The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I set aside the turn and went on a six-mile hike to clear my mind and relax. Thought of several small things that will help me organize better for the coming invasion. But the big thing is that I took another look at the map and found Steroid KB right there in plain sight - at Rabaul. Odd John would choose that port since it's more or less always under recon.

Once again, that puts the Marshalls between Mini KB and Steroid KB. That's nice.

It also means I'm going to begin shifting assets north from Mili to Maloelap in preparation for hitting Kwaj as soon as possible - either two days out or three.

[obvert]

Getting a CV tagged by your sub may have created some doubt that this was the right time for battle. Rabaul is a few day's sail. You have some easy time here to definitely pick off one or two more.

Why does he show the KB if he's not going to use it? It's like Checkov's famous quote about writing:

If you say in the first chapter that there is a rifle hanging on a wall, in the second or third chapter it absolutely must go off. If it’s not going to be fired, it shouldn’t be hanging there.

[Canoerebel]

John also has unusually poor detection on my bases and most of my TFs, including the combat ships and carriers. He knows about where everything is, but I don't thing he can have a good feel for what's going on.

From his perspective, the Allied TFs have just kind of been "sitting" at Allied bases. He might have concluded that I've been attending to supply and support so that the airfields are now pretty darned strong. I hope that's what he's concluded. I'd like him to have some trepidation about sending KB against the invasion TFs.

[Canoerebel]

Steroid KB at Rabaul, 34 hexes from Death Star near Maloelap, and 31 hexes from Kwaj. So we're not talking vast distances here. But John has no detection on shipping at Maleolap, where the Kwaj invasion TFs will gather. Next turn, the invasion TFs will move from Mili to Maloelap, while some supply TFs move from Maleolap to Mili. I hope in the shuffle John won't get the idea that something imminent is up. If KB remains down at Rabaul, then D-Day Kwaj could be day after tomorrow.

I'm doing Kwaj and Roi sequentially so that BBs can concentrate on one target. Both bases are strongly held (overstacked a bit). Bombardments will be key in overcoming the defenses.

A DD TF will try to quietly enter Kwaj hex tonight and retire to Maloelap, checking for mines.

[dave sindel]

Canoerebel,

Your affinity for hiking is an oft-repeated theme in your AAR. I am curious if you've seen the movie "A Walk In The Woods" with Robert Redford and Nick Nolte ? A very enjoyable movie.

[Canoerebel]

Bill Byrson is an incredibly funny and gifted (and vulgar) writer. The book A Walk in the Woods is a classic, though some purist Appalachian Trail backpackers dislike it. I think they believe the book was irreverent, that it didn't really represent what backpacking is about (since Bryson and Kats backpacked only about 30% or 40% of the trail) and that it was obviously commercial. I understand their thinking, but my thinking was, "Hey, they went a long way."

I did not particularly like the movie. I think I could've picked better vignettes from the book to turn into a movie, and there were a lot of inaccuracies that left me flat. However, my youngest son, who is also an AT backpacker, liked it a lot.

I hike a lot and write about it a fair bit for the magazine. Part of my love of hiking is that my undergraduate degree was in forestry. I'm at home in the woods. I do roughly 80% of my hiking solo, including in the wilderness areas. I really enjoy the solitude.

Introvert, don't you know.

[Capt. Harlock]

Sorry for the OT. my history is a little hazy, but wasn't Oregon a Union state in the civil war? didn't a Oregon US senator get himself killed in the fighting?

Correct. Senator Edward D. Baker became the Colonel of a Union regiment (without resigning his Senate seat), and was killed during the Battle of Ball's Bluff in October of 1861.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Steroid KB at Rabaul, 34 hexes from Death Star near Maloelap, and 31 hexes from Kwaj. So we're not talking vast distances here. But John has no detection on shipping at Maleolap, where the Kwaj invasion TFs will gather. Next turn, the invasion TFs will move from Mili to Maloelap, while some supply TFs move from Maleolap to Mili. I hope in the shuffle John won't get the idea that something imminent is up. If KB remains down at Rabaul, then D-Day Kwaj could be day after tomorrow.

I'm doing Kwaj and Roi sequentially so that BBs can concentrate on one target. Both bases are strongly held (overstacked a bit). Bombardments will be key in overcoming the defenses.

A DD TF will try to quietly enter Kwaj hex tonight and retire to Maloelap, checking for mines.

Dont forget that JIII may have plans that do not involve responding to your moves. He maybe comfortable in losing the Marshalls etc as the next move is to islands that he can stack defenders onto.

If KB is at Rabaul, what other moves could he be considering??

Given 4-5 Inf Divs available after Sabang could he have plans for a move south?? He will have seen that Australian Divisions are in the Central Pacific and think he can pick up Northern Queensland???

He may be staging at Rabaul for a move further west and a campaign in West Aust or Burma/India/Ceylon??

Always look from the other side of the hill.

[Canoerebel]

8/30/43

Thin Man: Steroid KB remains posted at Rabaul. Mini KB is no longer on the screen. Neither are the Kongos. Oddly, Death Star plus combat TFs and most Allied bases show no detection. That's several days in a row that John has had sketchy info - I think. Anyhow, with Steroid KB that distant, the amphibious TFs will weigh anchor from Maloelap and steam two hexes west towards Ailinglaplap. The carriers and major combat TFs will move to a point one hex west of Maloelap (and one hex east of the amphibis). If all goes well, D-Day Kwaj is day after tomorrow.

Recon shows about 9k troops (7 units) at Kwaj. Repeated DD forays show no mines. I have DMS along. There will be shore guns and there will be a slow BB embedded with the amphibs. I think this will be a tough nut to crack. My troops are not well prepped. But I want to get them ashore, see what's there, and bombard the hex for two days. Then we'll see what's what.

Quiet otherwise in the Marshalls today with good supply unloading, especially at Maloelap, which now has 27k. Lots more supply TFs inbound from the east (the ones that had to pull back when Mini KB made her run).

Circus: Supply LST's reached Adak. Let's see if it draws combat ships. SigInt that an IJA division is prepping for Adak. With 650 AV, I don't see that happening unless supply becomes an issue.

Elsewhere: Subs claimed a PB near Sabang and put two fish into an AP carrying something motorized near Sunda Strait (it didn't sink). Also sounds of a mine hit - nothing showing in the combat report, so almost certainly an IJN sub hitting a mine at Mili or Maloelap.

Regarding JeffK cautionary post, I've detailed at length a few pages back Allied efforts to address defense in Oz, India and China. John can punch a "Battle of the Bulge" bulge somewhere if he achieves local superiority, which is certainly a possibility. But I'd welcome the effort if it involves KB (and Oz or India pretty much have to). The Allies have the initiative. Death Star will be covering important amphibious ops over the coming months, so I won't go off chasing Steroid KB unless a crisis greater than the opportunities presented arises. I don't think that's likely.

[BBfanboy]

The lack of D/L on your TFs made me think that maybe he has re-tasked his Mavis/Emily seaplanes to picking up troops rather than naval search.
He definitely is not being aggressive with anything except his subs right now.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

Sorry for the OT. my history is a little hazy, but wasn't Oregon a Union state in the civil war? didn't a Oregon US senator get himself killed in the fighting?

Correct. Senator Edward D. Baker became the Colonel of a Union regiment (without resigning his Senate seat), and was killed during the Battle of Ball's Bluff in October of 1861.

Totally OT (but I know your love of history Dan so I hope you find this as interesting as I did):

Thank you all for bringing up this fascinating man!

Just read through the quick history on Wikipedia, and of course he is a Yankee. [;)] He's just the kind Canoerebel was talking about first. Ed T. Baker was born in London, moved to Indiana with his family aged five. Later though he also evolved into another kind of Yankee.

During his early political career he defeated a young lawyer and politician in Illinois, one Abe Lincoln. They became friends and Lincoln eventually named one of his children after Baker.

He then had an incredibly diverse life, fighting in the Mexican-American war, going to California to run a law practice there, getting into several controversial cases. Only after losing his run for the US House was he invited to Oregon in 1859 to take advantage of the new state status. He won a Senate seat and eventually was embroiled in the heated discussions on slavery and secession, and rode in the presidential carriage during the inauguration ceremonies with his old buddy Lincoln, introducing him to an audience that day in the Capitol.

A fascinating man, and like so many Americans, not from anywhere really. What a movie his life would make though, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Dickinson_Baker

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The lack of D/L on your TFs made me think that maybe he has re-tasked his Mavis/Emily seaplanes to picking up troops rather than naval search.
He definitely is not being aggressive with anything except his subs right now.

Flying a lot of search over the Deathstar usually results in a lot of dead pilots and destroyed planes.

However that doesn't mean you don't fine tune your search search other area.

[Canoerebel]

Both of us have been losing a lot of search aircraft due to big airfields and big carrier TFs. It has occurred to me that perhaps John shut down Nav Search for that reason, but it doesn't make sense. I'm under the impression that the Japanese never run short of aircraft no matter what happens. Or is Nav Search different? Is that more limited that the seemingly unlimited number of fighters and strike aircraft?

I've lost a lot of PBYs too, but it's worth it to have full search going on during what may turn out to be a decisive engagement. I need Nav Search now more than I probably will in late '44 or '45, though by then I probably have more than enough anyhow.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the info about Edward Dickson Baker. I honestly knew nothing about the guy. It does sound like a remarkable story. I wonder if any decent biographies have been written?

[IJV]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Both of us have been losing a lot of search aircraft due to big airfields and big carrier TFs. It has occurred to me that perhaps John shut down Nav Search for that reason, but it doesn't make sense. I'm under the impression that the Japanese never run short of aircraft no matter what happens. Or is Nav Search different? Is that more limited that the seemingly unlimited number of fighters and strike aircraft?

I've lost a lot of PBYs too, but it's worth it to have full search going on during what may turn out to be a decisive engagement. I need Nav Search now more than I probably will in late '44 or '45, though by then I probably have more than enough anyhow.

Not limited per se, but relatively expensive to make (4 engines vs 2), by Japanese standards unreliable (SR4) and the groups aren't huge or resizeable the way a lot of IJN aircraft are, so there will never be all that many of them. Have you been zapping the H6K / H8Ks, or just floatplanes? The former might well just be resting so as to actually be able to put some aircraft up when needed. I guess from a certain perspective it doesn't matter too much whether he knows exactly where your lot are, if he isn't in a position to do anything with the information (say, with carriers having buggered off to Rabaul for a bit...).

[desicat]

So I fully understand if John is feeling awesome at the moment (hey, he just took his cavalry division on a gallop around the Army of the Potomoc, generating favorable press and making General Meade look clumsy). That's exactly the feeling I'd have in his place.

Regarding JeffK cautionary post, I've detailed at length a few pages back Allied efforts to address defense in Oz, India and China. John can punch a "Battle of the Bulge" bulge somewhere if he achieves local superiority, which is certainly a possibility. But I'd welcome the effort if it involves KB (and Oz or India pretty much have to). The Allies have the initiative. Death Star will be covering important amphibious ops over the coming months, so I won't go off chasing Steroid KB unless a crisis greater than the opportunities presented arises. I don't think that's likely.

Two great historical analogies that are aptly applied, you're on fire.

[Encircled]

Bernard Cornwells "Starbuck Chronicles" have quite a bit (fictional!) about Senator Baker and Balls Bluff.

Dunno why he stopped writing them after four, they are really quite good.

[KenchiSulla]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Both of us have been losing a lot of search aircraft due to big airfields and big carrier TFs. It has occurred to me that perhaps John shut down Nav Search for that reason, but it doesn't make sense. I'm under the impression that the Japanese never run short of aircraft no matter what happens. Or is Nav Search different? Is that more limited that the seemingly unlimited number of fighters and strike aircraft?

I've lost a lot of PBYs too, but it's worth it to have full search going on during what may turn out to be a decisive engagement. I need Nav Search now more than I probably will in late '44 or '45, though by then I probably have more than enough anyhow.

Four engine patrol aircraft are a bit expensive to build, but you could get 30 - 60 per month (120 - 240 engines) without any problem and never run out.. What hurts is the high service rating and the fact that the Japanese only really get a couple of squadrons of these.... You can burn through two or three squadrons and be left blind due to repairs and replacement rules. However, even if he is trying to limit damage to valuable assets, the Japanese have no shortage of long range torpedo planes, capable of flying 17 (G4M) normal range....

[crsutton]

Just a note. He has too many subs about for this stage of the game. I think you should be killing more. Don't overlook that by now your Fletchers and your SC have all upgraded to the MK9 DC while the rest of your ships have the older Mk6. The MK9 is not as powerful but gets an incredible boost in accuracy over any other DC. These are the ships that should be hunting down his subs. As well as the few DE that you have by now. The DE have massive load outs of DC and even one can stay on a sub forever. Too bad the hedgehog is all but useless in the game. But sinking subs should be easy by now regardless.

[Canoerebel]

Allied ASW has been particularly effective the past two months, as I've noted in previous recent posts. Some IJ subs have been sunk; others are limping back to port. I don't know the true state of the sub fleet since the ships sunk list is notoriously unreliable for recently damaged subs, but I think John is wary now in the Marshalls and in the Aleutians.