Spending surprise points

[alexvand]

Here's the situation. Two fairly equal Japanese and US fleets. Let's say a couple of LBA fighters, perhaps an LBA Nav or two. 3 or 4 carriers to a side along with a bunch of cruisers and a couple of battleships.

You get surprise. 6 to 10 points or so. How do you spend them and why?

Increase you A2A value?
Decrease his A2A value?
Increase your Anti-Air?
Decrease his Anti-Air?
Increase your damage?
Decrease your damage?

Does which side you are on factor into your decision?
What if you only had 2 or so surprise points? Does that change the decision?

[christo]

Difficult question to answer as so much depends on the strategic situitation. A couple of general guides include
1) the air to air combat table offers diminishing returns once you are in the positive range.
2) the US can (generally) afford to take more losses than JP due to production values but getting those units back into the fight can be more problematic
3) US antiair with "a bunch of cruisers" is likely to significantly blunt JP air to sea factors
4) choosing the targets with surprise points is very efficient (but obviously requires points getting in in the first place)

[AlbertN]

Way too many variables here to actually see what goes through.

If it is Naval-Air combat in general I'd tweak some the ratio with surprise points. I could be "conservative" there with the IJN Carrier force - but usually it's better to keep it around as a threat than to immolate it in a decisive battle unless you've a decent superiority.

Airplanes and pilots I can replace. I can struggle with BPs, but they do not require eons as a carrier.

6 Surprise points could as well equal to +1 / -1 (both eventually) on the air combat; and to keep 2 points to shrink the damage I get eventually.

The first variable is "How many planes are there". The more planes are present, the higher is the benefit of tweaking the air-to-air combat ratio.

Maybe you should artificially make a screenshot of a situation (Using Guadalcanal scenario - just create it by moving the desired assets in the same Sea Zone - and show it) so that people can give their opinions.

[alexvand]

This is a hypothetical situation. I'm just trying to understand better the best way to spend surprise points.

I almost always spend it on Air to Air combat since getting the planes through seems to me to be most important. But I'm wondering if I'm missing anything. Are there reasons to spend the points elsewhere.

[Orm]

I would consider spending 4 points making it a sea battle and 3 points to select a CV as a target.

[AlbertN]

If you have 7 points that is definitely a go - to sink a carrier including the CVP and pilot is a heavy BP loss. Even more so as you can sink the Carrier with the most "dangerous" planes. Even just damaging it disables its ability to operate the CVP.

[paulderynck]

Yes first priority if outgunned in CVPs and with 7 or more surprise is to sink or damage the enemy carrier with the best CVP. If against Japan and doing this to sink the range 7 CVP, it will be exceedingly disheartening to the Japanese player. This can also be done with a sub or even CA interception of a fleet on the way to somewhere that tries to fight through.

Aside from that, Japan should always think about keeping two in reserve to either increase the air-to-sea column or decrease the AA column because US AA values are so prodigious.

But air-to-air combat is normally where you first look, since as you say, what good is a load of surprise if some lucky air combat results devastate or abort your air-to-sea factors. Just be sure you know the column splits, so you don't waste two surprise points getting to a +3 or +5 etc. (or going to -4 or -6 being true if lowering the enemy air-to-air). I think generally it is better to lower the enemy air-to-air if the sides are close to evenly matched, then to raise one's own.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Yes first priority if outgunned in CVPs and with 7 or more surprise is to sink or damage the enemy carrier with the best CVP. If against Japan and doing this to sink the range 7 CVP, it will be exceedingly disheartening to the Japanese player. This can also be done with a sub or even CA interception of a fleet on the way to somewhere that tries to fight through.

Aside from that, Japan should always think about keeping two in reserve to either increase the air-to-sea column or decrease the AA column because US AA values are so prodigious.

But air-to-air combat is normally where you first look, since as you say, what good is a load of surprise if some lucky air combat results devastate or abort your air-to-sea factors. Just be sure you know the column splits, so you don't waste two surprise points getting to a +3 or +5 etc. (or going to -4 or -6 being true if lowering the enemy air-to-air). I think generally it is better to lower the enemy air-to-air if the sides are close to evenly matched, then to raise one's own.

Agreed. If you've got surprise points left, it is usually better for the Japanese to decrease damage and for the US to increase damage, since attrittion favours the Allies, unless you can kill another juicy loaded carrier by again selecting a target during surface combat...

[paulderynck]

And for an air-to-sea attack having an extra three surprise allows picking three targets in a row which is devastating.

No matter how you slice it, the only surprise not worth having is one point worth.

[Mike Dubost]

My virtual decision tree:
1) If >= 4 points, and I'm either very outgunned or have a critical unit that could be lost in air to sea battle (e.g., transport for invasion), then avoid combat.
2) else, if >= 4 points and I have only surface vs carriers, choose battle type.
3) else, if air to sea battle, and I can move the air combat over a column boundary with a 1-pt shift, use it there.
4) else, if air to sea battle, reduce enemy AA
5) else, if >=3 points select target.