The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lecivius]

I like to read all the AAR's. Once I started commenting in here I stopped reading John's, so I would not break OpSec even by accident. It's the first time since I joined these forums to only read one side. I found it a lot more difficult than I thought it might be [;)][:D]

[Canoerebel]

I think it's Bullwinkle who pointed out that AE has been out long enough that we've seen nearly every strategy employed now, so it's becoming harder and harder to find something novel and therefore exciting. As Acepylut says, it's hard to get excited about a game in which an Allied player says in 1943, "Hey, I'm gonna invade Marcus in four months"

So the prospect of an invasion of Hokkaido in June '43 offered something daring or rash, promising danger and excitement and a likelihood of eventual disaster (for one side or the other, most likely mine). That's good theater.

There are a couple of things about this game to commend it as unusual, I think. First, we've all heard about the Summer '42 Doldrums. For a variety of reasons, this contest has never had a period of doldrums. The Allies commenced attacking in Burma and the Assam coast in June '42 and John reacted sharply. We've been sharply engaged ever since. And there have been momentous clashes regularly (the daily battles in Sumatra and the drama of whether the Allied could hold are largely responsible).

Then there's the personal history between John and I (longtime opponents who grouse at each other inside the game while remaining on close terms outside the game). And the fact that we both keep AARs helps. I know I enjoy reading both sides of AARs (Raider vs. Greyjoy, Lowpe vs. Jocke) whenver they are available.

I agree with you gents that mainting OpSec is nearly impossible if comments are made by those reading both sides. It's way to easy for an player to pick up unstated hints and clues from questions asked or seemingly innocuous comments made.

I know there have been unintentional OpSec issues in this game. Months ago, one of the most polite, conscientous, longtime players posted a comment in another AAR about how he knew from "another AAR, I won't mention it for OpSec" that bombardments seemed to effect support troops more than infantry. I knew that he was talking about this game, and John would know too had he read that. (I didn't bring it up because I figured John was probably too busy with other games and real life to be reading that AAR and, even if he was, the info was as likely to confound and bother him as to help him).

There have also been occasions when readers (or a reader) have mentioned to John some of the extraneous discussions in this AAR. Several times John has come to me and said, "So-and-so mentioned that your readers are concerned about an imbalance in this mod..." and things like that. The danger is that John can sometimes pick up things. He might deduce something about my state of mind or what I'm concerned about.

On another occasion, we were discussing in here the flurry of reinforcements John was suddenly sending into the Java Sea region just after I started mentioning plans for that area. I speculated here that John might be engaging in a Just In Time Reinforcements III. John promptly sent an email to the effect that I was no doubt "seing a flood of reinforcements to Java Sea" so that I was wondering what was going on. I didn't ask John, but I'm nearly positive a well-meaning reader of my AAR told him about the discussion (his email comments dovetailed with the conversation here in such a way that it was highly unlikely that it was a coincidence). The reader hadn't meant to give away anything, yet John could deduce from such a comment that I was concerned about the reinforcements to that region and hence had plans there.

None of these things have been major enough for me to raise them as issues or to think there is any question of compromise. But I was concerned enough to create the elaborate maskirovka about Circus focusing on SWPac.

It's tough - perhaps almost impossible - to maintain total OpSec in a detailed AAR even with an audience of the most conscientous readers. One way to handle that is to post only retrospectively (Herbie does that pretty much in his AAR, though it might not be for that reason). I enjoy discussing my thoughts and plans in detail, yet I worry about misleading you guys unfairly. I haven't figured out how to handle that yet, but we're reaching a point in this game where it probably won't be a huge issue since surprise won't be such an important part of the game (it is early, but not so much late since the Allies can eventually just power forward).

[witpqs]

My own AAR is framed in a 'here is what happened today' format. Even that could figure in OpSec violations as you point out, because it's current information. But, also like you, I find it so good to put up plans and, often, engage in discussions with AAR readers that it's worth the risk. Walter started an AAR but has not had time for it, so I guess the risk is less. But even when he kept it up, it was just too good a part of the whole process to forego it.

[Canoerebel]

6/17/43

Battle of Sumatra: Kongo and Three Sisters (CAs) bombard Sabang to little effect. No enemy air raids or ground attacks. Supply is at 22k. In a way, I hope the final Japanese attack before supply runs out succeeds, as it will be rather heartbreaking when supply is gone and John knows it's his for the taking. But the good guys might just make it through this month.

Operation Circus: Half KB is at Attu Island, which is significant for reasons regular readers know. No enemy attacks today. The Allies have lots of small transport TFs shuffling troops around, especially from Umnak east, and this is going well. But there's a lot more to do, especially to get Dutch Harbor below it's stacking limit of 35k (currently 62k present). 425k supply and 125k fuel at Kodiak.

Operation Roller Coaster: The American fleet carriers are where they are supposed to be. All now have Hellcats. Two have Helldivers, and the rest have SBD5s. The Allies may be ready to move in five days or so.

[Anachro]

Does Roller Coaster imply you went up to the Aleutians and are now figuratively going down the drop towards CenPac or..probably SoPac? Or is just to suggest this is the beginning of the next phase of war in which allied advances speed up like a roller coaster? [:D]

[CaptBeefheart]

My apologies on the shore bombardment question. You're very likely correct. I didn't think it through.

Good luck with Roller Coaster!

Cheers,
CC

[Lowpe]

Given no Hokkaido Hurricane, I am back to reading both.[:)]

Did CC get the idea about bombardments from this AAR or mine as I devoted pages and pages to it?

I have surely given away tons of freebies with dual AARs that talk about tactics and strategies. My opponents read the other AAR and post occasionally...so I guess if John gives away intel in emails, I give tons away in my AARs.

But, it is a game, and I am playing for enjoyment and the AAR is a huge enjoyment boost!

Plus a better understanding of how the game works among players makes for a better pool of players. I have forwarded technical discussions to my opponents from my AAR and they have returned the favor.

Makes for a wonderful experience, I think.[:)]

[Canoerebel]

6/18/43

No apology needed. As noted you tried to maintain OpSec, John probably didn't read the post, and if he did the knowledge was as likely to be detrimental as beneficial.

Regarding keeping AARs, like Lowpe I love doing it. I can't imagine not doing an AAR. It's probably 50% of the enjoyment I get from the game. I'm not sure why. I know the readership is limited. And even among those that do read, many only do so sporadically and can't really keep abreast of all that's going on (after all, each player has his own game or games that are their highest priorities). Nonetheless, I love doing it.

Battle of Sumatra: Enemy reinforcements have arrived at Sabang, bringing the number of units from 9 to 12. It's about time for John to coordinate massed bombardments and attacks. Supply remains at 22k. The base could fall any day now or might hold through the end of the month. No sign of BBs or CAs today, but Mini KB remains near Georgetown.

Operation Circus: The single-most important point of information is that Half KB remains posted at Attu Island. Allied 4EB hit Amchitka today with decent success (35% damage even though the three bomber squadrons have low experience). There were a few dogfights over the base with the Allies coming out slightly ahead. I've had a combat TF posted at Adak for three or four days. I expect John to come after it again, either with a big combat TF of his own or with KB. The Allies are reconning all of the IJ bases in the western Aleutians while at the same time working hard on that behind-the-scenes work of mating fragment ground units with parents and pulling back some attack troops that will later be used against John's bases. So lots going on up here, but not much of it really sexy at the moment.

Operation Roller Coaster: With Half KB at Attu (and the other half still unaccounted for, but possibly at Tokyo), momentum behind this next offensive continues to grow. Lots of amphibious ships are still inbound to the major port of embarkation, so I don't expect loading to commence for three or four more days. In the meantime, the carriers and combat ships are repairing minor SYS and FLT damage. The Allied carriers are in pristine condition. Over the past 60 days, they've spent most of their time in the off-map transit system or in port, and thus have very little wear and tear.

[Mike McCreery]

I can say that I certainly appreciate the AAR's. It would not be anywhere near as fun a game if there was not someone to compare to and to see all the amazing combinations of tactics and combat.

[Bearcat2]

Enjoy reading your AAR; thanks!

[Canoerebel]

Strategic map.

[Canoerebel]

6/19/43

Operation Circus: Very tough naval battle at Adak. The Japanese attack with much greater weight of metal, both sides suffer casualties, and when I look at it from a macro-view, I think the Allies did pretty well. But this isn't obvious on it's face, so here's a summary (with actual combat report info included in the next post):
1. CLAA San Juan and six or seven Fletchers (and one non-Fletcher) under the command of Arleigh Burke withstand attacks by a TF that includes two CB and two CA.
2. In several rounds of attacks, the Japanese sink CLAA San Juan, two or three Fletcher, the other DD, plus a few xAK coming in to unload transport components of infantry units already at the island. Another six or so Fletchers take minor to moderate damage and will retire to Pearl or Seattle or San Fran to repair.
3. Two IJN CAs take a torp each plus more than 20 hits apiece. I doubt either will go down (which makes this like comparing apples to oranges, especially if you add CA Shropshire and another Fletcher sunk a few days back). I think three IJN DDs will sink and the CAs are at least repair yard candidates. As you know, John is already very short on CAs, and I think he's also hurting for DDs.
4. John sent in his heaviest guns and was largely turned back. This should leave him a bit tentative for awhile.
4. This leaves the Allies without combat ships in NoPac, though I don't think John will realize that for a few days or more (until he probes and faces no opposition). Importantly, I think this keeps John focused on NoPac, where things are tense and there are lots of targets (to his way of thinking).

In the air, heavies once again hit Amchitka pretty hard. The field is now 45% damaged.

And most importantly of all, Half KB remains posted at Attu Island.

Operation Roller Coaster: A bunch of transport TFs arrived at Pearl and unloaded, including 7th USA Div. Some of these units need two days to unpack (and a similar amount to recover disruption). That's about the same amount of time needed by most of the combat ships to repair minor wear and tear. I think some amphibs will begin loading tomorrow. The Allies are prepared to move with as many as four complete divisions and the equivalent of about two more. I have the combat ships, carriers, support ships and amphibs needed to carry on sustained operations. John will have to send KB this way or else the Allies won't stop - I'm prepared to move on Baker, Tabituea, Tarawa, Mili, Maloelap, Wotje, Jaluit, Ailingalap, Roi Namur, Kwajalein, Kusai, and Ponape if John doesn't react. He will, and I won't have that big a window, but that's what's on the table here.

The first targets will be Tarawa, Mili, Maloelap, Wotje and Jaluit. If those are taken in good order and KB is still up in NoPac, I'll continue.

Ordinarily, John wouldn't be playing coy with KB. Since Half KB is at Attu, I don't think he'd risk the other half against Death Star. There's a chance John will do so, thinking that Half KB plus LBA will permit him to do so. I'll us scouts and flankers and pickets to try to guard against this possibility.

One reason this is possible is that seven IJN BBs are still at Sumatra and three CBs are up in NoPac. It's unusual for Allied combat ships to outnumber what the Kaigun can offer, but I think that's the case here.

The Allies will have eight fleet CVs, one (maybe two) CVLs, and eight to ten CVEs.

Battle of Sumatra: John has withdrawn two units from Sabang (probably beaten up in the fighting). It looks like his BBs are at Georgetown. Supply at Sabang is 21k. The Allies might hold another week or so. But the main thing is those BBs (and Mini KB) is so far away they won't be present for Roller Coaster.

[Canoerebel]

Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CA Haguro, Shell hits 29, Torpedo hits 1
CA Mikuma, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 1
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Isokaze, Shell hits 5
DD Shiranui, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
DD Yamakaze

Allied Ships
CLAA San Juan, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DD Fletcher
DD Abbot
DD Chevalier, Shell hits 3
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1
DD Renshaw, Shell hits 1
DD Taylor
DD Frazier, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage later sank
DD Worden


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami
DD Isokaze

Allied Ships
DD Worden, Shell hits 24, and is sunk


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami
DD Isokaze

Allied Ships
xAK Bald Eagle, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Trade Wind, Shell hits 13, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 161,52, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi, Shell hits 1
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu, Shell hits 4
DD Kishinami, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Isokaze, Shell hits 13, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Abbot, Shell hits 3
DD Chevalier
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
DD Renshaw, Shell hits 2
DD Taylor, Shell hits 1

[DOCUP]

Delurking: Did your DDs retire to a base that could rearm them. I bet you some of your DDs will be lightly damaged and might have a chance to catch those injured CAs.

[Canoerebel]

Screenshot shows damage. They pulled away from Adak, which is a level 5 port, but that's okay. Even if they had remained in port and rearmed, I wouldn't send them forward. Forward means four big enemy airbases, Half KB, and probably a number of combat TFs. Better to retire, repair, and come back soon.

The Allies get 11 DDs in the next 30 days. Most of them are Fletchers. Losing Fletchers is tough, but in this case the fight was worth it if it keeps John focused on NoPac.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CA Haguro, Shell hits 29, Torpedo hits 1
CA Mikuma, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 1
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Isokaze, Shell hits 5
DD Shiranui, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
DD Yamakaze

Allied Ships
CLAA San Juan, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DD Fletcher
DD Abbot
DD Chevalier, Shell hits 3
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1
DD Renshaw, Shell hits 1
DD Taylor
DD Frazier, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage later sank
DD Worden


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami
DD Isokaze

Allied Ships
DD Worden, Shell hits 24, and is sunk


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami
DD Isokaze

Allied Ships
xAK Bald Eagle, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Trade Wind, Shell hits 13, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 161,52, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi, Shell hits 1
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu, Shell hits 4
DD Kishinami, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Isokaze, Shell hits 13, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Abbot, Shell hits 3
DD Chevalier
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
DD Renshaw, Shell hits 2
DD Taylor, Shell hits 1

Not a bad result considering your torpedoes are not yet up to snuff.

[anarchyintheuk]

Even better, Burke's still alive.

[Canoerebel]

6/20/43

Operation Circus: KB moves a bit SE of Attu, its strike aircraft hitting a handful of LST and xAK trying to sneak in to Ulak Island parts of a Marine CD unit and a base force. I'm nearly positive that KB is moving offensively in this region (as opposed to beginning a sprint to the south). But that's the most important item this turn - and I'll know with more certainty tomorrow.

I had hoped to use the "lull" following yesterday's surface combat action to get a few troops forward, but KB spoiled that idea. I'm going to cease shipping operations forward of Dutch Harbor for awhile. John has alot of firepower here with KB and a host of subs (which also picked off an LST near Kodiak). But I'm glad the subs are concentrating here where I can see them.

Amchitka airfield hit again. P47 and P38G sweeps again get the best of the defenders (Tojos and Tonys), prompting John to remark how he likes fighting over his own bases since pilot losses are lower.

Operation Roller Coaster: Loading amphibs commences tonight - those targeting the first-assault beaches. I think all combat ships and carriers will be available day after tomorrow, but the amphibs will begin departing as soon as possible. A base force moved forward from Pago Pago to Canton, so the Allies now have PBYs operating out of Nadi, Suva, Wallis Island, Canton Island, and Johnson Island.

Battle of Sumatra: Five BBs bombard Sabang. Supply is at 19.5k. Allied AV up to 1500. No attacks today. SigInt shows an arty unit inbound to Langsa, which possibly means John thinks he needs more firepower at Sabang. Supply should run out around month's end or shortly thereafter, at which time everything becomes moot.

SoPac: Troops are prepping in this region with one African division inbound. No operations will take place anytime soon, but this will be a theater of operations in the autumn. John sent two tank units forward to Tennant Creek, where Allied 2EB and 4EB have been able to muss them up pretty bad. Their deliberate attack on an Aussie brigade (militia only) at Tennant Creek failed and now John is withdrawing the units due tot he air threat. Allied F3Fs here knocked down a bunch of Helens and Sallys yesterday.

[Canoerebel]

So, what's John up to, what's he thinking near term, and what's he think I'm up to?

With Sumatra about to wind up, he'll find himself with alot of infantry and at least seven BBs that are once again available for duty elsewhere. Where does he go and what does he do?

And what does he think I've done with my carriers since I pulled them back from the Aleutians several weeks back? Does he think they're at a West Coast port? Or has he guessed that I'm moving somewhere else, with CenPac an obvious candidate? To me, this possibility screams out "Yes! That's exactly what Dan's doing!" so I can't imagine he'll leave KB in NoPac with a big Allied offensive about to get underway to the south.

I don't think John can get frisky in the IO or SWPac (Oz) without his carriers. But he might cherry pick. Diego Garcia is a possible candidate (not likely, but possible). Same with Ramree island. And he might like the idea of hitting the Perth sector. If he shifts KB this way then a move on Ceylon or NE India is possible (but unlikely since they are hard targets).

If Roller Coaster proceeds and is successful, John is more likely to react defensively and concentrate on meeting the Allies in battle. Over the coming three months, I envision most combat taking place in CenPac and NoPac. As I've mentioned before, I will probably seek to bring about a large carrier battle in the western Aleutians since it's close to big Allied bases. I think John will elect to stay and fight here, reaciting violently to Allied moves (though one decent strategy for him would be to pull out his troops and concentrate his defenses in the Kuriles and vicinity - this I don't think he'll do). So I look for a big naval battle in NoPac (unless things go sour in CenPac so that I'm tucking my tail in for many months).

I don't think John can or will try a big counteroffensive in the Aleutians, though I'm prepared for that possibility. I'm not sure about CenPac. If the Allies succeed in a big way there, John might combine all his forces to counterattack (if he does that, though, I'll sprint back to NoPac and force him to chase me).

I think he has good defenses in the Marshalls and Gilberts, including CD guns and interlocking airfields. But unless he gets KB (or at least a very strong Half KB) down here, the Allies should be able to overwhelm the Japanese in a manner somewhat similar to what just happened in the Aleutians (though his defensive configuration is better concentrated than it was in the more linear Aleutians).

[poodlebrain]

Amchitka airfield hit again. P47 and P38G sweeps again get the best of the defenders (Tojos and Tonys), prompting John to remark how he likes fighting over his own bases since pilot losses are lower.

Can you inflict losses faster than your opponent can replace them with sweeps? If so, then you might not want to bombard the airfield into inoperability. Port strikes to screw up logistics can neutralize his naval power that is the greater threat at this time, and reduced supply handling may delay airplane replacements..