The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Eric, I understand your thinking.

But I think the Allies are winning the game. Not in terms of VP right now, of course. But in terms of setting things up so that the Allies can prosecute the war - wage war - from an advantageous position in '43 and '44. John's lost a lot of his capital ships and some important territory that protected his vital territory. More importantly, he failed to engage and attrit Allied carrier power. I think he has to do that and soon, or the Allies will be able to island-hop and island-take him to death.

Since it's still a carrier war, things can change and quick. But I think I've outplayed John and have him where I want him.

(That's pretty brash to come right out and say that, but it's my genuine belief.)

[Canoerebel]

7/17/43

Now that I've plainly stated my qualifications to run in the Republican primaries in Colorado, New York, and Gardner Island, I shall henceforth return to a discussion of the game, praying that the AE Fates do not hammer my hubris by unleashing a reign of bad luck.

Roller Coaster: A good quiet day with no sub attacks or anything else untoward. Many ships are at Pearl now, including BB North Carolina which needs a week or ten days for upgrades. Washington and Resolution will arrive in a day or two.

Aircraft - mainly Kiwi - continue to fly in from the south. I'm aware of the Moose's admonition about loading up airfields with enemy BBs possible, but I have enough airfields to permit good dispersal.

One of the two damaged APAs sprung more leaks, but my fingers remain crossed.

Circus: No bombardments of Adak Island and no sign of carriers. Adak goes to level four forts. Five Fletchers are reunited at Kodiak. I'm mulling over whether to do their 7/43 upgrades or whether to move them to Adak to allow Allied air to reassert its dominance of Amchitka. Dutch Harbor garrison at 37k.

Australia: An East African division is inbound and will arrive in a week or less. This unit is (eventually) to help with mopping up what should be isolated Japanese garrisons in New Caledonia, etc. But in the short term it'll help with security if John casts an eye this way. I've dispersed some units in accordance with my belief that a Japanese move would more than like begin in the west or south as opposed to the east. Plenty of Allied aircraft here.

Ceylon: Colombo has about 500 AV including two Marine regiments. The other bases are weakly held, but each has a CB unit building forts. The idea would be to strat move to any port threatened with invasion. Colombo has 500 fighters and lots of bombers. John can overwhelm, but it's not a freebie.

India: The east and northeast coasts are well protected, and many interior bases have garrisons and forts against para-assaults. Calcutta has a host of bombers and some fighters. A few other bombers and the like are scattered about. Defenses are strong, but John can create bulges.

Assam: I've ordered some units out of Ramree. It'll take awhile, but I think I have at least that much time. A battle-weakened US RCT defends the outpost. I've switched on reinforcements so that the garrison will have decent strength. I'm satisfied that Akyab, Cox's Bazaar and Chittagong have or soon will have garrisons sufficient to handle invasions. So the main threat will be by land campaigns.

China: I've spent a week's worth of turns looking for ways to shore up defenses. There are weak points where five enemy divisions can overwhelm the local defenses, so I need to work some on local and area reserves. But overall the perimeter is fairly strong.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

CD units would have done little or nothing against naval bombardments at Sabang. What they might have done is destroy mine sweepers clearing mines at Sabang, but only if naval bombardments had not rendered them ineffective first. Sabang is clear terrain, and CD units would have been hammered by those naval bombardments just like all the other units were.

And if CR had one handy in late 1942 on that side of the world. They can be a bear to unload too.

[Canoerebel]

Good point. I probably had the Nav Support to get anything ashore at Sabang. What I didn't have was the Nav Support to upload those units where they were at the time - several were at Ramree Island (and remain there today) and several at Diego Garcia to guard that flank (had John countered the invasion by taking Diego, my position would have been very tenuous).

Most importantly, at the time I could bring in units to Sumatra, I had multiple ports and didn't have a clear picture that it was going to end up being a seven month siege of Sabang on which the campaign turned. I didn't have enough CD units to distribute to each port, so it wasn't a high priority item. By the time it became one, I no longer had a good LOC into Sabang (and, as noted, didn't have CD units readily available).

On a separate note, I agree with JeffK that the Malayan op was a big mistake. That was all on me. Nemo did a good job selling it. Nemo knew exactly how it might work effectively. But I didn't see it and ended up dispersing my forces ineffectively.

[Canoerebel]

P.S. SigInt today that a Japanese artillery unit is prepping for Ramree Island. Might be misinformation. Might not be.

[tacticon]

First, I want to say that I have been lurking on Pacwar sites since the forums were first on the Genie boards. So it takes something special to get me to post. Great AAR, I’ll read John’s after the surrender. I am amused by the discussion about whether the expense of 5 allied divisions plus support was worth the expense of tying up Japan for the bulk of 1942. It most undoubtedly was.
Why have house rules to maximize a Japanese players “Realism Experience” and play with PDU on which creates a fantasy world. There is no way a Nakajima factory is going to make Mitsubishi engines as reliable as Mitsubishi. There should be a slight maintenance penalty for every aircraft that uses parts made under contract. Furthermore if you switch the Nakajima factory to Zeros, you should no longer accumulate R&D points for later Nakajima models. If Boeing were forced to switch production to the new B-24s, there would never have been the B-29.
Another thing that I would change with PDU on is to randomize the plane stats a little. The stats don’t lock in until after a 100 combat missions. Every aircraft sales guy is going to present his company’s products in the best possible light. So in order to prevent getting stuck with a lemon, the military buys its products from multiple sources. This would put the Japanese player in a real world decision making mode or is that a little too much realism.
I don’t think that the extra ships that come to Japan without a cost. At the very least should be the loss of the Dec 7th Surprise. I think the allies would be extra vigilant in the light of an expanded IJN ship building program.
So Canorebel, you have played with handicaps while giving your opponent multiple bonuses. The fact that you have played him so well is truly a credit to your skill and a text book for allied play. I wonder how many more losses you would have sustained if you tried to fight defensively.
Tacticon,
Greatest lurker in the forum!

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, tacticon. Sincere encouraging words are most welcome.

[Canoerebel]

7/18/43

Roller Coaster: An unusual event happened today. A decent-sized, unescorted Japanese transport TF arriving at dot-hex Abemama (just south of Tarawa) was ambushed by Allied air. This kind of thing - trying to sneak in reinforcements on the quiet and getting whacked for the effort - is not an unusual experience for the Allies, but I don't see it often for Japan. I'd had SigInt about a merchant inbound, so I had three or four SBD squadrons and escorts at Tarawa. John did not CAP the TF from Tabituea. Eight xAK and four xAKL arrived; three xAK and three xAKL were sunk; the other ships were heavily damaged. Combat report shows the following squads/devices destroyed: combat (9), non combat (165), engineers (37), guns (13), vehicles (5). I don't think any troops came ashore.

The effort to occupy Abemama combined with SigInt (including today's report that 56th Div. is inbound to Ponape) suggest that John does intend to defend forward, which I expected and which I think I prefer.

More Allied ships reached Pearl. The carriers will arrive tomorrow. Only two are due for upgrades - Lexington for October '42; Wasp for April '43. So day after tomorrow I'll have a better feel for when the Allied fleet will be ready for action again.

CVs Olustee and Kettle Creek will leave Balboa for Pearl tomorrow in the company of CA Baltimore, CL Mobile, and four DDs.

Circus: Most of 138th RCT is prepped for Roi Namur and posted in the Marshalls, but a fragment (18 AV) is at Dora up here. Transports are en route from Kodiak to take it south.

KB: No sign of enemy carriers for the past week. My guess is that it's in CenPac, though John might use them to spring a major move on Oz or India. I'll keep my eyes open.

Carnival/Thin Man: Tough decision coming about whether to focus next on the Marshalls (Thin Man) or the western Aleutians (Carnival). I prefer to move in the Marshalls, which are close and have a circular arrangement in which Allied bases are more numerous. I might have enough troops to move on Roi Namur short term, but not on Kwaj. But I also need some major redeployment of troops - Jaluit is way overloaded and other units (especially 7th USA Div.) were divided to handle various pressing matters and are thus scattered. So Carnival might have a multi-prong objective: (1) show up in great strength in the Marshalls, thus drawing John's full attention and probably a strong reaction if he's wired to respond to any threat there; (2) invade Roi Namur; (3) bring lots of transports loaded with supply that will unload and then load troops for repositioning or retrieval to Pearl. That is not a hugely exciting mission from an invasion standpoint, but it might really draw John.

On the flip side, Carnival has plenty of troops available and is ready to go whenever the carriers and combat ships are available. The drawback is that this is a linear campaign in which John has strong outposts in the western isles. Too, my main infantry unit is 5th Indian Div., a powerful division with high experience. I wanted to wait to use it, hoping that John would make his decisions (about where to go next, with the wheels already long in motion, before I reveal it. He'll know that India is more open when he sees this unit in NoPac. On the other hand, Amchitka is close to strong Allied bases and doesn't involve moving deep into Indian country.

I'm not sure yet which way I'm going to go. Any appearance by KB in the meantime will be an important factor.

[ny59giants]

I just looked ahead in my game and see that you should have gotten a nice number of DDs and DEs a few days ago. The American naval building program has just shifted into another gear for you.

Go get him!!

[BillBrown]

September 1943 is a big month for the Allies. Torpedoes work at full potential, DDs and DEs come in droves for the rest of the war. 4E bombers start coming in at high levels. Lots of things happening.

[BBfanboy]

By the numbers in that convoy I would say you whacked a BF. Good Job!
Landing a BF instead of combat troops means he wants to build up air base or port to fight you. This sounds like exactly the kind of battle you wanted, drawing IJ aircraft and ships into the grinder. Subs could be a headache though, if he can rearm them at Truk or Rabaul. Don't think he will risk an AS at Ponape or Kusaie Island.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I agree, Poodle. I've felt the same way, though unable to express it as well as you just did.

I look at how this game has developed and where the two sides stand, and I think the Allies are in great position and that this is the finest game that I've played.

Then I read negative comments from Forumites and scratch my head. Yaab says I've played sloppily. John Dillworth, a long-standing forum friend, tells me I seem to be be off my game. Alfred notes the great cost of the defeat in Sumatra and says I'm understimating it. These and others are valued members of the community and entitled to express their opinions. But I still say, "Huh?"

I think part of it may be that certain players read only occasionally or haphazardly or don't have encyclopedic knowledge of such an immense game. So Jeff posts yesteday that one of the problems with Sabang's defense was that there weren't any mines or ACMs. There were, of course, but he'd forgotten: 962 mines at one point protected by two ACM that ripped many a Japanese destroyer. Other players read of the fall of Sabang and the immense cost paid and think it was a mortal blow. And others are reading mainly from John's perspective, take note his excitement and achievements, and perhaps don't have a firm grasp on the overall picture.

John III is currently involved in three games against experienced players. He's taken on Herbie in a Scenario 1 match, meaning its a stock game in which Japan doesn't have any mod-bequeathed advantages. It's early in that game, but already Australia seems to be under siege with John pursuing his usual tactics of terror.

He's facing Michael (NYGiants) in a mod (Between the Storms, I think) that is a bit of a toned down version of Reluctant Admiral. Michael has far more knowledge of game mechanics and how to maximize forces and use HQs than I do. Due to the modifications, he has enhanced fighter pools. (I know he had three P38 squadrons operating in the Aleutians at one time to devastating effect, when I could barely cobble together one in my game due to the lower replacement rate. I was most envious of him.) In that game, John was his usual aggessive-self an conquered Hawaii (I think that's right) and most of SoPac. It's February '43 and Michael is preparing to begin his counterattack from over near map's edge. He's trailing my game by five months. He might way outperform me from this point forward. But he has alot of territory to reclaim.

And in this game? As we've noted before (but its worth stating again), John hasn't gone anywhere beyond the standard areas of conquest you'd expect in any Scenario 1 match. He hasn't invadaded India, Ceylon, the Perth region, the Line Islands, Hawaii, Midway, or the upper Aleutians. Why? He has the most enhanced OOB and fighter pool disparity possible, and he's playing a mod that he designed.

I think the answer is that while he's about as aggressive a player as there is, I was more aggressive than he was.

The Allies invaded the Middle Aluetians in the Spring of '42; Assam in the Summer of '42; the Gilberts in the Summer of '42; threatened to invade the Aluetians and then New Guinea in summer and fall of '42; and then invaded Sumatra in the Autumn of '42. Just when John was ready to expand beyond his deepest penetrations (the New Hebrides), he started reacting to Allied invasions. He's never stopped.

As a result of fighting fire with fire - of being aggressive against a most aggressive player - the Allies have incurred plenty of losses. But these losses were with a purpose and with good effect.

Lowpe (and perhaps Obvert?) make the good point that it can benefit a Japanese player (mainly from an economic standpoint deeper in the game) to play within a tighter perimeter. But this is not the case here. John has not chosen to play within a tighter perimeter. Instead, he's spent the entire game reacting and overreacting to Allied invasions here and there, hither and yon. I don't presume to know whether this has had a material effect on his future economy, but it's certainly not a case where he's sat back and efficiently attended to his defenses.

I knew Sumatra was a lost cause in January '43 unless I committed 100% to focus on its relief. I decided then to follow another course - to take advantage of John's preoccupation with Sumatra to strike elsewhere. By doing so, I knew I was consigning Sumatra to ultimate defeat. But I felt like the sum total would be of decisive benefit to the Allies. So when Sumatra finally fell - months after I most optimistically estimated - it was not the end of the world. By then, the Allies had already used its diversionary nature to very good effect.

I am aware of the costs (well, mostly I think) the Allies have paid to end up where they are. But I look at what they are and I am very, very pleased. The Allies are in fine position to take the war to Japan.

I am not saying that the game is over or that the Allies have won. There is hard fighting to come; fighting that may go against me and erode the excellent beginning. But I do say that Japan has danced to an Allied tune for more than a year, and the Allies are in as good a position as possible to keep playing the tune that the parties will be dancing to.

Nope, you don't need to convince me. Considering the extra naval assets John has, and the enhanced fighters that DaBabes gives the Japanese player, I would rate your position as excellent. I don't think people understand the advantages that the Japanese player is working with in this game.

I begin to sound like a broken record on this but the only real thing the Allies need to do to win is to not piss away their carrier strength in 1942-43. Any other loss can be dealt with. I posted in John's AAR that I rate the game a draw so far. But I like your position all things considered. The real determination will be who controls the sea. So, now it comes down to who loses the eventual carrier battle.

I don't want this to go to your head but the one thing I have learned from your AARs is that an Allied Sir Robin is not needed or called for. Aggressive moves to take key bases, even if you will eventually lose some troops and ships keeps a Japanese player off balance. No matter the date KB can't be everywhere and you only need to have an idea of where KB is before you move.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
If one thing I would say to Dan is to use your subs to deny John the fuel for his ships. Economics is not a strength of John's even after all my years of mentoring him. [8|]

I am rather firm about the Japanese economy and logistics and in all of Johns actions I usually see the price tag.Add to that 1 million (thats alot for Japan) less supplies at the start and a player who isnt good in handling the economy...
I smell desaster in 1944 for Japan. Maybe earlier if he is really sloppy.

Agree 100%. I don't think many players have the understanding of the issues facing the Japanese economy in 1944-45. Probably because so few games last beyond mid 43. Japanese resources are finite and there is a cost to engaging in drawn out land campaigns and slinging your carriers and BBs all over the map. There is a discussion of a land campaign in China. I would welcome this. There is no real lasting strategic effect for the Allies if they lose China. But a severe blow to the Japanese player if he does not take a godly portion. But to start a serious campaign now will just eat up so much more supply. Supply that has already been spent elsewhere.

[Panther Bait]

Coming in a little late to the discussion, but regarding the loss of the 18th UK in Sumatra (which can likely not be reformed), I think CR made much better use of the 18th in Sumatra then the British did in Singapore in real life. And they never rebuilt the 18th, either.

Mike

[Canoerebel]

7/19/43

Interesting to read so many informed opinions regarding where the game stands and where it goes from here. Thanks, everyone, for taking time to share your thoughts.

Roller Coaster: A badly damaged AKE slips under the waves. On the credit side, a moderately damaged APA will reach Pearl Harbor tomorrow. The seriously damaged APA is struggling along with one escort. It won't reach Pearl for at least a week. If she makes it, that will be cause for a private celebration.

The carriers didn't quite reach Pearl overnight, but more BBs did. Pearl's going to be flush with shipping for awhile. Most of the upgrades going on are relatively quick pierside jobs. At least two of the BBs (Resolution and probably South Dakota) will move on to a West Coast port facility for repairs. Washington, North Carolina and Indianapolis are quick jobs that will be handled locally.

CVs Kettle Creek and Olustee will depart Balboa tomorrow.

I have serious supply issues at Jaluit due to overstackign. I think the base will run out before my carriers are ready to head back to cover a large supply, troop withdrawal armada. I suppose the thing to do is to send a modest package of supply in the company of a decent combat TF. It worries me to press good ships forward knowing that John can and probably will turn the region into a hornet's nest sometime soon, but at the same time the Allies have so many airfields that John probably can't get too frisky.

I think that a strong BB TF will bombard Tarawa in the not-too-distant future. John will want payback for yesterday's troop ship debacle.

Circus: Five Fletchers under Arleigh Burke will move from Kodiak to Umnak. This is the first stage in what will be a little op to protect and mine Adak, reinsert stout CAP, and resume hitting Amchitka. An IJ sub picked of an xAK carrying some devices near Kodiak.

[Capt. Harlock]

I think CR made much better use of the 18th in Sumatra then the British did in Singapore in real life. And they never rebuilt the 18th, either.

Sound point. I doubt the British replacement sqads and equipment will be going to waste without that one unit!

[Canoerebel]

7/20/43

Roller Coaster: SBDs sink a damaged IJN sub at Kwajalein. A good USN Fletcher DD TF is inbound from Pearl. The mission is to see if John reacts fiercely. If not, I'll bring in some supply and some xAPs to withdraw some excess units (especially at Jaluit). Kwaj and Roi-Namur have 6k stacking limits and do not seem garrisoned to the teeth - each at or slightly over the limit.

Circus: A Fletcher DD TF will arrive at Umnak tonight. I think an IJN bombardment TF will hit Adak tomorrow. If it doesn't trash the airfield, the Fletchers will move to Adak the following turn. Then I'll load up the airfield and bring in the minelayers. Dutch Harbor, with 35k stacking limit, now has 35.7k troops. So that behind-the-scenes mission is nearly complete (and with essentially no losses taken). So Circus is complete now. From this point forward, I'll post under "NoPac" or perhaps "Carnival" (the pending invasion of Amchitka).

Circus was remarkably successful at low cost. The Allies didn't lose any significant ships during the actual invasions (though Steroid KB did catch the tail end of some amphib TFs, sinking a dozen or a score of xAK and xAP). Later, while defending Adak, trying to hold John's attention and KB in NoPac, a strong surface engagement took place at Adak, with the Allies losing an RN CA, an USN CLAA, and four or five DDs (all but one of them Fletchers). John might've lost a few DDs, and two of his CAs took single torp hits. During this interval, Circus did seem to hold Half KB North's attention, allowing Roller Coaster to proceed unmolested by enemy carriers. Last, but not least, the complicated process of repositioning and retrieving troops went unusually well.

Elsewhere: More than 42k enemy troops at Rangoon under strong CAP (200 fighters). There's a small chance John could be withdrawing troops. More likely that he's inserting them. I'm watching for an offensive in Assam and/or western China. I have six or eight units moving from Ramree to the mainland - a repositioning to avoid having units unnecessarily caught forward. Alfred made some helpful posts that got me to thinking along these lines, for which I'm thankful. I'd already had several combat units moving from Assam to reinforce Cox's Bazaar, which was the weakest link in the chain of coastal forts.

KB: No sign of it. John may be up to an offensive move somewhere. I'll keep watching. But my hunch is that KB is posted close enough to CenPac and NoPac to respond to Allied moves in those two theaters.

[Canoerebel]

Circus Area of Operations.

[Canoerebel]

Roller Coaster Area of Operations

[Canoerebel]

Bay of Bengal Area of Operations