The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[witpqs]

Any base forces at all? Just the divisions and AA?

[desicat]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: desicat

Hopefully this doesn't turn into a Greyjoy repeat where the shear number of A/C involved "break" the game.

I hope you have a resupply/reinforce TF ready to run into Sabang just in case John drops his guard when reacting to Carnival.

The key to Sabang is BBs. If John pulls them (he won't, but if he did) then I could save Sabang. Only BBs can close the airfield. If the airfield isn't closed, I can post fighters there, my supply is safe until I can get more in, etc.

If I could've timed Circus a month later, coming with 10 divisions and 20 carriers, John would've had no choice but to pull his BBs from Sumatra. Sumatra is important, but nothing like Hokkaido. But I just couldn't squeeze out that extra month. As it is, I think John will keep some of his assets in Sumatra and finish that campaign within two or three weeks. But I am prepared to act if there's a reasonable window.

I think you will get your window - be ready!

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Any base forces at all? Just the divisions and AA?

Lots of everything: 700+ ships carrying 650k supply, 6+ divisions, tanks, artillery, AA, engineers, combat engineers, naval support, HQ, NoPac HQ, Air HQ, minelayers, ACM, AKE, AE.

[poodlebrain]

You fooled me completely. I never considered Hokkaido as a realistic objective for Operation Circus due to your HR restriction on strategic bombing. The Japanese get 6 months to focus their airpower on neutralizing Hokkaido without worrying about defending industrial centers, and you forfeit 6 months of the greatest utility of owning Hokkaido. I hope you prove me wrong in the value I ascribed to being a base for strategic bombing.

[Canoerebel]

Even without strategic bombing Hokkaido is immensely important. Lots of IJA troops arrive there, some ships arrive there, and it's an oil and resource center (include Sikhalin Island in that factor). In Allied hands it would be very difficult for John to attack by air (each major base would get at least five big AA units, and John's reluctant to attack Sabang right now which has just three). Most importantly it would compel John to send the Kaigun (already tired after sustained long use, some ships blowing smoke every time I see them) all the way across the map to face rested and upgraded Allied ships fighting under their own air umbrella and with lots of friendly minelayers around.

I'm not interested in harvesting strat points at this point in the game. I'm interested in the Kaigun and fighting it effectively.

Now, just to make sure I'm not misleading you gents, my Circus plans have been modified due to recent developments. I'll be explaining what happened and what I'm doing about it after I get the next turn.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Any base forces at all? Just the divisions and AA?

Lots of everything: 700+ ships carrying 650k supply, 6+ divisions, tanks, artillery, AA, engineers, combat engineers, naval support, HQ, NoPac HQ, Air HQ, minelayers, ACM, AKE, AE.

Oh, you're going in light. [X(]

Good one! [:D]

[JocMeister]

Wow, just..wow! Now that is gutsy! [X(]

Is it okay to be a tad pessimistic about the chances of success?

[JeffroK]

That was my thought on your target.

My fear is that the Kuriles provide a base to the north for JIII to relay his forces through, seeing your map and the red dots of the Aleutians expands his ability.

IMVHO, one of the reasons Sabang is failing is your inability to reinforce, made worse by not grabbing the Andamans strongly, allowing JIII to control the vital sealanes between India/Ceylon & Sumatra.

But, this assuming JIII is good at this, something I'm having second thoughts about.

[obvert]

Looks like an impressive fleet, definitely an All-in move. This kind of decisive action and dramatic flair are the reasons I too got hooked on this game due to one of canoerebel's AARs, seems like ages ago now. He weaves a complex and mysterious tale of intrigue, deception, courage with a good measure of in your face bravado as an operation takes hold. Its a good ride and a great community gathering point.

A small concern is a lack of subs both to scout and to swarm any resistance from the IJN. I do see a trail of what I assume are supply carrying boats in the IO between Sumatra and Ceylon. I only see a few green spots out in front of your fleets. Maybe they are there and waiting to move forward?

Anyways. Fingers crossed for you, and God Speed!

[Lowpe]

The big move! More aggressive fighting early. The new Allied counter strategies and tactics to face the rampaging Japanese Empire. Here we have a super strong Japan (in Navy at least) and the answer is a super focused early Allied aggressiveness.

You have to love how the tactics evolve.[:D]

Missed, by the local historians, to a large degree, is the victory point margin. According to CR, Japan is up by 17K: 42K to 25K.


Also rarely mentioned: the huge resource stockpile that is Hokkaido; the engine factories on Hokkaido.

And with that I am going to bid this AAR a fond farewell, so that somewhere down the road I can provide help to John and not break any operational security or understanding of the Allied position reading this AAR has given me. Mostly, I will be a Japanese cheerleader for a good long while.

I will hang around for a day or two, but my allegiance here is with Japan and having suffered something like this, I think I will forgo the pleasure of this AAR to help John who is badly behind the 3-1 VP margin in AAR posts.[;)]

Good luck CR! Once again, you have made a masterful AAR.[&o] I look forward to reading the rest of it.

[Encircled]

Good luck!

[Bearcat2]

Dropped in to thank you for your AAR, interesting strategy and IMHO, gutsy. Good Luck and may the algorithms be with you.

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A word of apology about OpSec and misinformation etc.

Most of you guys (especially longtime comrades like crusutton, obvert, and many others) have long suspected or known that I filled Operation Circus with misleading information for OpSect reasons (more about that in a later post, but I should state clearly immediately that I wasn't concerned about intentional breaches of security).

Most of you have been through this kind of thing before. Hopefully most of you like it as part and parcel of a very public game and enjoy the whole ride. But if any of you feel misled or cheated, I owe you apologies. I can only say that I have discussed this at length with a thread brother and will give it careful thought before I do it again.

I've been employing lawyer-like parsing of words, willing to tell the truth but not necessarily the whole truth...and who sometimes finds himself veering far from the truth in doing so. Again, I apologize.

No apologies necessary at all.

It's all been part of the fun of this great AAR trying to guess what your real intentions are behind the tit-bits, nuggets, partial truths, feints and diversions.

It's the classic AAR's such as this that persuaded me, after a long time following the forum, to finally take the plunge and buy the game. Keep up the good work and good luck with the invasion.

[JohnDillworth]

Color me skeptical. This is simply a race between the full KB and getting a couple of airfields up and running. The KB is moving through interior lines. The CVL's and CV's might be bringing up the rear, but the CV's and there er lots of them can move quickly. might be a bit short of escorts, and certainly BB's to soak up bombs, but they will be here in numbers quicker than you like

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: desicat

ORIGINAL: JeffK

The sacrifice on Sumatra & Malaya are only worthwhile if CIRCUS is 150% effective, disrupting JIII defences and resulting in substantial CV losses (5+ CV sunk).
The 7+ Divisions, large numbers of non combat support units, Shipping and hundreds (thousands) of aircraft ARE a substantial loss, swapping them for some South Pacific/DEI malaria ridden swamp is not going to win the game.

Comparisons of Longstreet, Jackson, Lee or even McClellan are wrong, its the tactics of Haig or Navarre.

Equally the strategy of JIII has been odd, while he has you by the throat on Sumatra he should have been using his 15+ CV to run around smashing Allied positions, damn the Fuel loss. win the war in 1943.

CIRCUS is a month late, Sabang is lost so diversions will not help, the new front will get 100% of JIII's attention so you cant set up another "Anzio" I hope CIRCUS results in a reaction which gathers so much attention that other fronts can move forward and that by good management or luck, results in massive losses to JIII's empire, but I fear those 7+ Divisions will be sorely lost

Japan in this Mod is hyper powerful. The date of the last turn was 5/24/43 and the Allies have a toe hold in Sumatra, are driving north in Oz - with another major invasion (or 2?) imminent, what has Japan accomplished?

Take a look at all the other current AAR's, the Japanese players have fine tuned the game to the point where India is routinely invaded and Oz is heavily invested on both coasts. Heck. Mandrake is currently barely holding Tasmania and Southern Oz.

CR's early attack stopped the Japanese expansion cold in this game. Of course the costs were going to be heavy, but with Allied production finally kicking in the Japanese are doomed. The Japanese perimeter that is way smaller than normal, their naval losses have been high (except for CV's), upgrades have been delayed, and their ground forces are poorly positioned and probably have poor prep levels for their locations and possible destinations. No, this has been a major victory for CR, he just needs to finish it out.

I hate to miss the bandwagon here, but as someone who has played both sides I can tell you that the farther the Japanese go in 42-43 the better it is for the Allies, regardless of scenario. Even this one doesn't give help to the economy, and Japan stops fighting when supply and fuel run out. I've been run out of supply and fuel after doing some of the things you'e talking about in 42, and in spite of all of the flash and bang of these exciting early campaigns, it's not the best strategy for the IJ to last as a competitive force late.

India, OZ, the forays into Alaska and strategically bombing the West Coast, those are all about trying for AV. That's fine, and it's fun, but it is not a poor strategy to keep a solid defensible and historical perimeter. Check with Pax Mondo, Mike Solli and a number of other players who pay attention to the economic side of things. It's a game in itself. More territory and farther flung battles don't help it stay healthy.

Fighting and sinking ships and taking points off the Allies in 45 and lasting to keep a draw or squeek out a win in 46, those are real accomplishments! [;)]

My pompoms will come out for both players if they take this game into 46!

Yep, good point. The problem is that really very few Japanese players have gone deep into a game and tend to live for the day. Most games just don't run that long. India and OZ look like good places to attack but the fact is they just open up a front where the Allies can just start grinding away at Japanese resources. The Allies need not win there but just don't lose. It makes much more sense to seize locations where you can take them quick and dirty and then build up the defenses and amass resources. It is a given that the Japanese player has to fight constantly in China. But historically they just could not afford another long protracted land campaign-even if they had the troops to do so. That probably holds true for the game.

Frankly, if Dan had not accepted that HR that prohibits strategic bombing of John's oil centers this campaign would have been long over.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Color me skeptical. This is simply a race between the full KB and getting a couple of airfields up and running. The KB is moving through interior lines. The CVL's and CV's might be bringing up the rear, but the CV's and there er lots of them can move quickly. might be a bit short of escorts, and certainly BB's to soak up bombs, but they will be here in numbers quicker than you like

Well the thing is getting ashore before KB makes it there. Once ashore the Allied fleet can pull back for a while. With the way AA now works as long as Dan is ashore he can build up his bases and does not need his fleet around until the bases are developed. John will need boots on the ground to counter Dan and I think he will be short there for a while. Mid 43 and the Allied ground force is a completely different factor. If Dan puts a lot of tank units ashore (and I have no doubt he will) then John is going to need a dozen full division at the least to take him on.

From a game mechanics viewpoint, this sort of operation in 1943 should be all but impossible to do. But we all know what the game allows and I think this might work out well. Only factor that is an unknown to me is John's super fleet. Can he just use it to bull his way out of his mess? Dunno..

[JohnDillworth]

Can he just use it to bull his way out of his mess? Dunno..

If he can figure it out he can put the KB between home and landings. nothing gets in or out without a fight. Well, thats the way I'd play it. John can bring a lot of aircraft quite quickly. advantage of interior lines

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Color me skeptical. This is simply a race between the full KB and getting a couple of airfields up and running. The KB is moving through interior lines. The CVL's and CV's might be bringing up the rear, but the CV's and there er lots of them can move quickly. might be a bit short of escorts, and certainly BB's to soak up bombs, but they will be here in numbers quicker than you like

Ii think this is a very good point because the sheer mass of troops and equipment that CR has brought along will take quite some time to unload. Break out the popcorn!

[poodlebrain]

Don't get me wrong, I like Hokkaido as an objective. I'd just like it more with the ability to strategic bomb Japanese oil centers, factories and industry on Honshu. There are so many tempting targets within easy range of B-24s. It just seems unfair that the Japanese do not have to commit any airpower to defending them. They would demand significant numbers of fighters for the task that will now be able to wear away your base defenses and protection for your shipping.

The AA for base defense is nice, but it cannot replace air cover entirely, and you are handicapped by an unrealistic condition imposed by an arbitrary HR. In hindsight I think the HR has been the only thing that has prevented Japan from conceding defeat. And it has certainly had a significant impact on the strategies and tactics adopted by the Japanese, at least that is my perception. If you could strategic bomb oil centers Magwe would be in ruins, and that would have impacted how Japan defended Burma. The Battle of Sumatra would have had a different course as the Japanese would have had to concentrate on protecting Palembang before being able to begin their counterattack.

Your success despite these handicaps speaks well of your play. I have a hard time expressing my admiration for how successful you have been in exploiting your knowledge of your opponent's playing style to overcome the advantages the Japanese get from the scenario and HR you voluntarily accepted.

[Canoerebel]

You guys are making a lot of good points. And there's enough healthy skepticism to reinforce the notion that AAR readers are not "yes men."

Which, in this case, makes me feel better. For Hokkaido is no longer the target. I think John knows or strongly suspects now, so I'll go into some detail in just a minute.