FIFTY SHADES OF WiTE: SILLYFLOWER V BRIANG

[sillyflower]

T24 -the last turn of reasonable weather






As you can see, Brian's attacks had v. little success. I didn't do much - just line straightening and going for routs where possible as part of plan 'b#@@*& up (sorry: I mean 'pre-empt') Brian's blizzard O' aka Operation BUBBO

[sillyflower]

moscow. Operation BUBBO continues





1 highlight: his partisans still have a lot to learn about which rail lines they need to focus on.

[sillyflower]

Duplicate

[sillyflower]

middle



same old

[sillyflower]

south at last...........



The most fun part of BUBBO including clearing out the Donets bend again.

He actually broke the pocket in 2 places last turn, so I resealed properly though I had to let 2 inf xx rout out to achieve this. Not taking any chances because of blizzard next turn, but I could not allow a gd cav xx to escape my cooking pots.

[sillyflower]

Thoughts on T24

Losses 8.6K to only 22K but 54 Russian units routed and 77 cav squads were killed - the equivalent of a whole div. Air 59 to 198.

Operation BUBBO was declared to be a great success. There were a lot of cav xx in the front lines and they were attacked wherever possible, and the routs will affect his attack capabilities in the most vulnerable area, for some time to come. 1 problem he will have is that his inf xx TOEs increase greatly with the 41c TOE which is introduced on the 1st blizzard turn. Unless Russian inf xx start the blizzard near 100% TOE, conversion to 41c means that their % TOE goes down to a level where a turn or 2 or combat + attrition can make them become unready ie useless for offensive purposes.

I did find a lot of cav xx everywhere, but no sign of any concentration or stacks refitting and getting ready to become xxx on T25. I can't believe he isn't doing this to some extent, but I like what I see so far.

I have largely ignored his push out of the Crimea so far, using Romanians a a screening force. His forces there are weak, and not easy to supply and reinforce, even if he can afford to. They are no threat to my rail lines and the further he comes out, the easier it will be for the rebuilt panzer forces to use them as target practice in early '42, in the same way that the Mongol Khans used to organise huge hunts to train their forces for mobile warfare. I shall continue to screen them but that's about it.

[sillyflower]

OOb end T24



I will do an analysis of the game so far inc. losses sometime soon so watch this space, or not as you prefer

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

1 highlight: his partisans still have a lot to learn about which rail lines the need to focus on.

they seem to have a fixation with that particular rail spur. Its the same in WiTW, the French partisans just love to blow up the rail link on the Swiss/French border.

A while back I read a very good doctoral thesis on the partisan war and it had some really interesting insights. Not just that the Soviet propaganda of an entire nation united against the invader was false but the amount of deal making between local partisan groups and local occupation forces.

In places, they would more or less agree that they would make an attack at 'Z', or have to do something (or their respective superiors would be suspicious). Equally they would warn each other if fresh formations (which would be more likely to fight) were being sent into the region.

Not to say the reality wasn't grim/awful/almost beyond understanding, but it was quite nuanced. So I'd put the fixation with blowing up a bridge at the far end of small branch line into that category [8D]

[SigUp]

ORIGINAL: loki100

Not just that the Soviet propaganda of an entire nation united against the invader was false but the amount of deal making between local partisan groups and local occupation forces.

So they did that in the East too? Didn't know that. Sounds awfully similar to some stories about the communist partisans in China and the Japanese occupation forces. There they sometimes made deals like ammunition-for-food in-between the hostilities. [8D]

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: loki100

In places, they would more or less agree that they would make an attack at 'Z', or have to do something (or their respective superiors would be suspicious). Equally they would warn each other if fresh formations (which would be more likely to fight) were being sent into the region.

So I'd put the fixation with blowing up a bridge at the far end of small branch line into that category [8D]

I'm very sorry Loki, but this is an unacceptable post.

To belittle a major intelligence success of my security troops in this way is both misleading and defamatory. I suggest, nay insist, that you come to Berlin as my guest for appropriate re-education. The partisans were fooled into this attack by a brave agent who led them into an ambush at a real risk to himself. Fortunately, our man escaped in the confusion.

[M60A3TTS]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
To belittle a major intelligence success of my security troops in this way is both misleading and defamatory. I suggest, nay insist, that you come to Berlin as my guest for appropriate re-education.

But you'll have to take "a shower" first.

[sillyflower]

The losses reveal.

This is the figure at the start of my 4 Dec turn so covers soviet losses inc. T24 + german T25 attrition.

NB about 160K prisoners have become HIWIs in waiting so actual soviet losses in men are higher by that amount

[sillyflower]

unit losses to end T24

[sillyflower]

air end T24

[sillyflower]

I have compared pre-blizzard losses with Russian OOB at the start of the german T1. I forgot to make a note of soviet air losses at the start of T25 so that figure is not exact.

Starting OOB

men 3.976M
arty 42,912
AFVs 17,772
air 6,895


Losses

men 3.741M (after putting HIWIs back)
arty 42,297
AFVs 22,053
air just under 14K

Factory losses:
85 arms
40 HI
26 vehicle

20BA10
12 SU2
20 Lagg 3 11 series
9 LI2 (ie all)
9 LI2 VV (all)
5 IL4
3 PE2R (half of all production)
5 PE3
23 IL10
72 Mig3 (which morph into IL2)


Losses in men and artillery are very close the starting figures - a bit over in men if you deduct those in HQs who are pretty immortal. AFVs well over. As for the red air force, they have had every plane wiped out twice. Brian clearly can't have any air force left, especially after I destroyed so many a/c factories [;)].

[sillyflower]

The arms point crunch

At the end of turn 10 I posted that russian losses would take 1.240M arms points to replace.

I have ddone the same calcultation up to the end of T24 (the last snow turn) inc. the russian turn. A longet time interval, but it includes the 4 mud turns in which losses are far more limited.

The new number is 2,691,995 arms points to replace existing losses.

For the ubergeeks, the biggest losses are from

rifle squads......99,880 lost @ 779,040 pts
122mm howitzers...4039 lost @ 302,925 pts
cav squads........6157 lost @ 252,437 pts (much lower numbers but cost just over x5 rifle squad cost[:)] )
76mm field guns...4490 lost @ 184,090 pts
support squads....84,081 lost @ 168,162 pts
45mm AT guns......9540 lost @ 152,640 pts

I don't know how many arms points Brian has had over these same turns but I expect he must have been running on empty for a while especially as he lost 85 arms factories during this period

It seems that I was therefore able to keep up the same tempo of losses all the way through until the blizzard. That's something the the Germans need to aspire to. If you don't get the kills early, then it becomes much harder later. If you don't keep it up, then the Soviets will bounce back and bite your frozen a## in the blizzard: once the effects of the current beta have been toned down anyway...........

[Peltonx]

Trend Lines of 1.08.00 +
Did not make 25 turns
Mr.X/ Oshawatt/ Shermanny/Pitmen/ Huw Jones/Virabrand/Callistrid/Hermann
Turn 25
Pelton vs BrianG Russian OOB: 6,063,000 On-going
Armament Pts. Destroyed = 19
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 19
Factories: ?

Pelton vs rkimmi Stavka OOB: 6,018,000 GHC Truck losses: 432,138 German Victory turn 60
Armament Pts. Destroyed = 73
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 47
Factories: Leningrad KV-1,BA-10,T-50

Pelton vs smokendave Russian OOB: 5,937,000 Draw turn 211
Armament Pts. Destroyed = 90
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 83
Factories: ?

Pelton vs Chaos45 Stavka OOB: 5,250,000 Russian Victory
Armament Pts. Destroyed = 51
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 19
Factories: T-34 (60) Vehicles (25) SU2 (12)

Pelton vs Hermann Stavka OOB: 4,700,000 House Rule VP German Victory turn 24.
Armament Pts. Destroyed = 133
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 57

Silly vs BrianG Stavka OOB: 4,700,000 Game ongoing.
Armament Pts. Destroyed = 85
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 40

Pelton vs BrianG Russian OOB: 6,063,000
Pelton vs rkimmi Stavka OOB: 6,018,000
Pelton vs smokendave Russian OOB: 5,937,000
Pelton vs Chaos45 Stavka OOB: 5,250,000
Pelton vs Hermann Stavka OOB: 4,700,000
Silly vs BrianG Stavka OOB: 4,700,000

Our games look very much the same other then I managed to take more industry.

I say brian has not lost game yet and you have not won it on to 42- yes on AP crunch but he can work around that and by late 43 it be all good. It did buy you time for sure, but you have to finish the job in 42

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Our games look very much the same other then I managed to take more industry.

I say brian has not lost game yet and you have not won it on to 42- yes on AP crunch but he can work around that and by late 43 it be all good. It did buy you time for sure, but you have to finish the job in 42

Doesn't look like many of your games. I have now posted the factory losses which will hamper his airforce. As we know, that matters more now than when we played the summer under .07. Somewhere between Herman and Chaos I think. A key stat missing from both our tables is manpower. Currently (T27) I have captured 1290, but there are some others that he owns but have 100% damage

I have always said the game is far from won. However, the new combat rules allowing the higher morale units to withdraw or counterattack are doing a lot in favour of the Hun in terms of reduced G and higher R casualties. Action point crunch doesn't really exist now - it's going to have to be about the losses and VP grabbing.

[Peltonx]

The best you can hope for is a draw vs Brian because you just don't understand how game works.

It looks just like Hermann, but I wiped out more industry, because you simply can not rush and pocket as good as I can.

MT is better them me so your in like 5th place behind MT-sapper-TDV-Pelton

We all can pocket units, but your still 2nd class as you don't get how to pocket units+ industry.

basicly you don't understand logistics system

1.0 = WitW logistics system.

I can not wait for 2,0 release, more of the same

loki does the best AAR's, but he is in the dark also.

[Kofiman]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Additional Auto VC:
If the Axis player holds
Leningrad, Moscow, Voronezh and Rostov concurrently at any time in 1941 he wins
an Auto Victory. No need to waste any ones time as we all know the end results based on past games if these cities fall in 1941.