The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[JohnDillworth]

BTW, how are your subs doing in the rest of the world? Any luck impeding the oil/supply flow back to the home islands?

[Canoerebel]

Right now subs are concentrating in three regions: (1) between the Aleutians and the Home Islands, (2) between the Marshalls and Truk, and (3) between the Straits of Malacca and Rangoon. This is a major shift that took place a few months back. Before, the subs were concentrated around Sabang and in the choke points between the DEI and the Home Islands. I had pretty good success with the latter. But with all the action concentrated in the Marshalls and the Aleutians, it made sense to make a change. KB will be active in one or both places. If it incurs damage, there are only limited sea lanes to ports of refuge - Truk in the south and Tokyo, Sendai, etc. in the north. This enchances the likelihood of major intercepts. Allied subs have already had good success in NoPac and some success in CenPac.

The Rangoon sea lanes were in expectation that John might move an army there. I've seen nothing of the sort. But I am keeping a sub presence in the IO since I have relatively few capital ships present. So the options are fairly limited - Rangoon lanes and Sunda Strait, mainly.

Once things slow down a bit, I'll redistribute subs. But I like the idea of concentrating on known lanes likely to see heavy use and possibly to see damaged ships.

[Canoerebel]

KB in the Marshalls.

[Canoerebel]

Allied sub deployment in NoPac.

[Canoerebel]

Operation Thin Man under way.

[Canoerebel]

8/15/43

Roller Coaster: No enemy carriers or combat ships sighted today.

The Allied TFs are making good progress on the journey west. No encounters with subs; no reports of detection levels. Orders have been given for the faster TFs to go on ahead, leaving some of the slower supply TFs to come in on their own.

An Allied DD TF did some scouting of an IJ dot hex south of Kwaj to see if there were mines. None reported. Tomorrow it will scout Kwaj itself and then retire to Wotje, under a reinforced CAP.

Circus: Enemy transport TF arrives at Buldir. Does it stay there or depart for Ulak? The latter is now at 3.92 forts. Three more days and forts progress to 4.

[ny59giants]

B-24s - Where are they and what are you doing with the beast?? I'm getting over 50 of the D1 models per month so you should be in good shape too.

[Canoerebel]

Simple question, complicated answer. I could simply say, "I have plans for them," but what fun would that be? Here's a way more detailed answer than you probably want:

1. 4EB were used in the Aleutians early to hit Amchitka's airfield hard. But to use them effectively, they need escorts or sweeps from fighters based at Adak, and to reliably base fighters at Adak, I need ships to prevent nuclear bombardments. So temporarily the 4EB have stood down.

2. 4EB have seen minimal use in the Marshalls and Gilberts due to airfields size and supply levels. With Tarawa airfield going to level 4 (joining Maloelap, which is low on supply), the Allies are about ready to resume operations. 4EB will be used to (hopefully) suppress enemy aircraft activity at Kwaj and Roi Namur during the upcoming Operation Thin Man.

3. 4EB have seen limited use in Oz, mainly in the campaign to take Tennent Creek. I don't foresee additional use for awhile.

4. 4EB saw heavy use in India for a time, but I've stood them down and will keep them stood down for a long time. There is a reason and a plan. I won't go into detail other than to say I want to accumulate as many as possible before making use of them.

I've found that 4EB are pretty vulnerable to enemy fighters, so that sweeps and escorts are necessary when the target has fighters.

[Panther Bait]

I like your handling of the 4EB. Reading AARs, I find that many players seemingly can't stand to have their bombers stand down for more than a day or two. So, they'll find some place that they can just bomb day-after-day, but then they are not ready or are out of place, when they are really needed.

Mike

[poodlebrain]

In short, you are using them to try and land a quick knockout punch in support of other operations when and where opportunities present themselves. You might want to consider using them in the recon role occasionally to keep John on his toes. He will surely think the recon is in preparation of strikes and adjust his air defense accordingly. High altitude recon may be of limited value for intelligence gathering, but it can be quite valuable for feeding your opponent information you want him to have.

[Canoerebel]

I am using them for recon and NavSearch, especially in the Marshalls and Gilberts. I'll address that in the next post.

[Canoerebel]

8/16/43

Roller Coaster/Thin Man: No signs of enemy carriers or combat ships. Many of the Allied TFs passed close to an IJN sub south of Johnston, but no TFs report detection. There were no actual encounters with the sub. As far as I know, John is not aware that an Allied armada is approaching the Marshalls. This operation is not predicated on surprise but it could benefit from it.

The main Allied armada of TFs is 30 hexes east of Kwaj. Other TFs (some slower, some faster) are spread out. John should soon get some NavSearch reports on some of these.

The Allied DD force successfully entered the Kwaj hex without incident - no subs, no mines, no ships. I don't think John is aware of this mission. The DDs retired to Wotje, drew a small Betty strike from way down at Tabituea, and the CAP downed them. Tomorrow the DDs will recon Roi-Namur.

Kwaj has a CD unit that I think is somewhat smaller than Wotje's. Roi-Namur doesn't start with a CD unit. (By the way, SigInt reports that John has rebuilt Wotje's CD unit at Tokyo.)

The Allies have a number of PBY recon units, one regular B24 squadron, and one B25 squadron in the Marshalls and Gilberts. These units are regularly scoring hits on enemy shipping. It's common enough that John is probably irritated a bit. It remainds me of our game around 2007, when allied 4EB on NavSearch simply devastated the Japanese up at Hokkaido and then down around Trivandrum. I thought that feature had since been nerfed, but not by what I've seen lately.

I am "assuming" that John will throw everything at the Allies, but I'm actually not sure he will. The Allies have so many bases and so much LBA that I wonder if he'll be willing to chance KB under these conditions. I'm okay with either, though I'd slightly prefer that he not contest, as the Pucker Factor is huge for a major carrier engagement. Here we've played this game for four years, investing countless hours, and now we finally face the prospect of a decisive carrier battle. Pucker. Factor. Nerve. Wracking.

Circus: No imminent move on Ulak Island, where forts a 3.95 (two more days). Fletchers are based at Umnak. I'm toying with whether to send them tonight to Adak. I probably will.

ASW: I seldom comment on individual combats in the sub wars, but Allied ASW has been very tough in the Aluetians, at Pearl, and in the Marshalls of late. NavSearch patrols are scoring hits as are ASW squadrons and ships with ASW capability. It's very hard to judge outright "kills" in the ASW war, but I believe the Ships Lost screen currently lists about eight IJN subs sunk since July 1. That's inflated considerably, but it is an indication of the level of damage.

Elsewhere: I haven't detected any signs that John is moving in Burma or China, but I keep checking. The Allies are selectively building some airfields in China, India and Assam, to be in position to strike at industry when the Strat Bombing house rule expires at the end of the year.

[BBfanboy]

Appears to me that when you withdrew to PH after the initial Roller Coaster landings, John assumed you were going to head north again to fake him out. His fruitless foray between the Marshalls and Johnston Island would have reinforced the idea that everything was going north. Even your probing DD TF in the Marshalls could be interpreted as a decoy.

I think he took everything north to support his invasion and hope that you try to attack it so he can pounce.

[Canoerebel]

I agree that his thoughts may be running along those lines. But I also think he'd send KB to Truk to replenish before moving them out of theater (unless he's really misread everything badly and is frantic, which I doubt). So its probably he'll catch on to what's developing before it's too late to react.

But I'd be awfully glad if your interpretation was right.

Another possibility is that he thinks but isn't sure that's what I'm doing. But he might then figure that moving his carriers to NoPac would be a no-lose proposition as they could then support any counteroffensive ops he has planned there.

[Canoerebel]

A few decisions made and corresponding orders entered.

Arleigh Burke will lead the Fletchers from Umnak to Adak. I think an enemy bombardment TF is inboud (if not that it might be an invasion force bound for Ulak). I want to protect the airfield at Adak, though the Fletchers might not make it in time since it's nine hexes.

In addition to fighters and bombers at Adak, I've stationed some of the same at Ulak. Also, nearly 100 B25s at Umnak are set to Naval Strike.

None of this may work. In fact, the most likely outcome is that a nuclear bombardment does moderate to heavy damage to Adak's airfield. But I'm giving John a new look, there is potential for an effective strike given proxmity (and resulting friction), and (this entered into the thinking after I read and thought about BBFanboy's post) I want to give the appearance of an aggressive posture in the Aleutians on the chance that John is reacting by sending KB this way.

To that point, I've created several mock amphibious TFs at Kodiak. They'll move forward tonight. And a TF of three CVEs is gathering just west of Seattle to move towards the Aleuts. This is too late in developing to offer any real hope of success, but it's wortha shot and they were heading that way fairly soon anyhow.

[JohnDillworth]

Right now subs are concentrating in three regions: (1) between the Aleutians and the Home Islands, (2) between the Marshalls and Truk, and (3) between the Straits of Malacca and Rangoon. This is a major shift that took place a few months back. Before, the subs were concentrated around Sabang and in the choke points between the DEI and the Home Islands. I had pretty good success with the latter. But with all the action concentrated in the Marshalls and the Aleutians, it made sense to make a change. KB will be active in one or both places. If it incurs damage, there are only limited sea lanes to ports of refuge - Truk in the south and Tokyo, Sendai, etc. in the north. This enchances the likelihood of major intercepts. Allied subs have already had good success in NoPac and some success in CenPac.

forgive me for being thick. So all of your subs are being used to track and kill warships? Do you inerdict shipping and supply lanes? AK's and Tankers and such?

[Canoerebel]

I'm not positive I understand your question. So if my answer isn't responsive, that's why.

Through early '43, Allied subs were being used in two places: (1) Sabang area and Sunda Straits in an effort to interdict enemy shipping, especially combat ships; and (2) the choke points between the DEI and the Home Islands, primarily focused on merchant shipping.

That has changed since around May '43. When the Allies shifted ops to the Aleutians, I knew KB and combat ships were headed that way. The sea lanes between the Aleutians and the Home Islands are narrow, deep water, so I diverted a fair number of Pacific subs to those lanes. Then, when the action shifted to the Marshalls, I likewise knew that a lot of Japanese traffic (both combat vessels and merchants) would be playing the waters between there and Truk. So, as subs returned to Pearl to replenish, I tasked a large percentage to these waters.

This redeployment is probably temporary. At some point, the sea lanes won't be so obvious or circumstances will change sufficiently to persuade me that resuming the DEI/Home Islands campaign seems more promising than what I'm doing now. But right now I think the present deployment is the best.

I am not a "sub chaser." I don't enjoy the micromanagement of sending dozens of subs after each sighting of KB or another target. I'll do it when necessary or when the opportunity is so striking that even I can't ignore it (I did it when KB was near Sabang for weeks). But mainly I prefer to identify important sea lanes, patrol them, and then let time do its work.

[BBfanboy]

To add to your explanation, you also mentioned that the Achilles heel at Sabang was that the IJN was able to bombard and close the airfield so you could not send in supply or reinforcements. After that campaign was unsalvageable you resolved to try and hit the IJN harder so you had some freedom of action when you moved again. Still makes perfect sense to me to use your subs in that role for a time.

[Canoerebel]

Allied subs have been fairly effective, I think. In recent months, they've claimed at least two fleet AOs, put a fish into CVL Zuiho, and torpedoed one or two BBs during the Sabang operations. They also missed shots at Soryu (many months back) and Ryujo (about eight days back). That's just a small sampling.

But, to BBFanboy's point, when we resumed the game I gave highest priority on attritioning the Kaigun. I think that's John's Achilles heel. I think if he loses just a few more BBS, CAs, and DDs, he's really going to begin feeling the effects. A big carrier clash is almost certain to result in mutual losses, so that's one way. But a big clash will also result in cripples that have to make for Truk or the Home Islands.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Allied subs have been fairly effective, I think. In recent months, they've claimed at least two fleet AOs, put a fish into CVL Zuiho, and torpedoed one or two BBs during the Sabang operations. They also missed shots at Soryu (many months back) and Ryujo (about eight days back). That's just a small sampling.

But, to BBFanboy's point, when we resumed the game I gave highest priority on attritioning the Kaigun. I think that's John's Achilles heel. I think if he loses just a few more BBS, CAs, and DDs, he's really going to begin feeling the effects. A big carrier clash is almost certain to result in mutual losses, so that's one way. But a big clash will also result in cripples that have to make for Truk or the Home Islands.

Don't forget that the subs have provided really solid intelligence, too! Hard to put a price on that.