The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BillBrown]

I agree with witpqs, John doesn't need any other reason than Banzai He only wants to kill things, no other reason is important. [:D]

[Lecivius]

Don't sell him out. He loves his toys, and tear the wings off of allied butterflies, but he likes to win too [;)]

[witpqs]

Mine was a poke of good nature. Of course, he might see something in a Burma move that does not stand out here, or that many of us would not agree with.

[Canoerebel]

We discussed "where does John go from here" a few pages back. I think he is somewhat limited by lack of carriers. I doubt he'll forge deeply into the unknown without them. But there are some candidates like Diego Garcia, Ramree Island (and Assam) and the Perth region that might draw his attention.

India would be a very tough thing for him to try now. Many of his divisions in Sumatra are relatively beaten up. Second, the Allies have a stout army with lots of forts and a big airforce in this theater. For instance, Calcutta has 500 AV behind six forts. Viz and Coconado have good garrisons and forts.

I am modestly concerned about an invasion of Chittagong or Cox's Bazaar to isolate the Allied armies at Akyab and Ramree. But each of these position is pretty strongly held and under a big air umbrella.

But more than anything, I think I know John. He's a navy man. He thinks navy. He thinks oceans. He thinks islands. And if the Allies are pressing forward in the Aluetians or CenPac, and if the Allied navy is there, then I think John will be drawn there.

We'll know soon. When Sabang falls, I think we'll next see those seven BBs (or most of them) in the Pacific.

I may be wrong, but the Allies do have good defenses in depth and have been building forts and stockpiling supply since the start of the game. As another for instance, India has a bunch of Sea Bee uinits working at small, interior, obscure bases to help protect against paratroop assaults.

I bet the coming months sees a concentrations of forces and sharp action in the Pacific.

[Canoerebel]

6/29/43

Operation Roller Coaster: The carriers and other advance TFs move to a point just a few hexes NE of Maloelap. John stood down his Judys (because he lost 9 yesterday) and didn't get any detection on any of these TFs. He did get detection of the trailing pod of amphibs and supports ships. So he has an idea, but probably not with precision.

No interference at all with the Allied TFs today. All heck may break loose tomorrow...or not. We'll see.

I've reconfigured the reconfigured initial assault. Tonight, a bombardment TF and fast transport TF (with imbadded slow BB) will hit Wotje (to gauge strength, primarily). Another bombardment TF and an assault TF will hit Maleolap. These will give me pretty good ideas as to the strength of John's defenses. If things go well, then Jaluit, Mili and Ailingalap would probably be targeted day after tomorrow.

I don't know if there are carriers down here or not. I don't think so, but we've all had the experience of thinking one thing and enduring another. But Half KB North remains in the Aleutians.

Operation Circus: IN CB and CA TF bombard Adak Island to little effect. The Allies have stood down near the front for a few days, but troop repositioning continues further back. Arleigh Burke and four Fletchers leave Seattle tonight for Kodiak. As noted, John is maintaing a strong naval presence here. I don't see where he can have offensive ambitions (nearly all of the good Alled bases are too strongly held for him to move against), so his purpose is either defensive or hoping for opportunities to engage in naval battles.

Battle of Sumatra: On the west road, 2nd IJA Tank Div. and an infantry division are unable to punch though a small Allied force that remained when 1st Marine Div. pulled out. The strongest of the Allied units is an Aussie engineer (40 AV). This is an indication of how beaten up some of the IJA divisions are.

No attack at Sabang. I think a big bombardment will come tomorrow along with a strong attack. Sabang may well fall on the last day of June.

One other note about Alfred's synopsis. There are seven Allied divisions here by number (plus scattered other units), but not by strength. Most of the Allied units are half strength or less. So this will be a serious defeat (heck, maybe a historic one), but not as great as the division numbers suggest.

[crsutton]

Too late to go to India in mid 1943. The Japanese army would break their teeth there. It is just ideal tank country and the three Indian army tank brigades are by now the best units on the map. Throw in some American and Australian tank units and it is just a recipe for disaster. And unless the Japanese player were ready to commit to keeping KB permanently in the theater. Any Japanese in India and Burma are too easy to outflank.

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Mine was a poke of good nature. Of course, he might see something in a Burma move that does not stand out here, or that many of us would not agree with.

Of course we are all just poking fun at John.

[Lecivius]

Poking fun at John is a favorite AE pastime [:D]

That fortress at Wotje is gonna stab you, methinks. It is a tough nut.

[Alfred]

I see the map on post #5271 and see many strategically profitable opportunities for Japan to use the assets released from Sabang.  Most of those opportunities entail no risk.
 
1.  Just as Canoerebel is receiving advice in his AAR from third parties on what grounds can one postulate the view the same thing is no happening in his opponent's AAR.  That being so why assume that good advice is not being proffered there and that John will not heed it.
 
2.  It is irrelevant the strength and size of the Allied units which will surrender at Sabang.  What is relevant is they will be removed from the OOB.  Unless The Allies have hidden in a rear area base a cadre of each of the units amounting to about 40% of the unit's TOE, these surrendered units are not going to be able to make a useful return to the battle field for 4-6 months minimum.  And for those who don't bother checking up on the facts, just the infantry units involved are:
 
20 Ind Div
99 Ind Bde
18 Brit Div
503 Para Rgt
32 Inf Div
27 Inf Div
1 Mar Div
164 Inf Rgt
182 Inf Rgt
132 Inf Rgt
 
 
The 9th and 21st Mar Rgt had a fragment present at Sabang.  Where the parents were I don't know so I don't factor them in to the diminution of the OOB.
 
3.  The Japanese units shown in post #5238 are not that beat up.  Look at their unadjusted AV.  That is enough to defeat the 500 AV at Calcutta.  What they are missing from their TOE they can fully recover in 2-4 months minimum less time than the resurrected Allied units can enter the battlefield.  Their adjusted AV will be far higher if fighting in the temperate climes of Calcutta.
 
4.  From the strategic map there are 4 profitable land operations open to Japan.
 
(a) overland to Ramree and create another Allied pocket just like Sabang
 
(b) punch north of Magwee to either capture the oil and fuel of Ledo or swing down on Cox/Chittagong
 
(c) roll up China from the west via Paoshan
 
(d)  roll up China from the south via Tuyun
 
Really no need for the IJN to be present but keeping some of the IJN surface fleet to suppress Ramree could be entertained.  But if Japan wants to involve the IJN, there are some other additional opportunities albeit with greater but not necessarily unacceptable risk.
 
5.  Why has there been no fighting in Burma for months.  Well the obvious answer is that both sides are equally matched.  Japan can however introduce all the freed up LCUs at any single point it desires and smash through what is in situ.  The Allied forces currently present in India may be sturdy today when Sabang remains Allied but there will be no reinforcements to match the Japanese reinforcements.  No Allied reinforcements because
 
(a) the destroyed units are off the OOB for 4-6 months
(b) most of the destroyed units will take about 2 months to reach the CBI frontlines
(c) the strategic Allied reserve is known to be deployed in the Aleutians and soon will be seen to be deployed in the Marshalls
 
6.  So why would a good strategic Japanese player waste time and fuel to relocate to meet the Allies where they are strong just to recover some coral and rocks which mean nothing to Japan.  Why seek battle in the east where a lopsided IJN victory is not guaranteed, where the most likely outcome is a degree of attrition which does not benefit Japan to recover some rocks and coral which can never be held unless the KB is permanently parked there.  Parking the KB there, just to protect rocks and coral surrenders the initiative and when that occurs, Japan has lost the war.
 
7.  As to those saying Japan taking any offensive action is pointless, well by the same logic, attacking on 7 December 1941 is just as pointless.  Strong strategic Japanese players know there are good offensive opportunities in 1943.  Especially when they are playing a souped up Japanese mod.
 
Alfred 
 

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

I see the map on post #5271 and see many strategically profitable opportunities for Japan to use the assets released from Sabang.  Most of those opportunities entail no risk.

1.  Just as Canoerebel is receiving advice in his AAR from third parties on what grounds can one postulate the view the same thing is no happening in his opponent's AAR.  That being so why assume that good advice is not being proffered there and that John will not heed it.

2.  It is irrelevant the strength and size of the Allied units which will surrender at Sabang.  What is relevant is they will be removed from the OOB.  Unless The Allies have hidden in a rear area base a cadre of each of the units amounting to about 40% of the unit's TOE, these surrendered units are not going to be able to make a useful return to the battle field for 4-6 months minimum.  And for those who don't bother checking up on the facts, just the infantry units involved are:

20 Ind Div
99 Ind Bde
18 Brit Div
503 Para Rgt
32 Inf Div
27 Inf Div
1 Mar Div
164 Inf Rgt
182 Inf Rgt
132 Inf Rgt


The 9th and 21st Mar Rgt had a fragment present at Sabang.  Where the parents were I don't know so I don't factor them in to the diminution of the OOB.

3.  The Japanese units shown in post #5238 are not that beat up.  Look at their unadjusted AV.  That is enough to defeat the 500 AV at Calcutta.  What they are missing from their TOE they can fully recover in 2-4 months minimum less time than the resurrected Allied units can enter the battlefield.  Their adjusted AV will be far higher if fighting in the temperate climes of Calcutta.

4.  From the strategic map there are 4 profitable land operations open to Japan.

(a) overland to Ramree and create another Allied pocket just like Sabang

(b) punch north of Magwee to either capture the oil and fuel of Ledo or swing down on Cox/Chittagong

(c) roll up China from the west via Paoshan

(d)  roll up China from the south via Tuyun

Really no need for the IJN to be present but keeping some of the IJN surface fleet to suppress Ramree could be entertained.  But if Japan wants to involve the IJN, there are some other additional opportunities albeit with greater but not necessarily unacceptable risk.

5.  Why has there been no fighting in Burma for months.  Well the obvious answer is that both sides are equally matched.  Japan can however introduce all the freed up LCUs at any single point it desires and smash through what is in situ.  The Allied forces currently present in India may be sturdy today when Sabang remains Allied but there will be no reinforcements to match the Japanese reinforcements.  No Allied reinforcements because

(a) the destroyed units are off the OOB for 4-6 months
(b) most of the destroyed units will take about 2 months to reach the CBI frontlines
(c) the strategic Allied reserve is known to be deployed in the Aleutians and soon will be seen to be deployed in the Marshalls

6.  So why would a good strategic Japanese player waste time and fuel to relocate to meet the Allies where they are strong just to recover some coral and rocks which mean nothing to Japan.  Why seek battle in the east where a lopsided IJN victory is not guaranteed, where the most likely outcome is a degree of attrition which does not benefit Japan to recover some rocks and coral which can never be held unless the KB is permanently parked there.  Parking the KB there, just to protect rocks and coral surrenders the initiative and when that occurs, Japan has lost the war.

7.  As to those saying Japan taking any offensive action is pointless, well by the same logic, attacking on 7 December 1941 is just as pointless.  Strong strategic Japanese players know there are good offensive opportunities in 1943.  Especially when they are playing a souped up Japanese mod.

Alfred 

Allies losses are not to be discounted but as said before they are dispersed between nationalities. Indian army losses are light and the Indian army has recently been reinforced by a first class European division and a green African division. The British division is probably never to be rebuilt though. By mid 43 the Indian army is plenty strong to fend off any Japanese incursion. Once again, at this stage of the war Japanese tank units become all but useless and CR will not lose any serious armor assets. You are correct in that CR has to be careful of getting trapped at Akyab but otherwise as the Allied player I would welcome an incursion in Burma or even up to Ledo. I am always prepared to lose China and Burma, Ledo and any portion of the area around Imphal has no strategic value at all in 1943. In fact once China is lost, Burma has no value to the Allies. As for Calcutta or Chittagong I do not think it is viable at this point. Even under the best of circumstances they would just be trading assets and that will not work for John. Not to mention the drain on Japanese supply and fuel.

John would really have to move fast (which he is capable of) but the Allies will start to tip the scales in carrier strength in a few months. I would be wary to have ground forces in India by 1/44, so any incursion would have to be short lived and serve what purpose. I just don't see any strategic rewards in India to merit the risk. The Allies can lose China and win the war, so I don't think CR would sweat that.

But I do agree with you that with his freed up infantry in Sumatra and considering his carrier strength at this point John has a lot of options. But if it were me, India would not be one of them.

[Canoerebel]

All of these units have been in Sumatra since November 10 (except the Indian division and Indian brigade, which arrived later that month or in December). By January, I recognized that supply was my limiting factor rather than combat strength. So I turned off reinforcements and upgrades (with a few exceptions). And there's been little fighting since then, so that the British and Indian pools have been building. It will take time to rebuild these divisions, of course, but it't not like I'm losing full-strength divisions and have stripped the cupboard bare.

And some of John's divisions have been taking a pounding. He's been rotating them in and out. Others (especially Imperial Guards) were beat up badly early and are now rebuilt. But the bottom line is that it will take some time for John to rebuild his army from those divisions. In the meantime, defenses in India will continue to get stronger.

I don't doubt that John might target Ramree and Assam, but they are well defended and he'll have a tough fight. And those places don't figure into my plans for at least the balance of this year.

Right now my focus is the Japanese navy. That's John's achille's heel, so I want to seek batlte in the Pacific. Unless John has a real change of heart, that's where he's going to want to fight too.

[Canoerebel]

John had to go to work, so I re-opened the turn and am fiddling a bit with orders, changing some (or all) of the invasion plans for tomorrow. I'll post in more detail when I make final decisions and send the turn back to John. I'm not sure when he's off, but perhaps we'll have a turn done sometime this evening.

[Canoerebel]

Final decisions made. One APD will carry a cadre of a 'chutes battaliion to Majuro to see if it's vacant (it hasn't been built up at all and it doesn't start with a CD unit, so there's a chance that it's open). A BB TF will bombard Maloelap to suppress the airfield (hopefully) and to gauge the shore guns. The float plans on most BBs will fly recon missions over Maloelap, Mili, Wotje and Jaluit. And the bulk of the TFs will move a bit to the SW, essentially into the gap between Maloelap and Majuro. This is all in preparation for the commencement of amphibious assaults day after tomorrow.

The biggest questions I have are: (1) Will a Half KB strike? and (2) will LBA sortie?

Based upon everything I'm seeing, I don't think there's a Half KB here, but I'm not positive. So, as you might expect, the pucker factor is high.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
And some of John's divisions have been taking a pounding. He's been rotating them in and out. Others (especially Imperial Guards) were beat up badly early and are now rebuilt. But the bottom line is that it will take some time for John to rebuild his army from those divisions. In the meantime, defenses in India will continue to get stronger.

Think that thru again.[:)]

Great manpower locations to replace destroyed devices nearby. Rangoon/Moulmein; Singers; Saigon, Java, Hong Kong. If John knows what he is doing it won't take long.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Final decisions made. One APD will carry a cadre of a 'chutes battaliion to Majuro to see if it's vacant (it hasn't been built up at all and it doesn't start with a CD unit, so there's a chance that it's open). A BB TF will bombard Maloelap to suppress the airfield (hopefully) and to gauge the shore guns. The float plans on most BBs will fly recon missions over Maloelap, Mili, Wotje and Jaluit. And the bulk of the TFs will move a bit to the SW, essentially into the gap between Maloelap and Majuro. This is all in preparation for the commencement of amphibious assaults day after tomorrow.

The biggest questions I have are: (1) Will a Half KB strike? and (2) will LBA sortie?

Based upon everything I'm seeing, I don't think there's a Half KB here, but I'm not positive. So, as you might expect, the pucker factor is high.

Lots of talk about keeping up the LCUs, but what I haven't seen discussed much is the weakness that doomed the Sumatra operation - aircraft. Japan gets almost limitless aircraft. Are you confident the allies can fend off a sustained air counter-offensive in the Marshalls/Gilberts once you land? There are bound to be some IJA airfields left after your initial conquests. And it takes 3-4 days to get your airfields well established (after bombing/bombardment damage) so KB will likely be there by then.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies are okay in the air now, especially in an island-centered campaign. Production is much different that it was in early '43 what with the Hellcats already online and P-47s to start in two days. The Allied airforce can hold its own as shown in recent weeks in the Aleutians (and really as show in Sumatra until bombardments closed the airfield).

[Canoerebel]

Lowpe, I know he can rebuild his units. It's just going to take time. I can't see him waging war in India. Assam and China, yes.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We discussed "where does John go from here" a few pages back. I think he is somewhat limited by lack of carriers. I doubt he'll forge deeply into the unknown without them. But there are some candidates like Diego Garcia, Ramree Island (and Assam) and the Perth region that might draw his attention.

India would be a very tough thing for him to try now. Many of his divisions in Sumatra are relatively beaten up. Second, the Allies have a stout army with lots of forts and a big airforce in this theater. For instance, Calcutta has 500 AV behind six forts. Viz and Coconado have good garrisons and forts.

I am modestly concerned about an invasion of Chittagong or Cox's Bazaar to isolate the Allied armies at Akyab and Ramree. But each of these position is pretty strongly held and under a big air umbrella.

But more than anything, I think I know John. He's a navy man. He thinks navy. He thinks oceans. He thinks islands. And if the Allies are pressing forward in the Aluetians or CenPac, and if the Allied navy is there, then I think John will be drawn there.

We'll know soon. When Sabang falls, I think we'll next see those seven BBs (or most of them) in the Pacific.

I may be wrong, but the Allies do have good defenses in depth and have been building forts and stockpiling supply since the start of the game. As another for instance, India has a bunch of Sea Bee uinits working at small, interior, obscure bases to help protect against paratroop assaults.

I bet the coming months sees a concentrations of forces and sharp action in the Pacific.

Dont forget that JIII, like yourself, gets a lot of advice from the peanut gallery. He might decide that its time to experiment.

edit Whoops, I notice Alfred slips this in as well.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not likely to forget that John might do the unexpected. In my first WitP game with him, he invaded India in 1944 (as we've discussed in here on several occasions).

[Canoerebel]

A visual on the eve of amphibious operations.