The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[traskott]

Remember that one upon a time, a jap player tried to invade India at 1944...

[Canoerebel]

Not forgotten.

That's why I qualify nearly everything I say. I don't expect John to invade western India or eastern Oz, but I'm watching.

But he'll need KB (or Half KB) for certain things. And if Half KB shows up somewhere distant, Death Star become more mobile at less risk.

[Canoerebel]

7/21/43

Roller Coaster: It looks like more enemy ships approaching Abemama. I've configured for an air strike tomorrow if that's the case, with Allied fighters to sweep and escort. What I'm more interested in seeing is if John really wants Abemama that much. If so it says a great deal about his current state of mind and feeling that these waters are still his. IJN subs are now sniffing close to Johnston Island, where the heavily damaged APA is limping to Pearl. Keeping fingers crossed. All other merchants have now returned to Pearl. Fletchers and some merchants are moving from Pearl to the Marshalls as part of the re-supply/reposition effort.

NoPac: An IJN cruiser or two bombarded Adak, doing no damage. I'm holding the Fletchers at Umnak for a few days to allow the minelayers to catch up. A RCT will be pulled from garrison duty at one of the small island bases near Kodiak and shipped to Pearl. It's prepping for Kwajalein.

Australia: Some enemy probing with subs and recon - nothing new, but rather ongoing. An East African division arrives at Adelaide in three to four days and will become a mobile reserve in the short term. Long term, she'll help liberate New Caledonia when John retires his forward garrison.

[Canoerebel]

7/22/43

Circus: Ah, what the heck. I've grown too fond of "Circus" to abandon it now. I'll keep using the name until Carnival actually gets underway, which is likely at least 30 days away, maybe more.

A funny thing happened today in the Circus area of operations. A patrolling USN SC blundered across a naked enemy TF of multiple xAKs and a PB or two. (Or, maybe I should say the Japanese TF blundered across a patrolling SC.) This is a strange place (13 hexes SSW of Umnak) at a strange time for an enemy TF, especially given it's NE heading. Patrols report a TF possibly including a carrier (or multiple carriers) steaming east from Attu (I am skeptical of this report and won't believe it until further information develops). I can't imagine what John is up to. He's recently begun reconnaissance of Cold Bay. Maybe he thinks that base is weakly held and that the Allies aren't defending the Aleuts in strength. If so he's about to discover that there's a hornet's nest there. I just can't see him using KB or Half KB and a massive counter-invasion TF here and now. If he does this too sheds light on his current mindset that these are his waters. It is possible that a massive invasion could bedevil an Allied island or two (here or in the Marshalls), but the Allies are in great strength in both regions and I don't think either is threatened by Japanese offensive capabilities. If John did something like take Cold Bay (unlikely, but not impossible), I'd just ignore it, pound it with bombers, and proceed with Carnival. Cold Bay would be a prison camp.

I'm sure enough of the defense here that I'm proceeding with the removal of the US battalion at one small island and a US RCT from another (these are former dot hexes close to Kodiak; the offer little for John and I can make better uses of those troops). Cold Bay has 150 AV behind three forts. It's the weakest of my major garrisons, but still strong (and with plenty of LBA close by). I don't see any way John can invade Umnak, Adak, Dutch Harbor or Kodiak. Those bases are so strongly held that I doubt that they'd fall to three enemy divisions, at least within a time frame that would be acceptable for John.

I'm weighing weather to insert the Fletcher TF into Adak. Since there might (might) be an enemy carrier force right there, I'm leaning towards leaving the DDs under Umnak's massive fighter umbrella for a turn or two.

I love John's aggressive nature since it makes the game so exciting. Since I'm tied to ports for a month to upgrade ships, I'd like a chance to strike at an offensive-minded John. So let's see what's happening.

Roller Coaster: Bad weather shuts down Tarawa's airfield. There are enemy ships at Abemama, but I'm not sure what they're doing. Perhaps unloading, or perhaps serving to draw strikes into John's LRCAP. I'm willing to accept that arrangement since Abe is closer to Tarawa, which has lots of good fighters. Fletchers are inbound to the Marshalls with supply ships trailing. The badly damaged APA is 10 hexes from Pearl and making 8 knots. Go, boy, go! I have something like 25 APA and six AKA at Pearl, with more in NoPac. The Allied amphibious fleet is waxing strong, though they can evaporate quickly in a hostile environment.

[Canoerebel]

If John is engaging in a full-strength counter invasion in the Mid or Upper Aleutians, Circus is going to live up to its name.

[Canoerebel]

Making 8 knots, APA Sheridan is just 10 hexes from Pearl.

She was damaged in an air strike at Wotje near the end of the Roller Coaster amphibious operations. This was right in the midst of the Japanese sub reign of terror. I thought there was no way she'd make it home, but she's managed to make it this far.

[Canoerebel]

Ships at Pearl Harbor.

[Canoerebel]

The situation at Ulak Island, the westernmost Allied island.

[Canoerebel]

Adak Island's defenses are so strong that I just can't imagine John would choose to invade.

[Canoerebel]

Same with Umnak Island.

[Canoerebel]

Dutch Harbor's garrison is smaller, but the island has a lot of mines and AA guns.

[Canoerebel]

Cold Bay is no pushover.

[BBfanboy]

I am guessing that xAK TF is bait to draw out whatever combat ships you have so his carrier force can swoop in and smash something. John hasn't had a "Hulk Smash!" fix in some time and will divert from strategic (and patient) operations to try and make some excitement. Even John wouldn't send an actual loaded TF of xAKs into enemy territory without any escort at all.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Making 8 knots, APA Sheridan is just 10 hexes from Pearl.

She was damaged in an air strike at Wotje near the end of the Roller Coaster amphibious operations. This was right in the midst of the Japanese sub reign of terror. I thought there was no way she'd make it home, but she's managed to make it this far.

Can't you get her a better ASW escort now?

[Canoerebel]

Anchorage has 600 AV behind 4 forts. Kodiak has 150 AV behind 8 forts.

Akutan has a weak garrison (81 AV behind 2.73 forts), but is a level one airfield that doesn't offer John much unless he has other bases nearby. Similarly, Atka only has 94 AV behind 2.79 forts, but it doesn't have an airfield. It could be used for some mischief in connection with strongly held Amchitka and forward-deployed KB in an effort to isolate Adak.

Overall assessment: The Allies are strong in the Aleutians. With an all-out commitment, there is a small chance John could create problems in the Circus area of operations. In that event, Death Star would be called on.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Making 8 knots, APA Sheridan is just 10 hexes from Pearl.

She was damaged in an air strike at Wotje near the end of the Roller Coaster amphibious operations. This was right in the midst of the Japanese sub reign of terror. I thought there was no way she'd make it home, but she's managed to make it this far.

Can't you get her a better ASW escort now?

She's following an ASW TF into port, but you're right; I'll send additional ASW to merge with Sheridan's TF.

[Bearcat2]

Do you have any PT boats at your Aluetian bases?

[Canoerebel]

I have some at Kodiak.

Moonlight is high, so I'm not going to build any at the forward bases. My experience with PB boats in moonlight is that they do nothing except boost the enemy's morale.

[JohnDillworth]

Don't think John would try a counter invasion without the BB's (or at least the CA's) going in at least once. The big boys proably need a tune up after their recent heavy use. you know John better than anyone but this smells like bait

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Don't think John would try a counter invasion without the BB's (or at least the CA's) going in at least once. The big boys proably need a tune up after their recent heavy use. you know John better than anyone but this smells like bait

I think it is safe to presume John knows the Allied CVs are at Pearl. If CR makes a bee line for them with his CVs John could possibly slip the KB in behind the Allies with the KB such that any engagement would be outside of LBA support for either side. The wait for the new CVs and CVL is good for CR as it lessens the impulse to react with CVs.

Cleaning up the Japanese TF is a perfect job for the Fletchers in the Aleutians. It is a nice opportunity to gain some experience for the ship crews without much risk.