The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I, for once, may be able to take advantage of interior lines.

I applaud audacity, but getting your gaggle to safety should be paramount IMO. You get a lot of ships, but this was a fairly big hit.

As far as racing to the Marshalls/Gilberts it's a great idea IF you have the troops on the WC prepped. Those are auto-shock islands for the most part. Even 50 prep isn't close to good enough.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But surely he won't be that reckless???

I thought we were talking about John [&:]


[:D]


He probably won't, I agree. He will go after everything west of Dutch Harbor with the vengeance of a puppy going after a stuffed toy. I don't know your logistics. Is it possible to have your Death Star smothered by LBA LRCAP & try to sneak in a shot at him?

[Canoerebel]

Right now all the bases below Kodiak are in various states of disrepair (or nonexistence, in the case of Akutan) except Adak. It's a level five field that's now fully operational with decent (but not abundant) supply. But that's not going to suffice in the near term becasue it's in the shadows of at least four big IJ airfields just to the west.

Only if John ventures near Kodiak or Prince Rupert could my land and naval air combine to hit him. But he might order a port strike against Dutch Harbor, which has the most immense amount of flak ever seen in an AE game (Dutch was my central hub - all ships unloading here and then LST were to parcel units out, but KB arrived before I could get started). If John hits Dutch, he'll sink 25 xAK and LSTs and might loose 200 aircraft to flak. Seriously.

[BBfanboy]

I wonder if the stacking limit excess at DH will somehow affect performance of the AA? We know it affects other units' performance.

[Canoerebel]

6/7/43

Operation Circus: KB moves north into the Bering Sea. This is a mysterious move to me, but John probably has a good reason. No air attacks of any substance, though dive bombers pick off two empty LCI. And finally, at long last, the LCI at Adak unload that aviation support, giving Adak a decent compliment of about 135.

John swings his new CBs into action as they and a couple of CAs bombard Dutch Harbor to almost no effect. And the bombardments didn't touch the ships in the harbor. I'm still hoping John will order a port strike, unaware of the flak nest.

As you can see from the screenshot, the Allied shipping not at Kodiak is well to the east, some moving to Prince Rupert and others moving to West Coast. There are some ships at Anchorage unprotected, but only xAK.

My carriers will move south a bit. If John keeps the KB up here looking for targets, and if I can steal a march on him to head south, I will. Lots of troops and ships making for San Fran just on the possibility the Allies will attack again.

Battle of Sumatra: Yamato and Two BB Friends bombard Sabang to no effect (except messing up the disabled aircraft left over from last week's ill-advised raid effort). Supply remains at 44k. Lots of enemy air targeted 1st Marine Div. on the west side, again to no effect. The three forts seem to have made the unit immune to attack by air.

SigInt continues the tale of movement to NoPac, but also some confusion on John's part. 116th Div, which went from Sumatra to Darwin, then loaded on ships to head to the Carolines, is now headed for Langsa to march overland to Sabang. When John conquers Sabang, he will explode. It's only taken seven months (and counting) and he's had basically free-reign with no opposition for four months. Fortress Sabang wasn't impregnable, but it's been one tough nut.

[Canoerebel]

6/8/43

Operation Circus: KB, still posted NW of Umnak, launched massed attacks at the Allied shipping disbanded at Dutch Harbor. The results were one LST sunk, five or ten xAKs and LSTs damaged, and something like 60 Jills downed by flak. Just a rough guess that this might represent as much as 10% to 15% of KBs dive bomber OOB. I need to do some quick calculations as to whether John can replenish aircraft at his remaining Aleutian bases. My carriers are about to move south. All of this will bear close watching.

The massive AA fire ate an amazing amount of supply, partly because the island is so overloaded I guess. It has 80k troops with a 35k limit. In going through the troops, it's not as bad as I thought, meaning most of the units are "entire" so that the rounding up and bringing together of units won't be as taxing as feared. But I can't begin that until KB is out of here. If Death Star heads south then KB will probably have to follow. Let's see what happens.

IJ subs and aircraft picked off a few more "low value" ships. And subs are now close to West Coast so that naked merchants are vulnerable. One sub is a hex south of Death Star, so I'll sweat that transit tomorrow.

Battle of Sumatra: No bombardments. Bombings continue to focus on 1st Marine Div. No attacks. SigInt reports 4th Div. recently at Soerabaja and then bound for the Carolines, is now heading to Langsa/Sabang. By the time it arrives supply will be gone, in all likelihood, and 10 to 12 divisions will be here. That's a positive way of spinning things. There are negative ways too, of course. And where does John go with his troops once he has Sabang? Supply down to 43k.

An IJN cruiser force sortied and picked off two supply xAK damaged by aircraft a few days back. I have two CA TFs and the CVE TF close by. I wouldn't mind a clash as long as Mini KB isn't present. Right now I think she's at Georgetown.

[Canoerebel]

John's largest port in the Aleutians is three. He might have AKE that will allow replenishment of ammo. But I wonder if he can replace aircraft? Paramushiro is a 5, so it's probably not good. He might have to retire to Honshu. As for fuel, he has an AO replenishment TF in theater, but it lost two AOs to subs on the way. So fuel may be an issue for him too.

I haven't pulled the trigger yet on a race to the south, but its an increasingly interesting option.

[BBfanboy]

That picture with KB north of the Aleutians shows TKs in the TF. Do you suppose he was fuelling up with AOs there? I know CVs are often reported as TKs too.

AFAIK an AKE can replenish sorties, but not aircraft. I am unsure of the logistics of aircraft replenishment from supply (base size? HQ? Supply minimum?) and I do not think Japan has actual squadrons designed to replenish carriers the way the VRF/VRB squadrons do.

EDIT: PS - if he does have to replenish from a larger base, he does not have to take KB all the way back there, he just needs to be able to fly the squadron there.

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's largest port in the Aleutians is three. He might have AKE that will allow replenishment of ammo. But I wonder if he can replace aircraft? Paramushiro is a 5, so it's probably not good. He might have to retire to Honshu. As for fuel, he has an AO replenishment TF in theater, but it lost two AOs to subs on the way. So fuel may be an issue for him too.

I haven't pulled the trigger yet on a race to the south, but its an increasingly interesting option.

Assuming it is the same way as in stock, this may help making the right decision (or not)

Manual 16.2

"The air unit is located at a base with an airfield size of 1+ (or 0 if a
float-equipped group and the base is in a coastal hex) and the base
has over 20,000 supplies. Supplies will be expended at the base
and the unit will receive damaged planes from the pool (they may
repair before the next orders phase during the repair phase)."

Strictly speaking this is a condition for automated replacements, but it seems to e valid for manual replacement as well.

Hartwig

[morejeffs]

If you do try for a battle...would any of your bases be able to launch 4E bombers? Of course they will never hit a carrier...But if they manage to go in first, they can damage a bunch of fighters...

[Encircled]

If he was going to attack Kodaik, then he's in the perfect position to rush in launch air strikes from the other side of Alaska.

[Canoerebel]

Yup. He can hit Anchorage from that side too (though he doesn't have any recon on it and doesn't know if anything's there).

But after losing 60 or more Jills last turn, I think John will now be reluctant to strike any hard target. I think that's a large enough loss that he'll be thinking about replacing those aircraft pretty soon.

If my tallies are right, Steroid KB is down from 900 to 840 aircraft. Death Star is about to go from 700 to 760, as CVE Anzio is on map and the RN CV at San Fran has completed upgrades. The gap is closing, and this trend will continue over the next couple of weeks.

[poodlebrain]

KB, still posted NW of Umnak, launched massed attacks at the Allied shipping disbanded at Dutch Harbor.

Do you think the KB is through launching strikes against your shipping at Dutch Harbor and areas to its east? The longer the KB conducts strikes in this region the better your chances of inflicting some serious damage on the KB. How many sorties has the KB used since it has had the opportunity to replenish, and what sort of combat losses has it suffered? It may not be necessary to try and draw the KB south if your opponent uses an excessive number of sorties against your "low value" shipping. You might be able to get between an exhausted KB and possible replenishment sites with the Death Star by moving the Death Star west in the vicinity of Adak.

[Canoerebel]

Poodle, I think most of your questions will be answered in the next update.

[Canoerebel]

6/9/43

Operation Circus: Steroid KB moved to the west and is now north of Attu. John forgot to turn off "port strike" for some Betties operating out of that vicinity. They hit Dutch Harbor again and got chewed up - one hit on an xAK in exchange for 18 Netties downed. John has taken notice of the flak after yesterday's misadventure (more about that below).

Death Star avoided any tangles with subs and is moving south. A sub picked off a TK heading in to Prince Rupert. (This is the first "valuable ship" the Allies have lost in this operation. I think, but I'm not certain, that most of the IJ subs are in the Gulf of Alaska region. I'm hoping that they aren't as far as West Coast. My shipping is all scattered about what with fleeing KB a week back, so I just want to get them out of the area even though many TFs don't have ASW. But most of the high-value ships are already well to the south.

Operation Circus has not gone perfectly, but it has done very well. Adak Island is fully operational now. I'm debating when and if to shift fighters and bombers in. I may wait a few more days. Right now I mostly only have 2EB (Mitchells). In a couple of days I'll have lots of SBDs.

The biggest question for me is: what does John do from here? Now that KB has sprinted up here, inflicted some damage, and absorbed a hit to its dive bombers, what's John's plan? If he's going to loiter to counter the next Allied move up here, which I think is more probable than any other possiblity, then the best thing I can do to help the Circus bases is to head south in strength, forcing John to react again.

I like this plan because there's a fair chance Death Star can get ahead of KB, which probably needs to stop to refuel, replace aircraft, replenish sorties (which are still at 80% or more, I bet). If I can manage to get seven days or a week ahead of John, I can move on the Gilberts and/or Marshalls in great strength before he can get there. The fact that all his BBs are still in Sumatra makes this more attractive. He migth have something down that way, but nothing that can stand against Death Star and the eight or so Allied BBs on hand, including three fast ones.

I have to decide whether to head straight south and refuel at Pearl, which will drop its stocks considerably, or first swing by San Fran. On the idea that - as usual - speed is everything, I'll probably head straight south. I don't really have the inner route here, so if John reacts quickly with KB he can stifle this plan. But keeping Death Star up here in a stalement, staring contest with John wouldn't accomplish as much as a big and successful move in CenPac, so I'm leaning that way.

Battle of Sumatra: No bombardments or ground attacks today. Just some modest air raids on the west side (John's probably using these in hopes of dropping supply). I think Sabang should hold for two more weeks. It would be very nice to take advantage of what's going on there one more time.

How John Reacts to Problems: I enjoy monitoring John's morale in the game (although, as everyone knows by now, there are times when I get irked too, especially when the rascal is experiencing Banzai moments). But John has a predictable routine when things don't go his way. He'll occasionally send an email acknowledging a bad turn. When he does, he always includes a silver lining that shows how things could have been so much worse.

For instance, after yesterday's flak-fest at Dutch Harbor in which he lost 60 or more Jills, he sent this email today: "Yesterday’s experience with your ground AA was rather RUDE! Luckily I didn’t lose that many pilots so lesson learned."

A few months back, an RN CA combat TF from Sabang raided Phuket and sank 10 or 15 merchants. On that occasion, John sent an email noting that "ships carrying two divisions just passed there" and that he was glad they hadn't been involved.

After the big B-24 raid against Singapore early in the year, damaging several carriers (including Hiyo severely), John wrote words to this effect: "I'm just glad they only carried 500 pound bombs."

[witpqs]

I like your plan.

[Mike McCreery]

AFB's take a beating for a number of years in game knowing the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train ;]

Keep on truckin!!

[Canoerebel]

Yes, you're exactly right. We all know the feeling of surviving for so long and how refreshing the change is when the change finally arrives. (I'm not saying that everything's changed now - just that it's different than it was for month after month where basically all I did was endure bombardments at Sabang and move chits around hoping that one day in the distant future the Allies would be able to move in strength in NoPac.)

[BBfanboy]

Dan, have all your carriers upgraded to Hellcats now? Should make quite a difference when you need to push aside his LBA.

Agree with witpqs that the plan looks good. You always seem to think through all the possibilities and opportunities and arrive at the one with the best long-term impact. I like that style! [&o]

[Capt. Harlock]

But I can't begin that until KB is out of here.

I imagine the value of having the KB parked long-term in the Bering Sea would far exceed any inconvenience in delivering more troops and supplies!