TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY

[warspite1]

The French can get a 5:1 +1 on the Italians i.e. the French cannot guarantee taking out Algiers. I'd rather try and bolster the French front with the extra move this free's up.

[Orm]

If that is the only three land moves you plan, then I would rather prefer moving the two units in the Maginot line and then do the attack on Algiers with the last land move.

[warspite1]

Well the moving of the 7-4 Infantry north of Warsaw was very clever as it stops the Polish Warsaw Militia from setting up. I would never have thought to move that unit....

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

If that is the only three land moves you plan, then I would rather prefer moving the two units in the Maginot line and then do the attack on Algiers with the last land move.

warspite1

I'm just not sure its worth it. There is a good chance of losing a 5-3 for a division (and not getting Algiers back anyway). The Italians are heading for the French border in force now the cavalry has opened the door.

[warspite1]

Given the French situation what about a 3:2 attack + 2 on Metz.....?

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

If that is the only three land moves you plan, then I would rather prefer moving the two units in the Maginot line and then do the attack on Algiers with the last land move.

warspite1

I'm just not sure its worth it. There is a good chance of losing a 5-3 for a division (and not getting Algiers back anyway). The Italians are heading for the French border in force now the cavalry has opened the door.

I would not call a 10% risk of losing the 5-3 a good chance. I would call it an acceptable risk. Without that attack Algeria will be conquered by Italy. If the attack succeeds I would say that the Italian plans for the first turn failed. Otherwise it is a success.

[Orm]

Given the French situation what about a 3:2 attack + 2 on Metz.....?

Is that with the 4 points of ground support that Germany has available?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Given the French situation what about a 3:2 attack + 2 on Metz.....?

Is that with the 4 points of ground support that Germany has available?

warspite1

Yes - that is with using up both fighters as bombers.

[Orm]

The Italians are heading for the French border in force now the cavalry has opened the door.

Good. They took the bait. [:)]

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

Given the French situation what about a 3:2 attack + 2 on Metz.....?

Is that with the 4 points of ground support that Germany has available?

warspite1

Yes - that is with using up both fighters as bombers.

[&o]

Then this is an interesting alternative. [:)]

[Orm]

Losing Algeria early makes the defence of Spain, Gibraltar and Morocco tough if they go for that alternative. But the attack on Metz is a very interesting alternative. Especially if it is a success. But it is a high risk attack with a high reward. The cost for failure could be high as well if it is a long turn.

[warspite1]

With an amendment. The French cavalry moves into the Maginot Line.

[Orm]

Unfortunately, there is a huge risk with the Metz attack even if it is a success. [:(] And that is that it is likely to be the Allies last impulse this turn. And Axis is likely to win next. Huge risk that Germany will break through in Flanders and the second line is removed with this option.

[warspite1]

The downside is that the units in the Maginot Line - which are dead meat anyway (if the Germans breakthrough SW of Metz) are sacrificed.

The French still hold Oran with a 5-3 and the Italians show no sign of reinforcing Algiers quickly (for which they will need to take on the RN in the Western Med) so the opportunity to attack remains. I am not happy about not making an attack in the Baltic - but with my luck at sea I probably would fail to find the convoys again anyway [:D]

Despite the German bad luck with the dice last turn, they remain in an excellent position (weather depending). If we could take back Metz then that would be helpful.

Of course we may throw a 1.....

EDIT: Yes Flanders is more exposed but then if we kept the second line then his line of advance would be through Alsace-Lorraine anyway.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

With an amendment. The French cavalry moves into the Maginot Line.

I would not reinforce the Maginot line.

Metz is no longer a fort hex. The French-Belgian border is to lightly defended. Moving the cavalry from the French Alps opens that route for the Italians if it is a long turn. And if the attack is a failure then the units in the Maginot line risk to be trapped.

[warspite1]

But if that is the case - I would prefer the 3-5 goes back to the border to make any Italian encroachment a highly risky proposition. Moving west just puts the XLIII Corps under threat no?

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The downside is that the units in the Maginot Line - which are dead meat anyway (if the Germans breakthrough SW of Metz) are sacrificed.

The French still hold Oran with a 5-3 and the Italians show no sign of reinforcing Algiers quickly (for which they will need to take on the RN in the Western Med) so the opportunity to attack remains. I am not happy about not making an attack in the Baltic - but with my luck at sea I probably would fail to find the convoys again anyway [:D]

Despite the German bad luck with the dice last turn, they remain in an excellent position (weather depending). If we could take back Metz then that would be helpful.

Of course we may throw a 1.....

EDIT: Yes Flanders is more exposed but then if we kept the second line then his line of advance would be through Alsace-Lorraine anyway.

If Germany selects assault then it is only 30% chance to capture Metz. To low for me to count with it. Although it is a decent opportunity to destroy one German MOT (albeit a bad one). I would consider destroying the German convoy points almost as good.

Italy can, as soon as Algeria is conquered rail units from Tunisia to reinforce Algeria. And the French resource in Algeria will be lost.

The straight defensive line from the Coast to the Alps is not all that bad if the weather is bad. I suggest that this is the best we can do and try to make Germany fight for every additional hex they want to take.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

But if that is the case - I would prefer the 3-5 goes back to the border to make any Italian encroachment a highly risky proposition. Moving west just puts the XLIII Corps under threat no?

Yes. But it has 6 in defence and if Italy wants to attack that from one hex then I would like to encourage him to do so.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

But if that is the case - I would prefer the 3-5 goes back to the border to make any Italian encroachment a highly risky proposition. Moving west just puts the XLIII Corps under threat no?

Yes. But it has 6 in defence and if Italy wants to attack that from one hex then I would like to encourage him to do so.

warspite1

Why one hex? Can the Alpini not attack also?

[Orm]

I must confess that in this discussion I look out more for CW than for France. I am sorry to say that I consider mainland France lost. It is only a matter of time and I would be happy if France held until summer. But France is lost. But the colonies might not be lost. And France could fight on from their colonies. So giving another one up without a fight annoys me.

Sincerely,

Orm

Minister of Defence