The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Looking southeast from near the summit of Blood Mountain.

By the way, these photos are lovely and do justice the beauty of the forest and the mountains in the springtime. They seem almost idyllic. They don't properly provide perspective: sweat, weariness, bugs, dirt, poison ivy, or the thousands of other little things that make backpacking no mere "walk in the woods."

All worth it for that kind of perspective and accomplishment with good company. Thanks for the pics.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/16/43

Thin Man: The two Steroid KB divisions reunited just south of Johnston Island. Almost certainly this ends the ride of JEB Stuart. No new air strikes today, so all Allied shipping seems to be out of harm's way. This raid basically netted John three empty xAKs. Where does KB go from here? I suspect John will retire in the direction of Wake Island, where Mini KB is posted.

Tomorrow he'll find that his most direct route may be contested. Death Star, now fully replenished on sorties, topped off with fuel, and each squadron full of aircraft, will move north tonight five or six hexes to a point just east of Wotje. This doesn't mean a clash is inevitable, but it will force John to consider whether he wishes to offer battle. If he does, he'll steam more westerly and a battle may well occur - he's fairly distant from Truk and I'm not too far from Pearl, so I'd accept, I think. If John decides against offering, he'll steam NW as thought to pass between Wake and Midway. My hunch is he'll prefer to avoid battle.

If you keep hedging him and he doesn't want a battle all of a sudden, he's going to find himself in tough territory. Out of fuel and far from home.

It's always hard going into a potential CV engagement. We all know the weather, admiral's decisions, coordination and a number of other issues could turn a battle completely against us. If you are ready to try it out I wonder if you could pick off his AOs (and the mini-KB?) by simply heading due North from the Marshalls. Without fuel in the KB suddenly that list of things that could go wrong gets much shorter for the Allies. [;)]

EDIT: I got interrupted in responding and just read through the comments that posted before mine. Looks like a few of us are thinking the same thing! [:D]

[Miller]

If your death star has the same number of a/c as the steroid KB then you simply have to accept battle if the chance presents itself, his cripples would have nowhere to go other than to the bottom of the sea......

[BillBrown]

Agree. Push your subs North/Northwest to be between Wake and the Marianas. Move the DS North and then a bit Northwest.
He is a long way form home and PH is not far for you.

[Canoerebel]

I'm balancing several factors: I want to give battle given contrasting distances from home ports (favors Allies) and because Death Star is fully replenished and should be equal to KB. On the other hand, I'd ordinarily want to wait ten more turns until CV Bunker Hill and CVL Cowpens arrive. But, in the end, I'm moving forward to pursue the possibility of a carrier clash. Death Star ordered to a point two hexes east of Ailuk Island (three hexes ENE of Wotje). It will be interesting to see how John reacts.

[John B.]

Can't wait!

[Canoerebel]

9/17/43

Thin Man: Banzai!

I mean it: Banzai!

In a miscalculation, the Japanese commander at Kwajalein orders a banzai charge that guts his army. I wasn't expecting this and didn't dare attack myself, as bombardment recon indicated John's army was a strong as mine. I was biding my time with reinforcements on the way from Canada. So when the movie neared the end and suddenly a deliberate attack popped up at Kwaj, I was surprised, a bit alarmed, but confident that the Allied army was strong enough to hold. Immediately, the Japanese AV dropped to 0, so I knew the outcome would exceed expectations. Here is the result:

Ground combat at Kwajalein Island (132,115)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 4737 troops, 114 guns, 12 vehicles, Assault Value = 176
Defending force 4730 troops, 57 guns, 48 vehicles, Assault Value = 137

Japanese adjusted assault: 1
Allied adjusted defense: 97
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 97

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2552 casualties reported
Squads: 118 destroyed, 40 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 32 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 50 (15 destroyed, 35 disabled)
Vehicles lost 11 (4 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
15 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
2nd Maizuru Assault Division
42nd JNAF AF Unit
Nimur Naval Fortress
Kwajalein Base Force
32nd AA Battalion
24th Air Flotilla /1

Defending units:
3rd USMC Parachute Battalion
Brockville Rifles Battalion
201st(Sep) Infantry Regiment
151st Combat Engineer Regiment
Edmonton Fusiliers Battalion

This should decisively weaken the Japanese garrison. Allied units all show "0" fatigue and either "3" or "4" disruption. They will deliberate attack tomorrow (no shock attack on the off chance that the defenders, while weakened, still have strength behind six forts or in case John lands reinforcements).

Weeks ago, I had decided that it would be best to wait at Kwaj - to let the US RCT prep and for reinforcements to arrive. I also decided that the best way to help at Kwaj would be to attack elsewhere. The plan to attack elsewhere is still in effect. More about that later.

At sea, you can see from the embedded map that Steroid KB has reunited not too distant from Johnston Island, that replenishment ships are out there, and that Mini KB is east of Wake and in a position to unite. John has put himself in a bit of a ticklish situation. If KB needs fuel, he'll have to unite with the AOs and then he'll have to shepherd them to safety.

Death Star didn't move as far as it was supposed to, probably because the CV TF at Jaluit was one hex further away from the core group. This left several combat TFs exposed without air cover, but fortunately Japanese LBA didn't sortie. It also left me uncertain that my TFs will obey orders. I want to advance, but I don't want big ships left naked. I have to be careful. I've chosen for the advance group of TFs to move two hexes NE, with the carriers then to rendezvous with them (a 5-hex journey). There is a risk of calamity if TFs don't obey orders. I think they will - there's no "daisy chain" this time. But I'll be nervous when I send the turn to John.

John had spotty and low detection on just a few of the exposed combat TFs and carrier TFs. He knows ships are suddenly showing up well NE of where any have been seen before, so he's probably on full alert now. What does he do? Flee? Hesitate and refuel? Steam strongly west looking for battle? Most interesting.

Down at Tabituea three USN DDs intercepted a Japanese merchant TF inbound (and under observation for many days). The destroyers sank a PB and perhaps three xAKs and damaged others.

Circus: Death Star North (three CVEs) happened across another xAK midway between Hawaii and the Aleutians and sank it. That's good, but now John's had a bead on these vulnerable carriers for two or three turns. I'm radically changing course. I don't want him to detach a strong CL/DD force that might cause problems.

Up in the Aleutians, things seem fairly quiet. There is a big combat TF (seems to be mainly DDs) at Amchitka. I don't know if this is offense or defense. Arleigh Burke now has eight Fletchers under his command at Adak. That's his strongest force yet. He'll remain on the defense for the time being.

[Canoerebel]

Then I open SigInt and find this:

SIG INT REPORT FOR Sep 17, 43

83rd JAAF AF Bn is located at Sapporo(120,51).
Radio transmissions detected at Kendari (70,106).
4th RGC Division is located at Tungchow(92,53).
34th Road Const Co is located at Soerabaja(56,104).
13th Border Defense Fortress is located at 114,31.
23rd Field AA Machinecannon Company is located at Yenki(110,44).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Tokyo (114,60).
Radio transmissions detected at Kanoya (102,61).
Radio transmissions detected at Eniwetok (127,108).
Radio transmissions detected at Genzan (105,48).
Radio transmissions detected at Ponape (119,113).
Radio transmissions detected at Banjoewangi (57,107).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Singapore (50,84).
48th JAAF AF Bn is located at Exmouth(50,129).
Korea Army is located at Keijo(103,50).
Radio transmissions detected at Shwebo (59,45).
25th Ind. Engineer Regiment is located at Sendai(117,58).
7th Mongol Cavalry Division is located at Chinchow(101,41).
27th Fld AA Gun Co is located at Changchun(106,41).
16th Division is located at Darwin(76,124).
39th Road Const Co is located at Pegu(55,53).
15th Garrison Unit is located at 55,48.
Peng Hu Fortress is located at Pescadores(84,63).
Radio transmissions detected at Shikuka (126,43).
28th JAAF AF Bn is located at Palembang(48,91).
Northeast Area Fleet is located at Attu Island(153,49).
3rd Army is located at Yenki(110,44).
39th Division is located at Liuchow(74,55).
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment is located at 79,52.
29th Field AA Machinecannon Company is located at Changchun(106,41).
DD Amagiri is moving to 147,111.
9/70th Infantry Brigade is loaded on xAK Tokuhei Maru moving to Amchitka Island.

That destination hex is four hexes west of the current location of the IJN AO TF (see map). I think this is the "original destination" for that ship as of yesterday. But John has probably changed it's destination with this next turn in light of developments. Still, it gives me insight into where that destroyer was heading originally.

[BBfanboy]

Man, those AOs have no business being between your DS and KB. It makes me think he had no idea your CVs were still in the Gilberts/Marshalls area. That would explain his crazy foray to the east - he was trying to sniff out their location.

As for that shock attack at Kwaj - IIRC a very high aggression commander will sometimes initiate one without orders for J3HQ. As in real life, they usually turn out badly against well equipped defenders with supply.

I like the good friction you got on that supply TF near Tabituea! Always good when the bad guys turn themselves in! [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Two more items as I finish the turn and send it to John:
1. KB and Mini KB will almost certainly "meet in the middle" between their two current locations. IJN AO TF will move north towards that same spot. That will leave John in a position to extricate KB by sailing NW or NNW. Or, if he prefers, he can seek battle.
2. Recon is giving surprising info that the Roi-Namur garrison is considerably reduced from 9k to about 4k. It is possible that this is misinformation - that my recon didn't fly for a few days, resumed today, and that the report is incomplete and will "fill in" with additional men over the next day or two. But I'll monitor this carefully as it could be a key indicator of John's psyche. Is he dug in and prepared to fight, or has he written off the Marshalls, thus ordering an improvident attack at Kwaj and a withdrawal from Roi. I may know tomorrow.

[JeffroK]

But it wasnt even a shock attack, has JIII got advice that it would be better to kill off his units and rebuild them??

While you USians might call it a JEB Stuart raid, a more modern Commonwealth view is Rommels "Totensonntag" raid during Crusader!

Same result (except I'd [refer a result like Stuarts absence at Gettysburg!)

[Encircled]

More "Dash to the Wire" then Totensonntag surely?

No damage at to the allies combat units, and lots of running damage to the Japanese

Lovely pictures btw, much greener than it is up near us in the Lake District

[Bif1961]

Strategist say the best time to seek battle is when your enemy is withdrawing and you are fully supplied and rested. With that in mind will you advance on him and try to engage the KB?

[Canoerebel]

Last night I had a dream about Ross Sutton....no, wait! That didn't happen...

Now, what was it that really happened game related? Oh, now I remember. My first thought on waking this morning was, "What if my carrier TFs don't catch up to those BBs out there in the open?"

I really think they will (else I wouldn't have issued the orders), but the mere possibility is not a good first thought of the day.

Now, back to analyzing crsutton's dreams....

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961
Strategist say the best time to seek battle is when your enemy is withdrawing and you are fully supplied and rested. With that in mind will you advance on him and try to engage the KB?

My carriers are moving north as though to offer battle, but the gap between them and the combat TFs has thrown things off so that the carriers aren't making the speed they ought to make. So next turn they (hopefully) go four hexes to reunite. Then they can move as a group.

But my guess is that John doesn't seek battle - that KB instead veers NW to avoid contact. If that is what happens, the Allies follow in its wake....to Wake.

[obvert]

Those AOs are moving in to refuel his CVs. Not sure he'll be able to refuel it all in a day. Wouldn't it give you a huge advantage to strike while he's used up his ops on refueling?

If he does refuel and you don't strike, that is a day sitting still. You could also go NW and still end up in his way after that. Aside from the fact we all want to see a big dust-up, he's been flying and hunting for days now and those planes will a tad more worn out than yours. Especially the ones using drop tanks. I'd bet my pants JIII doesn't get into the details like airframe fatigue and maintenance unless he's forced to, but the DB especially will wear down and at service 3, it'll take a while to get them going again.

You're also all upgraded to Hellcats I presume?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, all fleet carriers have had Hellcats for months now. I think the CVLs have a mixture of Hellcats and F4Fs. One fleet carrier - I think it's Enterprise - is carrying 48 extra Hellcats (on top of 36) as a fighter platform.

You're right about replenishing. It might take more than one day. And I don't think he's replenished yet. I'm not positive, but I think one part of Steroid KB used flank speed. So he may have several issues to deal with along the lines that you speak of.

I'll know better when I see the next turn.

Question: Which is more important? Meeting KB in a fair fight now or waiting until it isn't fair while prosecuting the invasion of Wake Island? I think good arguments can be made either way. And my carriers are going to proceed on a N or NE heading, meaning that I'm offering battle. So it'll be up to John to decide if he wants to give battle. I do think he'll be able to elude if he wishes too. There are several scenarios, but one is that he uses flank speed. I won't (unless something were to happen in which there were a juicy and defenseless prize out there).

[Bullwinkle58]

I know I sound like a broken record (and you're old enough to know what that means [;)]), but the only purpose of warships--the ONLY purpose in the end--is to support operations ashore. Look at the question that way.

[Canoerebel]

I'd never heard that before, Moose. Or, if I had, I'd forgotten. By that standard, I've (intuitively or accidentally) done a good job staying on task here in the Marshalls.

We are entering the phase in which the only thing stopping the Allies from moving forward is KB. I'm satisfied now that I have learned enough and have enough assets to take or wear down any base for which I have troops prepped. I have troops prepped for all the Aleutians and all the remaining islands in the Marshalls and to the west (short of Truk). Each of these islands is strongly garrisoned, so each step takes time (organize, move, land, batter, rinse, repeat).

So beating KB would be decisive. But I don't know if I have the assets yet to have a 60/40 chance of winning. It's probably more like 51/49 at the moment (at least from visible factors).

Taking so many of the Marshalls so quickly and so cheaply back in June was a huge victory for the Allies, even more in retrospect. Well defended, the Marshalls present a nasty aspect of enemy nests - interlocking airfields. But I managed to neuter that aspect, opening up the next layer - Ponape, Kusaie, Eniwetok, Wake, and (eventually) Truk and Wolei. Those bases are much more isolated and thus present a significantly better environment for the offense to operate in.

Operation Roller Coaster was outstanding.

[JohnDillworth]

Is the KB now only as fast as his replenishment TF? He certainly can't leave it behind and LR Cap leaves less to guard the CV's. Looks like a liability. If John does give battle he will have to leave it behind him. How far out is the new CV and CVL in case he leaves the replenishment fleet exposed?

[Canoerebel]

Bunker Hill and Cowpens just reached the map, so they are probably six days or so from this area. They won't be a factor in the battle, if it happens.

I agree that John has to shepherd his replenishment ships (I think I used those words a few posts back).

Here's the deciding factor, to my way of thinking: For several weeks, my plan has been to invade Wake Island, with the knowledge that KB might respond strongly so that I'd have to give battle out there in the open. I still plan to invade Wake, so wouldn't it be better to face KB now, while she's a bit fagged, rather than in 10 days, when perhaps she replenished fuel, sorties, missing aircraft, etc.?

I could well lose this battle, but I do think the circumstances warrant offering battle. I hope I'm not Lee explaining to Longstreet why he has to attack the Yankees on Missionary Ridge.

(For us AE Americans and many others, is there any end to the metaphors and similes we draw on from our Civil War?)