The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[desicat]

One interesting thing to note is that once he takes out Sabang he will have to disburse the exhausted units there to where he expects your next avenue of attack to come from. Sumatra is currently a wreck of mish-mashed out of place units and little to no fortifications.

I hate to say it but the next 5 or 6 months (after his units re position) will provide an excellent opportunity to invade Sumatra a second time, especially as he is currently reacting north to the Aleutian Islands and East towards the Marshalls (probably). Take a look at his current disposition in the Sumatran theater - it appears to be badly spaced and placed.

The one thing he appears to have is interlocking AF's around Sabang, how do things look a bit to the South?

[desicat]

He has proven to overreact to things in Burma - as he probably should, that is another weakness he has in the theater.

[Canoerebel]

There is precedent for John drawing down in that way. In the summer of '42, the Allies threatened to invade the Aluetians. In what became known as Just in Time Reinforcements I, John reinforced his bases strongly. Yet when I arrived in May '42, most of those bases were lightly garrisoned.

In my previous WitP game vs. John, the Allies invaded Hokkaido, Sikhalin Island, and the Kuriles in great strength in early winter '43. Sometime in '44, the Allies then invaded Sumatra. So there is precedent for that kind of move too.

I'm already planning most of the operations for the balance of '43. I won't go into detail now, but veteran players of this monster game know that planning, prepping, moving supply and massive amounts of men, takes months. Operation Circus was four months in the planning. So some of the planning I'm doing now will be timed in the winter months.

[anarchyintheuk]

Given this mod I would venture whatever window that you have for Hellcat superiority it is much smaller or non-existent compared to stock.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not counting on superiority - just enough quality to compete.

I think the Hellcat will suffice. I found that rugged frames like the F4F and P40K in the hands of good pilots held their own against John's second-generation fighters like the early Tojo and the Tony (and more than held their own against the Zeros).

[witpqs]

Depending on the model, the Wildcats have a top speed of ~318 mph or ~328 mph. IIRC the ~328 mph ones have only 4x .50 cal guns. The Hellcat -3 (the first one) is ~380 mph and has 6x .50 cal guns. It's really a huge improvement. Sure you have to compare it to whatever they are up against, but compared to what you had been using it's a great upgrade.

[Capt. Harlock]

You already know that the Allied army in Sumatra is immense. It was built around seven divisions: one Indian, 18th UK, 1st Marines, and four USA (27th, Americal, and two in the "30s"). These were reinforced by elements of two marine regiments, a few parachute fragments, some tank units and combat engineers, and a few arty units. There is also a massive amount of support, including AA, base force personnel, and HQ units including some US airforce commands and SWPac.

I haven't counted troops, but this army might be 100k to 150k. At the same time, it has been whittled through fighting and campaigning over the past seven months. I turned off replacements long ago as supply was my limiting factor. So most of the divisions are now at half strength or less. Americal (broken into it's three RCT) is nearly full strength. But 18th UK, for instance, is 118 AV, and 1st Marine is 222 AV (and neither unit has a single disabled squad, so that's a true number).

Is there any chance of evacuating cadres with long-range aircraft or submarines?

[poodlebrain]

I refer to what you are doing in the Aleutians as doing the Monty in honor of Bernard Montgomery. Consolidating your gains and reorganizing your forces in preparation of future operations. It isn't sexy, but it is a requirement in a game as complicated as WitPAE.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not counting on superiority - just enough quality to compete.

I think the Hellcat will suffice. I found that rugged frames like the F4F and P40K in the hands of good pilots held their own against John's second-generation fighters like the early Tojo and the Tony (and more than held their own against the Zeros).

It should be noted that the second generation Hellcat that comes on in mid 44 is much faster in Da Babes. Somewhere around 390 MPH and has good stats otherwise. Along with corsairs on your carriers you should be fine.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

You already know that the Allied army in Sumatra is immense. It was built around seven divisions: one Indian, 18th UK, 1st Marines, and four USA (27th, Americal, and two in the "30s"). These were reinforced by elements of two marine regiments, a few parachute fragments, some tank units and combat engineers, and a few arty units. There is also a massive amount of support, including AA, base force personnel, and HQ units including some US airforce commands and SWPac.

I haven't counted troops, but this army might be 100k to 150k. At the same time, it has been whittled through fighting and campaigning over the past seven months. I turned off replacements long ago as supply was my limiting factor. So most of the divisions are now at half strength or less. Americal (broken into it's three RCT) is nearly full strength. But 18th UK, for instance, is 118 AV, and 1st Marine is 222 AV (and neither unit has a single disabled squad, so that's a true number).

Is there any chance of evacuating cadres with long-range aircraft or submarines?

Really does not matter in AE. You are going to be rebuilding the units regardless. It costs very little to buy them back.

[BBfanboy]

You mentioned your naval pilot pools on the previous page, and since you were on hiatus for quite some time, you may have forgotten that Naval Fighter pilot pools run dry in 1944 because of the massive expansion of the carrier fleet, of fighter squadron size, and the tendency to put two fighter squadrons on the big carriers.
If you have not already done so, the float plane squadrons at LA or San Diego can be used to train fighter pilots for the navy. This is a more pressing need than using them to train search or ASW or naval attack.

[Canoerebel]

6/13/43

Battle of Sumatra: No attacks or bombardments today, so John is waiting for a reinforcing division to arrive and for attack-disruption to repair. The next attack will be combined land-sea and possibly air. It might well succeed. CAs bombarded 1st Marine Div. on the west side today without effect. I counted the remaining Allied army in Sumatra: 129,000 strong. Is this the largest Allied army ever surrendered (not including the opening of the war in the PI and Malaya)? Am I fated to go down in history in this way. I do not wish to but there it is.

Operation Circus: The Allied army from Ulak up to Cold Bay is 163,000 strong. Another 20k or so unloaded at Kodiak. And many thousands (including 2+ divisions and lots of support troops) were re-routed to west coast and other locales. So I think Circus would have featured an army 250k or so at Hokkaido.

Lots of troop movements going on (and will be for weeks). Dutch Harbor garrison is down to 71k (from a high of 81k). It needs to be at 35k, so nearly 30% of that undertaking is complete.

Operation Roller Coaster: For shorthand, this is the name of the next Allied operation, which isn't set in stone but depends largely on what John does with KB now. In that regard, SigInt provided a nugget today: an unspecified IJ BB heading to Tokyo (almost certainly from Paramushiro). As mentioned yesterday, the Allies have plans for three possibilities: (1) John remains strongly in NoPac; (2) John moves strongly to CenPac; or (3) John dawdles a bit as his carriers and other ships replenish in the home islands.

[ny59giants]

CAs bombarded 1st Marine Div. on the west side today without effect.

While it's easy to focus on the casualities, the important thing is what is the disruption number for the division. Casualties are a good sign of the effectiveness of the bombardment, but I would be more interested in what the disruption numbers are. Could you post what they were before and after? Now that John has troops in Sabang, what are the disruption numbers for your divisions there? Are his daily naval bombardments raising them or keeping them high? IMO, these numbers will decide how long the siege last.

[Bullwinkle58]

Are the Marines still out of Sabang only for SL reasons?

Their organic supply would make them good defenders for a couple of attacks. At some point it's a trade off between base supply hits from over-stacking and having the AV someplace it can do some good in the delay.

[Canoerebel]

The Marines didn't suffer any disruption in the bombardments and bombings. The jungle-rough terrain isn't shielding them. It's the forts (level 3) that they've built. In previous jungle-rough hexes that they defended without the benefit of forts, bombardments by cruisers did disrupt them.

The Marines (with 220 AV) are blocking three enemy divisions (two infantry and one tank). They're better off serving in that capacity than contributing to the defense of Sabang, because the three enemy divisions their holding back would be considerably more powerful in Sabang's clear terrain hex.

[Canoerebel]

6/14/43

Battle of Sumatra: No bombardments or ground attacks today. The airfields is fully operational again, though I dare not try anything fancy after the most recent fiasco (I still have 60+ damaged aircraft there). John is clearly waiting for the right turn to combine all forces and launch a great attack. I think there's a 50/50 shot the base will fall; and probably 95% that it falls on the succeeding attack. Supply is down to 28k, so John won't harvest a windfall in that category, at least. I am buckling down to endure the great "Banzai Fest" that's coming my way. I don't begrudge John this one. He's earned it...and he had to pay dearly.

Operation Circus: P47s swing into battle for the first time, aiding in a big sweep of Amchitka with goes decisively for the Allies, who down 50+ fighters (including 28 Tojos) while losing just a handful. But my SBDs refused to fly the morning phase, which was wide open after the IJ CAP had been mauled, and ocme in naked in the afternoon. Seven are downed. Raids by Judys hit shipping at Adak, damaging about four ships including a good AK or two. Dutch Harbor garrison is down from 81k to 69k now, as that important project continues. And I'm moving forward a stout combat TF to Umnak (and thence to Adak). I think John is going to send in combat TFs to deal with the merchants, so I want to counter...and I'm hoping he might be enticed to recommit the KB up here.

Operation Roller Coaster: But John won't be enticed if he's sniffed out this next op. The first troops have already embarked (this contingent from Tahiti), but the main loading is probably about four days off. I don't have enough to proceed with everything I'd like to have, but time is critical and I have enough to hit hard. The USN fleet carriers are two or three days out of Pearl. The CVEs are perhaps three days behind. 7th USA Div. is about four days from Pearl; 7th Aust. Div. is about five days out.

This is a close thing: I can move strongly in the absence of the KB, but I can't afford a clash with KB quite yet. So my default action will be to stand down in the face of uncertainty in order to await the arrival of the two new Essex class in 32 days. But if I can confirm KB in NoPac or at Tokyo, then I'm going hard.

Operation Carnival: Once Roller Coast is done, the Allies will move back to NoPac and actively seek a carrier engagement. By then (and barring losses in the meantime), I'll have 9 fleet CVs, one RN CV, two CVL, and roughly 10-12 CVE. I think that's enough to tangle in the shadows of the big Allied base at Adak. So the Allies will press forward to invade Amchitka (a big Indian div. will arrive at East Coast in a few days and has been prepping) and Attu (1st Cav. Div. arrives in a week or two).

So, for the next two or three months, the plan is to focus on hit and run invasion in CenPac and then switch to NoPac to seek and give battle in later summer.

[Canoerebel]

6/15/43

Interesting turn in terms of information and potential for clashes.

Battle of Sumatra: Massed IJN bombardments of Sabang and air attacks on the troops to the west, followed by a deliberate attack that fails pretty miserably. Attack comes off at 1:2, doesn't touch three forts, and messes up a bunch of IJA divisions. John is surely beside himself. But supply went "orange" for the first time, dropping to 24k. The Allies might hold now for another week or more. The end is coming. Let's see if the Allies can hold through this month.

Four months ago today, February 15, John sent an email: "I think I can safely say that this campaign will be decided by the end of the month." In a way, he was right, because the huge bombardments that commenced on Feb. 18 proved to be ultimately decisive. But John never envisioned another 120 days (and counting) of stiff opposition.

Operation Circus: Enemy carriers (at least 390 aircraft, meaning this is at least Half KB) showed up four hexes south of Attu Island. There's a combat TF of uncertain composition but probably very strong near Amchitka. I "think" this is a strong force that's going to move up the Aleutians chain to punish the Allied merchants so busily engaged in logistics (Dutch garrison is now down from 81k to 65k). But I'm sending forward a strong combat TF consisting of CA Shropshire, CLAA San Juan, and eight Fletcher DDs. This TF will try to sprint from Umnak to Adak (nine hexes) and take station under a CAP of 200 fighters, a mix of everything: Hellcats, P38Gs, Corsairs, P47s, Kittyhawks and P40Ks. This combat TF is steaming into a hurricane and could get savaged, but John could also blunt his carrier air against a hard target (Adak CAP). Most importantly, I want to give John reason to keep KB posted up here, even if it means suffering losses.

Operation Roller Coaster: With at least Half KB in NoPac (but only 38 hexes from Midway, so modest distances are a big factor here), this operation gets a big thumbs up. It's still another six or seven days until I will be able to load transports (lots of APA and other good transports inbound, plus 7th Aus. Div. is still a good four or five days from Pearl). If Half KB remains in NoPac during this interval, the Allies should be able to move in strength and with some confidence against multiple targets. The location of the other Half KB is an unknown, but Death Star is growing strong. CVL Brandywine just arrived at Canal Zone with another CVL to follow in two days. And the RN CV at San Fran is ready tomorrow. I think Death Star is now stronger than any Half KB.

[Canoerebel]

The combat report follows. It shows casualties relatively even, but I don't think that's accurate. During the combat replay, AV of at least three of the IJ divisions dropped to near zero. I think disruption and disablement is very high. In contrast, some of the Allied divisions have almost zero disruption, fatigue or disablements. A few have relatively high disruption, but this will decrease quickly since supply is still okay.

Ground combat at Sabang (44,70)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 63173 troops, 629 guns, 313 vehicles, Assault Value = 1766
Defending force 67249 troops, 1455 guns, 1742 vehicles, Assault Value = 1497

Japanese adjusted assault: 1078
Allied adjusted defense: 1463

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
6476 casualties reported
Squads: 32 destroyed, 268 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 43 disabled
Guns lost 43 (2 destroyed, 41 disabled)
Vehicles lost 26 (2 destroyed, 24 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1830 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 233 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 99 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 70 disabled
Guns lost 102 (8 destroyed, 94 disabled)
Vehicles lost 80 (10 destroyed, 70 disabled)

Assaulting units:
14th Division
38th Division
19th Division
16th Division
5th Division
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
21st Ind. Engineer Regiment
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
34th Ind. Engineer Regiment

Defending units:
164th Infantry Regiment
32nd Infantry Division
20th Indian Division
27th Infantry Division
503rd Parachute Regiment
2nd USMC Parachute Battalion
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
763rd Tank Battalion
182nd Infantry Regiment
132nd Infantry Regiment
99th Indian Brigade
193rd Tank Battalion
18th British Division
37th Infantry Division
102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
21st Marine Rgt /1
9th Marine Rgt /5
8th Belfast Heavy AA Regiment
175 Wing
821st Engineer Aviation Battalion
804th Engineer Aviation Battalion
205th Field Artillery Battalion
Southwest Pacific
1393rd Construction Regiment
8th USN Naval Construction Battalion
1st RM Heavy AA Regiment
138th USA Base Force
2nd Ceylon H AA Regiment
VII US Bomber Cmnd
198th Field Artillery Battalion
78th Light AA Regiment
97th Coast AA Regiment
15th USN Naval Construction Battalion
221st USN Base Force
110th USA Base Force /5

[Canoerebel]

I have a turn waiting in the inbox. I'll run it tonight and then post. But I wanted to note that John III and his family are on spring break somewhere in the Colorado rockies. Given the time of year, I assume that they've gone snow skiing. He has two boys, so that sounds like a recipe for fun.

[poodlebrain]

How did you get a negative combat modifier for preparation in Sabang?