The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

About 35% of the units were prepped for Langsa, which served so well as a linchpin of the Allied defenses for so long.

[desicat]

This situation in Sabang is just too much like early '42 Singapore. Plenty of troops in a good position but just not enough supply - so frustrating.

[Canoerebel]

That's exactly right.

When the "real siege" began on February 18 (the date bombardments commenced and the blockade was established) the Allies had 302k supply. That was alot, but another 100k might have made the difference. That 100k would have allowed me to replace infantry losses from within the divisions already on the island (so that, for instance, 18 UK wouldn't be fighting with 118 AV at the moment).

I could have bided my time and then, when I had a true Death Star, attemped to ram home supply. I decided against that option because, in the first place, there were serious doubts that Sabang would hold out past March (Death Star couldn't truly take on KB plus big bases until at least June). In the end, I didn't want to do the very thing John expected; I didn't want to send Death Star into the teeth of KB and those big airfields. I think it was the right decision. The ability to move so strongly in NoPac was one dividend. Let's see if there are any more before John wraps things up.

[Capt. Harlock]

But supply went "orange" for the first time, dropping to 24k. The Allies might hold now for another week or more.

If the airfield is operational, is there any chance of flying supplies in, and "useless mouths" out?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

But supply went "orange" for the first time, dropping to 24k. The Allies might hold now for another week or more.

If the airfield is operational, is there any chance of flying supplies in, and "useless mouths" out?

I didn't think if that. Transport fly at 150% of normal range (instead of the shorter 'extended' range), but is that only when there is a runway? And the big question, would that also apply to B-17 bringing supply to Sabang?

[Canoerebel]

6/16/43

Battle of Sumatra: Five BBs bombard Sabang (staying for a second round that proves ineffective). Enemy bombers focus on the west side. No ground attacks. Supply is at 24k. Allied AV is down to 1300, which is 300 less than before the attacks commenced. Three divisions have 50% disruption. Two have 0%. But the Japanese units are probably much worse off.

NoPac: The CA Shropshire TF tangles with an IJN CL TF at Adak Island and comes out much the worse. Shropshire and DD Aulick (a Fletcher) go down. One IJN DD may be in trouble. This is a somewhat surprising outcome as the TF was strong and had good captains. But perhaps nighttime experience was lacking. (And I wonder how experienced the Kaigun is after four months bombarding Sabang? Has it created Uber experience?)

Half KB moved north four hexes to Attu Island. From John's perspective, he saw the strong Allied move into the Aleutians, recognized his own weakness there and at Hokkaido, and has naturally reacted strongly to stop the advance. I hope that's his mindset for another week or two.

Within 9 days, the Allies will have three divisions prepping for Amchitka (1) and Attu (2). Other troops are prepping for the adjacent bases at Shemya and Buldir. John is reinforcing strongly. 7th Div. has been at Attu since the summer of '42. And I know he has some coastal defense guns here. But this is as good a place as any to fight since it's within range of big Allied airfields.

The Allies have 425k supply at Kodiak. All the big bases down the chain are flush with supply, though Dutch remains tenuous since it is overstacked.

I'll post some screenshots later.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in NoPac

[CaptBeefheart]

I wonder if those Fletchers would have done better on their own?

Cheers,
CC

[HansBolter]

Shemya is a better base than adjacent Attu.

Its airfield can be built large enough to allow B24s to operate there and reach Paramashiro Jima.

[Canoerebel]

One of the perils every player must contend with is Victory Disease. We all have a general idea as to what it is: the idea that, after a victory or series of victories, further success is almost inevitable so that we let down our guard or forget to take the precautions necessary to avoid defeat and disaster.

Nearly every writer of an AAR is accused, from time to time, of suffering from Victory Disease. It can be a particularly noxious accusation, for oftentimes it's leveled by casual readers who are not fully aware of all the thinking and planning and precautions that went into the plan that went awry.

The Allies are about to engage in a new offensive operation. Since it follows so closely on the heals of Operation Circus, which I think has been fabulously successful, the setting is ripe for Victory Disease or accusation of Victory Disease. So I wanted to address my thinking as I transition from Circus to Roller Coaster.

The Allies have not become sufficiently powerful yet to meet Steriod KB head on. But the Allies are powerful enough to move strongly in less hostile environments, and failing to take advantage of favorable conditions would be counterproductive.

At present, at least seven Japanese BBs and a Mini KB are confirmed posted near Sabang, and a strong Half KB is posted in the Aluetians. This means that the Allies can achieve local superiority by concentrating elsewhere (if I am able to move under the current conditions), which is the plan behind Roller Coaster.

There of course is danger here. John will have interlocking bases with airfields, so enemy strike aircraft are a threat. At the moment, though, the enemy should be at a sizeable disadvantage in surface combat assets, and I don't think there is a concentration of IJ subs in the Roller Coaster area of operations. The Allies will target at least four bases and perhaps as many as seven. If successful, I'll then have my own interlocking network of bases in a position that threatens the flank of major Japanese bases to the southwest and which opens up CenPac to future moves.

We're about to transition into a new phase of the war (though, as any player knows, a defeat or major losses might setback the clock for months). In '42 and well into '43, it's very helpful to essential for the Allies to utilize suprise to attain temporary superiority of numbers at any point of attack. At some point in mid or late '43, however, the Allied OOB is strong enough that surprise, while still beneficial, is no longer critical. The Allies at that point can simply plan well, combine all available forces, and hit the enemy directly and hard. In that situation, using valuable time or bleeding off the assets needed to create feints required to achieve surprise can be counterproductive.

Barring major losses, I think Roller Coaster will be the last "early war" operation that requires surprise. If suprrise is achieved, the operation is worthwile and should succeed, and the risk is worth it. After Roller Coaster, the Allies may soon have enough power to face the enemy head on, as is the plan with Operation Carnival and the invasions of the remaining IJ bases in the Aleutians.

[Lecivius]

Interesting. He had KB here. He has a smaller carrier force around Sabang. John is not known for splitting KB, so what gives? He is either off repairing damage from charging north, replacing losses, or doing upgrades (or all of the above). This might be an opportunity, depending on exactly what the answer is. Are your plans set that your Death Star is on the move south, or can it move north to possibly engage? Or are you OK leaving things as is?

[Canoerebel]

It's possible that the complete Steroid KB is up north, but I've only confirmed Half KB. The other "half" could be there or might be at Tokyo or might be sneaking up to try to goose me even as we speak.

To me, the presence of Half KB up there suggests that John was very concerned about the security of his remaining Aleutians bases plus Hokkaido. For all he knew in the FOW surrounding Circus, I was planning to keep right on going. Since he had some glaring weaknesses up there, I think he (predictably and understandably) might have overreacted.

The Allied carriers have been on the move since Circus wound down about ten days ago. I'll provid more information about what's going on with them in about a week.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One of the perils every player must contend with is Victory Disease. We all have a general idea as to what it is: the idea that, after a victory or series of victories, further success is almost inevitable so that we let down our guard or forget to take the precautions necessary to avoid defeat and disaster.

Nearly every writer of an AAR is accused, from time to time, of suffering from Victory Disease. It can be a particularly noxious accusation, for oftentimes it's leveled by casual readers who are not fully aware of all the thinking and planning and precautions that went into the plan that went awry.

The Allies are about to engage in a new offensive operation. Since it follows so closely on the heals of Operation Circus, which I think has been fabulously successful, the setting is ripe for Victory Disease or accusation of Victory Disease. So I wanted to address my thinking as I transition from Circus to Roller Coaster.

The Allies have not become sufficiently powerful yet to meet Steriod KB head on. But the Allies are powerful enough to move strongly in less hostile environments, and failing to take advantage of favorable conditions would be counterproductive.

At present, at least seven Japanese BBs and a Mini KB are confirmed posted near Sabang, and a strong Half KB is posted in the Aluetians. This means that the Allies can achieve local superiority by concentrating elsewhere (if I am able to move under the current conditions), which is the plan behind Roller Coaster.

There of course is danger here. John will have interlocking bases with airfields, so enemy strike aircraft are a threat. At the moment, though, the enemy should be at a sizeable disadvantage in surface combat assets, and I don't think there is a concentration of IJ subs in the Roller Coaster area of operations. The Allies will target at least four bases and perhaps as many as seven. If successful, I'll then have my own interlocking network of bases in a position that threatens the flank of major Japanese bases to the southwest and which opens up CenPac to future moves.

We're about to transition into a new phase of the war (though, as any player knows, a defeat or major losses might setback the clock for months). In '42 and well into '43, it's very helpful to essential for the Allies to utilize suprise to attain temporary superiority of numbers at any point of attack. At some point in mid or late '43, however, the Allied OOB is strong enough that surprise, while still beneficial, is no longer critical. The Allies at that point can simply plan well, combine all available forces, and hit the enemy directly and hard. In that situation, using valuable time or bleeding off the assets needed to create feints required to achieve surprise can be counterproductive.

Barring major losses, I think Roller Coaster will be the last "early war" operation that requires surprise. If suprrise is achieved, the operation is worthwile and should succeed, and the risk is worth it. After Roller Coaster, the Allies may soon have enough power to face the enemy head on, as is the plan with Operation Carnival and the invasions of the remaining IJ bases in the Aleutians.

Personally, I would not bother with taking the Marshalls. In my two campaigns I have seen no need to. I found it better to attack from the South and take Tarawa, Nauru, Kusai and Ponape while just leaving the Marshalls alone and cut off. The problem with the Marshalls is that the bases cannot really be expanded to support major operations. I prefer to have the bigger level seven ports at Rabual, Manus or Kavieng. So my questions is regardless of John's situation are you just making "busy work" for your troops and risking something over a location that is not that important. If you take them yes that's great but you could also suffer a defeat over something that is not worth the risk. You plan to hit atolls with less than fully prepped troops. Every time I try that I just get my fingers burned. Your losses in Sumatra while severe served a greater strategic purpose. I don't see something like that happening in the Marshalls.

The other issue is that you are going to need to rebuild the equivalent of four American divisions soon. Pretty easy to rebuild American units but you will be pushing the edge of the envelope if you take more losses. How far South of Lunga did John advance? I have forgotten.

[Canoerebel]

I will begin rebuilding those divisions, but I don't need them anytime soon. The Allies have a deep pool of divisions available to handle all operations planned for the balance of '43.

As for the other point you're making, I think a player can identify nearly any island group and utilize them beneficially. For instance, I've never made the Marshalls or Rabaul a major focus of attack in any game I've played (in fact, I've never invaded Rabaul). But either of those and many other groups can be made part of a cohesive plan that dovetails nicely with other operations.

This is not a "make work" operation. John at the moment doesn't have a strong presence here (except possibly LBA) and is vulnerable. The Allies should be able to obtain temporary local superiority. And these bases, if strongly held, are well-positioned to threaten the IJ flank in the Solomons, the New Hebrides, New Calednonia, etc.

While Rabaul and other bases have more potential, those places are much more remote and therefore pose much greater risk to any Allied operation at this date. Those bases would be isolated. Too, such an operation would not dovetail with the next Allied operation (Carnival). So there are many reasons that I've set up Roller Coaster as is.

I think John will react strongly to any incursions upon his core perimeter (he always does; he's wired that way), and wherever Death Star goes his focus will turn. So Half KB (or Steriod KB, as the case may be) fled halfway across the map to NoPac. I think John will soon send it sprinting to CenPac and SoPac...and if things go as planned (big if, of course), then he'll have to turn around and send it right back to NoPac.

[witpqs]

Technical note: rebuild them with the oldest squads you can to use up those pools and then upgrade. Otherwise the old type squads will be wasted (they will upgrade slowly in the pools but it takes forever). You can't choose what squads they have when they are repurchased, but you can avoid upgrading. Might not be a factor, but check your pools before you decide.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Technical note: rebuild them with the oldest squads you can to use up those pools and then upgrade. Otherwise the old type squads will be wasted (they will upgrade slowly in the pools but it takes forever). You can't choose what squads they have when they are repurchased, but you can avoid upgrading. Might not be a factor, but check your pools before you decide.

You have no control over this. They will generally return set with the latest squads and devices. Too bad, but you can't roll them back.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Technical note: rebuild them with the oldest squads you can to use up those pools and then upgrade. Otherwise the old type squads will be wasted (they will upgrade slowly in the pools but it takes forever). You can't choose what squads they have when they are repurchased, but you can avoid upgrading. Might not be a factor, but check your pools before you decide.

You have no control over this. They will generally return set with the latest squads and devices. Too bad, but you can't roll them back.

The point is, if they come in with an older squad version you can turn off device upgrades for the LCU, then let it fill with the old type. Later on, upgrade the squads to the new type.

[AcePylut]

Ya know, one thing about this game is the tedious nature of it. I mean "I'm going to invade Marcus Island in July"... oh great that's 4 months away, let me make sure for the next four months I tend to all my YMC ships, far off patrol planes, akl's, and the 10,000 mouseclicks that will take, to see this invasion happen.

What makes this enjoyable, is reading your and John's AAR's. Reading them, to me, is worth the price of the game itself. You both have fun-to-read styles. It's enjoyable.

[Mike McCreery]

I have to admit, the attempted Hokkaido run was a bit of a let down there at the end. However, you are playing a game and you dont always have things work out the way you want them.

What I do find a bit odd is that it feels like the forum has set the expectation bar for you pretty high and seems disappointed when you cannot deliver fantastic victory after fantastic victory. Not pointing fingers at any individuals but in my opinion you have nothing to apologize for.

I am realizing more and more how hard it is to comment on anything on the board (or by commenting, not comment on something else) when reading both AAR's without maybe giving away information even subconsciously.

Fascinating read :]

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I am realizing more and more how hard it is to comment on anything on the board (or by commenting, not comment on something else) when reading both AAR's without maybe giving away information even subconsciously.

Fascinating read :]

A very big reason why my commentary here is limited.

I can't resist looking at the other side. [:D]