The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Jeff, most of my subs are posted to the south, where John stumbled upon them inbound (thus far they've claimed an AO and two xAK, so they're doing their jobs). I have another line between Ominato and the Kuriles, waiting to pick off ships that retire. More are inbound now. As each patrol returns from the western Pacific to Midway or Pearl, I re-target them, with a hefty number heading to NoPac.

[Canoerebel]

A word to newcomers about John III and me: We have a very long history going all the way back to Uncommon Valor days. We've faced each other in UV, WitP, and AE. We are close friends outside the game and remain so to this day. If I dropped into his store tomorrow, we would hug with laughs and tears over all that we've shared and experienced through the years. But inside the game we have the fiercest of rivalries, stoked by long-held grievances. John doesn't like my use of picket ships. I don't like what I perceive to be his taunting and goading. But those grievances exist only within the game. I can only state that for certain on my part, of course, but I am absolutely certain that John wouldn't hock a loogie into my sandwich if I showed up at the LaSalle Subway tomorrow and ordered a sandwich. Some day he and I will meet and it will be like to brothers. But tomorrow, I want every ship in the Japanese navy to spontaneously explode while John quivers at the might of the Allied military and its awesome prowess.

[Canoerebel]

John just sent an email to this effect: "[Next turn]should be FULL of fireworks!"

I won't know until tomorrow what he's envisioning. I just hope I haven't miscalculated myself into a carrier clash somehow. I don't think that's possible, though. Maybe he has an invasion force set for Hawaii or San Francisco or Ceylon.

[Canoerebel]

Mouseover shows KB has 900 aircraft (that number subject to FOW). Death Star has 720.

Most unlikely that John would seek to give battle anywhere near Kodiak.

Another factor is combat TFs. The Allies have three fast BBs and either for or five slow BBs. I think John has one BB (Musashi) and maybe two CBs (or is it BCs?).

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A word to newcomers about John III and me: We have a very long history going all the way back to Uncommon Valor days. We've faced each other in UV, WitP, and AE. We are close friends outside the game and remain so to this day. If I dropped into his store tomorrow, we would hug with laughs and tears over all that we've shared and experienced through the years. But inside the game we have the fiercest of rivalries, stoked by long-held grievances. John doesn't like my use of picket ships. I don't like what I perceive to be his taunting and goading. But those grievances exist only within the game. I can only state that for certain on my part, of course, but I am absolutely certain that John wouldn't hock a loogie into my sandwich if I showed up at the LaSalle Subway tomorrow and ordered a sandwich. Some day he and I will meet and it will be like to brothers. But tomorrow, I want every ship in the Japanese navy to spontaneously explode while John quivers at the might of the Allied military and its awesome prowess.

95% of the readers of this AAR will never meet or experience John in real life so essentially, the John of the game is the John that we know. I dont think anyone has expressed any opinions about John in real life. It is all in the perspective ;]

[Encircled]

hock a loogie into my sandwich

English translation - "goz in my butty"

[Canoerebel]

6/6/43

Operation Circus: KB - and I think its all the fleet carriers and CVLs - approaches Dutch from the SW and unleashes a hail of strike aircraft that hit various (and nearly all low value LST, LCI and xAK [the low value doesn't mean low utility, ofcourse]) targets at Dutch, Akutan and nearby. These are a hodgepodge of ships that remained "behind" for various reasons - there were several LCI TFs that were having trouble unloading due to some vagary in the code. I was trying different routines (cease unloading, then resume unloading, or creating new TFs to shake loose the units they were carrying). I think there may have also been a few TFs that either didn't get orders or declined orders I thought I'd given them to stop unloading, weigh anchor, and get out of Dodge.

John forgot to advance the turn, so I don't yet know how many ships were lost.

I was hoping he'd target Dutch Harbor's port and face the AA, but I don't think that happened. Strikes of shipping at Dutch didn't encounter flak and therefore must've hit ships that were still non-disbanded.

I think I also lost some engineer units, though I have way more of everything than needed (since Hokkaido was a much vaster operation than the Aleutians).

Most of the high-value ships are now either at Kodiak or heading east and then south to West Coast ports. No AKA, APA, or AP were lost in the operation (yet). I don't think I've lost any AK, though I want to see if the one that was left at Dutch made it out.

7th USA Div., originally slated for Sapporo and unneeded in the Aleutians, is nearly back to West Coast.

No carrier action today. Probably I'll station them behind Kodiak tomorrow to see if John moves aggressively. I don't think he will even though KB has all the bearing of Death Star on steroids.

Enemy sweeps targeted Adak, protected by two USAAF squadrons (P40K and P38G) and come out much the worse.

Battle of Sumatra: The Kongos visited Sabang and Japanese LBA hit an incoming xAK supply TF hard. No attacks at Sabang. A probing bombardment on the west road. I bet John will try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow.

Elsewhere: In addition to 7th USA Div. returning to West Coast, Peanut 2 (7th Australian Div.) is now at Pearl Harbor, Penaut 1 (will be on map in a couple of days) and Peanut 4 (USA 40th Div. will reach the Canal Zone in a day or two). So the Allies will have four divisions available for operations in CenPac or SoPac. Nothing is imminent, but the hope is that I can separate Death Star, get a head start, and leave KB behind in the Aluetians, long enough to move. But it will take me ten days or so to get assault shipping from Circus Theater to Pearl and vicinity.

7th Indian Div. is inbound to Eastern US from Aden and will arrive in 20 days. This unit is prepping for Amchitka, which recon shows to be held by 12k troops (again, I'm assuming this may be a mixed brigade). Whether and when such a move takes places is dependent on many circumstances.

But, as you can see, the Allies used four months of movement to "steal a march" on Japan and shift the whole weight of it's mobile armed power across the world. John is now reacting sharply to meet that threat by moving the weight of his own mobility that way. And if things go just right, even as he's moving north, I'll be heading south.

And so, the Allies wrested the Middle Aluetians from John at low coast, seizing three garrisoned bases with big airfields (Adak, Umnak, Cold Bay) plus three other bases that have important potential (Ulak, Dutch Harbor, and Akutan). Despite these big airfields, enemy opposition was slight and the cost has been quite modest.

Circus will enter a new phase now as John seeks to staunch (or perhaps to counterattack) and as I await the right conditions to consolidate the gains, begin building airfields, and convert the bases for offensive air and sea use. But I won't do that while KB on Sterioids is prowling.

[Lecivius]

KB right now would be Death Star on Steroids. He'll also have a smaller, but still potent, carrier group covering Sabang supported by LBA. That dovetails with with the build-out of RA, and was one of my major concerns with Circus that your operation might be a bit to close and thus get clobbered by this souped up samurai sucker punch.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, there's a Mini KB stationed at Georgetown. I have three CVE/CVL there - not enough to tangle with Mini KB nor to try to hammer in supply TFs.

And, yeah, your concerns (and those voiced by others) about KB on Steroids were well founded. Death Star vs. Steroid KB would not be a good thing at the moment. But things are about to change quickly - an RN CV at San Fran will be available in a week, I think two Essex class arive in a month, and I think two CVL do also. And another CVE or two might be on the way.

So maybe in a month Death Star would be sufficient to take on Steroid KB if I could orchestrate it in waters that were far from the nearest decent enemy port and if I prepositioned subs to stand between those enemy flattops and the best ports.

[Canoerebel]

So, what if I had proceeded to invade Hokkaido? I think I would now be wishing I hadn't. I'm 99% sure that Hokkaido was wide open. The Allied force was mighty in terms of support troops (especially engineers and AA) and supply. My airforce would have been fine. But I didn't have enough infantry. I would have encountered some problems that would have slowed me down a bit. And there was a risk that I couldn't move fast enough or with enough power to take Hakodate, which would have been fatal. But, above all, the KB would now be in position and Hokkaido would be like a "colony" in deepest space, forced to stand or fall on it's own for many months. I think it would have turned into a costly Sumatra II, and I think the cost to my good transports (AKA, APA, etc.) would have been very high.

[Bearcat2]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So, what if I had proceeded to invade Hokkaido? I think I would now be wishing I hadn't. I'm 99% sure that Hokkaido was wide open. The Allied force was mighty in terms of support troops (especially engineers and AA) and supply. My airforce would have been fine. But I didn't have enough infantry. I would have encountered some problems that would have slowed me down a bit. And there was a risk that I couldn't move fast enough or with enough power to take Hakodate, which would have been fatal. But, above all, the KB would now be in position and Hokkaido would be like a "colony" in deepest space, forced to stand or fall on it's own for many months. I think it would have turned into a costly Sumatra II, and I think the cost to my good transports (AKA, APA, etc.) would have been very high.

That is what I thought would happen, good call on moving on to the Aleutians instead.

[JohnDillworth]

So, what if I had proceeded to invade Hokkaido? I think I would now be wishing I hadn't. I'm 99% sure that Hokkaido was wide open. The Allied force was mighty in terms of support troops (especially engineers and AA) and supply. My airforce would have been fine. But I didn't have enough infantry. I would have encountered some problems that would have slowed me down a bit. And there was a risk that I couldn't move fast enough or with enough power to take Hakodate, which would have been fatal. But, above all, the KB would now be in position and Hokkaido would be like a "colony" in deepest space, forced to stand or fall on it's own for many months. I think it would have turned into a costly Sumatra II, and I think the cost to my good transports (AKA, APA, etc.) would have been very high.

I figured he would have gotten the KB in behind you. Not sure if you would have brought enough air power to hold off the KB and the endless air frames the Japanese have. Which begs the question, why no land based air to fight off the KB?

[Lecivius]

Hokkaido would have been "A bridge too far". It would have worked if that was KB around Sabang. It was a smaller force, with KB waiting like a killer right hook. Do you have the LBA air frames and functional bases to draw him in up north to trade blows?

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

hock a loogie into my sandwich

English translation - "goz in my butty"

Scottish translation - "snotter in my sanny"

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

...Which begs the question, why no land based air to fight off the KB?

Dutch Harbor and Akutan Island don't have airfields. Umnak's airfield was trashed by Allied bombardments necessary to take the base. Engineers haven't had time to repair.

Adak had 50 USAAF fighters, but the main concentration was/is around the Kodiak complex.

So some of the lagging/least valuable shipping had to remain in and around Dutch Harbor in harm's way. Roughly 15 of these are/were LCI that refused to unload. Some of the others were trying to unload key last-minute support troops.

On the day, I lost 10 LST, 8 LCI, 16 xAK, and one AM. That's a lot of shipping and all shipping is useful, but those are not "valuable" ships. Operation Circus included well over 600 merchants and another 150 or so combat ships. As I mentioned above (and have confirmed), none of the more valuable ships (AK, AP, AKA, APA, LSD, TK, AO, DMS, combat ships or carriers) have been lost. So a toll has been paid, but not prohibitive.

The question is: what does John do tomorrow. Given the Magic 24 Hour Movement Feature, I have to allow for the possibility that he'll send KB at Full Speed 18 hexes to the shadow or Kodiak. He won't, but I have to allow for it. Which means I have to move ships around again. My carriers and combat ships will take station east of Kodiak to protect the host of "valuable" shipping that is making for West Coast (and the next op, hopefully).

I think John is likely to steam closer and pick off more laggards (and I still have six or eight LCI at Adak refusing to unload one of those nice 90 aviation support units - I've managed to get 20 of the support ashore, but these other LCI remain at 96% load and refuse to budge - very odd).

I frankly don't know where John goes from here. Counterinvasion would be time-consuming and problematic for him. Possible but unlikely. Steaming KB strongly east into the Gulf Alaska would be risky. John is so beside himself that this is possible, but again not really likely. And I'm not sure what the other course is - sail around in circles for a few days or weeks until he comes up with another plan.

So I have to make the decision quick as to what I do. Death Star hangs around to keep John honest and then to facilitate the vast number of shipping missions necessary to straighten out my scattered OOB and make sure each new base has the right mix of support, garrison, etc.....

....Or, sprint south and move on the Gilberts and Marshalls now. I can get a jump on John. Probably at least a few days. Maybe more. And I think the Death Star can handle any LBA in those regions. And by the time Death Start reaches Hawaii, I'll have at least two divisions worth of troops ready to move (well, it may take me ten days or two weeks to get APA and AK and the like to Pearl).

I like the possibilities, so that's what I'm going to lean towards.

Meanwhile, NoPac is a cauldron and John is seething.

[Canoerebel]

I should add this: I have alot of shipping at Kodiak. Most will head east, but a fair number will remain in place. I have 215 fighters there - roughtly 45 Commonwealth Kittyhawks and Hurricanes (all with excellent pilots) and most of the rest P47Ds, P40Ks and one squadron of P38Gs. But there's also one small squadron of early-war fighters set at low altitutde.

Operation Circus included an entire air force prepackaged for Hokkaido. Some of these were fighters aboard CVEs ready to fly in and operate immediately. But roughly 15 AKVs and xAKs were carrying squadrons. Two of these recently made it back to San Fran, unloading the P47s that are now at Kodiak. Some Corsairs and F4Fs are still en route. And one of the big air transport TFs is instead making for Pearl.

John can make lots of thunder and lightning by hitting Kodiak (I don't think he will, but he might). I'm willing to chance it for this reason: If he really blunts KB's air arm against 215 mostly excellent fighter squadrons, it might give me a big advantage to press forward with the next op. KB isn't in the best place to refuel or replace lost aircraft...and if it becomes a sprint to the Gilberts and Marshalls, how does he handle this?

I, for once, may be able to take advantage of interior lines.

[BBfanboy]

In addition to enjoying LBA support if he comes near Kodiak, KB's strikes would be split among your amphib TFs in the area. It would be worthwhile to keep the ones with "supply only" embarked as formed TFs to divert his carrier strikes. They should remain in the Kodiak hex though.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Encircled

hock a loogie into my sandwich

English translation - "goz in my butty"

Scottish translation - "snotter in my sanny"

That's where US English is oh so much more precise. Snot and a loogie are the same material, but different locales. [:'(]

[Lecivius]

Adak is the main prize, IMHO. Good port, good base for air field.

If he comes at you at Kodiak, and you have serious LBA fighter coverage as well as your Death Star, you could well put a hurtin' on him. He is a LONG way from decent support. You have your new flight decks showing up to replace any damage done, and ports close by if you take a beating. What he has now is pretty much what he has. The next 3 days are going to be interesting.

[Canoerebel]

This is morphing into the "Loogie" thread while Jocke's AAR has morphed into the "Stomach Flu" thread.

I will be very surprised if John ventures into the Gulf of Alaska. But since there is that slimmest of possibilities, I sent almost all of my "good ships" to the West Coast (not that they aren't totally out of harm's way yet). I am keeping some shipping at Kodiak because I need to handle things on the new islands - supply, moving troops around, inserting troops. I've got fragments here and there, etc. Getting things untangled is going to be a pain.

I don't think he can catch the bulk of that good shipping before it arrives at Prince Rupert, which is now a huge port and airfield with plenty of fighters proximate. And, yes, I would give battle to KB if John gets so far away from home that's he's reckless.

But surely he won't be that reckless???