The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

He again has zero detection on my carriers, but he can deduce from what's been going on (a long pattern of conduct to judge by) where they are.

I do have pickets to the SE of Wake and also between Wake and Midway. Lots of PBYs operating out of Wotje, Midway, Johnston, Maleolap, etc. should also give notice. It's possible but unlikely he could squeeze through such a narrow window. More importantly, I don't think he'd want to risk it now - he's probably leery of expending fuel fruitlessly, as Mini KB did on it's JEB Stuart ride.

I'm a bit more concerned about a raid into NoPac. I have a good string of pickets between the Hawaiins and the Aleutians. Four or five turns back, I briefly thought I caught sight of a TF of somesort south of Kodiak during the replay. But it didn't show on the turn file. That persuaded me to tweak my pickets. But I do have alot of merchantmen operating in the Gulf Alaska. Job One there is to get Kodiak stuffed with fuel and supply (it has 300+k in both categories. A secondary mission is to push some down to Dutch Harbor, which now has 50k fuel. That, in turn, is enough to handle the barge traffic that's carrying supply to Adak and Ulak.

The Pacific Ocean is a busy place right now.

[JohnDillworth]

He again has zero detection on my carriers, but he can deduce from what's been going on (a long pattern of conduct to judge by) where they are.

This is strange. John has zero detection for an extended period of time. Is it possible that search has missed it for this long, he is not searching in the right place, you have had an extended period of favorable weather or a bug? Johns a good player and he has a vested interest in knowing were your ships are at. Perhaps there ware so many search planes lost that the crews of the new ones are low on experience? strange

[Canoerebel]

John knows what he's doing. He knows me to an extent. I've been to the Marshalls twice, both times refusing to send my carriers sprinting anywhere exposed. And he knows I have a vast fleet in the Marshalls. Ergo, where my fleet is, my carriers are.

Balanced against that is the host of search aircraft he lost to my CAP. So he's content to use guesstimation to keep track of my carriers. I think it cost him when Death Star hit his incoming Kongos. He wasn't expecting my carriers to be close to Ailinglaplap. So in that instance his instincts failed him.

[Canoerebel]

With what seems to be a mounting major threat by John to strike at Adak and Ulak islands in the Aleutians, I'd like to explain how I perceive that threat and how I'll react.

Adak is the key base in the western Aleutians, with a big port and a big airfield. It doesn't dominate John's big five islands further west, but it is a major threat to them. If John can recapture Adak, the Allies are pushed all the way back to the Umnak/Dutch Harbor/Akutan Island line.

Adak is more important to John than it is to me. It is a big threat to his last line of defense in NoPac short of the Home Islands. So I realize why John might give it highest priority. I recognize its value and have garrisoned it strongly. But I won't sortie the fleet to its defense because it would serve as a nice diversion.

My main vector of advance in the coming six months is across CenPac. According to this plan, the Marshalls and nearby islands are therefore more significant to my "route to victory" than Adak is. So if John muscles up on Adak, I'll try to take advantage by expediting offensive operations in CenPac. Wake, Eniwetok, Roi-Namur (and Kwaj, now under siege) are small islands susceptible to being overwhelmed. Ponape and Kusaie are rather isolated and susceptible to being bludgeoned. I have troops 100% prepped for most of these islands. None of them will be easy, but each of them is significant and worthy of full attention.

If John does not divert KB to NoPac, then I have a variety of plans that depend on circumstances.

The Allies are very close to having the necessary prep, amphibious ships, combat ships, and carriers to not dance around while avoiding contact.

[BillBrown]

I would be interested is just what you do have in Adak. AV numbers do not tell the whole story.
It is going to be more about firepower.

[Canoerebel]

This is the backbone of the Allied defenses at Adak. Note experience is relatively high. I'll consider replacing the commander.

[Canoerebel]

This list shows most of the units at Adak, sorted by AV first. I'll post the balance of the units next.

[BillBrown]

Oops, posted too quick

[Canoerebel]

The bottom shows the balance of the units at Adak, including an HQ with Alexander Patch in command.

Other items of note:
1. Forts are 5.
2. Japanese bombardments touched the support troops, not the fighting troops. AV was untouched, as was fatigue and disruption. You can check this out with the 9th Australian Division (that's the Old Peanut 3, by the way).
3. Supply is 16k with LSTs a day out. But John may fight to keep them out. I have a CL and one DD in port with four Fletchers a day out. More are on the way.

If John is coming I think he's only about three days out. I expect KB to cover any landings, though I'm allowing for the possibility that KB is down in the Marshalls.

[BillBrown]

Well, if he does it will be interesting. But I would agree that it will not be easy for him. Too bad you do not have some ART. You could probably have replaced the 3 smaller AA units with 2 or 3 FA units.

[Canoerebel]

9/10/43

NoPac may be the center of a lot of excitement the next few weeks, but since CenPac is the key to victory (IMO), I'll start there.

Thin Man: Allied barges landed some supply at Kwaj. The troops there have gracious plenty, but I want John to think they're struggling. He's bombarding each turn, I think on the assumption that supply is an issue. It isn't for me, but it may be for him. Tomorrow, a series of ASW, combat, and bombardment TFs will target Kwaj. This may be the last such mission...or not, if KB shows up in NoPac.

No sign of Steroid KB or Mini KB.

Three restricted battalions in Hawaii are 100% prepped for Wake. I bought them out and they will reach Pearl in a day or two. A RCT 100% prepped for Eniwetok departed Anchorage three days ago. A tank battalion at Anchorage switched prep from Shemya Island (in the Aleuts) to Wake and will depart Anchorage in about three days. 1st Marines just arrived at Pearl. It's broken into three to expedite rebuilding (already at 37 AV after one turn - before it left San Fran). I may prep it for Truk, or I may prep each RCT separately - Eniwetok, Marcus, Wake. Not sure yet.

The string of merchantmen is nearing Johnston Island. The most important thing is to get the APAs home safely and to get 7th Division into Pearl and to recombine it. I think it's now 100% prepped for Ponape. Already at Pearl is 33rd Division 100% prepped for Ponape and 41st Div. 100% prepped for Kusaie. I'm lacking in other units - combat engineers and armor in particular - since so much of that is in NoPac prepping for Amchitka and the western Aleuts (not to mention the units devoted to Kwaj and Roi-Namur). Speaking of Roi, the transports carrying those units are returning to Pearl to unload and then reload. At the moment, I think I prefer moving on Wake Island first. It's isolated and therefore neither side will have the LBA advantage.

Circus: Enemy CLs tried to hit two LSTs and a YMS inbound to Adak, but apparently they were short on ammo. Both sides declined combat. A large merchant TF (quite possibly and invasion TF) is four hexes SW of Attu (9 hexes west of Ulak, 11 from Adak). This has my full attention. This could be the invasion force. I think John knows Adak is strongly held, so he'll have to bring the kitchen sink. That will create friction and it might also create opportunities in CenPac. I hope so.

Four Fletchers suffered minor damage yesterday, refueled and replenished at Dutch, and will return to Adak tonight (where CL Honolulu is posted with another Fletcher - these on the belief that John's combat TFs expended a lot of ammo during the bombardment two days back). Four more Fletchers just departed San Fran for Dutch, and another is en route from Seattle.

The Pacific is catching fire indeed.

[Canoerebel]

Circus Area of Operations on 9/10/43.

[Canoerebel]

Thin Man as of 9/10/43

[poodlebrain]

I'd almost be tempted to bombard Roi-Namur with the BBs instead of Kwajalein. Laying waste to the AF and any air planes would reduce the Japanese air power in the Marshalls considerably.

[Canoerebel]

I've considered doing so, but the congiguration of the atolls makes it problematic. The bombardment TF would either have to steam right over Kwaj (mines, subs and combat ships that happened to be there could create havoc - going and coming) or else steer wide around, which would take longer and thus enhance the risk. As long as there's a possibity of Steroid KB being in theater, I've avoided taking that extra risk. But if KB shows up far away, then some things become less risky.

[Canoerebel]

9/11/43

Thin Man: The most significant development of the day is that IJN carriers - probably Steroid KB - is sighted two hexes east of Wake Island. NavSearch was a bit sketchy, but there are definitely considerably more carrier aircraft than Mini KB had. If this is Steroid KB it is positioned in such a way as to pose a threat to the line of merchantment making for Pearl Harbor. A Glen-equipped sub is southeast of Johnston Island giving daily reports. And IJN subs tangled with a variety of TFs, including an empty replenishment one. A sub sank an xAK loaded with part of a Sea Bee unit.

The Allied TFs have a big head start and most of them can probably close on Pearl before KB could pounce. But this isn't absolutely clear yet. For instance, John could use flank speed. And some of the slower xAKs are definitely in danger. But some of the Allied TFs are so close to Pearl now that they should be out of danger. And some of the others are fast APA TFs that could divert to the SE, leading John on a merry chase. I have another replenishment TF to the SE that can refueld any ships that have to run from danger.

So there is risk to important Allied ships. But there is also a chance that John will be engaging in another fuel-costly JEB Stuart ride.

Every aspect of this game seems to be tense all the time.

Back in the Marshalls, two separate slow-BB bombardment TFs hit Kwaj without doing major damage (they were preceded by combat, ASW and DMS TFs). I can only hope that disruption is high for the Japanese troops ashore. The Allied troops are recovering - 110 AV now. The US RCT is the biggest issue. It's prep is now up to 33%, so it has a long way to go to get into fighting trim.

Death Star will remain inside the Marshalls while monitoring the Steroid KB situation. One Hellcat squadron is down to 25 aircraft, so I'm going to send it to a base to replenish (temporarily replacing it with a land-based Hellcat squadron).

There are still a bunch of supply ships (mainly xAK) unloading fuel and supply, mainly at Maloelap. Maloelap has 12k fuel and there's big replenishment TF there, which just topped off the bombardment TFs and two combat TFs. Tomorrow it will unit with the carrier TFs to top them off.

Circus: Suddenly no signs of impending threat in the western Aleutians. SigInt now reports that 14th Div. is aboard marus heading for Japanese-held Shemya. I don't know if John is toying with me for decoy purposes or whether he can't decide whether to pull the trigger on an invasion. Maybe he thought the threat would send Death Star sprinting north into the teeth of Steroid KB hiding near Wake? Maybe that should be my working hypothesis. If Steroid KB doesn't move strongly east toward Allied shipping tomorrow, I think that hypothesis will be right on target.

There is so much going on in this game - all the time - that everything seems risky or full of promise. What a blast.

[ny59giants]

A TF made up of 3 or 4 Clevelands and 8 Fletchers would be able to handle themselves to and from Roi-Namur unless they run into his big boys. If you some of those plentiful Aussie AMs, send them in to clear any potential mines.

[Canoerebel]

Too much risk for too little reward. Roi-Namur is a big Japanese airfield, but the threat is manageable with Death Star controlling the skies. I don't have enough Clevelands and Fletchers to create a new TF and risk it that far out. Too many things could go wrong. It could get hung up and pounded by Japanese strike aircraft.

If the need was great enough I'd work out a way to hit Roi-Namur. But right now, with Kwaj airfield trashed, the situation is acceptable.

I'm risking good ships all over the place. Risking more to hit Roi under present circumstances just doesn't seem profitable.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Too much risk for too little reward. Roi-Namur is a big Japanese airfield, but the threat is manageable with Death Star controlling the skies. I don't have enough Clevelands and Fletchers to create a new TF and risk it that far out. Too many things could go wrong. It could get hung up and pounded by Japanese strike aircraft.

If the need was great enough I'd work out a way to hit Roi-Namur. But right now, with Kwaj airfield trashed, the situation is acceptable.

I'm risking good ships all over the place. Risking more to hit Roi under present circumstances just doesn't seem profitable.

You are doing great. Play the game at your pace and control the dance. John isnt in total control anymore and that will frustrate him and may lead him to make a mistake that you can take advantage of.

[Canoerebel]

A few final details about this past turn:
1. A sub sank a good IJN DD near Amchitka.
2. I pulled a Hellcat squadron off Sartoga to Maleolap and replaced its aircraft (it was down from 36 to 23). It's place on Sara was taken by an LBA Hellcat squadron fresh in from New Zealand.
3. Several other carriers have fighter squadrons down in the 20s. My fighter numbers are still acceptable, but its another reason to not get too frisky. I'll work on replenising these over the next few days.
4. If John's activity in NoPac is indeed a decoy, he's already accomplished one thing. I turned on "Upgrade" for 9th Australian Division. In that one turn it upgraded all infantry and combat engineers from '42 to '43 squads. So Adak bristles more than ever, but it may be for naught if John isn't coming.