Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

[Lokasenna]

Burma - July 15, 1944

Relevant link: https://youtu.be/LbAPwwAXaWM?t=25s

We lose some 2Es outside Chiang Mai every now and again because of CAP/LRCAP/escort bungles. Not thrilled about that, given my hard riding of my bombers. For his part, he sends 150+ 2Es just about daily on bombing missions in the jungle. That's what, 300+ supply? Keep on burnin'. We shot a few down once or twice, but LRCAP is a challenge so far.

Interesting to note that Chumphon has just an engineer unit slaving away on the airfield. It's tempting to drop paras from Blair just to be a nuisance, but I'll save them for something/sometime more useful.

Unsure if he decided to do this before or after I got through outside Rahaeng, but it seems he's sent troops, from somewhere, to Bangkok to unload to reinforce. He seems intent on holding Moulmein as long as possible, for which I don't really blame him (much) if I were planning a conventional campaign towards Indochina - but I'm not, and the Chinese coming in from the NE are only part of it. Bangkok is also some kind of black hole for his planes. 400 there now, and the numbers will only climb in the coming weeks. Well, at least I know where they are...

IIRC that's about 3000-3500 IJA AV at/outside Moulmein. I sent almost 4K of my own to Chiang Mai and only about 2000 towards Rahaeng, while my other 4400 or so is at Rangoon/Pegu or outside Moulmein, perpetually feinting movement towards the place hoping to keep him there as long as possible.

A side note: B-29s from Ledo plaster Hong Kong on the 11th, burning up 60-some LI. I'm not too keen on using these just yet, but wanted him to notice/spread out a bit. And I wanted to burn up supply generation. Mostly I use the long range (23/28 hexes) British Liberators to do this kind of work.

[Lokasenna]

Oh yeah, we captured Rahaeng on July 12. The initial shock across on July 11 got 1:1 and dropped forts from 3 to 2. Raw AV was 4291 to 761 on the 11th, casualties 1394 + 28 guns + 105 vehicles for him, 3619 for me. Then the 12th, with my units in mostly OK shape:

Allied Deliberate Attack

Attacking force 129645 troops, 743 guns, 194 vehicles, Assault Value = 3900

Defending force 19593 troops, 277 guns, 785 vehicles, Assault Value = 604

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Allied adjusted assault: 1513

Japanese adjusted defense: 493

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)

Allied forces CAPTURE Rahaeng !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), leaders(+), preparation(-)
fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
5463 casualties reported
Squads: 133 destroyed, 113 disabled
Non Combat: 483 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 65 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 149 (134 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 451 (444 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Units retreated 5

Allied ground losses:
1729 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 232 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Units pursuing 1

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating:

Assaulting units:
20th Indian Division
87th Chinese Corps
63rd Chinese Corps
18th Chinese Corps
75th Chinese Corps
24th Chinese Corps
2nd Chinese Corps
94th Chinese Corps
5th Chinese Corps
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Group Army
4rd War Area
32nd Group Army
27th Group Army
7th War Area
31st Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
6th War Area
34th Group Army

Defending units:
3rd Tank Regiment
16th Division
2nd Tank Division
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment Don't these guys have literally irreplaceable guns?
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art.Battalaion Same with these guys?

[Lokasenna]

Oh yeah again, Chiang Mai capture. The casualties on July 8th:

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 130303 troops, 937 guns, 1213 vehicles, Assault Value = 3849

Defending force 43499 troops, 609 guns, 1493 vehicles, Assault Value = 623

Allied adjusted assault: 1311

Japanese adjusted defense: 268

Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 0)

Allied forces CAPTURE Chiang Mai !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
11104 casualties reported
Squads: 374 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 972 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 224 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 175 (175 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 992 (991 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Units retreated 16

Allied ground losses:
614 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 143 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 26 (2 destroyed, 24 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

With Rahaeng, that's all 3 of his "real" Tank Divisions wrecked. There is the 4th Tank Division, but it's smaller - only about 1/2 to 2/3 the size.

About 300 VPs on the 8th for IJA LCUs, and about 130 for the capture of Rahaeng on the 12th.

[Lokasenna]

Banda Sea - July 15, 1944

He's got Endeh up and running, finally, although I can't help but wonder if he's under-supporting all of his airfields. I lost a few LSTs and 1 AM at Lautem before they can land more tanks on the 9th.

The 4 Kongos are hanging about, around Manado for a few days. He uses all 4 of them with 4 DDs.

Our P-47s are winning 4 of every 5 sweeps, give or take, and I'm shooting down Jacks now. Of his 510 air losses in this last week, most of them are in this theater. Not all fighters, though... we get a fair few bombers for the ships he sinks at Lautem. More than the VPs that he got for sinking them, usually, but I'd rather just shoot down the planes without losing the ships.

[Lokasenna]

Lost this one on a day when we got 181 planes to his 42.

[Lokasenna]

Banda - July 23, 1944

Kongos on their way to Biak. We clear everything out.

He tries to catch landing craft at Lautem, but I usually see him coming from at least a day away (unless he uses full speed to get in from more than 12 hexes out). One of these days I might be able to engage him with some Fletchers, but the nearest ones right now are out of ammo and at Babar.

Koepang has been slightly annoying, but nothing LRCAP can't handle so long as I'm careful. I'm thinking he is low on supplies at Dili/Lautem, as he turns off the bombardments triggered by my landing more troops, but I'd also prefer to build up my own supplies a bit more and land more Support devices before I start doing my own. Eventually I should start bombing them, but my bombers are otherwise engaged right now.

Haven't seen KB this week. Building up Kaimana and Kai-eilanden, troops prepping for Boela, where I shouldn't have the same problem as at Lautem with all its artillery. LCTs should be able to conduct the landings just fine.

Haven't seen any merchants making runs to Dili, Lautem, or Boela. Sometimes to Koepang, but I can't always interdict. No bases close enough as I haven't and won't develop Truscott.



Edit - oh, yeah... I'm tracking his stuff at Lautem too in order to get a feel for the shape his units are in. On the 22nd in the post-landing bombardment, he had 202 guns bombarding and 12 were reported destroyed or disabled. This is somewhat typical, and I am seeing the total numbers of guns decrease. This makes me think he's under the 2x supply requirement to take replacements, at least at Lautem and maybe Dili.

Ground combat at Lautem (72,115)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2534 troops, 202 guns, 140 vehicles, Assault Value = 1845

Defending force 30197 troops, 587 guns, 1104 vehicles, Assault Value = 1261

Japanese ground losses:
Guns lost 12 (2 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
5th Division
79th Brigade
38th Division
56th Division
2nd Division
17th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
25th Army
14th RF Gun (Pack) Battalion
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
11th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Medium Mortar Battalion
71st Field AA Battalion
44th Field AA Battalion
Southern Army
10th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Mortar Battalion
15th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
6th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
9th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Medium Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
762nd Tank Battalion
2/4 MG Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade
15th NZ Brigade
2/5th Armoured Regiment
17th Australian Brigade
194th Tank Battalion
8th Australian Division
1st Army Tank Regiment
16th Australian Brigade
13th Australian Bde /1
Sixth US Army
76th Coast AA Regiment
2nd Medium Regiment
2/16th Field Regiment
249th Field Artillery Battalion
85th British AT Gun Regiment

[Lokasenna]

SE Asia - July 23, 1944

Well, now that I'm not really in Burma anymore, renaming this theater to SE Asia. Not Thailand because it's becoming a bit bigger than that...

That big stack of mine just outside Chiang Mai just got consolidated, and now I'll move SE along the rail in an attempt to catch his stack that I pushed out of Chiang Mai. I should be able to get him.

Overall, he has just enough "stuff" along the Bangkok-Pisanuloke rail line that none of my individual stacks can push through. I am going to try to break the line and isolate him just south of Pisanuloke, but it's only Chinese moving in from the NW and they aren't likely to hold against what's coming up from the south. I also have my western flank to worry about. I can't let him cut off and wreck/destroy a significant portion of this army or I will stall out.

2800 AV is holding the Rahaeng area (the crucial hex to the west and the base itself), with 2600 AV on the road to the SW (800 Chinese, then 1900 Chinese/Indian in the "battle hex").

There is ~3600 AV resting/recovering/upgrading between Rangoon, Pegu, and the hex just outside Moulmein. Eventually he'll have to give that place up or be trapped, and that's when I'll let the shock across the river happen. About 500 spare AvSupp up here, too (1200 total squads, will make use of AF 8+ to maximize their effect).

Supply flow to the Thailand bases themselves is slow, and Rahaeng in particular is low, but the units themselves are getting supplies OK. Sometimes they'll be in the red a little bit, but still good enough to conduct operations. I'm going to build the forts at Chiang Mai a couple of levels first to increase supply draw limits. If I can get Uttaradit and Pisanuloke soon-ish, the rest of Thailand should collapse down to Bangkok. I didn't intend to get so far here this quickly, but I think this is better. I was simply trying to force him to abandon the coast, while my Chinese came in from the east and took some bases by stealth if possible before he had the chance to garrison them.

That's still 2900 Chinese AV in northern Indochina. They're always in the red on supply, but enough flows to them or gets dropped from the air to prevent any serious damage to morale/disruption/devices.

[Lokasenna]

CENTPAC - July 23, 1944

Pretty self-explanatory in the image.

2x13 A-20G Havoc at Ailinglaplap

4x16 A-20G Havoc at Makin
2 B-24D1 units at Makin

2x15 Mitchell units at Tarawa

4x16 Mitchell units at Nauru

3x12 PBY-1 Liberators at Tabiteuea


I'll move in some TBFs and SBDs soon, and begin to use Mili as well. I'm trying to increase my bomber reserve pools. If it takes another 4 months to bomb out the Marshalls, that's fine.

[Lokasenna]

NORPAC

A peek at NORPAC.

[Lokasenna]

Now that I'm closer to the game date, I'm going to try just jumping around to significant events as they occur.

Andaman Sea - July 24, 1944

"O hai der!"

All of the shown losses are at/around Blair. No action down in the Banda today. A few transports are also hit at Blair, but nothing sinks outright during the turn. I forget now if things sunk later, but I don't think so. Even if they did, all of the cruisers and DDs lived and it was just xAPs/xAKs that got hit, so "whatevs."

I think he was trying to bag the merchants that I know he's seen running into/out of Rangoon, and possibly hit the bombardment force I've been using here (which he did).

[Lokasenna]

Thailand - July 25, 1944

The gambit outside of Pisanuloke doesn't work, however due to a sync bug in my replay it was shown as 3:1 odds in my favor, forcing the IJA to retreat NE to Pisanuloke. That would have been a coup! Alas, we are treated to an example of how things can come down to just a roll of the dice.

[Lokasenna]

Damnit, these guys are going to be late for the party. I moved them from CONUS to Pearl a long time ago, and just left them behind when I moved everything else. That's 26 days plus time lost for refueling those APDs...

[Lokasenna]

July 25, 1944

Back to the clear hex outside of Pisanuloke. Given that I got a 3:1 in the sync bug turn, I attacked again as I was under the impression that there would be a shock attack from across the river again to go along with the ordered Deliberate. 'Twas not to be. The lone Corps that attacks gets all of 2 AV ([&o]), but also check out his adjusted AV. Even the lowly Chinese can kill tanks when they don't have any supply.

He did cause about 500 casualties during the day via bombers, however we shot down a lot. Reports are 37 Oscars and 20 Helens for the loss of 1 P-47. We'll happily trade some disabled Chinese squads for that. We also swept with more P-47s, thinking he would have LRCAP in the hex, but he didn't.

On the 26th, the 4th Tank Division joins the party. That should be enough to make the Chinese scurry back across the river. Oh well, it was a valiant effort. We shoot down another 60 or so fighters and 15-20 bombers in the hex, for the loss of about 20 of our fighters to his own sweeps of the hex.

[Lokasenna]

Turkey Hunting

Looking to shoot down a bunch of Jills, Helen kamikazes, or whatever he has set to defend the beach at Lautem I send some DDs out as a CAP trap. They are "spotted" on July 27 and again on the 28th, but no actual DL and no strikes are launched. I have a high percentage of LRCAP running on them from Babar and with the range of 4, I can't keep it up.

I'll be trying more of this later. It also tells me, since things between Lautem and Babar are spotted more or less instantly, that he has search arcs set up. I will try to exploit this later as well. If I rush north from Babar I might be able to get outside of Kendari, undetected. Wouldn't that be just peachy? After deciding that the LRCAP thing isn't gonna work this turn or the next, we bombard Kendari with the DDs and get a few Bettys/Lilys/Jacks on the ground, even without having prior recon. We also see that he has at least one Tabby unit based there.

We sent some other DDs to Lautem to test this theory. They're DL 10/12 and attacked by Zeroes/Tojos on escort and Jills and Lilys on strike. We shoot down 40-some A6M5b, 30-some B6N2, and 8ish Ki-48-IIc Lilys. We lost maybe 1 P-47D25 here and that's it. A handful of P-47s and P-51B's are shot down in Burma this turn. Not all of the strike planes are shot down, which is precisely why I'm using Fletchers for this. Strong AA, hard to hit, and relatively durable.

[Lokasenna]

SE Asia - July 29, 1944

Our guys cross outside of Uttaradit and it appears to have gone poorly from the combat report numbers, but when we check out the units it looks like our guys are actually in relatively good shape for getting 1:4 odds. We'll attack again soon and hopefully cause a bunch of destruction.

Over on the Indochina border, I'm sad to say that the enemy either noticed us in the jungle or had extremely serendipitous timing. Through email exchanges, it's confirmed to be the latter. He didn't spot these guys once on their long march. Too bad. It looks like an AF Coy unit on the road, on its way up to Luangprabang for some reason. I guess now I can reveal that my plan had been to follow the dotted line all the way to Pakse and that base outside of Cam Ranh Bay, and maybe even Saigon if I could get them enough supplies via air (presumably from the Rahaeng area in a month or so). I was going to stay more than 1 hex away from potentially occupied bases so that he wouldn't detect me with the free "adjacent units" recon mechanism.

I've got a different plan now for the Vinh-Luangprabang area.

We're also consolidating back NE a little bit towards Rahaeng. Can't afford to be cut off from supplies.

[Lokasenna]

Back to the end of month theater updates.

SE Asia - July 31, 1944

Still waiting on fatigue/disruption to fade a little outside of Uttaradit. I've kept up recon on the hex, and think I have another couple of days to get an attack in before they escape the hex.

Looks like he might realize the danger in central/NE Thailand. So far as I can tell, he's only had minimum garrisons at those 3 bases for quite some time. If I alter the course for the Chinese in Indochina, who will be on the road in about a 8-9 days, I might be able to pick off the eastern ones... or I could do something else, in about a week.

[Revthought]

me north in response.

I pay zero attention to VPs when I play, so I have little understanding about the importance of this raid (talking about the original post here) in that regard, but still what you did is incredibly awesome!

I know I'm late to the party, but just wanted to say that I, like you, play mostly by feel and the ops that I plan are minuscule compared to this. It must have been an awesome feeling once you'd extricated your CVs and realized you'd pulled it off!

[Lokasenna]

Banda Sea - July 31, 1944

There are those Kongos again. Pulling out from the Biak area once more, but we always leave PTs around to harass them. We also correctly anticipated this, and got some bombers in on the action but results were a bit lackluster. First, sweeps. We also have 1 group of Liberators bombing the AF at Sorong, and 90 TBFs bombing the AF almost daily at Boela.

Morning Air attack on Sorong , at 82,107

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet. No radar, I guess.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 15
J2M3 Jack x 26
Ki-84a Frank x 4

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 19

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 6 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Sorong , at 82,107

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 2
J2M3 Jack x 10
Ki-84a Frank x 4

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Waigeo at 82,106

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 38 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 14
Ki-84a Frank x 1

Allied aircraft
TBF-1 Avenger x 18

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo
BB Hiei
BB Kirishima, Bomb hits 1
BB Haruna

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x TBF-1 Avenger bombing from 8000 feet *
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Waigeo at 82,106

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 10
Ki-84a Frank x 1

Allied aircraft
A-20G Havoc x 32

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
A-20G Havoc: 3 destroyed, 23 damaged
A-20G Havoc: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Bomb hits 2
DD Isonami, Shell hits 6
DD Fujinami, Shell hits 5
BB Hiei
DD Ushio, Shell hits 12
BB Kongo
BB Kirishima, Bomb hits 2, on fire

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x A-20G Havoc bombing and strafing from low level
Naval Attack: 4 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
14 x A-20G Havoc bombing and strafing from low level
Naval Attack: 4 x 500 lb SAP Bomb

I don't have a hit on the identity of the cruisers/destroyers that make occasional runs to Lautem from points west (Soerabaja, I think?).

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Revthought

me north in response.

I pay zero attention to VPs when I play, so I have little understanding about the importance of this raid (talking about the original post here) in that regard, but still what you did is incredibly awesome!

I know I'm late to the party, but just wanted to say that I, like you, play mostly by feel and the ops that I plan are minuscule compared to this. It must have been an awesome feeling once you'd extricated your CVs and realized you'd pulled it off!

It was some of the most fun I've had, and it really did involve basically my entire spring 1942 naval OOB for the USN. It's actually pretty easy to plan an op when you know it's going to involve all of your ships in basically one place, and they still won't be as many as you want. Then it's just a matter of allocating based on scarcity and need, which is a core gaming exercise and kinda fun for me.

[Lokasenna]

Strat Map - July 31, 1944

No idea on what his search looks like in the IO, if any. But he bases P1Y2's out of Ponape and Babeldaob, so I can't stray too far north as I transit to Rabaul and I have to be careful around Biak when shuttling more LCUs forwards. He's resorted to trying to get hits at night, at least.

I should probably go hit Wake and then maybe Marcus, at some point, for reasons that will become clear when I post about early August.