The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Of those island groups I mentioned, the Aleutians are by far closest to Japan's vitals. Usually the Aleutians are too strongly defended or the risks to great for the reward. But in rare cases, such as think (I think), where the Allied can get the drop on Japan, this region is critical.

Burma is in a different category since it's mainly a land and air campaign. Burma opens up lots of opportunities to further conquest, whereas the Aleutians can be dead end if Japan properly attends to defenses further in. But, in this case, just forcing John to react and to properly defend his interior is worthwhile. The more uncertain a fighter gets - the more he shifts from foot to foot - the more opportunities there are to hit. I think that's what's going to happen here.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Of those island groups I mentioned, the Aleutians are by far closest to Japan's vitals. Usually the Aleutians are too strongly defended or the risks to great for the reward. But in rare cases, such as think (I think), where the Allied can get the drop on Japan, this region is critical.

Burma is in a different category since it's mainly a land and air campaign. Burma opens up lots of opportunities to further conquest, whereas the Aleutians can be dead end if Japan properly attends to defenses further in. But, in this case, just forcing John to react and to properly defend his interior is worthwhile. The more uncertain a fighter gets - the more he shifts from foot to foot - the more opportunities there are to hit. I think that's what's going to happen here.

This took a lot of effort I know .. analyzing all the SigInt reports, mapping units, and detecting a weak NorPac front .. I love it.
So I am thinking the NorPac strategy is one of opportunity .. If the IJ leave the door open .. then that route is far more valuable route for the Allies then other routes ...
Nice ...

[JeffroK]

This is not the end of the war. It is, as one American officer said after Guadalcanal, the end of the beginning.

More like Churchill after 2nd Alamein.

edit
Now this is not the end.
It is not even the beginning of the end.
But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
Winston Churchill

http://www.winstonchurchill.org/resourc ... -beginning

[JeffroK]

Swapping them for some South Pacific/DEI malaria ridden swamp change to Wind and Snow covered rocks is not going to win the game.

Whats the plan after this, a left jab to make JIII run back to the DEI or are you going to slug it out again?

I would be interested where those "missing" Divisions are headed.

[JocMeister]

I think the Aleutians are a brilliant move at this point. Even if he counter attacks with everything he has (I bet he will) you will have 100 days of prepp to prepare for the onslaught. SLs also prevent John from using superior numbers in a meaningful way. Without looking at the map I think SLs are very low up there?

And once the allies are established...he will have to garrison Hokkaido. That will eat up a tremendous amount of troops.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I think the Aleutians are a brilliant move at this point. Even if he counter attacks with everything he has (I bet he will) you will have 100 days of prepp to prepare for the onslaught. SLs also prevent John from using superior numbers in a meaningful way. Without looking at the map I think SLs are very low up there?

And once the allies are established...he will have to garrison Hokkaido. That will eat up a tremendous amount of troops.

I dont think its bad, just not brilliant.

And why worry about SL if you can starve them out, JIII has a dozen or more CV available plus a large number of BB/BC. Once Sabang falls he will also get back 3-4 very experienced Divs to block future moves. Hokkaido & the Kuriles should have been garrisoned anyway, maybe a bit more now but never left bare.

The Aleutians are good if (as I mentioned in crossing) a left jab gets JIII runnig back south, and I hope there are plenty of Subs between the Aleutians and JIII's forces.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Of those island groups I mentioned, the Aleutians are by far closest to Japan's vitals. Usually the Aleutians are too strongly defended or the risks to great for the reward. But in rare cases, such as think (I think), where the Allied can get the drop on Japan, this region is critical.

Burma is in a different category since it's mainly a land and air campaign. Burma opens up lots of opportunities to further conquest, whereas the Aleutians can be dead end if Japan properly attends to defenses further in. But, in this case, just forcing John to react and to properly defend his interior is worthwhile. The more uncertain a fighter gets - the more he shifts from foot to foot - the more opportunities there are to hit. I think that's what's going to happen here.

In the past, I was not a big fan of the Aleutians as a major theater. But with a minor and unheralded change in the last patch the North can be significant. The reason is that with the Aleutians cleared there there is a big clear ocean path to the Japanese mainland. With the recent patch it is now much easier to carry out a large carrier raid against strategic targets and if a Japanese industrial city is left weakly defended it would not be too easy to run in and smash up some aircraft and engine production facilities. An early grab of the Northern Islands forces a wise Japanese player to hold some of his air and AA assets back. However, with stacking limits it is tougher to launch major amphibious operations from the North.

[Lecivius]

Dang, I was gonna give myself a cookie if you actually got to the HI (that was my guess [;)] ) That would have knocked the stuffing out of Johns entire game [:D]

[Canoerebel]

5/31/43

Operation Circus: The Allied landings continue in good order, unmolested by the enemy. Here's a synopsis from west to east, the direction that the campaign is unfolding:

Ulak: 100 AV ashore in the form of a RCT. LSTs willl land supply tonight.
Adak: Deliberate attack by 9th Aus. Div. almost overcomes five forts. This base with its big airfield will fall tomorrow.
Atka: Held by 4th Marine Raiders, who will now disperse in small contingents to seize dot-base islands.
Umnak: Landings commence here preceeded by several big bombardments. The defenses are more meager than expected - once again just a naval guard unit rather than the expected mixed brigade. 2nd Marines and two base forces are ashore. This base might not fall for several days (due to fort level), but it'll fall soon.
Dutch Harbor: No enemy garrison. Landings commenced here, including a very big naval support unit. This base will fall tomorrow. The hope is that the nav support, level three port, and AKE/AEs (inbound) will allow re-arming of the BBs.
Akutan: No enemy garrison. It'll be a few days before I have forcs available to land here.
Cold Bay: The last enemy base is helded by an assault division (Karfuto or something like that). 41st USA Div. is inbound. This might be a relatively tough nut, but it's proximity to existing big airfields at Kodiak and other islands (also proximity for bombardments) should make it doable in short order.

No sign of enemy combat ships or carriers. They're probably inbound. My fleet carriers are stationed just SE of Adak and will remain there another turn or two. The CVEs are covering the landings at Umnak and downed three Bettys, the only enemy air raid of the day.

Battle of Sumatra: Enemy bombardments have grown more sporadic and ineffective. The runway is 100% operational and service damage is down to 76%. I think BBs are inbound tonight. If they don't trash the field, I might load it up tomorrow with fighters and some bombers, including Beuforts with torps, plus perhaps some 4EB to hit Singers. But I need to think this through - making clear to John that Sabang is an offensive threat will only renew or refresh his opinion that it needs to be vanquished. But if I let it lie quietly he might not be quite as aggressive or strong. Eight enemy units are in the hex now and will bombard tomorrow. The Allies army is 1600 AV (and growing daily as disablements recover). I bet John has 5 or 6 divisions with some HQ or arty. Supply is holding steady due to the decrease in enemy activity of late. There is still the slimmest of chances that Sabang could hold out - and it was a close thing even if it falls. The Allied lodgement will have held at least seven months. Had I another month to work with, I'm pretty certain it would have held.

[Encircled]

Don't overthink it, if you can get aircraft to Sabang, get them there.

He's going to have left holes for you to exploit and it forces him to think about multiple vectors. The more he's got to think about, the more likely it is that he'll make a mistake.

[paullus99]

If he overreacts to your northern adventure, any chance you might be able to shove some supply or reinforcements into Sabang?

[Canoerebel]

Encircled, I think that's good advice.

Paullus, reinforcements really aren't needed. The limiting factor is supply (still good at 53k, but starting to get low). I have seven divisions (plus several RCT, tanks, etc.). Most of these are at half strength or so but quickly recover disabled squads (due to supply and HQ). I long ago turned off replacements to conserve supply, but would get big boosts quick if supply wan't an issue.

[witpqs]

Get aircraft in there, yes, but not 4EB IMO. Too fragile (service rating-wise) for the situation.

53k supply will evaporate much faster than you like once ground combat starts. Get some in if you can. That mitigates in favor of fighters and DB/TB. They can even have secondary missions to ground bomb IJ troops at Sabang (clear terrain, right?).

You know John's psychology far better than I, but do you really think he will so much forget about Sabang if you don't do anything there? Seems like a plan over-relying on him cooperating. I say "bring in supply and air cover!".

[Canoerebel]

That Allies are running a long string of supply subs from Koggala to Sabang (and have been for months).

Getting supply in by ship is going to be tough, only because John holds the surrounding islands with big airfields. So it's possible but it's probably not a long term solution. I doubt the Allies will have enough success to materially alter the supply situation. So if John keeps his BBs in theater, there's really no hope and using any more xAKs isn't worth it. But if he pulls back the BBs (unlikely but remotely possible) I'll give it a few tries.

[traskott]

Dunno if its feasible but 5k of supply worht 10 xAKs.... Besides, remember, bad weather can give u some room to maneouver.

[BillBrown]

You can always tee him off a bit, use single small xAKLs. Often a single one will not be targeted by aircraft.
He does hate single ship TFs.

[Canoerebel]

6/1/43

Operation Circus: The Allies now have Ulak, Adak (fell on a 7:1 attack), Atka, and Dutch Harbor. Adak is the anchor of the defensive line at the moment, but Dutch is key in that it will allow BBs and subs to replenish. Umnak will take a few more days to fall. Amphibs are heading to Cold Bay, the final remaining contested landing. No enemy air or sea attacks today.

Enemy carriers sighted west of Midway - showing CVEs, but clearly John is sending alot (he wouldn't send just Mini KB into waters occupied by Death Star, naturally). I should have two or three more days clear. By then I just don't think John can dare to raid into the newly conquered region. But his highest priority is to stop the Allies from going further, though by now he must suspect that's not the plan.

SigInt continues to reveal the extent of his unease, with 15th Div. now reported headed to Attu (which is already garrisoned by 7th Div.). So John's going to tighten up his Aluet and other NoPac defenses and is bringing his carriers.

Battle of Sumatra: See combat report below for the unpleasant news John recieved when he bombarded -his losses unusually high. But it did drop supply from 53k to 49k. If only...if only! I'm trying to get more supply, but's its just going to be nearly impossible.

The Four Kongos bombarded today, again to minimal effect. Therefore, I'm staging my airforce forward for the first time since February. Fgihters, torpedo bombers, dive bombers, 2EB and 4EB. The torp and divebombers are set to naval strike. Mitchells are set to naval strike with ground strike at Sabang secondary. Bolos set to hit Georgetown port. 24 B24s set to hit Singers port.

Here's the combat report:

Ground combat at Sabang (44,70) Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 55724 troops, 505 guns, 273 vehicles, Assault Value = 1913
Defending force 66718 troops, 1485 guns, 1727 vehicles, Assault Value = 1606

Japanese ground losses:
1107 casualties reported
Squads: 36 destroyed, 56 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Guns lost 18 (3 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
16th Division
38th Division
14th Division
5th Division
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
21st Ind. Engineer Regiment
34th Ind. Engineer Regiment

Defending units:
182nd Infantry Regiment
20th Indian Division
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
193rd Tank Battalion
37th Infantry Division
132nd Infantry Regiment
2nd USMC Parachute Battalion
763rd Tank Battalion
503rd Parachute Regiment
18th British Division
27th Infantry Division
164th Infantry Regiment
99th Indian Brigade
32nd Infantry Division
21st Marine Rgt /1
102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
9th Marine Rgt /5
1st RM Heavy AA Regiment
2nd Ceylon H AA Regiment
205th Field Artillery Battalion
78th Light AA Regiment
Southwest Pacific
8th Belfast Heavy AA Regiment
804th Engineer Aviation Battalion
221st USN Base Force
198th Field Artillery Battalion
97th Coast AA Regiment
15th USN Naval Construction Battalion
175 Wing
VII US Bomber Cmnd

[HansBolter]

He doesn't have enough artillery to win bombardment duels with you.

I have seen the same thing with the Russians in Focus Pacific.

You get 1100 to 1500 guns in a siege hex and the enemy loses considerable killed squads every day.

You have 1485 guns to his 505.

You really need artillery shells badly!

[Canoerebel]

The vast majority of those guns are AA.

[CaptBeefheart]

Can we see a picture of this brilliant operation? (Edit: I mean Circus, of course.)

Cheers,
CC