The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

...and rumors that Circus is the code name for the 2016 Republican Presidential Primaries are totally unfounded....

[X(]

[DW]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

...and rumors that Circus is the code name for the 2016 Republican Presidential Primaries are totally unfounded....

[X(]

No need for the disclaimer.

After all, you hadn't mentioned any clowns...

[Canoerebel]

5/18/43 and 5/19/43

Battle of Sumatra: Friction strikes for the first time in a long time as SS Shark puts a torp into CVL Zuiho near Sabang. Damage done is slight. Ironically, the information is confounding more than comforting, because it leads me to wonder if a Mini KB is operating here now in place of the Half KB that was here earlier and which I want to be here still.

The Four Kongos bombard Sabang on the 19th, so at least they're where they are supposed to be.

Operation Circus: John's radar screen should be lighting up with blips from India to SWPac to CenPac to NoPac by now. Many of these are YMSs probing for John's "line of sight." But the most serious TFs are two strong surface combat TFs prowling south and east of Diego Garcia. These are dangerous waters, but I'm hoping to draw a Half KB out this way.

I think John is monkeying with SigInt, because the reports of 2nd Div. bound for Rabaul a few days back are now 2nd Div. bound for Batavia. He's either having second thoughts or he's toying with me. One thing's for sure, he's alert. That's why probing on so many fronts might be effective - he's mentally primed to see danger from whatever direction he's most worried about, so let's hope I've fed him the correct misinformation.

[witpqs]

Are you getting any DL on your various TFs?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, quite a few of the "feint" TFs show detection, including some near the Marshalls, some north of Suva, and a big combat TF near Diego (the latter shows 4/4 from a Glen sub and may well draw Half KB if Half KB is out there).

As for the "real thing, things are quiet. One TF did report a 1/0 detection a turn or two back, which was almost certainly a "heavy radio traffic" SigInt report. Hopefully John isn't watching that kind of thing carefully. I should know in two or three days at the most.

[ny59giants]

I have to be the one player monitoring your game the closest. I just finished Jan '43 and what happens here will influence what I'll be able to do and not do vs John. He will strengthen any weakness uncovered in your game in mine. My "Psych Ops" continue through emails and phone calls with him as I pick his brain for his thoughts about your game and his counter moves.

[Canoerebel]

Comment from John sent with the next turn: "Damn. You are sniffing about. I won’t throw a punch until I KNOW!"

[Lecivius]

Friction [:D]

[Canoerebel]

5/20/43

Battle of Sumatra: NavSearch (such as it is) shows lots of enemy bombardment TFs close by, but none hit Sabang today. NavSearch also gives an audio "spotted enemy carriers." Mouseover doesn't back it up, but I think the sighting came from Singapore. The final act will be played out in Sabang over the next few weeks.

John's NavSearch shows a DD near Cocos, a large combat TF near Diego, and a variety of small stuff near Ceylon. He might jump on the Diego sighting. I don't want to lose a CA or more, but drawing a half KB out here would be worth it (at least if it happens in the next seven days).

Operation Circus: All ships are at sea. The carriers are trailing, so there wasn't any CAP the first few days out of port. Now CAP is set at minimal levels "just in case." The Death Star is not equipped to take on a Full KB, but a contest vs. Half KB would be interesting (and probably a bit shattering). On this side of the map, John's NavSearch is picking up blips from near the Marshalls to over near Efate. Soon he may pick up the advance echelon, which includes two slow BBs. I'm crossing my fingers hoping for four more days of quiet. That's probably unlikely. I ought to be happy with two.

[Mike Dubost]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Is it time to start the pool on where the main landing will take place?

I pick Koepang.

Am I too late to put my (imaginary) money on Rangoon?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Dubost

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Is it time to start the pool on where the main landing will take place?

I pick Koepang.

Am I too late to put my (imaginary) money on Rangoon?

Canoerebel already mentioned the Solomons. Shortlands would be smack in the middle, close enough to cause Rabaul headaches. Add Kirakira or Ndeni to anchor the other end of the chain.

[kjnoel]

Are the Solomons really that far from Sumatra? Even if the Allies control the Torres Straits it never feels like fighting on two fronts as the Japanese, although Sabang is stretching that. This game has been about the big reveal so far - whatever else has happened the Japanese lost the strategic initiative very early so deeper into the pacific would be my bet. How would Japan continue to keep Sabang suppressed and crush an invasion around Iwo Jima for example.... as long as LBA can't be decisive the Japanese will really struggle with such heavy Naval losses. If it wasn't Marshals/Jima/Marianas I would breathe a sigh of relief that it could have been worse as the Japanese.

So my vote is for Iwo-Jima, but really glad I'm not the Japanese OR the Allies in this game. Too much at stake! [X(]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: kjnoel

Are the Solomons really that far from Sumatra? Even if the Allies control the Torres Straits it never feels like fighting on two fronts as the Japanese, although Sabang is stretching that. This game has been about the big reveal so far - whatever else has happened the Japanese lost the strategic initiative very early so deeper into the pacific would be my bet. How would Japan continue to keep Sabang suppressed and crush an invasion around Iwo Jima for example.... as long as LBA can't be decisive the Japanese will really struggle with such heavy Naval losses. If it wasn't Marshals/Jima/Marianas I would breathe a sigh of relief that it could have been worse as the Japanese.

So my vote is for Iwo-Jima, but really glad I'm not the Japanese OR the Allies in this game. Too much at stake! [X(]

No, you don't mobilize your entire Pacific force just to take Iwo Jima-a small base that is difficult to defend as there are no supporting bases around it. And too small to be dangerous for Japan. No, if I know my man the Dan, it will be something significant. And, it will be "big" - taking multiple bases with lots of support as he won't be planning on leaving and they might be cut off for a while.

[Canoerebel]

Fun to watch you gentlemen speculate. Bear in mind the one nugget I gave you from the start: "The next op will originate from SWPac."

crsutton is right about Iwo. Too, Iwo's probably as close to Sumatra as the Solomons are.

It's tough for the Allies to go anywhere deep this early in the game, as least if I'm in command. If I tried something like that it would probably just end up as another Sumatra-like campaign. Mid '43 is too early for the Allies (under my command) to get too rambunctious.

But that still leaves alot of opportunities. I think.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: kjnoel

Are the Solomons really that far from Sumatra? Even if the Allies control the Torres Straits it never feels like fighting on two fronts as the Japanese, although Sabang is stretching that. This game has been about the big reveal so far - whatever else has happened the Japanese lost the strategic initiative very early so deeper into the pacific would be my bet. How would Japan continue to keep Sabang suppressed and crush an invasion around Iwo Jima for example.... as long as LBA can't be decisive the Japanese will really struggle with such heavy Naval losses. If it wasn't Marshals/Jima/Marianas I would breathe a sigh of relief that it could have been worse as the Japanese.

So my vote is for Iwo-Jima, but really glad I'm not the Japanese OR the Allies in this game. Too much at stake! [X(]

Canoerebel has more than once mentioned that Operation Circus is being launched from within the Southwest Pacific Theater. Iwo Jima seems more than a bit of a reach from there at this point.

I'm more inclined to predict the Marshalls as the objective for Operation Circus. It is only the middle of 1943. So the objective has to be somewhere defensible and capable of being developed as the base from which to launch future offensive operations. The Marshalls fit that bill nicely. There will be secure lines of communication to the West Coast through Hawaii. They are at extreme range of other Japanese bases. The Allies could threaten multiple axes of advance from them, north to the Marianas or west to the SRA.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Fun to watch you gentlemen speculate. Bear in mind the one nugget I gave you from the start: "The next op will originate from SWPac."

crsutton is right about Iwo. Too, Iwo's probably as close to Sumatra as the Solomons are.

It's tough for the Allies to go anywhere deep this early in the game, as least if I'm in command. If I tried something like that it would probably just end up as another Sumatra-like campaign. Mid '43 is too early for the Allies (under my command) to get too rambunctious.

But that still leaves alot of opportunities. I think.

I can't believe you posted this while I was typing my post on this very subject. I'm going to make the assumption that it is a case of great minds thinking alike rather than just dumb luck.

[Canoerebel]

Poodle, looks like we were broadcasting ont he same frequency.

[Canoerebel]

From John's email and from the titles of his AAR posts and the frequncy of his posts and others to his AAR I know he's wound about as tight as he can be in trying to figure out what's going on. Sometimes I'm convinced he's figured it out. Sometimes I don't think he has the slightest idea. Sometimes I think I should scrub the plan because it's too risky. Sometimes I think I should proceed and let the plan unfold. I've taken some risks here, but up to now they're manageable. In a few more days, I cross an indefinite, uncertain, invisible line where I'm "all in" and the risks rise dramatically.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

ORIGINAL: kjnoel

Are the Solomons really that far from Sumatra? Even if the Allies control the Torres Straits it never feels like fighting on two fronts as the Japanese, although Sabang is stretching that. This game has been about the big reveal so far - whatever else has happened the Japanese lost the strategic initiative very early so deeper into the pacific would be my bet. How would Japan continue to keep Sabang suppressed and crush an invasion around Iwo Jima for example.... as long as LBA can't be decisive the Japanese will really struggle with such heavy Naval losses. If it wasn't Marshals/Jima/Marianas I would breathe a sigh of relief that it could have been worse as the Japanese.

So my vote is for Iwo-Jima, but really glad I'm not the Japanese OR the Allies in this game. Too much at stake! [X(]

Canoerebel has more than once mentioned that Operation Circus is being launched from within the Southwest Pacific Theater. Iwo Jima seems more than a bit of a reach from there at this point.

I'm more inclined to predict the Marshalls as the objective for Operation Circus. It is only the middle of 1943. So the objective has to be somewhere defensible and capable of being developed as the base from which to launch future offensive operations. The Marshalls fit that bill nicely. There will be secure lines of communication to the West Coast through Hawaii. They are at extreme range of other Japanese bases. The Allies could threaten multiple axes of advance from them, north to the Marianas or west to the SRA.

I like CentPac, but it's also got a lot of very small islands. Easy to defend, and if Japan wants to fight there, gets them using a lot of fuel. It's just hard to use them to mount a next stage op. The bases don't build out big enough.

[Lecivius]

"In chess, when your opponent has you beaten, it is checkmate."

"Not chess, Mr. Spock. Poker"