The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I'll post in detail in just a moment. First, though, I'll share here the email I just sent to John. He hasn't expressed any despair beyond what I've already mentioned, but I know this is a rough patch for him. It's hard to write him in a way that doesn't somehow convey taunting, condescension or false empathy. But I've tried to craft a genuinely encouraging note:

"Thanks in part to the many whippings you've administered in this game and over the years, I suspect I know how you feel at the moment. There have been times when I felt like my hair was on fire, when I could feel my scalp tingle. I swear there have been occasions where I could even feel my hair turning gray. It is an agonizing feeling to get embroiled in a tough battle and then to have difficulty extracting your ships. Oh yes, you have had me right there more than once.

"Thanks to lessons I've learned through matches with you (and some others), I know that it takes time to fully recover my sense of balance and determination. Usually, I try to fip turns fast so that I can rid my nostrils of any lingering stench. But sometimes it helps to breath for a spell.

"As every Alied player who has suffered at your hands can attest, the climb back out of the gloomy days brings its own rewards and senses of accomplishment. The Japanese in your hands will always be dangerous. This has been a major battle, but it's just the first of many to come. I am under no illusions that you are on the ropes. You've been stung, so you will therefore be all the more cagey and dangerous.

"I have the turn mostly done. I doubt you want it right now judging by your last email suggesting that your window for doing turns may have closed today, but send word when you're ready for it."

[JeffroK]

THIS,is surely , the beginning of the end!
WSC, some part American dude,

IFF he has swapped out his strike aircraft for fighters, what bases are poorly capped and full of bombers??

[Canoerebel]

This was a good turn but work remains to be done. Steroid KB is wounded but if allowed to withdraw would not be seriously attrited. It appears that the Allies still have the means to attack a slowed and weakened enemy, so I'm going to attack even though there is risk.

First, it does seem to me that John pulled out his strike aircraf and replaced them with fighters. Interesting strategy that migth have worked but didn't quite. He managed to down about 200 Allied aircraft, but enough got through to weaken KB by perhaps one-third. I counted 13 flattops (CV and CVL) present. I think at least four are damaged to the point of sinking or close thereto. A few others may not be able to handle flight ops.

But John might be able to load up the balance with strike aircraft. If he's down by 33% in what he can handle, that might mean roughly 500 aircraft left. I think the Allies have roughly 800 left. So the ratio is still promising.

As best I can tell, none of his carriers (or other hard hit ships) have gone down. So the cripples and wounded may lag while John detaches the healthy to get the heck out of dodge. What other choices does he have?

So four combat TFs will move NW in hopes of intercepting Japanese ships. And Death Star will move NNW.

Wake is a threat as a level three airfield, but thus far John hasn't flooded it with aircraft. That could change, but I wonder if he lacks aviation support or supply.

I'll give this at least the one more turn. After that I'll probably withdraw the carriers (though some combat ships might continue hunting).

More subs have been vectored to points west and north of Wake. At this point, John might withdraw to Tokyo as opposed to Truk.

Three CVEs are moving on Midway from NoPac - probably five days out. Bunker Hill and Cowpens are two days from Pearl. The Wake invasion force is moving forward again - just a guess that D-Day could be in ten days.

BB Massachusetts and CL St. Louis broke contact successfully and are on their way to Pearl, following an ASW TF.

I'll post a more order summary in my usual format tonight. But this covers most of the major stuff.

[Canoerebel]

By the way, CV Renkaku is different from CV Raikaku, which took a torp a month ago. I don't think she's been present for this engagement.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll post in detail in just a moment. First, though, I'll share here the email I just sent to John. He hasn't expressed any despair beyond what I've already mentioned, but I know this is a rough patch for him. It's hard to write him in a way that doesn't somehow convey taunting, condescension or false empathy. But I've tried to craft a genuinely encouraging note:

"Thanks in part to the many whippings you've administered in this game and over the years, I suspect I know how you feel at the moment. There have been times when I felt like my hair was on fire, when I could feel my scalp tingle. I swear there have been occasions where I could even feel my hair turning gray. It is an agonizing feeling to get embroiled in a tough battle and then to have difficulty extracting your ships. Oh yes, you have had me right there more than once.

"Thanks to lessons I've learned through matches with you (and some others), I know that it takes time to fully recover my sense of balance and determination. Usually, I try to fip turns fast so that I can rid my nostrils of any lingering stench. But sometimes it helps to breath for a spell.

"As every Alied player who has suffered at your hands can attest, the climb back out of the gloomy days brings its own rewards and senses of accomplishment. The Japanese in your hands will always be dangerous. This has been a major battle, but it's just the first of many to come. I am under no illusions that you are on the ropes. You've been stung, so you will therefore be all the more cagey and dangerous.

"I have the turn mostly done. I doubt you want it right now judging by your last email suggesting that your window for doing turns may have closed today, but send word when you're ready for it."

This reminds me of Cobb's Regiment pouring down fire on their fellow Irishmen in the Fighting 69th at Fredericksburg and then giving them a cheer afterward. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

Allied fighter and strike squadrons have good morale and low fatigue. Sorties for the ship are mostly at 80%. At this point John might choose to swap out many of the fighters for strike aircraft if he plans to stay and defend his cripples. Or if he's more concerned with saving the uninjured and walking wounded, he might keep them overloaded with fighters and just flee for his life.

[Canoerebel]

There you go, CAP.

But I seem to remember that at Missionary Ridge, the victorious Yankees got their revenge by yelling, "Fredricksburg! Fredricksburg!"

[JohnDillworth]

This will be dissected by the participants for a long time. On first blush it looks like a bad idea compounded by extremely bad luck (assuming John is not a terrible player, and thats a safe assumption). Sending the KB into Indian country without a place to refuel and not knowing the whereabouts of the Deathstar was criminal. The lack of detection, for whatever reason, just made this so very much worse. Sometimes you are the fly and sometimes you are the windshield. Today John was 100% fly. Dan, seems the gods of war smiled on you today, but well played sir. well played indeed

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This was a good turn but work remains to be done. Steroid KB is wounded but if allowed to withdraw would not be seriously attrited. It appears that the Allies still have the means to attack a slowed and weakened enemy, so I'm going to attack even though there is risk.

First, it does seem to me that John pulled out his strike aircraf and replaced them with fighters. Interesting strategy that migth have worked but didn't quite. He managed to down about 200 Allied aircraft, but enough got through to weaken KB by perhaps one-third. I counted 13 flattops (CV and CVL) present. I think at least four are damaged to the point of sinking or close thereto. A few others may not be able to handle flight ops.

But John might be able to load up the balance with strike aircraft. If he's down by 33% in what he can handle, that might mean roughly 500 aircraft left. I think the Allies have roughly 800 left. So the ratio is still promising.

As best I can tell, none of his carriers (or other hard hit ships) have gone down. So the cripples and wounded may lag while John detaches the healthy to get the heck out of dodge. What other choices does he have?

So four combat TFs will move NW in hopes of intercepting Japanese ships. And Death Star will move NNW.

Wake is a threat as a level three airfield, but thus far John hasn't flooded it with aircraft. That could change, but I wonder if he lacks aviation support or supply.

I'll give this at least the one more turn. After that I'll probably withdraw the carriers (though some combat ships might continue hunting).

More subs have been vectored to points west and north of Wake. At this point, John might withdraw to Tokyo as opposed to Truk.

Three CVEs are moving on Midway from NoPac - probably five days out. Bunker Hill and Cowpens are two days from Pearl. The Wake invasion force is moving forward again - just a guess that D-Day could be in ten days.

BB Massachusetts and CL St. Louis broke contact successfully and are on their way to Pearl, following an ASW TF.

I'll post a more order summary in my usual format tonight. But this covers most of the major stuff.

Just catching up on it all! Well played! [&o]

It was kind of poetic justice that the mini-KB took the hit on day one. Still can't figure out why it was so constantly dangled out to be struck. Those are fragile ships.

I like your approach here. Keep it going while you can. Funny the comments recently about the replenishment CVEs. Now would be the time when they could have come in handy and you'd have nearly full groups after two days of battles. I've never used them that way, but might think about it at times like this, in open ocean, with behemoths duking it out.

Very kind and generous response to him in that email.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
This is just how I saw it all in my dreams last night. Except, I was not wearing any pants....[X(] Nice victory. The luck was all pretty much on your side. But nothing wrong with that....

Oh, my! Well, I didn't sleep well last night. I tossed and turned. But since I am uncommonly supple at my age, tossing and turning is not an issue.

I know what you mean about luck. I assume I got some decent rolls of the dice. But there are so many factors that enter into it:
1. John's utter lack of detection. How in the world did that happen and how does he linger while it's ongoing?
2. It looks like he had some really strange TF compositions. I know (or I've been contending) that he may be short on combat ships, but it seems like he's cramming huge TFs with everything.
3. He probably was lulled into a sense of security since I hadn't responded to any of his raids or JEB Stuart rides to this point. But while he was raiding and using fuel and expending sorties and fatigue, my ships were stationary, replenishing, and replacing lost aircraft. There wasn't luck there.
4. To some extent he might have been lucky too. Like the AOs eluding a good Fletcher TF. That could have been cacaclysmic for him.

There's luck in the rolls, but mainly this was a function of alot of decisions made by both sides.

[JohnDillworth]

Well at least John doesn't have to worry as much about his fuel situation [:D]

[BillBrown]

No Hip! Hip! Hoerarrrry? To make up for the Banzais? [:)]

[pws1225]

It seems to me that one critical decision was to launch your float planes on night search the evening before the battle. That gave early detection so a full morning strike could hit him at first light. His CVEs didn't have a prayer.

[Canoerebel]

The new turn is off to John. The map shows where the TFs are and where they are going.

Tomorrow is key.

[JohnDillworth]

I'll post a more order summary in my usual format tonight. But this covers most of the major stuff.

How are your USN attack aircraft and pilot pools? Will you be able to reload and keep to your current timetable?

[Mike McCreery]

What are you going to do with yourself once the turns start trickling in at 1 a day or two?

[Canoerebel]

I've been doing intensive pilot training throughout. I think everything's good. Recovery from a major battle won't be instantaneous, but if John ends up down 10 or 12 flattops net when this is all over, that'll make recovery a lot easier.

I don't foresee any problems in utilizing Death Star for offensive missions unless something goes seriously awry tomorrow.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: pws1225

It seems to me that one critical decision was to launch your float planes on night search the evening before the battle. That gave early detection so a full morning strike could hit him at first light. His CVEs didn't have a prayer.

CR has had DL every day for a while now didn't he? That translates into MDL at night, plus the night search.

Hard to overestimate the advantage that gave CR.

Also, it seems TF composition by the Empire is way off -- I get this just by looking at the flak losses & coordination. Japan has 40mm AA in the mod I believe.

Rule 1 for the Empire is never leave your lba naval search...which given the lack of awareness here the Empire did. Whatever was the cause the result is almost always the same...a crushing defeat.

Just my thoughts as a JFB who has lost his fair share of carriers.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: pws1225

It seems to me that one critical decision was to launch your float planes on night search the evening before the battle. That gave early detection so a full morning strike could hit him at first light. His CVEs didn't have a prayer.

CR has had DL every day for a while now didn't he? That translates into MDL at night, plus the night search.

Hard to overestimate the advantage that gave CR.

Also, it seems TF composition by the Empire is way off -- I get this just by looking at the flak losses & coordination. Japan has 40mm AA in the mod I believe.

Rule 1 for the Empire is never leave your lba naval search...which given the lack of awareness here the Empire did. Whatever was the cause the result is almost always the same...a crushing defeat.

Just my thoughts as a JFB who has lost his fair share of carriers.

Canoerebel said it best a month or so back - the most important asset in the game is Intel on enemy dispositions. He has obviously worked hard to get it and John ignored the black holes in his intel.

While John has shown he knows how to handle offensive operations he always seems to devote too little time to the defence - just as Japan in general did in RL WWII (a).

[Capt. Harlock]

4. To some extent he might have been lucky too. Like the AOs eluding a good Fletcher TF. That could have been cacaclysmic for him.

+1

He could indeed have been up the proverbial creek without a paddle. How does a force with AO's evade an all-Fletcher force?!