The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Yes. Two recent examples: the sinking of an IJN AO north of Truk was the first clue that KB was moving north in response to the invasions in the Aleutians, and a sub missing Ryujo 8 or 10 turns back was the first indication that KB was moving towards the Marshalls or Hawaii. Both events were significant.

[Canoerebel]

8/17/43

A quiet day. A quiet day with lots of information. And a quiet day in the way it can be still before the storm.

Roller Coaster/Thin Man: No sign of KB, though recon shows a bunch of CAs (probably exaggerations) disbanded at Truk. Also, SigInt reports heavy radio traffic at Marcus Island. That would be a good central point if John was trying to weigh between CenPac and NoPac. But Ops Report shows Marcus port going to level 2, so the signal may be merchant traffic involved in beafing up the island's defenses. I am playing on the assumption that KB is in a position to move quickly to the Marshalls, but I am also considering the possibility it's at Marcus or en route to NoPac.

Four Fletchers visit Roi Namur without incident (they're going to return tonight, because NavSearch now shows enemy merchants there). This is a crucial bit of information. The DDs have visited both invaison targets without incident. This suggests that John isn't uber-prepared with the bases mined to the teeth. He might be planning last minute mine runs by subs or CMs, but that's a different level of prep.

The main Allied invasion TFs are 23 hexes east of Kwaj. No encounters with the enemy and none showing detection. Surely there will be sniffings tomorrow or the day after. In fact, I have the one xAK supply TF purposefully taking an advance, southern course (in range of Taby's search planes and Bettys) just to draw John's attention. If there is early detection, the plan is to steam into the Marshalls boldy, then suddenly stop and attend to supply matters first. If John doesn't get early detection, or if I get reliable info that KB is far away, then amphibious operations will come first.

I have about 270 good LBA fighters in the Marshalls and Gilberts, along with five torpedo squadrons (2 TBF, 3 Beufort) and four or five SBD squadrons.

Circus: No altercation at Adak, but combat ships are in close proximity. John has a big combat TF at Amchitka under stout CAP. I have 5 Fletchers (to be augumented tonight by a sixth) at Adak. I bet John send his ships to Adak. I'm leaving my Fletchers in place because Adak has mines and because any damage suffered by enemy ships (to mines or in surface combat) might allow the concentrateion of strike aircraft at Ulak and Adak to get in a whack or two.

[poodlebrain]

Also, SigInt reports heavy radio traffic at Marcus Island. That would be a good central point if John was trying to weigh between CenPac and NoPac. But Ops Report shows Marcus port going to level 2, so the signal may be merchant traffic involved in beafing up the island's defenses. I am playing on the assumption that KB is in a position to move quickly to the Marshalls, but I am also considering the possibility it's at Marcus or en route to NoPac.

This is consistent with your sinking of the AO north of Truk, and your recent spotting of the KB operating NE of the Marshalls. John could have the KB sitting at Marcus with AO waiting to determine where to commit it based on your actions. I think this may give you some low risk sailing time for your TFs to approach the Marshalls. Additionally, it gives you time to arrange your LBA to try and get a favorable environment for the carrier battle you seek.

I view this as a positive development with respect to Thin Man.

[Lecivius]

I tend to agree. But he's got a lot of horsepower floating around here. KB is here in one group, and so are all of those CVE's of his in another [&:] Be careful your not the ham in a sandwich. Do you have air search working OT?

I have that feeling of an impending storm. The air changed. It won't happen today, or tomorrow, but soon. You can taste the change in the air.

[crsutton]

A follow up on mixing BBs. Actually were it me I would avoid surface combat with my BBs especially the old ones. By now they should have pretty good AA and they are perfect escort for your CVEs. The AI loves to attack BBs and one in your CVE TF might absorb 25% of the bomb hits that would normally be directed to the very fragile CVEs. The fast BBs go as well with your fleet carriers. Even Japanese 500 kg bombs bounce off and the AA is deadly. Surface fights should be avoided until you have fully functioning torpedoes and upgraded gunnery accuracy which will come in a couple of months. At this point Japanese surface assets just have too much advantage. No sense losing valuable ships now when the tide turns favorably for you in a short time.

[crsutton]

This one is for Dan. We blundered upon this historic Rosenwald School while driving the back roads of NC on the way to our Hatteras home. This is the Coinjock Colored School and it is on its way to a full restoration. Pretty nice.

[Canoerebel]

Ross, thanks for the photo. That's a particularly handsome example of one of the old Rosenwald Schools. Many readers may know that these were black schools financed privately through philanthropy, I think in the '20s or '30s. There are several surviving examples in my section of Georgia. We've touched on this history in some of our articles, but it merits an article of its own.

[Canoerebel]

8/18/43

Operation Thin Man: It's time to make the transition from Roller Coaster to Thin Man. This operation focuses on supply to the Marshalls, retrieving (and some redistribution) of troops, action against enemy carriers and/or combat ships, and the invasions of Kwajalein and Roi-Namur.

John's patrols caught wind of many TFs, but not the carriers. Yet some of his search aircraft were downed by CAP. So he'll make accurate deductions. The main armada is 16 hexes east of Kwaj. Some TFs are further forward, including that "bait" TF of three xAKs. It drew a strike from Taby's Bettys. One of the xAKs was hit and sunk.

The four Fletchers at Wotje sortied to Roi-Naur, encountering a small merchant TF without meaningful escort (again, no mines, which is good info). The Fletchers sank three xAK and an SC. NavSearch reports an enemy combat TF (two CLs showing) inbound about six hexes west of Roi. My Fletchers are low on ammo, so they will retire to Jaluit, where I think they can replenish gun ammo but not torps (that should change in about three days, when support ships arrive).

No sign of KB. John's email indicates that he's looking for a fight. So I expect Steroid KB to come fast, probably combined with Mini KB. Somebody asked if the Allies have good NavSearch. There are six PBY squadrons stationed in the Marshalls, with others at Midway and Tarawa. Ther are also long-range recon and bomber units supplementing the search.

I've moved all torp and divebombers forward, mostly to Ailinglaplap, Maloelap and Wotje. The latter is five hexes from Jaluit's air HQ, but that's just within range of torp capability. The Beauforts here are set to range 8, which is enough to hit a naked AV operating at a dot hex to the north (I hope). Fighters are going to sweep Kwaj, with 4EB from Tarawa assigned to hit the airfield.

Two PT boat squadrons were created at Wotje and drew fuel from the Fletchrs. One TF will go over to Kwaj tonight (checking on mines and tasked with interdicting any minelayers). The second TF will patrol at Wotje, where that CL TF may be coming.

Tarawa goes to level four forts.

Circus: No action at Adak - that big enemy TF was carrying troops or supplies to Amchitka and then retired. Ulak goes to level four forts.

Reinforcements: Alabama arrived and will immediately depart, accompanied by a Fletcher, bound for Pearl. CV Belleau Wood will arrive in a few weeks. Where it goes from there depends on what's going on - but if things go well, she'll be heading for NoPac to take part in the upcoming invasion of Amchitka. Three relatively new CVEs are already present in NoPac. I think another CVL arrives at San Fran within the month.

[Canoerebel]

Operation Thin Man underway.

[SierraJuliet]

CR I look at your map and see so much green on the way. A truly awesome and terrible looking sight for those of us who like to wear red.

[Canoerebel]

8/19/43

I hope it lives up to its appearance, Sierra.

Thin Man: The Allied TFs move closer to the Marshalls without incident. No sign of enemy carriers. (Every AE player can probably imagine how nerve-wracking this is.) No big enemy air raids. No signs of massed subs or mines.

Some of the TFs are beginning to reach their objectives. Minelayers are at Mili. A fast transport TF may deliver it's load to the dot hex north of Wotje tonight. Three combat TFs will take station at Wotje, Maloelap and Mili tonight (the latter begin the four Fletchers already here; they replenished everything but torps at Jaluit today).

The carriers (with most of the amphib and support TFs) will move to a point SW of Maloelap tonight, seeking the most favorable position - a series of friendly airfields between it and the enemy airfields and the likely direction from which KB will arrive.

This is a relatively slow unfolding plan. Supply should begin unloading in a couple of days. That's the first priority. The second is to get some empty amphibs to Jaluit to load part of the Roi/Kwaj invasion forces. If all that goes well, then (eventually) the Allies move on the enemy islands. But the overarching issue is the location of the KB - does it come or not. If it does, it should arrive before any amphibious operations can take place. So preparation to meet the enemy is really the highest priority.

PT boats don't encounter anything at Kwaj. An enemy CL/DD force is at Roi. It drew some escorted and unescorted torpedo plane strikes. Oddly, though, the 4EB from way down at Tarawa opened the show early in the a.m., before the sweeps from the bases close to Kwaj came in. The result of all this was the Allies lost about 27 aircraft. Ten (10!) of these were 4EB. That's not a good ratio, so the 4EB are all converted to NavSearch.

To this point, John hasn't loaded up the airfields at Kusaie, Kwaj or Roi. Hmmm, that's gotta change big time if KB is coming.

Wow: Pucker. Factor. Big. Time. I will sweat when I send this turn back.

SigInt that an infantry regiment is aboard a maru bound for Tabituea. This suits me, as Taby and islands to the south and west will be bypassed and cut off if the Allied advance to the west is timely. That's sort of an island-hopping campaign, but more like "region-ignoring."

Wotje port goes to level 2.

Circus: All quiet in the north. Allied high-quality amphibs are gathering at Prince Rupert, along with the CVEs.

[Canoerebel]

I should also report that the four Fletchers in the Marshalls sank another IJN sub today. Allied ASW has been markedly improved the past two months.

[Canoerebel]

Decisions made. Orders entered. Disaster may ensue, but I'm at ease. I think the decisions are the right ones.

[BBfanboy]

Speaking of subs, you can also expect a host of mini-subs at Kwaj and Roi-Namur. They usually don't hit much but it only takes one success to make you grind your teeth ...

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, an SSX at Tarawa put a torp into Indianapolis during that invasion.

[Canoerebel]

8/20/43

Thin Man: A fabulously complicated situation has developed during the final quiet day before what promises to be a storm.

Allied NavSearch picks up Steroid KB south of Wake Island (map to follow in next post). So it was posted at or near Marcus. Meanwhile, Mini KB is SW of Tabituea. Thirty-three hexes separate the two carrier groups, so they cannot unit tomorrow (unless John orders flank speed, which is possible but unlikely). The question is whether John is convinced enough that Kwaj/Roi are about to be invaded that he throws caution to the wind and orders all his ships to converge there, or whether he is more cautious and orders Mini KB to steer NW to skirt the danger zone. I think it will be something like the latter.

The Allied carriers are between Mili and Majuro (that's the best possible location given Steroid KB's position) 19 hexes from Steroid KB and 15 from Mini KB. It's tempting to go after Mini KB, but I don't think John will chance steaming straight north. And if I go off on that chase it leaves my merchant TFs pretty exposed, especially to enemy combat TFs. I think I'm going to steam SW a bit, to a point WNW of Makin Island. If, then, Mini KB steams hard for the Marshalls, a clash will occur. There is no danger, in that position, that Steroid KB could join in the fray.

Looks like lots of enemy subs at Kwaj/Roi. An IJN 5-DD TF visited Kwaj and sank a handful of PT boats.

Allied fast transports landed troops and base force cadre at Taongi, the dot hex eight hexes north of Wotje. From this position, PBYs can better monitor the northern flank.

Most Allied merchants and some CL/DD TFs will make for Mili. That's going to be The Alamo in the coming storm. There's a tremendous amount of shipping in proximity to enemy firepower, but that may be helpful in confusing John's target selection.

I don't know how fired up John is. I don't think a prudent player would steam into a circular arrangement of multiple Allied airfields with a large concentration of fighters and bombers plus a carrier force as large as his or larger. But there's a chance that he's in the mood to gamble, knowing the odds may never be better.

The Allies will accept battle, though I won't give it right on the front porch of John's big airfields. He'll have to seek me closer to my front porch.

Circus: No detected enemy activity.

[Canoerebel]

Operation Thin Man and Mini KB

[Canoerebel]

Thin Man and Steroid KB.

[Canoerebel]

One small change. The FT TF will change from Namorik to Ebon. Ebon is a Japanese dot hex. Namorik is Allied. Every little bit of pressure can mean something, so taking an enemy base - even a dot hex - will register far more with John than placing a cadre of troops at a base I already own.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One small change. The FT TF will change from Namorik to Ebon. Ebon is a Japanese dot hex. Namorik is Allied. Every little bit of pressure can mean something, so taking an enemy base - even a dot hex - will register far more with John than placing a cadre of troops at a base I already own.

Ebon is one more hex than Namorik from Kusaie Island (9 vs. 8) which will make it a little harder for him to LRCAP or escort strikes there. Looks like Kusaie is a staging point for his SCTFs - might be an AKE there.

Many thanks for the excellent map shots - really puts us in the picture with your descriptions. Your skills as a magazine layout planner and editor are evident! [&o]