The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Why does he show the KB if he's not going to use it?

The presence of the KB, especially one on steroids as in this mod, is something that's going to impact on Allied plans regardless of if it's actually used or not.

At any rate, every day that the sKB is operating in the Marshalls is a weeks worth of fuel that Japan won't have in two years time...

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for the info about Edward Dickson Baker. I honestly knew nothing about the guy. It does sound like a remarkable story. I wonder if any decent biographies have been written?

I seem to recall he played a significant role in William safire's historical fiction about civil war

[Canoerebel]

8/31/43

Circus: Steroid KB disappears from Rabaul with no trace, but I have to assume it's bound for the Marshalls or periphery but wasn't picked up by NavSearch. Mini KB remains posted at Wake Island. No major altercations today. An IJN sub picks off an empty APD return from delivery supply to a dot hex holding aviation support and a PBY squadron. Allied patrols report hitting two IJN subs.

Oddly, once again Japanese naval search doesn't seem to pick up any major Allied TFs. The carriers, combat TFs and others have no detection levels. Perhaps John sees them nonetheless as TF icons, but overall John's naval search has been markedly absent.

The invasion of Kwaj goes off tomorrow. It consists of 151st Combat Engineers, one US RCT, two Canadian battalions, and 3rd Marine 'chutes by para-assault. The amphibs will have embedded BBs and the invasion will begin with a pre-landing bombardment by two BB-TF. I do not expect this force to take the island, at least anytime soon. I do hope the attack is sufficient to drop forts a level, reveal strength, and get ashore in enough strength to allow eventual conquest. If, however, the island is too strongly held, then I'll withdraw without hitting Roi-Namur.

Circus: SigInt that 15th Div. is prepping for Adak. 17k supply there now. John cannot take this base as long as there is supply.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: obvert

Why does he show the KB if he's not going to use it?

The presence of the KB, especially one on steroids as in this mod, is something that's going to impact on Allied plans regardless of if it's actually used or not.

At any rate, every day that the sKB is operating in the Marshalls is a weeks worth of fuel that Japan won't have in two years time...

Agreed. I've used it this way, especially early when I knew the Allies couldn't match it. At this point though when they can go toe to toe it seems that unless it's impacting by slowing things down, especially when using that kind of fuel.

[Canoerebel]

Quick question: The Allies just invaded an atoll, triggering an auto-shock attack. Will the unloading of only supply the next day trigger a shock attack? I don't think so, but I want to double check.

[Canoerebel]

9/1/43

Thin Man: Very interesting D-Day at Kwaj. I get most of what I wanted, some things go awry, and I don't get a few things that I wanted.

On the "awry" account, Allied fighters do not fly any sweep or bombing missions. The former is particularly troublesome as it leaves the transports open to CAP when they bring in the 'chutes battalion. Also, the bmobardment TF, which began the day just three hexes from Kwaj, did not bombard until the afternoon part of the turn. This gives John's shoreguns a bit of a reprieve, but the shoreguns do little damage and the afternoon bombardment is very strong, shutting down the airfield (85% damage) and effecitvely targeting the garrison.

The amphibious assault begins early. The amphibs unload all troops and only one APA takes hits from a shore gun.

During the attack phase, the ajusted AVs of both forces are very low. So the Allied attack really messed up the defenses, but lack of preparation for the Allies lets the Japanese off the hook. Forts are six and aren't touched by the assault, which comes of at 8:14 (1:2) with John losing 10 combat squads and the Allies losing 42 combat squads. The defenses consist primarily of 2nd Maijura Assault Div. with various support units.

The failure to drop forts is the main concern. But the Allied troops are ashore in fairly large numbers with alot of supply. With the power of bombardments and the disruption already inflicted, I don't think the Japanese garrison has any chance of successfully counterattacking. Reducing those forts is a longterm proposition. But to save Kwaj, John will have to (I think) commit carriers and/or Kongos.

All troops were landed, so I'm debating whether to keep a few supply ships in place to offload more (though the units are already way oversupplied). The two BBs in the bombardment TF are down to 61% ammo, so they can't be used in that capacity. I haven't checked the two BBs imbedded in the amphib TFs to see how their main gum ammo is, but if that wasn't expended fighting the shore guns, then I'll consider unsing them in another bombardment tonight.

This attack has confirmed what I"ve seen previously - strong garrisons on 6k stacking limit atolls are highly susceptible to attacks supported by strong bombardments. Lack of prep was the only negative factor here, and I don't expect future attacks to involve a lack of prep.

No sign of Steroid KB. Mini KB remains posted at Wake Island.

Death Star is posted just east of Kwaj. All TFs are freshly refueled and all show 100% sorties (with one or two exceptions in the high 90s). So we're ready to fight if John is ready to fight.

BB Alabama arrived at Pearl. It will join BB Washington and CA Indianapolis to form a reinforcing TF heading to the Marshalls.

What happens next will be determined by John. Probably he will react strongly and send KB and Kongos. If so, we'll see if he's willing to commit more forward this time. On the chance that he doesn't commit his carriers (for instance, if fuel is more of a concern than I realize), then the reinforcing BBs will allow me to send in more bombardment TFs. I will also see if AE and Nav Support allow main gun replenishment at Jaluit, which is a levle four port.

Of equal importance, supply continues to offload at the islands. Maloelap, Mili and Jaluit all have 30k+. I'm still working on Ailinglaplap and Wtoje. I plan to attend to Tarawa if Kwaj sucks in all enemy forces, creating an opening further south. If not, I'll use LSTs and barges to attend to it.

Very interesting opening. The failure of the airforces to fly and the lack of prep were critical. But in many ways this was a pretty good opening to the assault.

[Canoerebel]

Any readers know if offloading just supply at Kwaj would trigger an auto shock attack by the troops there? I don't think so, but I can't afford to have them shock attack givent their current states of disruption.

[ny59giants]

I like an inf rgt, combat eng, and tank battalions when invading those small atolls. Even if your a little over the 6k mark, its worth it IMO.

Keep up the ground attacks and bombardments from your warships to keep the disruption high. This will make the capture much easier.

[jwolf]

If your bombardment was successful at Kwaj then chances are his BBs will really do a number on your troops, if they get a chance. So: either a major clash at or near Kwaj, or the Japanese effectively concede the island. The latter seems very unlikely and very uncharacteristic for your opponent; therefore, I predict some very large fireworks, hopefully favoring the Allied side!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Quick question: The Allies just invaded an atoll, triggering an auto-shock attack. Will the unloading of only supply the next day trigger a shock attack? I don't think so, but I want to double check.

Supply only will not trigger a shock attack. Unloading an additional part (fragment, parent) of a unit that is already ashore will trigger a shock attack for that unit.

For future use: the landing shock attack is mandatory for terrain type Atoll, and for island size 1 and island size 2. Michael made it so that when you mouse over enemy bases island size 1 and island size 2 will display (if it's an island size 3,4,5 the island size will not show up on the mouse over). I'm pretty sure that Atoll will also show up on mouse over of enemy base, but you can always use hot key '1' to see terrain type anyway.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks. That's the information I needed. I'll pull back most of the amphibs now, but I will leave a few AKs to unload bonus supply.

All four slow BBs involved in the invasion expended alot of main gun ammo, so no follow up bombardments tonight. I"m not committing my fast BBs, because I want them in shape to handle combat against John's BBs if he commits them.

But another slow BB is en route (west of Johnston Island, already) and two more fast BBs (just arrived at Pearl or just repaired). So if John doesn't react strongly, the Allies can resume the bombardments.

I think John will react strongly and there's a good chance he'll be able to maul the Allied troops ashore. The main thing now is to seek good opportunities or the benefits of friction. I dropped mines SW of Kwaj in open ocean and I'm concentrating my subs a bit.

[Canoerebel]

Kwaj wasn't mined to the teeth. It wasn't mined at all. Multiple "visits" by small DD TFs over the past few weeks indicated that was the case, but I wasn't positive. The configuration of Kwaj and Roi, with reefs blocking mutliple hexsides, lent itself to defenses using mines, subs and combat TFs. But none of those were a factor.

There was a single IJN sub at Kwaj. ASW DDs attacked with reports of heavy damage.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Quick question: The Allies just invaded an atoll, triggering an auto-shock attack. Will the unloading of only supply the next day trigger a shock attack? I don't think so, but I want to double check.

Invading atolls can be an almost zero chance of failure operation for the Allies. From my experience the key is to use appropriate shipping so that your assault troops can unload completely in one phase, and then withdraw immediately. Supply should be provided by separate TFs consisting of LSTs and LCI(Q)s or similar bombardment craft. I break them down into small parcels that deliver either 3,400 or 5,100 supply per day with accompanying shore bombardment. This provides continuous bombardment of the defenders. You can wait while your assault troops recover, and then overwhelm the disrupted defenders.

This technique only works once you have sufficient LSTs and LCs to form the appropriate TFs, but it hasn't failed me yet.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Quick question: The Allies just invaded an atoll, triggering an auto-shock attack. Will the unloading of only supply the next day trigger a shock attack? I don't think so, but I want to double check.

Invading atolls can be an almost zero chance of failure operation for the Allies. From my experience the key is to use appropriate shipping so that your assault troops can unload completely in one phase, and then withdraw immediately. Supply should be provided by separate TFs consisting of LSTs and LCI(Q)s or similar bombardment craft. I break them down into small parcels that deliver either 3,400 or 5,100 supply per day with accompanying shore bombardment. This provides continuous bombardment of the defenders. You can wait while your assault troops recover, and then overwhelm the disrupted defenders.

This technique only works once you have sufficient LSTs and LCs to form the appropriate TFs, but it hasn't failed me yet.

...and 100% preparation.

[poodlebrain]

...and 100% preparation.

Always desirable, but not absolutely necessary. I've often prepped an RCT, combat engineer and armor unit to 100% for some innocuous location. Then I switch the target to my actual location, and I immediately have at least 25% prep for the new target. I've made many successful invasions using this method of limited preparation when opportunities have presented themselves.

Such occasions usually come about when the Japanese commit themselves to defending somewhere and will not be able to intervene when I launch one of these ad hoc invasions. The drawback is that I don't have a scheduled plan for developing the captured base so I can't always capitalize from the invasions. However, I do possess the bases, and the Japanese must adjust their plans accordingly, which is always beneficial.

[Canoerebel]

100% prep helps, but it isn't essential in every case (though it was in this case, where the enemy is well prepared and has many forts). If you can catch the enemy by surprise so that a base isn't adequately garrisoned, or if you have so much time that you can blugeon it to submission, then it's okay to to go in with substandard prep.

I think some players never go in with low prep, missing opportunties. Other players will go in with low prep when the circumstances are right.

I knew this wasn't the right circumstances to allow the Allies to take Kwaj, at least in the short term. But I proceeded for three reasons: (1) there was/is a chance that the Allies will have sufficient time to blugeon the defenses enough to succeed (and time isn't a factor here); (2) this may draw Japan's capital ships back into the Friction Zone; and (3) I wanted to see how John configures his defenses as more of these are coming in the not-too-distant future. As noted, prep should not be an issue for future invasions.

I am confident now that atolls, even well defended, are vulnerable. The only thing standing between the Allies and methodical advances across CenPac is the KB. So that's a high priority. I'm still not willing to go into enemy territory to pick a fight. So enticing John back into the Friction Zone is what I'm aiming for.

[obvert]

What was the starting value of both sides in AV and what did you actually lose in terms of disruptions? In other words what is the current fighting strength of your units?

That more than anything else will likely determine which side wins out here.

[Canoerebel]

9/2/43

Thin Man: No action at Kwajalein today. No ground assaults. No air or naval attacks. (We are having some sync issues, as the replay showed my B25s with escorts tangling with Georges and coming out on the short end.) Mini KB moved SW from Wake to a point near Eniwetok. That's important, because it tells me John wants it in theater. No sign of Steroid KB and the Kongos.

What happens next at Kwaj depends on the latter two. If John reacts strongly, asserting a powerful presence forward so that I have to remain cautious, he'll stop me from taking Kwaj. Disablements were high, even for 151st Combat Engineers, which was 100% prepped. Current raw Allied AV is 44, so the Allies are in no position to fight.

If KB and Kongos don't respond, then the Allies can win. Oklahoma is about three days out. She can team with Nevada for new bombardments. Alabama and Washington are perhaps five days out. Ditto for them. But the real key is probably Jaluit's ability to replenish main gun ammo. It's a level four port with Nav Support. A big AE and an AD will be there in two days. If it can replenish BBs, then the Allies can repeatedly hammer Kwaj in the absence of strong enemy combat ships.

So my ships have pulled back to the vicinity of Maleolap to see if John's coming. I think he is. If so, that prevents me from focusing on Kwaj but creates opportunities to meet the Kaigun in battle.

Supply at Jaluit is up to 37k. Wotje is up to 12k and a reinforcing air HQ just came ashore, bumping av support up to 150+. Maloelap and Mili are at 30+k supply. Ailinglaplap is lagging at 5k. LSTs are en route to Tarawa with 10k supply.

Further back, lots of troops are on transports to Pearl from San Fran. The Allies have 100% prep for Kusaie, Ponape, and Wake. I'm only just beginning prep for Eniwetok. Truk has a modest beginning, as does Manus. The Allies are ready to move again if they can prevail in a carrier battle. With Marshalls supply and overstacking now (mostly) addressed, seeking a carrier battle on favorable terms is now the highest priority.

[Canoerebel]

Thin Man on 9/2/43. Where is Steroid KB? Perhaps that important question will be answered next turn.

[Bearcat2]

Need 614 Naval support at a lvl 4 base to arm the 14" mk7 or 578 naval sup for the 14" mk8 guns
or a AE/AKE with a capacity of at least 3180