike emphasis of the USN. The SBD was a better weapon system than the Val, and it had better defensive armor. I'm not dissing the Val much in pointing this out. Like the Stuka (Ju-87), it was an excellent dive bomber as long as there was nothing in the way to oppose it. The same can be said of the Stringbag (Fairey Swordfish) as a torpedo bomber. The battles with Eastern Fleet are instructive primarily because of the repeated lesson (to the British) that warships that lack air cover are very vulnerable. And face it, Hermes' pathetic complement of aircraft scarcely counts as "air cover."
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
Highlander
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu May 16, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Germany

....

Post by Highlander »

Here is a part of a good book for you...
But I know you think you have the only good books...

ALLIED FIGHTERS: THE F4F WILDCAT
From Pages 250 to 252



Until August 1942, except for the Battle of the Coral Sea in May, USAAF and Australian pilots flying over Australia and New Guinea bore the brunt of the air war against Japan. When the Marines invaded Guadalcanal an entirely new front opened up in the Solomons. For six months Marine pilots flying from famous Henderson Field on Guadalcanal, as well as comrades in the U.S. Navy operating from Admiral Halsey’s aircraft carriers, were in the center of the storm. Fortunately for the United States during late 1942, when the entire campaign was in the balance, navy and Marine pilots had an able fighter—the Grumman F4F Wildcat.


Grumman engineers designed the Wildcat for use on aircraft carriers, a Grumman specialty. Its F3F biplane was the standard navy fighter before the war and a design influence on the Wildcat. The Wildcat, like all carrier-based planes (including the Zero), had to be built in such a way that allowed carrier pilots to cope with the difficult challenges presented by take-offs and landings on a tiny, tossing flight deck . Knowing this the Grumman designers, like their Japanese counterparts working on the Zero, gave the Wildcat great lift by situating the large wing very far forward on the fuselage. The high lift generated by the large wing area helped the pilot take off quickly and land slowly. It also made the Wildcat the most maneuverable aircraft flown by American pilots in 1942.

Like the Zero the Wildcat paid a penalty for its high lift: slower level speed. High lift, so necessary for low-speed performance, works against pure speed. The only way to compensate for this reality is to increase the power of the engine. Eventually this is what American designers did. When Grumman produced the Wildcat, however, the 1,200-horsepower Pratt and Whitney radial engine was the best available. Note that the Zero possessed even greater lift than did the Wildcat and mounted a somewhat smaller engine. The Zero, however, was nearly 1,600 pounds lighter, giving it a better power-to-weight ratio. Consequently at most altitudes the Zero was slightly faster than the Wildcat. The USN and Grumman, however, helped to even the odds somewhat by fitting the Pratt and Whitney engine with the first of what became the standard mechanically driven two-stage two-speed supercharger, thereby allowing the engine to keep its power up to a reasonable altitude. Like all the early-war fighters, however, the Wildcat was happier below 20,000 feet than above it. Although the Wildcat was nimble for a U.S. warplane, it could not match the Zero’s outstanding flight characteristics in most spheres.

Marine and Navy pilots at the time did not, in general, hold the Wildcat in very high esteem. In the carrier engagements and early in the Guadalcanal campaign they felt outclassed when confronting the Zero. In August 1942 Lieutenant Commander John Thach, a hero at Midway and famous tactician, told his superiors:

In connection with the performance of the Zero fighter, any success we had against the Zero is not due to performance of the airplane we fly but is the result of the comparatively poor marksmanship on the part of the Japanese, stupid mistakes made by a few of their pilots and superior marksmanship and teamwork on the part of some of our pilots. This deficiency not only prevents our fighter [the F4F—EB] from properly carrying out its mission but it has had an alarming effect on the morale of the fighter pilots in the Fleet at this time and on those who are going to be sent to the Fleet.
J.A.O. Stub, a pilot with the Marine squadron VMF 121 on Guadalcanal, recalls a pep talk given by one the famous leaders of the Cactus Air Force, Lieutenant Colonel Joe Bauer: “Bauer was a splendid leader and pilot. When comparing the Zero with the F4F, Bauer said, ‘A Zero can go faster than you can, it climb faster than you can, and it can outmaneuver you. Aside from those things, you’ve got a better airplane.’” Yet in time the Wildcat showed some very formidable features. For carrier use the F4F was extremely stable, thus keeping down the accidental losses that plagued carrier operations. Interesting testimony on this comes from John Herbert, a British pilot who flew off of HMS Victorious. In early 1943 the Royal Navy agreed to lend Victorious to Admiral Halsey in the South Pacific so the battle-scarred Enterprise could receive a full refit on the West Coast. By this time Fleet Air Arm was largely equipped with F4Fs, which it called the "Martlet."

RETURN TO BOOK EXCERPTS ON FIGHTERS PAGE
RETURN TO THE FIRE IN THE SKY HOME PAGE
Chiteng
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Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2001 10:00 am
Location: Raleigh,nc,usa

re: Mdiehl

Post by Chiteng »

Most people who believe in the elite status of IJN naval pilots can only grasp air time and in-theater combat experience in China. To that I can only respond that the evidence proves that USN pilots were better, regardless of the amount of time in training, and that combat experience in China probably taught the Japanese all the wrong lessons in attempting to go up against a 1st line opposition.

*************************************************
And with the above statement Mdeihl makes it very plain
that he gives no credence whatever to ANY idea of Japanese
superiority in ANY weapon system.

So what then do we call him? An 'Allied Fanboy?'
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
Highlander
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu May 16, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Germany

....

Post by Highlander »

'Allied Fanboy?' that sound´s good, but we must respect every person in this forum and his view of the great war.

But one question mdiehl: Do you think that some IJN weapon are much better then the allied ones ?
TIMJOT
Posts: 1705
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2001 8:00 am

Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by mdiehl
Almost every word in those two sentences, save the articles and prepositions, is incorrect. Assuming that two US CVs launch a coordinated strike (which they did off the coast of New Guinea in Spring 1942, and again, twice, at Coral Sea), and times it such that the strike arrives when the IJN TF is heavily involved in plane handling (as they did at Midway), then the US would have roughly 75 strike aircraft and 30 escorts facing maybe 30 Japanese fighter in a poorly coordinated CAP. Since USN CV based wildcats shot down 1.5 Zekes per Wildcat shot down, and since US aircraft had superior team coordination, it is reasonable to assume that most of the US strike a/c would make it through the IJN CAP. It takes approximately 2x1000lb bomb hits to sink a vulnerable IJN CV, if the target is as vulnerable as the ones at Midway. Maybe 5 hits to do for one in a proper state of damage control readiness. IMO there's enough dauntlesses in the hypothetical strike to EASILY do the job.

As to "better" planes, much of that is dependent on what you mean by better. If you're talking about divebombing, the SBDs were far superior to Vals. If you're talking about fighters, it helps to know that the F4F had a greater roll rate, and could beat an A6M in a 180 degree direction change at speeds in excess of around 320 mph. Only at speeds lower than 250 knots did the A6M excel at maneuver combat. And the other vulnerabilities of Japanese a/c are well-known.


Mdhiel, here we go again.

First, I believe the Lexington was euiquiped with F2A Buffalos not Wildcats on Dec 7 1941. Second you assume much. The fact is that in 3 out of the 4 carrier battles in the first year of the war the USN a/c failed to sink a single IJN CV coordinated strikes not withstanding. Midway was a brilliant success and yes the strikes were timed to *TRY* to catch the IJN carriers in the midst of recovery. However luck did play apart. The IJN had contingency plans (ie 2nd striked armed and ready for naval attack) if not for the fortuitus malfunction of a catapult, it was unlikely the CVs would have been caught in the condition they were historically.

As has been pointed out to you before, that unlike Midway the 3rd strike was planed with the expectation of USN CV intervention. Genda recomended 2 CVs held in reserve for just such a eventuality and additional CAP. It is also not reasonable to assume that under the circumstances of the PH attack that had Halsey or any other Adm. spotted the IJN CVs that he would have held back an attack with the hopes of catching them in the midts of recovery later. More likely he would have sent out an attack immediately. How could he do otherwise? Unlike Midway he would have no Idea how many CVs were out there or if some were actively hunting him at that very moment. He simply would not have the luxury of setting up a *timed* ambush.

How is it that Midway is regarded by you as the rule rather than the exception that it was , but Savo and Tassfronga are correspondingly considered exceptions?
mdiehl
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Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

Grumman engineers designed the Wildcat for use on aircraft carriers, a Grumman specialty. Its F3F biplane was the standard navy fighter before the war and a design influence on the Wildcat. The Wildcat, like all carrier-based planes (including the Zero), had to be built in such a way that allowed carrier pilots to cope with the difficult challenges presented by take-offs and landings on a tiny, tossing flight deck . Knowing this the Grumman designers, like their Japanese counterparts working on the Zero, gave the Wildcat great lift by situating the large wing very far forward on the fuselage. The high lift generated by the large wing area helped the pilot take off quickly and land slowly. It also made the Wildcat the most maneuverable aircraft flown by American pilots in 1942.

Like the Zero the Wildcat paid a penalty for its high lift: slower level speed. High lift, so necessary for low-speed performance, works against pure speed. The only way to compensate for this reality is to increase the power of the engine. Eventually this is what American designers did. When Grumman produced the Wildcat, however, the 1,200-horsepower Pratt and Whitney radial engine was the best available. Note that the Zero possessed even greater lift than did the Wildcat and mounted a somewhat smaller engine. The Zero, however, was nearly 1,600 pounds lighter, giving it a better power-to-weight ratio. Consequently at most altitudes the Zero was slightly faster than the Wildcat. The USN and Grumman, however, helped to even the odds somewhat by fitting the Pratt and Whitney engine with the first of what became the standard mechanically driven two-stage two-speed supercharger, thereby allowing the engine to keep its power up to a reasonable altitude. Like all the early-war fighters, however, the Wildcat was happier below 20,000 feet than above it.
Up to here, this general summary seems consistent with other sources and known facts about airplane performance.
Although the Wildcat was nimble for a U.S. warplane, it could not match the Zero’s outstanding flight characteristics in most spheres.
Here your source makes a transition from really general characteristics to the sort of contentless generalized assessment that has no value for evaluating the qualities of aircraft. See my previous post. There were many flight conditions in which the F4F was a more maneuverable airplane than the A6M. These occurred at high speeds. At all speeds the F4F had a higher roll rate. This meant that it was difficult for a trailing A6M to rapidly react to a radical maneuver by an F4F intended to change its vector. Erikson Schilling felt that roll rate was a more important characteristic when evaluating the maneuverability of aircraft, but then he was a P40 driver and so tended to combat he Japanese at higher speeds anyhow.

Without lecturing too much about flight dynamics, the higher roll rate of the F4F vis the A6M was a consequence of the greater HP of the F4F (apply the right hand rule from physics and keep in mind that the strength of the force vector is proportional to the thrust provided by the engine), and, perversely, the very large wing surface of the Zero (which was a liability in attempting to roll).
Marine and Navy pilots at the time did not, in general, hold the Wildcat in very high esteem. In the carrier engagements and early in the Guadalcanal campaign they felt outclassed when confronting the Zero.
I recommend that you consider Lundstrom's "The 1st Team at Guadalcanal" for a thorough picture of USN/USMC appraisal of the F4F. They held it in EXTREMELY high esteem and recognized that you had to fly to its strengths. Now to Thach:
In connection with the performance of the Zero fighter, any success we had against the Zero is not due to performance of the airplane we fly but is the result of the comparatively poor marksmanship on the part of the Japanese, stupid mistakes made by a few of their pilots and superior marksmanship and teamwork on the part of some of our pilots. This deficiency not only prevents our fighter [the F4F—EB] from properly carrying out its mission but it has had an alarming effect on the morale of the fighter pilots in the Fleet at this time and on those who are going to be sent to the Fleet.
This is an interesting quotation and very familiar to me for a variety of reasons. First, it flies in the face of Axis Fanboy propganda about the IJN operating both better planes and manning them with better pilots. Thach clearly felt that Japanese pilots had a lousy sense of teamwork, but were alos poorly trained in shooting (Lundstrom and others have in particular narrowed Thach's analysis to 'deflection shooting' because the USN/USMC trained at it heavily, whereas it was doctrinally underemphasized by the IJN). Then there's the remark about "mistakes on the part of a few pilots." I tend to ignore that, because many pilots lost their lives as a result of "mistakes."

The one consistent error made by Japanese pilots was to overshoot F4Fs when the latter decelerated or rolled. Japanese pilots then often compounded their error by looping up too close to the F4F that they'd just overshot. The result was that a US pilot heavily trained in deflection shooting could hammer a vulnerable Japanese plane. I suspect that part of the Japanese error in this was the lack of knowledge about the F4F's .50 MG performance. The looping maneuver would seem less risky if your enemy is armed with rifle caliber .303s or low velocity cannons.

Now to Thach's general thrust. His opinion that you cite was solicited by Halsey, among others, because the US armaments industry was very "user friendly" with respect to retooling. At the time, Halsey and Thach thought that the USN was winning by a 3-4:1 kill ratio, based on 'verified' US pilot claims and knowledge of actual U.S. losses. This leaves one wondering why Thach and Halsey pulled such "long faces." The answer is that US op planners expected as a matter of course for the US to achieve BETTER THAN 3-4:1 kill ratios and were disappointed with the perceived results. (In actuality, when Thach wrote that summary, the kill ratio for USN pilots vs IJN pilots was about 1.6:1, and for USMC vs IJN pilots roughlty 1:1, so the situation was worse than Thach and Halsey realized at the time).

What's really remarkable is the attitude by the respective combatants. When the Japanese scored perceived 3:1 loss ratios they were ecstatic, because it "validated" their pilot training and procurements program. The Japanese conclusion was that nothing needed improvement. In contrast, the USN official response was that 3:1 favorable kill ratios were not nearly good enough, hence such training innovations as the USN advanced tactical fighter school.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
Chiteng
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2001 10:00 am
Location: Raleigh,nc,usa

Re: ....

Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by Highlander
'Allied Fanboy?' that sound´s good, but we must respect every person in this forum and his view of the great war.

But one question mdiehl: Do you think that some IJN weapon are much better then the allied ones ?


I extend respect only when it is reciprocated. In Mdeihl's case it
is noticibly absent. He routinely calls anyone who feels the Japs had an edge anywhere 'axis fanboys'

He ignores battles like Savo and Tass because they are inconvenient.
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
Chiteng
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2001 10:00 am
Location: Raleigh,nc,usa

Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by TIMJOT
First, I believe the Lexington was euiquiped with F2A Buffalos not Wildcats on Dec 7 1941. Second you assume much. The fact is that in 3 out of the 4 carrier battles in the first year of the war the USN a/c failed to sink a single IJN CV coordinated strikes not withstanding. Midway was a brilliant success and yes the strikes were timed to *TRY* to catch the IJN carriers in the midst of recovery. However luck did play apart. The IJN had contingency plans (ie 2nd striked armed and ready for naval attack) if not for the fortuitus malfunction of a catapult, it was unlikely the CVs would have been caught in the condition they were historically.

As has been pointed out to you before, that unlike Midway the 3rd strike was planed with the expectation of USN CV intervention. Genda recomended 2 CVs held in reserve for just such a eventuality and additional CAP. It is also not reasonable to assume that under the circumstances of the PH attack that had Halsey or any other Adm. spotted the IJN CVs that he would have held back an attack with the hopes of catching them in the midts of recovery later. More likely he would have sent out an attack immediately. How could he do otherwise? Unlike Midway he would have no Idea how many CVs were out there or if some were actively hunting him at that very moment. He simply would not have the luxury of setting up a *timed* ambush.

How is it that Midway is regarded by you as the rule rather than the exception that it was , but Savo and Tassfronga are correspondingly considered exceptions?

****************************************************
How is it that Midway is regarded by you as the rule rather than the exception that it was , but Savo and Tassfronga are correspondingly considered exceptions?
****************************************************

Because they are inconvenient. It is fairly obvious the Mdeihl has his own little biases.

Also remember that although he has a degree, it isnt in history.
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
mdiehl
Posts: 3969
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

But one question mdiehl: Do you think that some IJN weapon are much better then the allied ones?
Yes. The Mogami class CA was better than comparable US CAs until the introduction of the Baltimore class. Japanese torpedoes were unquestionably tops. The 45mm grenade launcher was the best close support grenade launcher of the war because of its better indirect fire accuracy than the US rifle grenade.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
mdiehl
Posts: 3969
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

First, I believe the Lexington was euiquiped with F2A Buffalos not Wildcats on Dec 7 1941.
That is incorrect. All F2s had been relegated to service units or VMF units by mid 1941.

EDIT: Nope, you're right. 16 F2As on 7 Dec, plus a cargo of Wind Indicators for Midway in addition to her usual strike complement. I was thinking of the F3. My bad.
Second you assume much. The fact is that in 3 out of the 4 carrier battles in the first year of the war the USN a/c failed to sink a single IJN CV coordinated strikes not withstanding.
That'd be:

Coral Sea: 1 IJN CV sunk, one damned near sunk (a miracle really that Shokaku survived at all). The only reason why Zui escaped was a convenient cloudburst masking her from the US strike. The Lexington was hor de combat because of a damage control error. Change the luck just a little and it's USN none sunk, IJN three sunk.

Midway: 4 Japanese CVs sunk.

Santa Cruz: None sunk.

Eastern Solomans: None sunk.

I make it 2 for 4.
Midway was a brilliant success and yes the strikes were timed to *TRY* to catch the IJN carriers in the midst of recovery. However luck did play apart. The IJN had contingency plans (ie 2nd striked armed and ready for naval attack) if not for the fortuitus malfunction of a catapult, it was unlikely the CVs would have been caught in the condition they were historically.
It's a fair opinion. I don't agree. The Japanese CVs at Midway were mission-overtasked. They were setting themselves up for a disaster, even without the US codebreaking events.
How is it that Midway is regarded by you as the rule rather than the exception that it was , but Savo and Tassfronga are correspondingly considered exceptions?
It depends on the conclusions that you want to draw. If you want to argue that combat fatigue can be a factor in determining the outcome of a battle then Savo has alot of import. If one wants to argue that only the Japanese were trained to engage in a torp-only night surface attack and all you can cite from 1942 is Tassafaronga and Savo (and folks who drop Savo into that equation don't know what they're talking about), as some in this forum have in the past, then one is wrong.

The best way to figure out who was capable of what in surface combat is to dispense with the one off battle as metaphor for the entire war, and look at what the combat results offered by way of routine performance and extreme performance on all parts. Then one can correctly identify areas of real strength (like the indisputable superiority of the Type 93a torpedo), real weakness (the Mark 18 torp and Mark XVI exploder), and the various contingent circumstances having nothing to do with training or doctrine that often affected the outcome of battles.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
Chiteng
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Location: Raleigh,nc,usa

re: Mdeihl

Post by Chiteng »

It depends on the conclusions that you want to draw. If you want to argue that combat fatigue can be a factor in determining the outcome of a battle then Savo has alot of import. If one wants to argue that only the Japanese were trained to engage in a torp-only night surface attack and all you can cite from 1942 is Tassafaronga and Savo (and folks who drop Savo into that equation don't know what they're talking about), as some in this forum have in the past, then one is wrong.

************************************************
He cant mean me =) I am well aware that Mikawa used his ships
guns at Savo. None the less Savo DID happen. Trying to pretend it didnt accomplishes NOTHING.

It is obvious that Mdeihl would be perfectly happy to have a game where the IJN has no discernable edge in any way.
He would accept the constant wins by the USN as expected results.

Then in my judgement Mdeihl should simply assert that
WW2 in the Pacific is an ungamable situation.
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
TIMJOT
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Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2001 8:00 am

Post by TIMJOT »

[QUOTE]Originally posted by mdiehl
That'd be:
-----------------------------------------------
Coral Sea: 1 IJN CV sunk, one damned near sunk (a miracle really that Shokaku survived at all). The only reason why Zui escaped was a convenient cloudburst masking her from the US strike. The Lexington was hor de combat because of a damage control error. Change the luck just a little and it's USN none sunk, IJN three sunk.

Midway: 4 Japanese CVs sunk.

Santa Cruz: None sunk.

Eastern Solomans: None sunk.

I make it 2 for 4.
--------------------------------------------------


I did say "CV" not CVLs. I do believe there is a difference. CVLs are slow and realatively unprotected. In case of the Shoho, no CAP and virtually no supporting ships provideing AA. The same USN pilots attacking with virtually the same number of planes attacking the CVs with CAP and supporting AA. scored 2 hits IIRC and failed to sink anything. If you are going to play the just a matter of bad luck game then one can say that The Big E would have been sunk at Santa Cruz if not for a sudden squal, making that battle almost Midwayesqe in favor of the IJN. One could just as easily say that the Yorktown was lucky to escape Coral Sea and the Big E was lucky to escape E.Solomons. There is no indication that under any other circumstances IJN CVs would lite up like roman candles. The Sho, Zui, and Junyo all showed they could take licking and survive to fight another day.


(quote)
---------------------------------------------------
It's a fair opinion. I don't agree. The Japanese CVs at Midway were mission-overtasked. They were setting themselves up for a disaster, even without the US codebreaking events.
---------------------------------------------------

I didnt say code breaking had anything to do with it. The IJN was initially prepared to handle a ambush. The USN actually mis-timed their ambush due to poor recon displine. It took Nagumos indecision, a mechanical malfunction to put it back on the right timeing. I agree that the IJN Midway planed sucked, and that Kido Bhutia was overtaxed. I do not agree that it follows that the same would be true at PH. Again the third attack would be undertaken with the expectation of US CV interference and appropriate measures were planed. It is very doubful that under the circumstances that a USN strike could be timed to catch with decks full. Even if so their would not be bombs, torps and open gas lines strewn on the decks.


(quote)
------------------------------------------------
It depends on the conclusions that you want to draw. If you want to argue that combat fatigue can be a factor in determining the outcome of a battle then Savo has alot of import. If one wants to argue that only the Japanese were trained to engage in a torp-only night surface attack and all you can cite from 1942 is Tassafaronga and Savo (and folks who drop Savo into that equation don't know what they're talking about), as some in this forum have in the past, then one is wrong.
-----------------------------------------------

I do not use code breaking as an excuse for Midway, nor do I fatique, bad intel for Savo, or poor dispositions and bad CC in Tassfronga. They are examples of what can be best expected by the victors but not what should be expected.
Drongo
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Coral Sea

Post by Drongo »

The fun never stops around here. For convenience, I'll just deal with your last post (with your permission of course).

Posted by Mdiehl
Coral Sea: 1 IJN CV sunk, one damned near sunk (a miracle really that Shokaku survived at all).

IIRC, the Shokaku took 3 bomb hits which knocked out flight operations, aircraft repair facilities and started a big fire. The fire was soon brought under control. The whole time, she was able to make good speed and manuever and was in no danger of sinking. What miracle?

The only reason why Zui escaped was a convenient cloudburst masking her from the US strike.

And if she hadn't been masked, what would Zuikaku have faced? The same sized USN strike would now be presented with having to deal with 2 task forces rather than one and the Zuikaku's CAP could now be involved as well. Why would the same number of air attacks as historical result in greater damage to the IJN simply because there is now more targets? All the aircraft that could attack a CV, did attack. Where's the extra hits going to come from to create a worse result than historical? Unless the strikes followed the historical course of concentrating on just one CV, I would suggest any attempt to split the strike to cover both targets would probably have given the IJN a good chance of suffering even less damage.

The Lexington was hor de combat because of a damage control error.

So? The Lexingtons loss was unfortunate but understandable given that damage control lessons had to be learned somewhere. It could happen at that early stage of the war and it did happen. The lessons helped stop a lot of tears later in the war.

Change the luck just a little and it's USN none sunk, IJN three sunk.

Just a little change in luck? I think a result like that would require a miracle.
Have no fear,
drink more beer.
TIMJOT
Posts: 1705
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2001 8:00 am

Post by TIMJOT »

I would also like to add regarding the Lex being loss due to damgage controll error. You could also then argue that 3 of the CVs loss at Midway were due to a "storage controll error". Should we then not count them as legitamate losses?
mdiehl
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Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

I didnt say code breaking had anything to do with it. The IJN was initially prepared to handle a ambush. The USN actually mis-timed their ambush due to poor recon displine. It took Nagumos indecision, a mechanical malfunction to put it back on the right timeing. I agree that the IJN Midway planed sucked, and that Kido Bhutia was overtaxed. I do not agree that it follows that the same would be true at PH. Again the third attack would be undertaken with the expectation of US CV interference and appropriate measures were planed. It is very doubful that under the circumstances that a USN strike could be timed to catch with decks full. Even if so their would not be bombs, torps and open gas lines strewn on the decks.
The IJN was never prepared to handle an ambush. In the absence of radar, having a strike armed to the nines with AP bombs and torpedoes sitting on the decks is just as bad as having one armed to the nines with GP. In the PH op, the Japanese TF did not mount search and did not fly CAP, both for the reason that they did not want their aircraft observed to give away the position of the TF. The only way Nagumo would have launched a 3rd strike was if his subordinates could convince him that US CVs were nowhere nearby. Then he'd have handled the hypothetical 3rd & 4th waves in the same way as the first two... with losses incrementally greater than during wave 2.
I would also like to add regarding the Lex being loss due to damgage controll error. You could also then argue that 3 of the CVs loss at Midway were due to a "storage controll error".
The IJN CVs at Midway would have sunk without all the extra munitions in the bonfire. On Lexington, one man flipped a switch, contrary to extant damage control doctrine, which started a fire. Any comparison between the accidental sinking of Lexington and the hammering taken by K,A,H and S at Midway is inappropriate.

Drongo, IIRC the Shokaku fire required substantial flooding to extinguish. Flooding error (akin to the damage control error on Lexington) resulted in further accidental flooding and Sho almost foundered on the way to Truk. I agree that the US improved damage control substantially reviewing the loss of Lexington. See *** below.

At Coral Sea it was not "the same sized US strike." Because of the squalls around Zui, and the immediate damage to Sho (assumed to be sinking at the time), most of the US strike a/c aborted without finding a target or went for other vessels. If Zui had been seen, there were plenty of bombers available to attack her.


*** From Tony Tulley's Trom for Shokaku at combinedfleet.com. Highlighted emphasis mine.
8 May 1942:
Battle of the Coral Sea. 0907-0915 severely damaged by three bomb hits. One tore open the port bow and started a fire in the forecastle. The second struck the end of the flight deck to starboard. The third hit the starboard side of the rear of the island, damaging gun tubs and the mainmast. Large fires break out, but evaded all torpedoes successfully. Escorted by USHIO and YUGURE, the carrier is detached at once and able to evacuate the battle area at full speed. 108 officers and men are killed by the fires and explosions, and another 40 wounded.

9 May 1942:
Reassigned to CarDiv 5, 1st Air Fleet. Detached to proceed immediately to the homeland at top speed. Now begins a dramatic dash past a cordon of American submarines alerted to intercept the cripple.

12 May 1942:
Rendevous with KUROSHIO, OYASHIO, and HAYASHIO in the Philippine Sea; USHIO and YUGURE released. Final leg home successfully avoids more submarines; however, with the high speeds and gashed bow, the ship takes on so much water she nearly capsizes en route.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
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