The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[uncivil_servant]

Attack vs. Lay Back?

Reasons to Attack:
1.) Morale. Enemy morale likely is shaken. Loss of second carrier fleet must hurt.
2.) If you outnumber him in planes you have an advantage (your historical DS numbers versus KB numbers)
3.) If you have the planes and pilots in reserve to attack - will you ever get a better shot? i.e. No/few LB planes to muck up the works.
4.) You are both far from major bases to hide in/repair in. Allied D/C repair gives slight advantage far from home (?)

Reasons to be Cautious:
1.) The cat and mouse 8 hexes versus 7 hexes advantage (???)
2.) You have a victory - don't get cocky. Gods of dice rolls/rng may change sides.
3.) If you don't have sufficient spare planes and pilots a loss, even without flattops, could put back naval air power for quite some time.

Unknowns:
1.) Dice rolls.
2.) Everything else not known...

Verdict: Keep up the Skeer
You'll likely never get a chance again for the enemy carrers to be to your east, with you between it and its home. Unless you lose badly, even if you draw, his wounded must traverse your line of ships to make it home. The same does go for you though.

His ride 'round your lines deserves a good Sheridan counter maneuver.

[BBfanboy]

[&o][&o]

That was a massive smackdown - his TF composition was poor IMO - no flak-heavy ships embedded and too many CVEs in one TF. It showed in strike fragmentation. You also got favourable weather for the first few raids and he didn't have success until the big raid found "partial cloud".

Are you sure some of those strikes came from Steroid KB? The numbers seem low for that.
I agree with taking on Steroid KB, but your pilots will have some fatigue and you used some torpedoes, so I can understand if you decide not to.

[HansBolter]

Superb! Absolutely Superb!

Hat's off....

[Canoerebel]

The Allies will press forward five more hexes. This will interdict any "regular" speed movements by KB to NW or W. If John continues regular speed, he'll have to go S or SE to avoid battle. If he's really desperate, he can order flank speed and steam due west. In that event, he can make it to within his perimeter near Roi and Eniwetok. But if he chooses that course of action he might blunder into the entire Allied navy, including many combat TFs (of course, the blundering might work havoc on my TFs). Another option for his is to steam at flank NW or NNW.

Will he seek battle? I don't think so, but it's possible.

My ships are in fine shape regarding sorties and numbers of aircraft. Probably 50% of TBF squadrons don't have torps. Most TF are high on AA and none are less than 62%.

Enterprise has 24 SYS damage (little other damage) and Hornet has less than that. Both can still make good speed. The AI detached their TF to return to the Marshalls. I belayed those orders, partly because any TF heading into the Marshalls might hit concentrated LBA. Better to stick with Death Star.

Massachusetts and St. Louis can make about 15 mph. I'm not sending them home due to the LBA threat. Instead, they're set to follow a ASW TF to the ENE (KB is east and will move NW or S, so this is probably the safest course). If this TF survives, she'll make directly for Pearl Harbor.

It was a good day. I hope tomorrow is a good day.

[Lecivius]

Nice job.

[Canoerebel]

Due to sync issues I didn't see the origins of any strike aircraft, but Steroid KB ended up eight hexes from Death Star (yikes!)

The eight CVEs he lost held something like 220 aircraft. He lost 520 on the day. Or so the reports claim. So Steroid KB had to be involved in the strikes unless I'm overlooking something.

I showed John starting with 900 aircraft (to my 1100). Mouseover now shows him with 750 to my 1050. He lost 520 on the day, so at first blush I thought, "Hey, he should only have 480 left!" But he's undoubtedly sent in reinforcements from land-based squadrons).

So it may be 1050 aircraft vs. 750 aircraft. That's a good ratio, especially if a fair percentage of John's squadrons are disabled or fatigued (to match the levels in my squadrons, which are actually in good shape).

[poodlebrain]

Wow! Congratulations on winning the first round of the fight.

There is a lot of information available from the combat report that can help you determine if you want a second round of fighting. For instance IJN carrier aircraft flew about 700 sorties in attacks against your TFs, split between the morning and afternoon. Taking strike composition and aircraft losses into consideration together with lost deck capacity should give you a pretty good idea of the aircraft left to the KB. Do you have the desired correlation of aircraft available to press the battle? Can you reasonably expect to avoid the 7 hex range curse? If you are not comfortable with the answers to these questions, then there is nothing wrong with retiring toward the Marshalls and going about your business there. Securing Kwajalein and following up with Roi Nemur was the higher priority objective. Has that changed?

ETA: 12 lousy seconds, and my post is moot. Good luck.

[Canoerebel]

The priorities when Thin Man began were these:

1. Secure Allied bases in the Marhsalls and Gilberts by offloading supply and retrieving units from overstacked bases.
2. Seek advantageous battle versus combat ships or carriers.
3. Amphibious assault on Kwaj and/or Roi.

The first objective has been met.

The third objective morphed into something new that I haven't discussed much. Two weeks back, I concluded that the best way to take some heat of Kwaj and Roi would be to attack Wake Island. The amphibis are already en route. So I have no immediate plans Roi and Kwaj. I will hit Wake soon unless things go awry with the carrier battle.

The second objective is still on the table. There are no guarantees that the Allies will emerge victorious tomorrow (or, for that matter, that a battle will even take place). But the odds have swung decidedly in my favor. It's not 100% to 0%, but I'd guess it is something like 65% to 35% if a battle takes place.

I'm sure John is livid and demoralized - man, it's hard to lose a carrier battle. Another big blow tomorrow and he's really going to be despairing.

[Canoerebel]

CAP percentages during the turn were 40% for Hellcats and 50% for everything else (Wildcats and Martletts).

I've adjusted all of those to 50% now.

[Cap Mandrake]

Your CAP held up fantastically well to wave after wave of well escorted raids.

The TBF crews are murder as well. The only reason to not press on is if you don't want him to give up. [:)]

[paullus99]

An invasion of Wake! Oh man, that's absolutely awesome.

Either way, John's got to get his ships out of the way (those that survive), which means that he'll be completely out of position when you attack.

This is a very promising move & one that will definitely be the icing on the cake. Good luck!

[Canoerebel]

Oh, it's me versus him. If I beat him on the battlefields in '45, that's good. If I drive him to despairing surrender in the autumn of '43, that's good. John is my good gaming friend. I even sympathize with him in his feelings right now. But after all these years of "Banzai!" and some painful beatings (six months of daily nuclear bombardments at Sabang! KB hammering underprotected CVs in my first WitP game with him a decade ago), it's me versus him.

[Canoerebel]

Consistent recon shows Wake with a garrison of 5.5k, considerably less than all his remaining holdings in the Marshalls and points west. 5.5k is a manageable number.

The Allies have a Candian brigade and a US RCT. Both are 100% prepped. I also have a handful of Sherman tanks from a partial unit that is prepped only like 20%, but I just want to see what they might do.

But if the Allies emerge from this carrier battle in decent shape, and if BB main gun ammo isn't all shot away, the Navy should be able to batter Wake into submission.

That's the plan. The amphibs are lurking west of Pearl - I can't send them too far forward because there's no telling where John might send his carriers if flight is his priority.

[SqzMyLemon]

Well done! Your opponent's play speaks for itself, and I won't pile on. We all knew it was possible with how badly the IJN carriers were being handled. [8D]

[Mike McCreery]

Isnt wake capacity only 6,000 troops? Are you using SL's?

5.5K means he packed everything that it could hold.

[paullus99]

Oh, I know that you & John go way back (and I've enjoyed each of those AARs too).

I just get a little tired of his crowing....about time he was on the other end of a Banzai for once.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The eight CVEs he lost held something like 220 aircraft. He lost 520 on the day. Or so the reports claim. So Steroid KB had to be involved in the strikes unless I'm overlooking something.

I showed John starting with 900 aircraft (to my 1100). Mouseover now shows him with 750 to my 1050. He lost 520 on the day, so at first blush I thought, "Hey, he should only have 480 left!" But he's undoubtedly sent in reinforcements from land-based squadrons).

So it may be 1050 aircraft vs. 750 aircraft. That's a good ratio, especially if a fair percentage of John's squadrons are disabled or fatigued (to match the levels in my squadrons, which are actually in good shape).

Yeah, my thinking on the air losses and numbers ran something like this, though not as specific. He lost a lot of planes that turn, say very roughly split between the mini KB and the full KB. Your strike aircraft are still in pretty good shape while his are rather battered, although the Jap fighters should still be pretty strong. This looks like about as good a shot as you'll ever get unless he makes a terrible mistake later.

[Canoerebel]

Paullus, oh, I am with you. Very hard to hear "Banzai!" after "Banzai!" and not see it as taunting. I don't think John is aware how it comes across to the poor Allied vicitim who has to mostly endure it for the first 1.5 years of the war.

[Canoerebel]

Wargmr, we are playing with stacking limits, which is a tremendous development in the game. I can't imagine playing without them.

But stacking limits have a mythology about them. My experience with them is that 2x is quite sustainable. The only time I've seen real problems is at 3x.

Now, that's for the Allied player, who generally has alot of supply. Perhaps the Japanese player has to stretch more at 2x. But John has many of the Marshalls at 2x, including Kwaj, Roi, and Eniwetok.

So Wake at 1x is quite alluring. Allied BBs, if not warded off by the enemy, are devestating when bombarding atolls (at least in combination with BBs embedded in amphibious TFs). I think if KB is out of the picture (sprinting away or going somewhere to refuel), the Allies can take Wake with two RCT. I'd embed two slow BBs with the invasion TF and have another BB TF bombard on D-Day. Too, I think John reinforced relatively recently, so perhaps prep and forts aren't that great. With the assault troops 100% prepped, I think the chances of success would be fairly high.

[Miller]

Congrats on your victory. The morale of his strike aircraft pilots will be shot to bits and they will turn back in droves against your massed CAP (if they fly at all)! Time to finish him off.